20 January 2016 — Wednesday
YESTERDAY in GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM and PALLADIUM
The gold price spent most of the Tuesday session in the Far East trading below unchanged. But shortly before the London open, the price began to rally quietly. However, within an hour, the not-for-profit sellers appeared and not only capped the price, but drove it down to its low of the day, which came shortly before noon in London. From that point it chopped quietly higher—and back into positive territory once again by 2:15 p.m. in New York. But ‘da boyz’ were there once again to sell it down for a small loss on the day.
The high and low ticks were reported as $1,094.50 and $1,082.10 in the February contract.
Gold closed in New York yesterday at $1,087.50 spot, down $1.30 from Monday’s close. Net volume on Tuesday, minus Monday’s volume, was pretty light at a hair over 95,500 contracts.
Here’s the 5-minute gold tick chart courtesy of Brad Robertson as always—and you can see that there was elevated volume activity around the price shenanigans during the first hour of trading in London—and then the volume picked up once again at the low tick price spike just before noon GMT. Volume in COMEX trading wasn’t overly heavy—and died down substantially once the COMEX closed at 11:30 a.m. Denver time on this chart. The vertical gray line is midnight in New York—add two hours for EST—and the ‘click to enlarge‘ feature still isn’t working.
The silver rally that began in late afternoon trading in the Far East, went basically ‘no ask’ at the London open—and the HFT traders and their algos were quick to respond. The sell-off took the price back a few pennies below $14 spot by 11 a.m. GMT—and from there, like gold, it rallied until 2 p.m. in New York before getting sold down into the 5:15 p.m. EST close of electronic trading.
The high and low ticks were reported by the CME Group as $14.185 and $13.84 in the March contract.
Silver finished the Tuesday session in New York at $14.02 spot, up 11 cents from Friday. Like gold, it would obviously have close materially higher if allowed to do so, which it wasn’t. Net volume, minus Monday’s volume, was nothing special at just a bit under 31,500 contracts.
Platinum began to rally starting around 10 a.m. Hong Kong time on their Tuesday morning—and that rally also got cut off about thirty minutes into the Zurich trading session—and within a few minutes of the time that gold and silver got capped. From there it chopped mostly lower for the rest of the day, closing at $824 spot, up 6 whole dollars. The sky was also the limit in that precious metal if allowed to trade freely.
The palladium price didn’t do much in Far East trading, but in late in their afternoon—and about an hour before the Zurich open on their Tuesday morning, the price of that precious metal rallied to just above the $500 spot mark. That got capped about the same time as the other three precious metals—and the secondary rally back above the $500 spot mark that followed about three hours later, got capped at exactly 1 p.m. Zurich time. By the London p.m. gold fix it was back to about unchanged—and it chopped sideways for the rest of the New York session closing down a buck at $492 spot.
The dollar index closed late on Monday afternoon at 99.10—and began to chop higher once Tuesday trading began in the Far East on their Tuesday morning. The 99.31 high tick came minutes after 8 a.m. in New York, but the index began to head south from that point. The 98.86 low tick came around 2:20 p.m. EST—and it rallied from there into the close, finishing the Tuesday session at 99.08—which was basically unchanged.
Here’s the 6-month U.S. dollar chart—and for the moment, it’s following the 50-day moving average line like a shadow.
The gold stocks opened unchanged, but a seller of size showed up immediately—and by the time they were done, the HUI was down 5 percent—and it actually dipped below 100 on several occasions, but managed to close at 100.70—down a whopping 5.63 percent.
And as bad as it was for the gold shares, the silver equities got it even worse, despite the fact that the metal itself finished well into the black. Nick Laird’s Intraday Silver Sentiment Index got pounded to the tune of 7.12 percent.
Neither Ted nor I could figure out why the precious metal equities got it in the neck yesterday—and the only thing we could think of was that someone was unloading a position after the long weekend. Ted said that the share volume wasn’t overly heavy, but obviously there were few buyers. But the question should be asked as to whom those buyers were.
Some of the individuals stocks were down horrendous amounts. But since the mining company executives don’t seem to give a damn about what their share prices are, or how their respective companies have arrived at their current valuations, I guess they make the assumption that us mere shareholders shouldn’t care, either. But we do!
The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold and 6 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the COMEX-approved depositories on Wednesday. The issuer was JPMorgan out of its own account.
The CME Preliminary Report for both Monday and Tuesday showed that January open interest in gold dropped by 4 contracts, leaving 216 still around. January o.i. in silver shed 9 contracts leaving just 19 left.
There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday, but an authorized participant withdrew another 1,333,609 troy ounces of silver from SLV.
So far in the first 11 trading days of this month/year—4.33 million troy ounces of silver have been withdrawn from SLV and shipped off to parts unknown.
It was another big sales day over at the U.S Mint on Tuesday. They sold 20,500 troy ounces of gold eagles—4,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes—and a very chunky 950,000 silver eagles.
Since retail sales are less than impressive, it’s a safe bet that Ted’s ‘big buyer’ was feasting heavily on most of this production.
There was hardly any in/out activity in gold over at the COMEX-approved depositories on Friday, as only 97 troy ounces were reported received—and only 1,608 were shipped out. I shan’t bother with the link to that activity.
But it was another monster day in silver, as 682,821 troy ounces were reported received—and 3,273,836 troy ounces were shipped out the door. Virtually all of the activity was at Brink, Inc., CNT and HSBC USA. Once again there was no activity reported at JPMorgan. The link to yesterday’s action is here—and it’s worth a quick look.
Ted may or may not have some thoughts about ‘all of the above’ in his mid-week column this afternoon—and if he does, I’ll steal what I can.
There was nothing shabby about the activity over at the COMEX-approved gold kilobar depositories in Hong Kong on their Friday, as they reported receiving 9,329 kilobars—and shipped out 1,358 of them. All of the activity was at Brink’s, Inc. once again—and the link to that, in troy ounces, is here.
I don’t have all that many stories for you today, so your editing job is not overly onerous.
CRITICAL READS
The IMF Has Slashed Its World Growth Forecasts Again
The International Monetary Fund has added its imprimatur to the chorus of doom from Wall Street analysts over the last couple of weeks, downgrading its forecasts for the global economy for the next two years.
In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the most comprehensive forecast for the global economy, the IMF said that the slowdown in emerging markets would cut 0.2 percentage points off the world’s gross domestic product growth both this year and next. It now expects GDP to rise only 3.4% this year, and 3.6% in 2017.
The IMF is predicting growth in China will fall to 6.3% this year and 6%, both of which would confirm a trend evident in the fourth-quarter GDP figures released by Beijing earlier Tuesday. The figures suggested GDP grew at its slowest rate in 25 years–and many suspect the actual rate of growth is well below the one reported by China’s statisticians.
The IMF put a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China at the top of its list of risks for the coming year, closely followed by a warning that a further rise in the dollar could create a financial crisis in emerging markets, especially where companies have taken on too much debt in dollars in the post-2009 period of almost-free money from the Federal Reserve.
This news item put in an appearance on the fortune.com Internet site at 6:24 a.m. EST on Tuesday morning—and I thank Scott Linn for today’s first story.
Puerto Rico Revises Plan to Reduce Debt as Optimism Dwindles
Four months after announcing a grueling five-year plan for reducing the island’s vast debt and reviving economic growth, Puerto Rico’s top economic officials said on Monday that they had been too optimistic and revised the plan for the worse.
When the government first released its five-year plan last September, it warned creditors that it would need $14 billion of debt relief over that period, because it did not have enough money to pay them the total amount due, $28 billion.
In a briefing for journalists on Monday, officials said they now expected to need a $16 billion break from creditors.
The officials said they had run updated forecasts for 10 years as well, and things did not get much better. Over the full 10 years, they said, they would need $24 billion worth of reductions in the total $63 billion in principal and interest that various branches of government owed creditors.
This article, filed from San Juan, showed up on The New York Times website on Monday sometime—and I thank Patricia Caulfield for sending it along.
In Canada, One Signal of 2008 Financial Crisis Is Flashing Again
In Canada, one of the first corners of the financial markets to start going haywire in the lead-up to 2008’s financial crisis is acting up again.
The difference between a measure of the rate at which Canadian banks are willing to lend to each other and short-term instruments reflecting expectations for the Bank of Canada’s benchmark spiked to the widest in seven years. The gap on Jan. 16 reached 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point. That’s the most since January 2009, when the world was in recession and just emerging from the previous year’s credit crunch.
The same move was seen in the buildup to that crisis. Where then it was led by a leap in borrowing costs between banks and large corporations, called the Canadian dollar offered rate, now it’s being led by a drop in overnight index swaps on speculation the central bank will cut its official rate as early as Wednesday. That rate now stands at 0.5 percentage point.
While last week’s jump doesn’t compare to the worst of 2008, and doesn’t portend a credit crunch, it suggests Canadian banks may find it harder to pass on the benefits of a central-bank rate cut with the country in the center of a global panic over slowing growth and collapsing oil prices, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. Oil is one of the country’s biggest exports.
“The markets are telling you there could be some risk of financial contagion,” he said by phone from Toronto. “And Canada certainly has a ‘For Sale’ sign on the front lawn.”
The above five paragraphs are all there is to this Bloomberg item that appeared on their Internet site at 8:57 a.m. Denver time yesterday morning—and it’s courtesy of Larry Galearis.
Deutsche Bank to Face British Lawsuit Over High-Speed Trading
Deutsche Bank, already troubled by lawsuits and official investigations, faces another challenge. A group of lawyers said on Monday that they planned to sue the company in British court, accusing the bank of using high-speed trading software to profit in foreign currency markets at the expense of customers.
The lawsuit is to be filed later this year on behalf of companies, investors and even some central banks that frequently buy and sell currencies. The lawsuit would mirror one filed in New York last month by some of the same law firms. That lawsuit asserts that Deutsche Bank used a software platform known as Autobahn to take advantage of millisecond changes in exchange rates to give clients worse prices than they were entitled to.
Deutsche Bank denied the claims in the lawsuit, saying in a statement Monday: “We disagree with the allegations and will be defending ourselves in court.”
The lawsuit was filed last month against Deutsche Bank in Federal District Court for the Southern District of New York. The class-action lawsuit attracted little notice in the media until the German magazine Der Spiegel reported it on Sunday.
This New York Times story, filed from Frankfurt, was posted on their website on Monday sometime—and it’s courtesy of Roy Stephens.
‘Biased, low quality, full of omissions’: Russia launches fresh attack on Dutch MH17 report
A senior Russian aviation official has presented new criticisms of the Dutch Safety Board’s (DSB) handling of the MH17 investigation and low quality of its “vague” final report on the crash in Ukrainian skies, which killed 298 people in July 2014.
“Russia would again like to draw attention to the bias of the DSB, the insufficient quality of the final report, and the omissions of important facts about the investigation by the Dutch side,” wrote the deputy head of the Russian aviation agency Rosavia, Oleg Storchevoy, in a column that appeared in the Dutch daily De Volkskrant on Tuesday.
Although the report, presented in October 2015, did not have the remit to apportion blame, it did conclude that the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 was brought down by a Russian-made Buk missile, and in public statements the DSB president Tjibbe Joustra has suggested it was fired from territories controlled by the anti-Kiev rebels. Moscow has rejected these claims, while the Buk manufacturer Almaz-Antey has unveiled an alternative report and results of full-scale experiment, which showed that an outdated model of one of its rockets, used by Kiev’s forces, was likely to blame.
Last week, Storchevoy wrote a public letter to the DSB, and held a press conference in Moscow during which he criticized investigators. He reiterated many of the points in the column, and particularly focused on Joustra, whom he called “incompetent.”
This news item appeared on the Russia Today website at 11:27 p.m. Moscow time on their Tuesday evening, which was 3:27 p.m. in Washington—EDT plus 8 hours. It’s the second contribution in a row from Roy Stephens.
Marc Faber puts China’s GDP at closer to 4% as exports slow, debt bubble looms
China’s economy isn’t growing anywhere near as fast as official figures suggest, perma-bear Marc Faber, told CNBC on Tuesday.
Speaking before the release of heavily anticipated Chinese growth figures for 2015, Faber, the publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, put the country’s growth at about 4 percent, far from the 7 percent Beijing was aiming for, or the 6.9 percent it achieved.
“An economy is very complex and you have some sectors of an economy expanding and some sectors contracting,” Faber told CNBC‘s Squawk Box. But he added, “My sense is that at very best, the economy is growing at around 4 percent per annum but it could be lower.”
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth on the mainland slowed to 6.9 percent in 2015, a 25-year low, figured released on Tuesday showed. Fourth-quarter GDP came in at 6.8 percent.
This 4:16 minute CNBC video interview showed up on their website around 4 a.m. on Tuesday morning EST—and there’s a transcript as well. I thank Ken Hurt for sharing it with us.
Hong Kong Dollar Plunges to Weakest Since Aug 2007
Modest overnight weakness in the Hong Kong Dollar has accelerated notably as the U.S. session starts with USD/HKD down 150 pips in the last hour, plunging to its weakest against the dollar since Aug 2007…
12 month forwards have been leading this collapse and still indicate HKD dropping to 7.8650, once again testing the weak-end of the HKD/USD peg band.
This tiny 1-chart Zero Hedge piece showed up on their Internet site at 10:32 a.m. EST yesterday morning—and I thank Richard Saler for this one.
World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteran
The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, a leading monetary theorist has warned.
“The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up,” said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD’s review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
“Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief,” he said.
“It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something,” he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
This absolute must read commentary by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard was filed from Davos—and showed up on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site at 9:00 p.m. Tuesday evening GMT, which was 4:00 p.m. in Washington—EDT plus 5 hours. This same story appeared in a GATA release last night—and Chris Powell rightfully gave it the headline “Central banker who admitted gold market rigging muses about debt jubilee”
The Global Plutocrats Meet in Davos: The Disease Pretending to Cure Itself
TAKE 1: Ahead of wealthy and powerful financial and political elites meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Oxfam released a report, titled “An Economy for the 1%,” highlighting global inequality “reaching new extremes.”
“The richest 1% now have more wealth than the rest of the world combined. Power and privilege is being used to skew the economic system to increase the gap between the richest and the rest,” it said.
“A global network of tax havens further enables the richest individuals to hide $7.6 trillion. The fight against poverty will not be won until the inequality crisis is tackled.”
TAKE 2: On Wednesday, some 2,500 corporate executives, celebrities and government officials will converge at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland to discuss “improving the state of the world” between skiing the alpine slopes and $1,000-a-plate gala dinners.
The heads of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and virtually every other major bank and hedge fund will rub shoulders with the government officials nominally in charge of regulating them, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew, Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
While the official topic of the discussion will be “Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution,” there can be little doubt that the topics of discussion will be more tangible and immediate. A conference document outlining the “global risks of highest concern” begins with the following items: “Unemployment or underemployment, Energy price shock, Fiscal crises, Failure of national governance, profound social instability, Failure of financial mechanism or institution, Asset bubble” and “interstate conflict.”
These fears are thoroughly justified. This year’s meeting takes place against the backdrop of the threat of a global stock sell-off, a collapse in commodity prices, deepening divisions within the European Union, as well as growing tensions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and the Pacific.
This longish, but very interesting 2-view take on Davos is certainly worth reading. The TAKE 2 version is probably closer to the truth, but the general public is being spoon-fed TAKE 1. This appeared on the greanvillepost.com Internet site yesterday—and it’s another offering from Roy Stephens.
De Beers to cut diamond prices in first sale of the year
De Beers cut diamond prices again in its first sale of the year as the world’s biggest producer seeks to counter a slowdown in demand, according to three people familiar with the process.
The Anglo American unit reduced prices by as much as 7%, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. De Beers plans to offer about $450 million of diamonds for sale, one of the people said. A spokesman for the company declined to comment.
Slower diamond jewellery sales in China, the biggest buyer after the US, and a credit crunch in the industry has sapped demand. That’s led to a buildup of diamonds held by cutters and traders, and forced the biggest producers to cut output and lower prices. Prices for the gems sank 18% last year, according to data from UK-based WWW International Diamond Consultants.
This short, but interesting Bloomberg story appeared on the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday.
Chinese Gold Association figures equate domestic gold demand to SGE withdrawals
It seems to take an awful long time for the publication to appear, but now the Chinese Gold Association (CGA) has published, in Chinese, its 2014 Gold Yearbook and its figures for China’s gold demand that year, and for China’s gold imports, differ strongly from those put out by major precious metals consultancies such as GFMS (which also provided data to the World Gold Council that year), Metals Focus (which is current data provider for the WGC), and CPM Group – the most prominent U.S. based precious metals consultancy. The report on the latest CGA figures to be published came from who else but precious metals chart guru, Nick Laird of www.Sharelynx.com, who monitors China figures extremely closely, and who also published an image from the yearbook showing the actual table from the report
For 2014 for example, the WGC (whose figures seem to be taken as gospel by the world’s major media outlets) reported mainland Chinese gold consumption that year at 813.6 tonnes. The CGA yearbook stated the total Chinese gold demand figure at 2,106 tonnes – which is actually extremely close to the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) withdrawals figure for the same year at 2,102 tonnes. (For 2013 CGA total demand figures were also almost identical to SGE withdrawal figures for that year.) Now while the categorisation of what should actually be included in the WGC consumer demand figure may differ somewhat from what is included in the CGA total demand figure, the 2014 difference of 1,292 tonnes between the two sources stretches belief. Either the WGC (using GFMS figures) got it hugely wrong, or the China Gold Association is including all kinds of things which the WGC isn’t in its calculations.
Almost since it’s inception, it’s been the belief of many in the GATA camp that the supply/demand figures from GFMS, CPM Group—and now the new kid on the block, Metals Focus, are not be trusted. Lawrie is firmly in that camp as well, as the facts of the case are obvious for all to see. As Winston Churchill said—“The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.”
The price management scheme in the precious metals would also be covered by that Winston’s quote. But the above organizations, including the WGC, The Silver Institute—and the miners themselves—can take comfort from this next Churchill quote—“Man will occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of the time he will pick himself up and continue on as if nothing every happened.” This must read commentary put in an appearance on the Sharps Pixley website yesterday sometime.
The PHOTOS and the FUNNIES
The WRAP
[On Friday], there was another 124,000 oz of metal deposited into the big gold ETF, GLD, and another 1.4 million oz of silver removed from the big silver ETF, SLV; thus continuing the marked contrast of recent weeks. The deposits of gold make sense in that gold has been steady to higher in price and trading volume in GLD heavier than it had been; all pointing to net investor buying which would require additional metal deposits. Nothing unusual. It is the pattern in SLV that has been most unusual.
While gold has slightly outperformed silver on a relative price basis, it is closer to the truth to say that gold and silver price action for the past ten weeks has been largely flat – with gold on either side of $1,080 and silver straddling $14. Given all that is happening in the world, it is not surprising investors would be buying, or at least not selling; so the additions to GLD seem reasonable. But metal should not be leaving the SLV and all things considered, the most reasonable explanation is a deliberate conversion of shares to metal for the purpose of concealing ownership. Obviously, small investors would have no need to deploy this process, so it indicates the likely presence of a large investor. — Silver analyst Ted Butler: 16 January 2016
I made the comment in The Wrap last night that I wasn’t sure whether the highs in the precious metals during the first hour of trading in London on their Tuesday morning were going to be the highs of the day or not, but that turned out to be the case.
Gold closed above both its 20 and 50-day moving averages for the ninth trading day in a row.
Silver broke above its 20-day moving average—and closed right at its 50-day moving average. Those two averages are only a dime apart, so not too much should be read into yesterday’s price move except for the fact that ‘da boyz’ are anxious to keep a lid on the silver price, and the bulk of the Managed Money traders on the short side, as it has been trading more or less sideways for two month now. Although the 20-day moving average in silver has been broken on more than one occasion, that break was usually reversed within 24 hours. But what we’re waiting for is beyond me—and Ted is still waiting for this to get resolved to the upside. But as I’ve said on several occasions in the past—and what the 6-month silver chart below shows—is that JPMorgan et al have silver in a holding pattern at the moment.
Platinum closed at a new 7-year low on Monday while the American markets were closed, but rallied a bit above it yesterday, but it’s still miles below its 20 and 50-day moving averages, which are only two bucks apart around the $865 spot mark.
As far as palladium is concerned, it bounced off its 7-year low tick on Tuesday, January 12—and has been rallying since—and is currently $47 off its $450 low tick.
Copper closed off it’s multi-year low yesterday as well, but only just. Crude oil, of course, closed at a new low below $30 the barrel—a price not seen since back in late 2003. Here’s the 20-year WTIC chart courtesy of Nick Laird—and I’m sorry, but the ‘click to enlarge‘ feature still isn’t working.
And here are the 6-month chart for the Big 6+1 commodities—and along with the precious metals, the Managed Money traders are loaded up to the gunwales on the short side in both copper and crude oil as well. These charts, courtesy of stockcharts.com, come complete with their respective 20 and 50-day moving averages.
And as I write this paragraph, the London open is about ten minutes away—and I note that gold has been chopping quietly higher ever since trading began in the Far East on their Wednesday morning—and is currently up 6 dollars. Silver didn’t do much in Far East trading but, like gold, began to rally shortly after 3 p.m. Hong Kong time, however barely made it up a dime before being capped, at least for the moment. Platinum was down 7 bucks at one point, but gained 3 of that back in its tiny rally. Platinum got sold down 4 dollars during Far East trading, but is back at unchanged during the last thirty minutes of trading.
Net HFT gold volume is around the 20,500 contract mark—and there isn’t much roll-over activity. That number in silver is pretty light at 3,750 contracts. The dollar index made it as low as 98.75 shortly after 3 p.m. Hong Kong time, but has rallied a bit off that low—and is only down 22 basis points as London opens.
Yesterday, at the close of COMEX trading, was the cut-off for this Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report—and I would guess we’ll see a bit of improvement in the Commercial net short position in gold, but some deterioration in silver when the report comes out on Friday afternoon. There should be big improvements in platinum, copper and WTIC.
But as to when we’re going to see a resolution to the upside in these extreme short positions, I haven’t a clue. However, as Ted Butler keeps pointing, the resolution has to come sooner or later—and the only thing not known is whether JPMorgan et al will stand back and let prices rise in short covering rallies of biblical proportions, or if it will be the ‘same old, same old’.
And as I post today’s column on the website at 4:05 a.m. EST, I see that besides the fact that the stock markets in Japan, China and Hong Kong got hammered, oil is down another dollar a barrel—and the European stock markets opened sharply lower as well.
Gold is up 9 dollars, but struggling, as “da boyz” are obviously throwing whatever COMEX paper necessary at the price to prevent it from exploding upwards—and the same can be said of silver, which is now only up 7 cents the ounce at the moment. Both platinum and palladium have been sold down—and the former is down 8 dollars and the latter by 5 bucks.
Net HFT volume in gold is sitting at 26,500 contracts—and that number in silver 4,700 contracts. The dollar index is down 37 basis points.
I have no idea what to expect for the remainder of the Wednesday session, but it could be ugly on Wall Street today—and it’s a sure bet that the Plunge Protection Team will be at battle stations right at the open, so absolutely nothing will surprise me when I check the charts later this morning.
It certainly appears that ‘Great Unwind’ is now upon us.
I’m off to bed—and I’ll see you here on Thursday sometime.
Ed
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