13 July 2016 — Wednesday
YESTERDAY in GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM and PALLADIUM
The gold price did precisely nothing in Far East trading on their Tuesday, but at 9 a.m. in London it began to head lower — and ‘da boyz’ set the low tick of the day around 12:35 p.m. in New York. It rallied a few dollars into the COMEX close, but did nothing after that.
The high and low tick were recorded by the CME Group as $1,358.90 and $1,331.00 in the August contract.
Gold finished the Tuesday session at $1,332.70 spot, down $21.90 from Monday’s close. Not surprisingly, net volume was to the moon at just over 211,000 contracts, as the Managed Money traders starting puking up their long positions — and the Big 8 were there to buy them all.
Here’s the 5-minute gold tick chart courtesy of Brad Robertson. Except for an hour either side of noon HKT — 22:00 Denver time on this chart — and the last thirty minutes of trading in New York, volume was pretty decent, with most of it occurring in the New York trading session, of course.
The vertical gray line is midnight in New York, noon the following day in Hong Kong and Shanghai—and don’t forget to add two hours for EDT. The ‘click to enlarge‘ is a must here.
The silver price spent a decent amount of time in positive territory yesterday, but certainly not without resistance. However, the HFT traders spun their algorithms at 11 a.m. EDT the moment that the markets closed in London, with the low tick coming the same time as gold — 12:35 p.m. EDT. Also like the gold the price recovered a bit from there, before trading sideways into the 5:00 p.m. close.
The high and low ticks were reported as $29.595 and $20.02 in the September contract. Needless to say, net volume was heavy for the same reason it was in gold, checking in at a hair under 73,000 contracts.
The platinum price was down a bunch in early Far East trading on their Tuesday morning — and then up a bunch to its $1,104 spot high tick shortly after Zurich began to trade. But for the second day in a row, the $1,100 spot price mark was well defended. It was sold down 20 bucks by shortly before 2 p.m. Zurich time, rallied back until 11 a.m. in New York — and then got pounded down to its low of the day at 12:35 p.m. EDT, just like gold and silver. It bounced back five bucks or so from there before trading mostly flat into the close. Palladium was closed lower by 9 bucks at $1,090 spot.
It was mostly the same trading pattern for palladium, except the Zurich and New York sell-offs weren’t quite a severe — and the metal managed to close higher by a whole dollar an ounce at $625 spot.
The dollar index closed very late on Monday afternoon in New York at 96.55 — and its 96.65 high tick came around 9:30 a.m. HKT on their Tuesday morning. It then fell of a 30 basis point cliff during the next hour. Then, after chopping around for about four hours, it took a 40 basis point header, with the 96.07 low tick coming minutes before 9:30 a.m. in London. ‘Gentle hands’ appeared at that juncture — and it chopped higher in a fairly wide range until a few minutes after 5 p.m. in New York. It didn’t do much from there. The index finished the day at 96.50 — up 5 basis points from where it closed on Monday.
Here’s the 6-month U.S. dollar index chart. As you can see, it’s been held in place around the 96.50 mark for the last two weeks. But what it really wants to do is crash and burn.
The gold stocks opened down about a percent — and rallied back to unchanged by 11 a.m. But JPMorgan et al leaned on the gold price good and hard starting at that time — and the shares followed, closing virtually on their low ticks, as the HUI closed down 3.57 percent.
The silver equities trading in a similar fashion — and Nick Laird’s Intraday Silver Sentiment/Silver 7 Index closed down 3.47 percent.
Here’s a chart that Nick sent around that didn’t make it into yesterday’s column. It shows how well the silver equities have done in the Silver 7/Silver Sentiment Index since the beginning of December 2015. As he said in his covering e-mail — “Silver stocks are soaring – up 400% this year with CDE the outperformer up 600%.“
The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 612 gold and 57 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the COMEX-approved depositories on Thursday. In gold, the big short/issuer was S.G. Americas with 548 contracts — and in distant second place was Goldman Sachs with 63 contracts. All contracts came out of their respective client accounts. The three long/stoppers of note were JPMorgan with 365 contracts for its client account…Canada’s Scotiabank with 134 contract for its own account…plus ABN Amro with 85 contracts for its client account. There were five other long/stoppers in gold.
In silver, all 57 contracts came courtesy of ABN Amro — and the three long/stoppers were JPMorgan and HSBC USA with 21 contracts apiece, each for their own accounts. ABN Amro stopped 15 contracts for its client account. The link to yesterday’s Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.
The CME Preliminary Report for the Tuesday trading session showed that July gold open interest declined by 156 contracts, leaving 1,034 still open, minus the 612 contracts mentioned two paragraphs ago. The Monday Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold contracts were posted for delivery today, but with o.i. dropping by 156 contracts, that number doesn’t seem right. July silver o.i. fell by 142 contracts, leaving 1,139 still around, minus the 57 mentioned previously. Monday’s Daily Delivery Report stated that 216 silver contracts were posted for delivery today — and the discrepancy between the silver numbers seems sort of OK, as 216-142=74 silver contracts were added to the July delivery month. But because the gold number was so far out of whack, I’m somewhat suspicious of the silver number as well. I can’t go back and check the source data, as the CME overwrites them every day with the current day’s numbers.
Not surprisingly, there was a big withdrawal from GLD yesterday, as an authorized participant removed 515,553 troy ounces. SLV went in the other direction, as an a.p. added 1,900,652 troy ounces.
The changes in gold over at Switzerland’s Zürcher Kantonalbank for the reporting week ending Friday, July 8 are hardly worth mentioning. Their gold ETF declined by a piddling 275 troy ounces, but their silver ETF added 213,352 troy ounces.
There was a smallish report from the U.S. Mint yesterday. They sold 2,000 troy ounces of gold eagles — 500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes — and 120,000 silver eagles.
There was pretty big movement in gold over at the COMEX-approved depositories in New York on Monday, as 230,601 troy ounces was reported received — and 79,526 troy ounces were shipped out. A big chunk of yesterday’s movement involved the 79,526 troy ounces shipped out of Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, Inc., as that all ended up in JPMorgan’s vault. The other big ‘in’ movements were at HSBC USA and Brink’s, Inc. A link to all this action is here.
In silver, there was 1,033,632 troy ounces received — and all of that went into the CNT Depository. Nothing was reported shipped out. The link to that activity is here.
It was a busy day over at the COMEX-approved gold kilobar depositories in Hong Kong on their Tuesday. They received 1,983 of them, but they shipped out 11,187. All of the action was at Brink’s, Inc. as per usual — and the link to that, in troy ounces, is here.
Here are two more charts that Nick sent around on Monday night, but my column was full up already, so they had to wait for today. They show the Intraday Average Price Movement for both gold and silver during June. What the charts show is that if you take the same 2-minute slice out of every day—and average the prices for that slice for every trading day in June, you get charts like these. Using that process, it removed all the daily noise –and shows the true underlying forces operating in each of the two precious metals.
The first chart is for gold — and the second for silver. They are similar, but not the same. Nick’s comments were “Monthly averages for June – for gold strong buying in early N.Y. and in Asia — for silver, strong buying across the globe.” Click to enlarge.
Once again I have a decent number of stories for you today, some of the holdovers from Tuesday, as just didn’t have the space. The final edit is yours.
CRITICAL READS
Greater Fools Storm the Casino — David Stockman
While we are waiting it might be wondered, however, whether nearly two decades of central bank financial repression have not merely destroyed honest price discovery on Wall Street. Perhaps it has actually extinguished brain function entirely among the corporal’s guard of carbon units that remain.
Yes, it is not surprising at all that the robo-machines are now gunning for the 2200 point on the S&P 500 charts. That’s what they do.
What defies explanation, however, is that the several dozen humans left on Wall Street who apparently talk to Bob Pisani are actually attempting to rationalize this “breakout” of, well, madness.
This commentary by David put in an appearance on his website yesterday sometime — and today’s first story is courtesy of Roy Stephens. Another link to this article is here.
Last Woman Standing, Theresa May Offers Calm on Brexit Road
Theresa May was headed back to London from the English Midlands when she learned of her impending appointment as Britain’s next prime minister. She had just delivered the first and, as it turned out, only speech of her campaign to land the job.
That moment — winning the race to lead the governing Conservative Party after her remaining opponent unexpectedly dropped out — summed up much of the 59-year-old Home Secretary’s journey to the top of U.K. politics: Focusing on competence while her rivals imploded around her. Hers was one of the main offices of state, responsible for immigration, policing and national security.
Now she’s arrived, the woman one Conservative veteran last week called “bloody difficult” will have to show exactly how unflappable she is. With the country convulsing from its decision to leave the European Union and the leaders of the Brexit campaign sidelined, May will have to resist pressure to rush into departure negotiations. She also needs to calm investors who sent the pound down to its lowest against the dollar since Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s last female prime minister, was in power in the 1980s.
Many of the first observations about May contrast with her defeated rivals. She lacks former London mayor Boris Johnson’s runaway charisma, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne’s political calculation, Brexit spearhead Michael Gove’s ideological zeal or party leadership opponent Andrea Leadsom’s Euroskeptic credentials. It’s unclear what roles they will play in the new administration.
This Bloomberg article was posted on their Internet site at 3:49 p.m. Denver time on Monday afternoon — and was updated bout ninety minutes later. It’s courtesy of Brad Robertson via Zero Hedge. Another link to this story is here.
Merkel urges Britain to quickly clarify relationship with E.U.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday access to the European Union’s single market meant accepting the bloc’s basic freedoms and rejected suggestions from London that Britain could retain full E.U. market access while curbing immigration.
Speaking at the annual diplomatic corps reception in Meseberg, north of Berlin, Merkel said Britain should clarify quickly how it wants to shape its future relationship with the EU, adding she wanted London to remain an important partner.
“But of course the E.U. and the remaining 27 member states also have to protect their interests,” Merkel said.
“For example, whoever would like to have free access to the European internal market will also have to accept all basic freedoms in return, including the free movement of people.”
This Reuters article, filed from Berlin, appeared on their website at 11:56 p.m. BST on their Monday night, which was 6:56 p.m. in New York — EDT plus 5 hours. Another link to this article is here. It’s the second story in a row from Brad Robertson via Zero Hedge.
Charting the Epic Collapse of the World’s Most Systemically Dangerous Bank
It’s been almost 10 years in the making, but the fate of one of Europe’s most important financial institutions appears to be sealed.
After a hard-hitting sequence of scandals, poor decisions, and unfortunate events, Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes that Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank shares are now down -48% on the year to $12.60, which is a record-setting low.
Even more stunning is the long-term view of the German institution’s downward spiral.
With a modest $15.8 billion in market capitalization, shares of the 147-year-old company now trade for a paltry 8% of its peak price in May 2007.
This Zero Hedge story is the third and final offering of the day from Brad Robertson. It was posted on their website on Sunday evening — and another link to this news item is here.
NATO meet in Warsaw: Obama’s last waltz won’t last forever
For the first time in the post-Cold War era, the specter of war between the U.S. and Russia haunts the world community. And that will be his most consequential presidential legacy.
The stridency of Obama’s rhetoric against Russia in Warsaw may have helped to silence the western leaders who lined up behind him.
When Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras showed the audacity to signal disagreement at the summit meeting and voiced the opinion that it was time to end the standoff with Russia, Obama quickly slapped him down.
It was a stunning show of brash leadership qualities. No one ever remotely associated Obama with such killer instinct.
This commentary by Indian career diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar is certainly a must read, even if you’re not a serious student of the New Great Game. It was posted on the Asia Times website on Monday — and I thank ‘aurora’ for passing it around yesterday. Another link to this commentary is here.
Tribunal Rejects Beijing’s Claims in South China Sea
An international tribunal in The Hague delivered a sweeping rebuke on Tuesday of China’s behavior in the South China Sea, including its construction of artificial islands, and found that its expansive claim to sovereignty over the waters had no legal basis.
The landmark case, brought by the Philippines, was seen as an important crossroads in China’s rise as a global power and in its rivalry with the United States, and it could force Beijing to reconsider its assertive tactics in the region or risk being labeled an international outlaw. It was the first time the Chinese government had been summoned before the international justice system.
In its most significant finding, the tribunal rejected China’s argument that it enjoys historic rights over most of the South China Sea. That could give the governments of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam more leverage in their own maritime disputes with Beijing.
The tribunal also said that China had violated international law by causing “irreparable harm” to the marine environment, endangering Philippine ships and interfering with Philippine fishing and oil exploration.
This story showed up on The New York Times website yesterday — and it’s courtesy of Patricia Caulfield. Another link to this news item is here.
Global arms race escalates as sabres rattle in South China Sea — Ambrose Evans Pritchard
The South China Sea has become the most dangerous fault-line in the world. Beijing and Washington are on a collision course over these contested waters, the shipping lane for 60pc of global trade.
As expected, the International Court of Justice in The Hague has ruled that China has no “historic title” to areas of this sea stretching all the way to the ‘nine dash line’ – deep into the territorial waters of a ring of South East Asian states.
Equally expected, Beijing has dismissed the verdict with scorn, accusing the tribunal of “shamelessly abusing its authority”. The state media said the country “must be prepared for any military confrontation” with the US, and must not flinch from war if provoked.
It is the latest in a series ominous developments in Asia and Europe that are rapidly subverting the Western international system and setting off a global rearmament race with strong echoes of the late-1930s.
Tensions are flaring up across so many spots in East Asia that global investment funds are actively betting on defence stocks and technology companies linked to military expansion. Nomura has launched an “Asian Arms Race Basket” as a hedge against potential conflicts in the East China Sea, the Straits of Taiwan, and the South China Sea.
This commentary by Ambrose appeared on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site at 7:43 p.m. BST on their Tuesday evening, which was 2:43 p.m. EDT in Washington. Another link to this news item is here.
Japan Vote Strengthens Shinzo Abe’s Goal to Change Constitution
Voters helped Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan move closer on Sunday to securing the lawmaker support he needs to revise a pacifist Constitution that has been in place since American occupiers created it in 1947.
An official count on Monday morning showed the governing coalition and its allies had captured two-thirds of the seats in the upper house of Parliament, the amount required to proceed with the constitutional revision.
Despite a weak economy and divided public opinion on the expanded role for Japan’s military that Mr. Abe is seeking, his Liberal Democrats and their allies again won a commanding majority in the upper house.
“This is the people’s voice letting us firmly move forward,” Mr. Abe said. When asked whether he would proceed with a revision of the Constitution, he said it had long been the Liberal Democrats’ goal.
Whether Mr. Abe will be able to pursue that ambition — to overturn the constitutional clause that calls for the complete renunciation of war — remains to be seen.
This is another article from the Monday edition of The New York Times — and it’s the second contribution in a row from Patricia Caulfield. Another link to this story is here.
Japan to craft stimulus by end-July, may issue construction bonds
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday told his economy minister to compile an economic stimulus package by the end of this month to revive a flagging economy in the face of sluggish private consumption and investment.
On Monday, after a landslide victory in Upper House elections and as evidence mounted the corporate sector is floundering due to weak demand, Abe ordered a new round of fiscal stimulus spending.
Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said on Tuesday the government will submit a supplementary budget to fund the stimulus to an extraordinary parliament session in the autumn.
Ishihara did not mention how much the government plans to spend, only saying he will start deliberations on the package’s size.
More debt that will never, ever get repaid. This Reuters news item, filed from Tokyo, appeared on their Internet site at 5:36 a.m. EDT on Tuesday morning — and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for finding it for us. Another link to this article is here.
Here is What Ben Bernanke Told the Bank of Japan
As previewed last week in “Something Big Is Coming: Bernanke To “Secretly” Meet With Kuroda; “Helicopter Money” On The Agenda“, the week’s key event, albeit behind closed doors, was the surprising meeting between Ben Bernanke and the BOJ’s Kuroda as well as Japan’s prime minister Abe. The outcome of the meeting has been, as we expected, nothing short of a whirlwind reaction in markets where speculation that Japan is set to become the first nation to openly espouse “helicopter money”, or central bank funded fiscal policy stimulus, has sent the Yen plunging (at least check the USD/JPY was above 104), the Nikkei soaring and unleashed a global “risk on” wave.
But what was actually said?
Since the meetings were held in private, nobody will ever know, although one can infer based on the upcoming actions by the BOJ and the Japanese Ministry of Finance, both of which are expected to boost monetary and fiscal stimulus, respectively, in the coming weeks, with Japan expected to unleash a new fiscal stimulus of around ¥10 trillion or more. As such, we have to rely on heavily filtered and watered down official interpretations of what the Citadel analyst and Brookings blogger told the BOJ.
According to the WSJ, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke rejected the notion that the Bank of Japan is short of ammunition when he met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Tuesday. Bernanke noted during the face-to-face meeting that Japan’s central bank still has a range of monetary easing measures at its disposal, according to Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga.
This is insanity. I can hardly believe that I’m reading stuff like this — and the fact that it’s probably true is even more disturbing. This Zero Hedge commentary showed up on their website at 10:22 a.m. on Tuesday morning EDT — and the original headline to this ZH piece read “It’s Official, Bernanke Urges Japan to Unleash Helicopter Money“. I thank Richard Saler for sending it along. Another link to this article is here.
Gold miners expand hedge book by another 50 tonnes in first quarter
Gold miners expanded the global hedge book by another 50 tonnes in the first quarter after hedging on a net basis for a second straight year in 2015, an industry report showed on Monday.
Miners use hedging, usually by selling future production forward, to guarantee returns for their output.
In their quarterly Global Hedge Book Analysis, Societe Generale and GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters said the global hedge book total stood at 270 tonnes at the end of March.
Australia-based operators accounted for half of gross hedging in the first quarter, with the majority coming from Newcrest, followed by a fourth tranche undertaken by Russia’s Polyus Gold, the report showed.
GFMS said that during the first quarter, producers opted to shorten their delivery schedule and enter contracts with shorter tenors than it would have previously considered normal.
Although hedging may have increased, it ain’t the same hedging that existed twenty years ago. It’s really “hedging lite” — and I’m not nearly as concerned this time around as I was fifteen years ago when the hedge book unwind brought a lot of miners to their knees. This Reuters article is datelined 10:15 p.m. EDT on Monday — and I found it on the gata.org Internet site. Another link to this story is here.
Gold hedging increased in Q1. Positive or negative? — Lawrie Williams
While some, for the most part smaller, gold miners always continued hedging a part of their gold production forwards to tie-in revenue – particularly in Australia, and some other countries, where the fall in the value of the Australian dollar against its U.S. counterpart meant the local gold price never really dropped substantially during the 2011-2015 U.S. dollar gold price downturn – hedging (committing forward) all or part of a mine’s production had largely fallen out of fashion. This was largely due to the major gold miners seeing what were effectively large book losses from such forward sales over the years when the gold price was rising fast and they consequently put considerable effort, and money, into unwinding their hedge books and there followed a consequent substantial period of dehedging.
Arguably the miners got their timings wrong, at least in part, with the gold price downturn (in U.S. dollars at least), when continued hedging might have saved them from a sharp fall in revenues and profits along with the declining gold price. And now, it would appear from the latest data published by precious metals consultancy GFMS, in conjunction with SocGen, that some gold miners could be getting their hedge book policies wrong again in a return to hedging activity, locking in current prices just when the gold price has been rising again.
GFMS thus notes that during the first quarter of 2016, the producer hedge book expanded by 1.62 million ounces (50 tonnes) and thus the global hedge book total stood at a delta-adjusted 8.69 million ounces (270 tonnes) at the end of Q1.
This commentary Lawrie was posted on the Sharps Pixley website yesterday — and it’s certainly worth reading. Another link to this news item is here.
Japan’s Tanaka to buy Swiss precious metals refiner Metalor
Japan’s Tanaka Holdings said it would buy Metalor Technologies International SA, a privately held Swiss precious metals refiner, to boost its business as local growth stagnates due to a falling population.
The purchase of Metalor will allow Tanaka to expand into precious metals recovery and refining in Europe, North America and Asia, the Tokyo-based company said in a statement on Tuesday.
No terms for the deal were given in the statement. Tanaka was founded in 1885 and had sales of just over 1 trillion yen ($9.7 billion) in the year through March 2016, it said.
The company also sells jewellery and gold bars, often made in the shape of fashionable characters, as well as producing electronic circuitry and other electrical parts.
This short Reuters article put in an appearance on their Internet site at 8:48 a.m. BST in London on Tuesday morning — and I found it on the Sharps Pixley website. Another link to this brief gold-related news item is here.
The PHOTOS and the FUNNIES
There wasn’t much happening down at the pond on Sunday evening. You saw that group shot of Canada geese yesterday — and the only other thing that I saw was this white-fronted/speckle bellied goose with the broken wing that’s still hanging around. It was reasonably cloudy — and because he was partially back-lit, I had to use fill-flash for the second shot, which you can see reflected in its eye.
The WRAP
Well, there’s no doubt that ‘da boyz’ were out and about for the second day in a row, setting new lows for both gold and silver…but how low, and for how long, is still unknown.
Here are the 6-month charts for all four precious metals — and their respective 50-day moving averages are a long way away from Tuesday’s closing prices. But can they, or will they be able to? Nobody knows.
And as I type this paragraph, the London open is less than ten minutes away — and I see that ‘da boyz’ set a new low tick in both gold and silver shortly after 9 a.m. HKT on their Wednesday morning. But after that, both metals ran higher. At the moment, gold is up 8 bucks — and silver is up two bits. Its rally off its low tick had to be capped at 11 a.m. HKT as it was about to run away to the upside. The platinum price got hit for a new low as well — and its rally after that also got capped at 11 a.m. HKT. At the moment it’s up 4 dollars the ounce. Palladium had a real price spike shortly after 11 a.m. HKT, as the market went “no ask” — and JPMorgan et al had to step in as the price went vertical. It’s up 14 dollars currently.
Net HFT gold volume is very heavy at a bit over 48,000 contracts — and that number in silver is north of 18,000 contracts. These are huge numbers. It’s obvious that the powers-that-be are at battle stations in their attempts to keep the precious metal prices from exploding. The dollar index, which made it up to around the 96.55 mark about 8:30 a.m. HKT, has been chopping lower. It began to rally from the 96.37 mark shortly before 2 p.m. local time over there — and is only down 6 basis points as London opens.
I would expect that virtually all of yesterday’s price action will turn up in Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, so we should see some decent declines in the Commercial net short positions in both gold and silver. Ted may have a more definitive idea of how much in his mid-week column later today.
And as I post today’s column on the website at 4:05 a.m. EDT, I note that the gold price continues to creep higher — and is currently up 11 bucks an ounce now that London has been open for an hour. Silver is up 26 cents an ounce. Platinum is up 3 dollars, but palladium got stepped on at the London/Zurich open — as its second spike rally of the day got capped, and it’s currently 8 dollars off its high tick — and only up 10 bucks an ounce at the moment.
Net HFT gold volume is now sitting at a hair over 55,500 contracts — and that number in silver is a hair under 20,000 contracts. The dollar index has rallied a bit — and is currently up 4 basis points.
At this juncture it’s pointless to speculate where price will go from here. It’s obvious that the Big 8 traders on the short side, most of which are banks or investment houses, want prices down so they can cover their short positions and eliminate most or all of their margin losses that they’re currently suffering. But whether it works out that way or not, remains to be seen.
I got an e-mail from reader David Putnam that had a few sentences from Jim Rickards latest commentary over at the dailyreckoning.com Internet site yesterday — and they are as follows: “Monetary elites are looking to engineer higher gold prices to generate inflation since nothing else has worked. The idea is to have central banks, whether the Fed or the emerging markets, bid up the price of gold. The idea’s been around for a long time, but now these elites are discussing it publicly. This has never happened before.
A higher gold price will also drive prices in the overall economy higher, giving the Fed its precious inflation. The evidence is very strong for that hypothesis.”
Of course this is the gold card I’ve spoken of for a decade now — and as I’ve mentioned so many times already this year, it’s the only card that the central bankers of the world have left in the deck. It’s now just a matter of when, not if, they decide to play it.
All we can do is watch and wait.
See you tomorrow.
Ed
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