REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine
The Dream Team.
With 2013 strictly over, it’s burden time.
We spoke to TipRanks, a use that allows we to lane a success of marketplace analysts formed on comments they make in a media, to find out who on Wall Street done a best calls final year.
TipRanks measures analysts’ “success rate” formed on how their calls perform relations to a SP 500 and a statistical problem of their calls.*
Here’s what they found:
1. Corey Davis, Jefferies
Pharmaceuticals [Vanda (VNDA), Acelrx Pharmaceuticals (ACRX), Elan Corporation (ELN), Forest Labs (FRX), Endo Health (ENDP), Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), Salix (SLXP), Antares Pharmaceuticals (ATRS)]
Success Rate: 92%
Average Return: +16.6%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: AcelRx (+76.7%) “We see a transparent marketplace event for ARX-01 given a stream customary of caring for post-op pain control is diligent with drawbacks.”
2. Daniel Fannon, Jefferies
Asset Management [T. Rowe Price (TROW), Intercontinetal Exchange (ICE), The Blackstone Group (BX), Affiliated Managers (AMG), CME Group (CME), Invesco Ltd. (IVZ), Icahn Enterprises L.P. (IEP)]
Success Rate: 88%
Average Return: +5.3%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: Invesco Ltd. (+15.9%) “Our estimates are relocating modestly higher, mostly due to domestic equity marketplace gains, as good as improving price rates and generally aloft upsurge assumptions. We trust AMG and IVZ are staid for clever flows and certain gain revisions.”
3. Ella Ji, Oppenheimer
Chinese consumer and business use companies [E-House (China) (EJ), Noah Holdings (NOAH), Melco Crown (MPEL), China Distance Education, Holdings Ltd. (DL), New Oriental Education (EDU), Suntech Power (STPFQ)]
Success Rate: 100%
Average Return: +33.8%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: China Distance Education Holdings (+60.5%) “We are upgrading DL to Outperform from Perform and introducing an $8 target. Momentum in a core accounting exam prep services has picked up, and we design a 23%/35% revenue/EPS CAGR for FY12-14.”
4. Mark Mahaney, RBC Capitalist
Internet Stocks [Twitter (TWTR), Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO), Wix.com Ltd. (WIX), Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), Priceline.com (PCLN), Pandora (P), Amazon (AMZN), Ebay (EBAY), AOL Inc. (AOL)]
Success Rate: 72%
Average Return: +12.5%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: Twitter (+126.4%) “Twitter is apropos an essential use for consumers, businesses, media companies, and advertisers.”
5. Arvind Bhatia, Sterne Agee
Interactive Entertainment, Digital Entertainment and Consumer [Electronic Arts (EA), Groupon Inc. (GRPN), Facebook Inc. (FB), GameStop (GME)]
Success Rate: 78%
Average Return: +11.4%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: Groupon (+41.9%) “Eric and Ted will pierce in a new CEO with a clever handling credentials to pierce a association forward, so they not usually grow a tip line though some-more importantly a bottom line.”
6. William Plovanic, Canaccord Genuity
Medical Technology [Enteromedics Inc. (ETRM), MIMedx Group (MDXG),Stryker (SYK), Dexcom (DXCM), Insulet Corp. (PODD), NuVasive (NUVA)
Globus Medical (GMED), Cyberonics (CYBX)]
Success Rate: 100%
Average Return: +11.9%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: MiMedX (+72.7%) “By a estimates, a dermal surrogate shred of a modernized wound caring marketplace generated ~$345M of revenues in 2012, flourishing ~23% per year given 2009.”
7. Christopher O’Cull, KeyBanc
Food Service [Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Red Robin Gourmet Burger (RRGB), Jack In The Box (JACK), Brinker International (EAT), Ignite Restaurant Group (IRG), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)]
Success Rate: 100%
Average Return: +11.2%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: Ignite Restaurant Group (+23.7%) “The company’s increase will eventually get a boost from it merger of Romano’s Macaroni Grill.”
8. Michael Olson, Piper Jaffray
Online Media, Online Travel and Video Games [Chegg Inc. (CHGG), Universal Electronics (UEIC), TiVo Inc. (TIVO), Stratasys (SSYS), GameStop (GME), OpenTable (OPEN), Priceline (PCLN), Electronic Arts (EA), HomeAway (AWAY), Take-Two (TTWO)]
Success Rate: 81%
Average Return: +8.7%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: GameStop (+44.0%) “We design a PS4 will be a suggestive expansion motorist for GameStop as a retailer’s hardware marketplace share has grown from 20% during 2006 [the time of a PS3’s launch] to 35% today.”
9. Gary Balter, Credit Suisse
Home Improvement [Container Store Group (TCS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Best Buy Co. (BBY), Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY), Ulta Salon (ULTA)]
Success Rate: 90%
Average Return: +12.6%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: Ulta Salon (+24.9%) “While not carrying a permanent CEO and weaker sum margins in Q1 lift concerns, a doubt we asked is do we trust in a expansion intensity of a concept. … Given that a answer is yes, and given that approbation implies a expansion rate of 25% to 30% during a low 20′s multiple, we now like that risk reward.
10. John Baugh, Stifel Nicolaus
Home Furnishings [Mohawk Industries (MHK), Conn’s (CONN), Tempur Sealy (TPX), Owens Corning (OC), Select Comfort Corporation (SCSS), Furniture Brands (FBN), La-Z-Boy Inc. (LZB), Mattress Firm (MFRM)]
Success Rate: 90%
Average Return: +12.1%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: Furniture Brands (+56.6%) “We trust some form of murder of a association or failure filing is imminent.”
11. Timothy Ramey, D.A. Davidson
Food, Beverage and Nutrition Industries [Herbalife (HLF), NuSkin (NUS), Tyson Foods (TSN), Flowers Foods (FLO), Smithfield Food (SFD), Balchem Corp (BCPC), Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ)]
Success Rate: 77%
Average Return: +5.8%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: NuSkin (+38.0%) “ we am gratefulness supportive on NUS as it has reestablished a rather reward evaluation.”
12. Victor Anthony, Topeka Capital
Media and Internet Sectors [Twitter (TWTR), Google (GOOG), Ebay Inc. (EBAY), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), AOL Inc. (AOL), Shutterfly (SFLY)]
Success Rate: 67%
Average Return: 9%
Most successful recommendation of 2013: Twitter (+125.9%) “We trust that Twitter’s user and promotion monetization height is in a early innings. We see a well-defined ecosystem with clever network effects building around Twitter that should lead to out-sized shareholder earnings for years to come. As such, we suggest investors buy a shares of Twitter to constraint upside from Twitter’s value origination engine.”
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*Here’s a methodology from TipRanks:
TipRanks looks during a accumulation of benchmarks, including a normal % normal over a SP 500 and opening success rate. But, we go distant over this information in a ranking over a analysts.
When it comes to evaluating confidant performance, we not usually magnitude how most an researcher outperforms a specific benchmark, though also how unchanging they are in doing so.
As such, TipRanks uses a statistical Z-test to establish a statistical viability / coherence of financial advisers batch recommendations opposite a benchmark.
Z-test enables responding tough questions when it comes to comparing financial confidant performance, for example:
· Which confidant has a improved success rate, one that gave 10 recommendations out of that 7 outperformed a benchmark (70%) or one that gave 100 recommendations out of that 68 outperformed a benchmark (68%)? While 70% is larger than 68%, achieving a 68% success rate over 100 recommendations is “statistically harder” than achieving 70% over 10.
· Which confidant has a aloft additional lapse over a benchmark, one that gave 10 recommendations and outperformed a benchmark by 3.2% or one that gave 100 recommendations and outperformed a benchmark by ‘only’ 3%?
To magnitude a confidant opening opposite a benchmark, TipRanks calculates a Z-score a recommendation set given by any confidant and can so review an confidant with 10 recommendations to an confidant that gave 100 recommendations.
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