In 2010, Nissan introduced the LEAF to the marketplace, followed closely by the first generation Chevy Volt. If you were an electric car advocate back then, the future looked bright indeed. What does the electric car market look like today?
5 years later, electric cars represent less than 1% of total US sales (and that includes plug-in hybrids). Nissan and Chevrolet are getting ready to roll out second generation versions of the LEAF and the Volt. Other than that, it is same old, same old – a flock of low end “compliance cars” for the tree huggers on the Left Coast and a whole host of really expensive, ultra high end electric cars at the top of the market.
Audi, Mercedes and BMW are tripping all over themselves to respond to the Tesla Model S and Model X. But where are the fleets of affordable electric cars we were promised 5 years ago?
Chevrolet is well along with the development of its small, 200 mile Chevy Bolt that is scheduled to sell for $37,500. Tesla says it will have its 200 mile, $35,000 Model 3 ready to go by 2017. But judging by Tesla’s track record, that car is more likely to appear in 2018 or even 2019. And while it may start at $35,000, most people think it will have an average out the door price of closer to $45,000 – or more. A new Nissan LEAF that is said to have much greater range is somewhere in the pipeline.
So, is that it? Is this what the promise of electric cars has come to? A collection of very expensive small cars and a gaggle of super-expensive electric cars for the wealthy to impress their friends with? Where are the cars that ordinary citizens can buy, the ones that are priced to compete with the Honda Civics and Toyota Corollas of the world? Hmmm…..don’t see any of them anywhere, do you?
There are two factors holding the market for electric cars back. One, the price of batteries is too high. Two, the charging infrastructure for electric cars is still in its infancy. Tesla has taken the lead with its Supercharger network and it should be applauded for doing so. But the others are still wrangling about what shape the plug on the end of charging cables should be. Tesla has 125 kW chargers for super-fast charging. The best the other guys have is a 50 kW so-called “fast charger” that really isn’t all that fast.
When it comes to electric cars for the masses, the industry seems to be waiting around for someone to invent cheaper batteries. The revolution we were promised has been put on indefinite hold.
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