UPA Government and the Election results
Coming back to power in 2004 after a NDA led Government, UPA Government was able to hold it for 10 years. Their performance in 1st tenure had been decent. Economy of India was going good and country was pretty much in a situation of peace. In addition to that, they got the advantages of initiatives of NDA led government form 1998-2004. The image of Mr. Manmohan Singh was of a clean Prime Minister and several intellectual and highly qualified people strengthened the party. There was also some fear of communal violence rising again if NDA came to power. UPA Government reached to the Poor of the country a lot better than the NDA Government, and was able to come back to power in 2009; with a better performance than the previous elections.
However UPA-2 was no match to UPA-1. Several of their policies were questionable and difficult to be ignored just as mistakes. With global economy facing crisis and inflation rising, Indian economy too faced a setback. There were lots of corruption charges against prominent people in UPA Government and the Government failed to reach to the people with its achievements (whatever they were). Barely a couple of years had gone by, there was great rage against Congress due to several corruption cases being exposed. Anna movement primarily focused against corruption, and setting up a strong ‘Jan Lokpal’ gathered great public support and Congress being main ruling party suffered the most due to it. More use of RTI act exposing several scams to public and many of them involving key UPA leaders also had a setback. Image of Mr. Manmohan Singh as an effective politician was badly stained due to the image of puppet of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. Involvement of the PMO in Coal gate scam did enough to tarnish his image further to unacceptable levels.
Long before elections, NDA coming back to power was anticipated. Mr. Narendra Modi had successfully branded Gujrat as highly developed state and took all credit for it. Results were very clear in election campaign itself. UPA had no strong leadership and NDA led by Mr. Modi attracted huge crowd and he mesmerized them by his immense eloquence and great speeches. Mr. Rahul Gandhi, who was the leader for UPA, was no match for bold and fierce Mr. Modi. However even after all this final results were unexpected for BJP and shocking for UPA & Congress, who were left so bad that they couldn’t claim the post of the leader of opposition.
The Election Campaign and promises of Achchhe Din
Nearly two years ago, I had seen a report on funds different political parties had. At that time BJP was no match to Congress; having less than half of the latter. However, spending in Lok Sabha polls tell us an entirely different story. If we observe election campaign and try to estimate its cost, we can say with certainty that money spent by Congress on campaign was nowhere close to that by BJP, even though it is practically impossible to estimate exact costs. Everything doesn't seem right! Even after getting only 31% of total votes, there was a hint of great support for BJP led Government under the leadership of Mr. Narendra Modi, thanks to unbelievably great campaign from BJP. They used front pages of newspapers, successfully managed media and went for intellectually cheap but mass-attracting means of advertisements on television and social media. It was clear from their scale of campaign and advertisement that BJP must have received huge election funds from corporate in the anticipation of their Government being formed.
In 2004 electoral elections, BJP used the term Shining India to reach to public with its initiatives and works done in its regime. However, they couldn't reach to the poor and rural people, major factor in deciding the fate of political parties and election results. It resulted in campaign being failed miserably and BJP led NDA Government was kicked out of power. However this time rather than talking about what has already happened or what is already happening, their masterstroke was a term based on future 'Achchhe Din'. Future is the most ambiguous and the safest bet and BJP went with it. They also took full advantage of fallen image of Congress & and its key leaders, weakening of Indian economy and several scams being made public during UPA regime.
BJP portrayed Gujrat as a model state and promised to develop India in the same manner. It is true that roads and other infrastructural developments have been done in Gujrat very well. In addition to it, it has been a favored place for corporate houses and business people from long. However Mr. Modi managed quite successfully as portraying himself as solely responsible for it. BJP also didn't allow the areas where development in Gujrat has not been satisfactory, to be known to much public, thanks to great media-management skills of Mr. Modi. In spite of branding of Gujrat as model state, its performance has not been extraordinary. It is true that its condition is better than a lot of states in India and Mr. Modi and BJP may take credit for maintaining it, but its position hasn't much improved too. Taking the example of Human Development Index, its position is 11th in India for according to 2007-08 data; lower than Kerala, Delhi, North-Eastern States (excluding Assam), Maharashtra, Tamilnadu and Jammu & Kashmir; where BJP has not been in power for long. Its rank has went down by 1 from 1999-2000 data. (1) Thus, we see that not only Gujrat doesn't have a great HDI ranking, it has also failed to improve in the regime of Mr. Narendra Modi.
Last five years of UPA regime had been very turbulent. The economy slowed down; one after another, scams were reported and known to the public; and Congress lost its command. Several of its allies separated themselves and Congress has nearly lost the battle even before the elections. BJP took full advantage of all this and put all the blame on Congress. They promised to revive Indian economy, solve International problems and take India to new heights of development. Their election campaign used catchy slogans like "..... Abki bar Modi Sarkar" and used several advertising means which didn't make much sense but were successful to attract mass. They successfully spread the term 'Achchhe Din' to a significant portion of India and managed to be seen as the sole hope for a better and developed India.
Manifesto Comparison - Claims and Promises of Parties*
All the parties talked of better governance, boosting economy, controlling prices, job creation, women empowerment, robust policies, transparency in its functioning, zero tolerance to terrorism etc. as they always do. BJP and Congress took it as a two-way fight and mostly ignored AAP even after their good performance and Government formation in Delhi. AAP portrayed themselves as different from all as they had come to change the politics and not merely contest elections. They opposed communal policies of BJP and vote-bank policies of Congress. (2) BJP called the term under UPA Government as the Decade of Decay, in which India fell on all fronts. They accused UPA Government for poor governance. They compared growth rate from the time they had left the Government to the current and blamed UPA for mismanagement. They also targeted the UPA Government for loss of jobs, high inflation rates, rampant corruption, poor delivery, maladministration and credibility crisis. They promised to take decisive actions to address these problems on priority basis. (3) Congress focused on claiming themselves as secular, liberal and nationalists while acusing BJP of narrow-mindedness and communalism. They presented report showing data where they had fared better than NDA and achievements of their regime. (4)
The manifesto of AAP missed on some points but they described their key policies clearly and tried to answer why people should vote for them. It was the shortest of all but still made an impact on the reader. They explained in detail of the needs and functioning of Jan Lokpal, stressed on their concept of Swarajand decentralizing power thus strengthening Gram Sabhas and Mohalla Sabhas. They opposed FDI in retail, focused on a simple and stable tax system and promised the return of black money. They stressed that reservations should be religion-neutral and described separately their plans for SC, ST and Valmikis.
(2)
BJP presented a long and detailed manifesto, last of all, on the day elections began. It highlighted development but focused more on what than how. They opposed FDI in retail, but opened to the same in other sectors and mentioned adoption of Goods and Services tax. They promised to prioritize to bring back black money. They mentioned uniform civil code, discussion on article 370 and modernization of Madarsa. They also promised to set up an effective Lokpal institution. (3)
Congress too had a long and detailed manifesto, but missed a clear road-map and justification on several of their promises. They mentioned the bills passed and works done in their regime not only at the beginning, but also later on in various sections along with their promises. They didn't opposed FDI in any sector and mentioned implementation of Goods and Services Tax as well as Direct tax Code. They mentioned enacting law for not criminalizing consensual sex between adults of the same sex. They promised to mobilize support for India's permanent membership in UN Security Council. (4)
Expectations of People
BJP managed to successfully attract crowd to highly energetic and promising rallies and convert them to victories (not much in terms of % votes though, which has been the general trend recently), thanks to a great campaign by them and rage against Congress.
Mr. Modi supporters, popularly referred to as Bhakts by those who don't support him, were very enthusiastic for BJP Government. They had great expectations from the Government. With showing a great example of poorly run Government, UPA has dug its own grave and AAP and other parties not having much national reach, NDA Government was an obvious choice. Expectations of BJP supporters had however crossed realistic limits. They went as far as to say that with Mr. Modi in power, China and Pakistan would never dare to breach ceasefire or cross Indian border. Indian economy would soar high, inflation would be controlled soon, everyone will be happy and so on. Some of the extreme Hindutva supporters became active more fiercely and hate speeches and propaganda were tried to be spread.
However, image of several leading faces of BJP campaign were not clean and they faced charges ranging from corruption, hate speeches to fake encounters and mass murder. This led to a sense of fear too among a major section of some groups particularly Muslims. There were comments from several renowned persons in favor as well as against Mr. Modi as righteous prime Ministerial candidate. This is what Mr. Amartya Sen replied to a a question from CNN-IBN "As an Indian citizen I don’t want Modi as my PM... He has not done enough to make minorities feel safe."
BJP is generally a right-wing party and considered to be pro-business. With picture being clearer, and hopes of corporate being more and more high, Indian stock market improved considerably in days around results declaration. With a new Government coming to power, International talks, relations and exchanges were expected to improve. Key leaders of several countries showed positive response and welcomed the new Government. A clear majority to any party after an interval of 30 years sent a message of a strong and stable Government, with its leader, Mr. Modi, himself being portrayed as a strong leader.
Overall there was mixed response to BJP led Government coming to power. Hopes were high but there was a feeling of fear too. How much had the BJP Government been successful in fulfilling their promises an what we should and may expect from them in future! Its already been a pretty long post and I don't want it to expand further, lest it becomes boring to read. I will try to answer these questions in next part.
Your suggestions are most welcome. Please feel free to comment or communicate to me in person.
Yours
Vikram Varun
* Only a few points have been mentioned here. For more information, please go through individual manifestos of political parties.
References: (1) India Human Development report 2011: Towards Social Inclusion (Institute of Applied Manpower Research, Planning Commission, Government of India (2) Aam Aadmi Party, National Manifesto 2014 (3) Ek Bharat Shreshtha Bharat, BJP Election Manifesto 2014 (4) Your Voice Our Pledge, Loka Sabha Elections 2014 Manifesto, Indian National Congress