What went right and wrong for the Nats to force an NLDS Game 5 against the Dodgers.
NLDS Game 4: Nationals lost at the Dodgers 6-5 on Tuesday (Oct. 11, 2016)
1. The Nats’ bullpen finally proved to be human in this series. Off tossing 12 1/3 scoreless innings over the first three games, Nats relievers allowed two runs in 5 1/3 innings in this game. Not terrible by any means (especially when you consider eight strikeouts versus four hits, a walk and two hit-by-pitches), but not good enough to win, either.
2. The Nats went with Joe Ross to start this game. I had no problem with that, as you wanted to save a fully-rested Max Scherzer for a potential Game 5. But Ross’ outing left the Nats 0-for-4 in this series when it comes to starting pitchers performing well. He allowed four runs in 2 2/3 innings on three hits, two walks and two hit-by-pitches. Nats starting pitchers in this series have a 6.75 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .916 OPS allowed. Even with Stephen Strasburg out with his right flexor mass strain, those are incredibly disappointing numbers from what was the second-best rotation in the National League during the regular season.
3. Dusty stuck with Ross for too long in the bottom of the third. Ross gave up a leadoff double to Clayton Kershaw, then recorded two outs, but then allowed a first-pitch RBI single to Justin Turner, a seven-pitch walk to Adrian Gonzalez and a four-pitch walk to Josh Reddick. I tweeted at this point that Ross needed to be out of the game. But Dusty left him in it, despite the bases being loaded and the Nats now trailing, 3-2. The next batter, Joc Pederson, laced several hard-hit foul balls and then was hit by a pitch on the sixth pitch of the at-bat, scoring Turner. Dusty then mercifully pulled Ross in favor of Oliver Perez, who got Yasmani Grandal to ground into an inning-ending force out and then tossed a scoreless two-strikeout fourth. Tom Verducci, calling the game on FS1, said that Dusty “had to give Ross that at-bat.” Au contraire. A fresh reliever, even a flawed one like Perez, is better than a fatigued and/or struggling starter. The postseason is not where you allow starting pitchers to work their ways out of jams. It is not where you try to squeeze one more out from a starting pitcher. The postseason is where the game is always on the line, you use your weapons, and you pull pitchers before they fall off, not after.
4. Dusty took a ton of Twitter criticism for not using Sammy Solis to face Chase Utley in the bottom of the eighth, when he provided the go-ahead RBI single off Blake Treinen. I can’t kill Dusty for this. Solis was fatigued according to Dusty off having thrown 34 pitches in Game 3, and he didn’t like the likely ensuing matchup of Solis versus a pinch-hitting righty in Howie Kendrick. Solis, though, did then come in after Utley’s single and got Corey Seager to ground out to end the inning. It certainly didn’t play out well, but I have to take Dusty at his word that Solis was fatigued and in a diminished state.
5. The Nats got to Kershaw for the second time in four games in this series. Pitching on three days’ rest, he allowed five runs in 6 2/3 innings, though he did have 11 strikeouts.
The Nats scored a run in the top of the first on a Trea Turner first-pitch leadoff single, a nine-pitch Bryce Harper walk and then, two batters later, a Daniel Murphy RBI single on a curveball that missed (perhaps something that would not have happened had Kershaw been on full rest).
Another run came in the top of the third thanks to another Turner leadoff single, then a one-out first-pitch Jayson Werth single on which Turner advanced to third and then an RBI sac fly by Murphy on an 0-2 pitch.
Then came a three-run top of the seventh, during which Kershaw’s machismo and Dave Roberts wanting to believe in his ace worked to the detriment of the Dodgers. Danny Espinosa, who had been 0-for-9 with eight strikeouts in the series, sent a first-pitch fastball to left field for a leadoff single. Three batters later was a Turner single, advancing Espinosa to second. Then came the plate appearance of the game: a Harper eight-pitch walk that followed a mound conference during which Kershaw seemed to tell Roberts not to make a pitching change. So we had the bases loaded and two outs with the Nats trailing, 5-2. Roberts pulled Kershaw for Pedro Baez, whose only pitch was a bases-loaded hit-by-pitch on Werth. Then came yet another clutch at-bat by Murphy, who lined a 1-0 fastball from Luis Avilan to center field for a game-tying two-run single.
6. Murphy had the game-tying two-run single in the top of the seventh, an RBI single in the top of the first and a game-tying RBI sac fly in the top of the third. He had a game-high Win Probability Added (WPA) of .372
7. Turner had three singles and scored three runs. But he struck out two more times and now has struck out 10 times in the series, two more times than Espinosa. Also, Turner fell down in trying to run down Turner’s two-out single to left-center in the bottom of the third. A more experienced center fielder perhaps makes that play to end the inning. Instead, the Dodgers went on to score two runs.
8. Other thoughts:
The Nats finally got Seager out in the first inning in this series, as Ross struck out Seager on four pitches off him blasting solo homers in Games 1 and 2 and an RBI double in Game 3. But Ross then hit Turner with a pitch and then gave up a two-run homer to Adrian Gonzalez.
The hit-by-pitches in this series are out of control. Game 4 included five hit-by-pitches. The series as a whole has included 11 hit-by-pitches, which already is a major-league postseason-series record. Not once has it seemed like benches and bullpens were going to empty. Pitchers are just, apparently inadvertently, hitting batters with pitches.
Scherzer, of course, will start Game 5, which will take place at Nationals Park on Thursday night at 8:08 p.m. He was disappointing in Game 1. He needs to kill it in Game 5, during which he will be pitching on five days’ rest and in a ballpark that should be on fire. There are no excuses. Enough with the underwhelming outings by Nats starters in this series. It’s time for the ace to dominate.
The Dodgers likely will either start 36-year-old Rich Hill on three days’ rest or 20-year-old Julio Urias in Game 5.
Strasburg felt “a little discomfort” according to Dusty during a bullpen session on Monday. No way is this guy pitching again this season.
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