10 March 2016 — Thursday
YESTERDAY in GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM and PALLADIUM
Gold’s weak rally attempt in the first hour of trading in New York on Tuesday evening got dealt with by the HFT boyz at 9:00 a.m. HKT on their Wednesday morning. Then it traded flat until around 1 p.m. HKT—and began to rally a bit from there. But at, or just before the London a.m. gold fix, ‘da boyz’ showed up again—and the low tick of the day was set at 9:45 a.m. EST. The subsequent rally wasn’t allowed to get far—and the New York high tick came about fifteen minutes before the COMEX close. It was sold lower from there, but recovered a few dollars in the last ninety minutes of trading.
The high and low ticks were recorded as $1,265.70 and $1,243.60 in the April contract.
Gold finished the Wednesday session in New York at $1,252.90 spot, down $8.10 from Tuesday’s close. Net volume was just over 175,000 contracts, which is a big number once again—and roll-over activity was pretty impressive.
And here’s the 5-minute tick chart courtesy of Brad Robertson. Note the volume associated with the HFT price spike to the downside at 9 a.m. HKT, which is 18:00 Denver time on this chart. Volume began to pick up again at, or just before the morning gold fix in London, which was about 3:20 MST, or 5:20 EST. The big 8,000+ contract volume spike is the stand-out feature on this chart—and volume dropped off to background levels once the COMEX closed. The vertical gray line is midnight in New York—add two hours for EDT—and although the ‘click to enlarge‘ feature doesn’t work with Internet Explorer, a right mouse click with Google Chrome or the Firefox browsers will allow you to view it full-screen size.
The 9:00 a.m. HKT sell-off in silver was a bit more vicious than for gold—and that was the low tick of the day. After that it followed in lock-step with gold, which would be impossible in a market where the two precious metals were allowed to trade freely—and on their supply/demand fundamentals.
The high and low ticks in silver are barely worth looking up, but the CME group recorded them as $15.455 and $15.205 in the May contract.
Silver was closed in New York yesterday at $15.27 spot, down 5.5 cents from Tuesday’s close. It actually spent a goodly chunk of the COMEX trading session in positive territory, but that wasn’t allowed to last. Net volume was heavier than I’d like to see at just over 38,000 contracts.
Platinum got dealt with the same as gold and silver in the first six hour of trading on Wednesday morning in the Far East. The rally in that metal began just after 2 p.m. HKT—but that rally, along with every other rally attempt for the rest of the Wednesday session, got sold off before they could get too far. Platinum finished the Wednesday session in New York at $977 spot, down 5 dollars on the day.
It was the same for palladium during the first six hours of its Wednesday trading session as well—but the rally that began shortly before 1:30 p.m HKT didn’t get stepped on for good until shortly after 11 a.m. EST. From there it got sold down a few dollars into the close, finishing the day at $565 spot, up 8 bucks from Tuesday.
The dollar index closed late on Tuesday afternoon in New York at 97.21—and then rallied as high as 97.46 by around 12:10 p.m. HKT. It chopped a bit lower from there, before catching a bid at 8:00 a.m. in New York—and the 97.57 high tick came around 9:40 a.m. in New York, about ten minutes after the equity markets opened, which was also silver and gold’s low tick in New York trading. It fell off a cliff at that point—and the four attempts by ‘gentle hands’ to save it were finally successful at its 96.93 low tick, which came about 12:50 p.m. EST. It then chopped higher into the close, finishing the day at 97.20—which was basically unchanged from Tuesday’s close.
It was just another day where ‘da boyz’ had to save the dollar before it plunged through its 200-day moving average on its way to oblivion, with the precious metal prices doing precisely the opposite.
And here’s the 6-month U.S. dollar chart so you can see how well that the dollar index is being supported by the powers-that-be. Not even Yoda will be able to save this puppy when it’s finally cut loose.
The gold stocks opened down two percent, hitting their respective low ticks at the London p.m. gold fix. They rallied back into positive territory to stay by shortly after 11 a.m. in New York—and managed to close with a small gain, as the HUI finished higher by 0.51 percent. I would guess that the buy-the-dip crowd was out in force yesterday.
The silver equities followed a very similar pattern, except their highs of the day came minutes after 12:30 p.m. in New York trading—and they slid a bit from there into the close. Nick Laird’s Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed up 0.53 percent.
The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold and 7 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the COMEX-approved depositories. ADM was the short/issuer on all of them—and JPMorgan stopped 6 of them for its own in-house [proprietary] trading account.
The CME Preliminary Report for the Wednesday trading session showed that March open interest in gold rose once again—this time by 17 contracts, leaving 113 still open. In silver, March o.i. only fell by 27 contracts, which is one of the lowest numbers we’ve had all month, so it appears that JPMorgan and/or their clients didn’t let any short/issuers in the March contract off the hook this time. It will be interesting to see if the remaining 1,520 contracts actually get delivered—and by whom, because we already know who the long/stopper is going to be.
After a withdrawal from GLD on Tuesday, an authorized participant deposited 66,921 troy ounces of gold on Wednesday. And as of 7:02 p.m. EST yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV.
The folks over at the shortsqueeze.com Internet site updated the short positions for both GLD and SLV as of the close of business on Monday, February 29—and this is what they had to report. The short interest in silver declined from 13.53 million shares/troy ounces to 12.11 million shares/troy ounces—a drop of 10.49 percent. In gold, the short interest went from 1.29 million troy ounces, down to 1.19 million troy ounces, which was a decline of 7.92 percent.
There was another sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday. They sold 2,000 troy ounces of gold eagles—and 208,500 silver eagles.
There was very little movement in gold over at the COMEX-approved depositories on Tuesday, as only 396 troy ounces were reported received—and 257.200 troy ounces/8 kilobars were shipped out. I shan’t bother linking this activity.
It was another busy day in silver, as 1,158,223 troy ounces were reported received—and 523,597 troy ounces were shipped out the door for parts unknown. All of the ‘in’ activity was at Canada’s Scotiabank—and all the ‘out’ activity was at Delaware. The link to that action is here.
For a change, there were no reported in/out movements over at the COMEX-approved gold kilobar depositories in Hong Kong on their Tuesday.
I have the usual number of stories for a weekday column—and I’ll happily leave the final edit up to you.
CRITICAL READS
Former Fed President: “We Injected Cocaine And Heroin Into the System to Create a Wealth Effect“
Just two months ago, former Fed President Dick Fisher admitted that “The Fed front-loaded an enormous market rally in order to create a wealth effect.”
Today he is back, taking a victory lap on the seventh anniversary of the crisis lows by explaining, rather stunningly, to CNBC that “we injected cocaine and heroin into the system” to enable a wealth effect (that he admits did not work, despite its success in raising asset prices), and “now we are maintaining it with Ritalin.“ Fisher also confirmed his previous warning that “The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left.”
Fisher explains how The Fed achieved its goals… but admits that didn’t really fix anything…and here is CNBC‘s higher quality (edited) version where the blame for everything is pinned on “feckless fiscal authorities…“
Once again, Fisher appears to be undertaking a major “cover-your-ass” episode, proclaiming that he was against QE3 which is what has forced “valuations to be very richly priced.”
There are two video clips embedded in this amazing Zero Hedge article that was posted on their website at 2:17 p.m. on Wednesday afternoon EST. The second of the two is the one to watch—and I can’t believe he said all this stuff, but he did! I thank David Caron for passing it around yesterday—and it’s a must read/watch. Another link to this article is here.
Crackpot Valuations — Bill Bonner
The markets are eerily quiet. With so many trends and facts to titillate us all, you’d expect a little more excitement. As it is, the big sell-off at the start of the year seems incomplete – a kind of financial foreplay without the climactic battering of a real bear market. What to make of it?
One thing is sure: There is still no recovery. First, earnings-per-share estimates for the first quarter are dropping faster than ever in history. On the S&P 500, they’re already down by 8% from the previous year. What kind of “recovery” makes businesses less profitable? Well, there is one possibility. But this isn’t it…
A genuine recovery increases the demand for labor… which results in higher wages. This leaves businesses with more sales but smaller margins. But that is not happening today. Sales are not rising. They are weak or falling. So are wages.
As you know, Washington’s jobs data are largely fraudulent; the feds make seasonal and other adjustments to add jobs that don’t exist. Wage data are more reliable. They are based on tax withholdings. And they measure the money that workers take home in their paychecks. Reports Bloomberg:
“Employers added more workers in February than projected, but wages unexpectedly declined, dashing hopes that reduced slack in the labor market was starting to benefit all Americans. The 242,000 gain followed a 172,000 rise in January that was larger than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The jobless rate held at 4.9 percent as people entered the labor force and found work. Average hourly earnings dropped, the first monthly decline in more than a year, and workers put in fewer hours.”
This commentary by Bill Bonner yesterday has some excellent charts embedded in it—and it’s something that was posted on the actingman.com Internet site yesterday—and I thank Roy Stephens for his first contribution of the day. Another link to this article is here.
Do Any of the Current Rallies Pass “The Sniff Test“? No! — Charles Hugh Smith
Everything from iron ore to copper to the Baltic Dry Index to stocks to bat guano is rallying. The problem is not a single rally passes “the sniff test:” is the rally the result of changing fundamentals, or is it merely short-covering and/or speculative hot money leaping from one rally to the next?
Every one of these rallies is bogus, a travesty of a mockery of a sham of price discovery, supposedly the core function of markets. What shift in fundamentals drove this rally? Higher profits? No, profits are declining, especially once the phony adjustments are stripped away. Is the global economy strengthening? Don’t make us laugh!
As Chris Martenson and many others have noted, “price discovery” is a joke now, as markets are either propped up by central bank “we got your back” guarantees or outright asset purchases, or driven up and down by speculative hot money flows.
This is not capitalism, or a functioning market: this is the end-game of legalized looting and financialization. What’s the value of real estate? If interest rates are pushed negative, then that gooses housing demand, as the cost of interest on a mortgage declines to near-zero in real terms.
Charles puts the current precious metal rally in that camp as well, but I strongly disagree. This short commentary, which is worth reading, was posted on the oftwominds.com Internet site today sometime, which is hard to do unless it was filed from the Far East somewhere. I thank U.D. for passing it around very late last night EST. Another link to this article is here.
Wholesale Trade “Gap” Reaches Record High as Sales Tumble, Inventories Rise
Worst.Case.Scenario. In 24 years, the ratio of wholesale inventories to sales has only been higher than the current 1.35x once – at the peak of the recession in the last financial crisis. Wholesale sales tumbled 1.3% MoM (worse than the -0.3% exp) and inventories rose 0.3% MoM while expectations were for a drop of 0.1% (inventories over sales difference rose from $143.6BN to $151.2BN in one month, a new record high.) And finally, automotive inventories rose to 1.78x sales – the highest since the crisis.
Keep stacking, despite tumbling sales…which leaves us firmly in the “recession imminent” section of the business cycle…
This 3-chart Zero Hedge story is certainly worth a look. It was posted on their Internet site at 10:11 a.m. EST yesterday morning—and I found it in this morning’s edition of the King Report. Another link to this must read article is here.
“That’s horse sh*t!“: FBI can already unlock iPhone without Apple’s help – Snowden
NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden said that the FBI’s claim to need Apple to unlock the iPhone a San Bernardino shooter is a sham.
The FBI says that only Apple has the ability to crack the work phone left behind by the San Bernardino terrorists, and last month convinced a federal judge to compel the tech giant to write a custom operating system with intentionally weakened security mechanisms. Apple is refusing to do so, and said that it is willing to take the fight to the Supreme Court.
Over a video link appearance at Blueprint for a Great Democracy conference on Tuesday, Snowden took Apple’s side.
“The FBI says Apple has the ‘exclusive technical means’ to unlock the phone,” Snowden told the audience from Moscow. “Respectfully, that’s horse sh*t.”
No shades of gray here, dear reader! This news item put in an appearance on the Russia Today website at 7:45 p.m. Moscow time on their Wednesday evening, which was was 11:45 a.m. in New York—EDT plus 8 hours. It was subsequently updated two hours later. I thank Roy Stephens for this article—and another link to this story is here.
Brazilian Businessman Gets Stiff Sentence in Petrobras Scandal
Marcelo Odebrecht, the former chief executive of Brazil’s largest construction company, was convicted of corruption and money laundering on Tuesday. He was sentenced to more than 19 years in prison by the Brazilian judge who is leading the wide-ranging investigation into corruption at the state-owned oil company, Petrobras.
Testimony in the overall inquiry, which has shaken the country’s political and business elite, has shown that executives at Petrobras accepted large bribes from companies and channeled some of that money to political figures and the governing Workers Party.
The judge, Sergio Moro, in a 234-page decision, said Mr. Odebrecht had paid about $35 million in bribes to officials at Petrobras and had used overseas accounts to launder the money and make many of the illicit payments. “Corruption with the payment of bribes of over hundreds of millions of reals, which has the consequence of draining the public coffers, merits special condemnation,” Judge Moro wrote.
This article, filed from Rio de Janeiro, appeared on The New York Times website on Tuesday sometime—and I thank Patricia Caulfield for sending it our way. Another link to this news item is here.
Argentina rethinks coins, bank notes
Many times inflationary pressures can be seen through the coins and bank notes issued by a country. Argentina is currently facing such inflationary pressures.
According to the Banco Central de la Republica Argentina, Argentina’s central bank, “The incorporation of bills of higher denomination is a practical necessity for the better functioning of cash machines and the reduction of the cost of moving cash around.”
Through another statement the central bank added, “Issuing larger notes is a practical necessity for the better functioning of the ATMs and to lower the cost of moving cash. Nevertheless, the central bank will encourage the use of electronic means of payment and will move forward on that direction in the near future.”
This interesting news item showed up on the numistmaticnews.net Internet site on Monday—and I thank Tolling Jennings for sharing it with us. Another link to this article is here.
Going Colonial? Meet the American Who May Soon Be Ukraine’s Prime Minister
A cast of colorfully corrupt characters, Including former Georgian puppet leader Saakashvili, are involved in the blatant U.S. takeover of a country on Russia’s doorstep, one geopolitical analyst told Sputnik.
The U.S. colonial experiment in Eastern Europe has taken on a new urgency this week with speculation that an American citizen, Natalie Jaresko, will be announced as the next Prime Minister of Ukraine. Geopolitical analyst Daniel McAdams, of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity, discusses the developments with Loud & Clear‘s Brian Becker.
Who is Natalie Jaresko?
Natalie Jaresko is an investment banker who became a Ukrainian citizen in December 2014 after being appointed the country’s finance minister.
“The first thing that Jaresko did as finance minister is she sent a letter to John McCain saying they need more weapons, she is a corrupt war hawk,” McAdams told Loud & Clear. “She is representative of the worst, most corrupt type of Americans that are sent into these countries.”
This amazing news item, which really shouldn’t be a surprise considering the duplicity of the U.S. State Department, appeared on the sputniknews.com Internet site at one minute after midnight on their Thursday morning over in Moscow, which was 4:01 p.m. in Washington—EST plus 8 hours. It’s the third offering of the day from Roy Stephens—and another link to this story is here.
China’s smog-choked steel city readies for six-month flower show shutdown
A dramatic spike in the price of iron ore this week has been blamed on an upcoming flower show that is designed to showcase green-living in one of China’s most smog-choked industrial cities.
Steel mills in Tangshan – a city of about 7 million inhabitants in China’s steel-producing heartlands – reportedly sent prices rocketing by nearly 20% on Monday, after going on an unexpected shopping spree for the commodity ahead of an enforced shutdown later this year.
The partial shutdown is intended to reduce smog during the 2016 World Horticultural Exposition, which the city will host from April until October .
Speaking at China’s annual rubber-stamp parliament on Tuesday, Jiao Yanlong, Tangshan’s Communist party secretary, told the Financial Times that temporary air quality control measures would see production at the city’s steel mills cut in half until the end of September.
This very interesting story showed up on theguardian.com Internet site at 9:45 a.m. GMT yesterday morning—and I thank James O’Kelly for finding it for us. Another link to this article is here.
The World Economy Wreckers of Beijing — David Stockman
The evidence that the Red Ponzi has entered a final delirious blow-off stage accumulates by the day. This Bloomberg story noted that private equity is also exploding in China. At present the are apparently 15,900 limited partnerships with nearly $1.0 trillion under management. The speculative excesses being fostered must be truly mind-boggling.
But don’t tell the gamblers still left in the Wall Street casino. They persist in the preposterous delusion that China is a $10 trillion growth miracle with transition challenges that will be deftly taken to the next level of consumption and services-based growth by the deft managers in Beijing.
No it won’t. China is an economic doomsday machine heading for a crash landing, and this latest venture capitalist gambit is just further proof.
The truth is, there is no real capitalism in China at all; it is a quasi-totalitarian nation gone mad digging, building, borrowing, spending and speculating in a magnitude that has no historical parallel.
Wow!—and I couldn’t agree more. This longish commentary by David was posted his Internet site yesterday sometime—and it’s definitely worth reading. I thank Roy Stephen for digging it up for us—and another link to this ‘essay’ is here.
Kiwi Plunges as New Zealand Announces “Surprise” Rate Cut, Warns on China
They don’t call it a “currency war” for nothing.
Moments ago, the RBNZ cut rates by 25 bps to 2.25% in the latest shot across the bow in what is now a years-long race to the bottom.
Here are the bullets:
NEW ZEALAND CUTS KEY INTEREST RATE TO 2.25% FROM 2.50%
RBNZ SAYS FURTHER EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION IS APPROPRIATE
RBNZ SEES INFLATION REACHING 2% IN 1Q 2018 VS 4Q 2017
RBNZ SEES 4Q 2016 ANNUAL INFLATION AT 1.1% VS 1.6%
Cue the kiwi plunge…
This brief, but must read news item put in an appearance on the Zero Hedge website at 3:14 p.m. EST on Wednesday—and I thank Richard Saler for bringing it to our attention. Another link to this article is here.
Don Coxe seeing a recovery in gold, but not yet in oil
BNN speaks with Don Coxe, Chairman of Coxe Advisors about the latest rally in gold and why it feels different this time, particularly given the economics of negative rates and its effects on the bond market. He first starts by offering his take on the outlook for crude oil.
This must watch 8:13 minute video interview appeared on the Broadcast News Network at 2:11 p.m. EST on Wednesday—and I thank Ken Hurt for sharing it with us.
Franco-Nevada Chair Pierre Lassonde: Gold in a bull market, see gold at $8,000
BNN speaks with Pierre Lassonde, Chair of gold and royalty streaming company Franco-Nevada. He provides his take on the state of the mining industry and the rally in commodities, particularly in gold.
Of course gold will only get to $8,000 the ounce if the powers-that-be wish it to be so—and Pierre, who is a paid-up member of the establishment, knows that all too well—but neglects to mention it. This is the second must watch BNN video interview in a row—and was referred to in the Don Coxe interview prior above, as the Lassonde interview was broadcast on Tuesday. The first person through the door with this item yesterday was Richard Saler.
Gold’s Rally Promising, Right People Are Bullish — Grant Williams
Although gold’s rally so far this year is promising, one popular newsletter writer says he expects one final leg down in prices from here.
‘I think this is a good rally, the right people are bullish,’ Grant Williams, publisher of the Things That Make You Go Hmmm… newsletter, told Kitco News on the sidelines of the world’s largest mining convention in Toronto – the Prospectors and Developers Association (PDAC) annual meeting.
‘But I am kind of waiting for one more pullback. Gold always has that propensity to kick everybody in the teeth one last time, so I’m waiting for that to happen,’ he added.
This 4:02 minute video interview showed up on thestreet.com Internet site at 5:06 p.m. EST on Tuesday afternoon—and it’s something I found on the Sharps Pixley website last night. It’s definitely worth watching—and another link to this video clip is here.
New Gold hedges nearly all its remaining 2016 gold output
New Gold Inc. has hedged nearly all of its remaining 2016 gold production to ensure cash flow for its Rainy River project, the company said, an unusually large amount for a miner after bullion made its biggest rally in 4 1/2 years.
The miner said on Tuesday that it hedged 270,000 ounces of gold for the remaining nine months of the year through options contracts at a cost of $2 million, starting in April, giving them a minimum price of $1,200 an ounce and maximum at $1,400 an ounce.
That breaks down to 30,000 ounces each month and accounts for 90-100 percent of New Gold’s production forecast.
This is not a material amount of gold, so it doesn’t raise my hackles too much considering the circumstances under which the hedge was placed. This Reuters article, filed from New York, showed up on their website at 5:06 p.m. EST yesterday afternoon—and I found it embedded in a GATA release. Another link to this gold-related story is here.
Indian government calls meeting on gold monetization scheme’s lack of success
Following a tardy progress in the most ambitious gold monetization scheme since its launch on November 5 last year by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Finance Ministry has called another meeting of all stakeholders on March 18 to discuss why the scheme is not gaining momentum.
Until February a little over 1 tonne of gold was mobilized under the scheme compared to nearly 4 tonnes of sale of sovereign gold bonds in first two tranches while the third tranche is still open.
Interestingly, at a time when jewellers are on a strike opposing imposition of excise duty in the Union budget, the government has preferred not to invite all trade bodies. Hence only Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association has been called to meeting while the Gems and Jewellery Foundation has not been invited. From the refiners’ side, many representatives have been asked to attend.
Why am I not surprised? This article was posted on the business-standard.com Internet site just before midnight IST on their Wednesday evening—and it’s the second gold-related story I found on the gata.org Internet site last night. Another link to this news item is here.
The PHOTOS and the FUNNIES
The first photo is of a hoopoe—and the second is a western cottonmouth, which is a pit viper found in the south central U.S.
The WRAP
We are into the second week of the delivery process and the data to date indicate the unmistakable footprints of JPMorgan’s typical dominance of all things silver. It’s clear now, from continuing daily CME data, that JPM came into the delivery month in position to stop or demand the maximum number of silver contracts allowed – 1,500 contracts (7.5 million oz) – for both itself and on behalf of a client; a total of 3,000 contracts or 15 million oz. This coincides with my basic premise of JPMorgan accumulating massive amounts of actual metal over the past 5 years, now amounting to more than 400 million oz.
Apparently, JPMorgan ran into a snag in its plans to acquire 15 million additional ounces of metal in the March delivery period as it has subsequently and voluntarily liquidated many of its open March contracts. At this point, it looks like JPMorgan has liquidated more of its customer’s remaining March long positions than its own positions, but I can’t imagine anyone being surprised by that. The most plausible explanation for the snag or change in plans in JPM taking delivery on as many as 3,000 combined contracts is that the sellers weren’t in position to make delivery. The short holders of the March contracts weren’t able to meet JPMorgan’s demand for physical silver without disrupting the price (to the upside); and, rather than risk the overall stink of a prospective short squeeze, JPMorgan backed down on its delivery demands.
We went into the first delivery day with more than 3,400 March contracts open and, I can claim now, that JPM held 3000 total longs in March (despite being overall big net short in COMEX futures contracts). But after 8 delivery days, only 339 contracts have been delivered so far, a shockingly low number for what is a traditional COMEX silver delivery month. By comparison, there have been 576 deliveries this month in COMEX gold and March is definitely not a traditional gold delivery month. What’s the most obvious reason for the lack of deliveries in March silver? The shorts didn’t have or can’t secure the physical material easily. — Silver analyst Ted Butler: 09 March 2016
It was more or less another day off the calendar, although it should be noted that both gold and silver set slight new intraday lows for this move down on Wednesday—and as much as I’m not looking forward to it, I expect this trend to continue.
Nothing has changed from what I said yesterday, as the situation still remains unresolved either up or down—JPMorgan et al haven’t been over run—and the Commercial net short position is still over the moon. But using the past as prologue, I’d have to bet down—and that’s where I’d put my money if push became shove.
Here are the 6-month charts for the Big 6+1 commodities.
The 50-day moving averages continue to climb, but gold’s 50-day is still about $100 away—and in silver it’s something under a dollar, but with the Managed Money traders loaded to the gunwales on the long side in both these precious metals, JPMorgan et al could drive the prices much lower than that if they so choose. The question then becomes can they—because I’m sure they’re quite willing if the opportunity presents itself.
And as I write this paragraph, the London open is less than ten minutes away—and I note that the gold price has quietly sold off during the Far East trading session—and is currently down 7 bucks. Silver traded sideways for quite a while, but now is down 7 cents the ounce. Platinum is down 2 dollars—and palladium is down 6.
Net HFT gold volume is just under 29,000 contracts—and that number in silver is around 5,300 contracts. The dollar index has been chopping higher since it opened in New York early Wednesday evening—and is currently up 28 basis points as London opens.
I have nothing to add to what I said just above, or yesterday. All we can do is await the resolution of this situation—and I’ll call it the way I see it as it unfolds in either price direction.
If it’s down, then it become a matter of how low—and over what period of time; death by a thousand cuts, or by a couple of big thrusts. I’d prefer the latter, but there’s just no way to tell in advance.
But if ‘da boyz’ do get over run, begin to cover, or just put their hands in their pockets—then all bets are off to the upside. I’m not expecting that to happen, but once the engineered price decline is done to the downside, then that very scenario is precisely what could develop.
And as I post today’s column on the website at 4:00 a.m. EST, I see that all four precious metals popped a bit shortly after the London/Zurich open. Gold is now only down 3 dollars, silver is actually up 3 cents the ounce—and platinum is up 3 bucks—and palladium is back to unchanged.
Net HFT gold volume is now up to just about 34,500 contracts—and that number in silver is 6,400 contracts. Like yesterday, there hasn’t been a big increase in volume over the last hour of trading since I reported on it just before London opened. The dollar index is off its previous high tick, which came at precisely 8:00 a.m. GMT—and is up only 20 basis points at the moment.
That’s all I have for today—and I’ll see you here tomorrow.
Ed
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