THE FLEXPERT v14.6 – Week 6 FLEX Rankings
Tilt /tilt/ v.
1. to hold poised for attack, as a lance.
2. Poker term for a state of mental or emotional confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive.
– Wikipedia (So you know it’s true!)
I’m not too concerned with the first definition. Unless, of course, I’m settling a dispute through a joust.
It can be difficult to avoid going on a tilt rampage at the poker table. The best players can suppress it, but even they succumb to the emotional agony that accompanies a bad beat like, oh lets say, getting aces cracked by a four-card flush from another set of aces. It’s maddening. Personally, nothing puts me on tilt more than getting a sneaky two-pair counterfeited on the river, knowing it happened and paying it off anyway. I just can’t help myself. And it sends me into a visceral rage. If it weren’t for uncontrollable bad luck, I’d have triple the chips currently sitting in front of me. That pisses me off. Those are MY CHIPS. Frankly, it’s a pretty moronic way to assess the situation since poker chips should be treated like money. And, as Omar Little is quick to point out, “Money ain’t got no owners, only spenders.” I’d insist he reassure me every time I forget, but I’m not foolish enough to confuse him with a man that repeats himself.
All the strategery and instant probability conversions that went into accumulating those chips in the first place don’t matter anymore. That would take patience and a clear mind, two things that won’t GET MY CHIPS BACK RIGHT NOW!!! If the next two cards dealt my way A) Can connect to make a straight B) Are suited C) Include a face card D) Aren’t exposed – I can assure you – I’m about to make a really stupid decision; one which, generally, results in a brief cig break and drink order (nothing less than a triple) followed by a stop at the ATM. The worst part? Knowing, even as it’s occurring, that’s it’s an awful idea. I’ve made myself weak, and it’s visible. Identifying who’s on tilt is extremely easy; it becomes more transparent if they’re trying to hide it.
That’s how people know to take advantage, and sharks gonna be sharks.
However, tilting isn’t exclusive to poker. It manifests itself in Fantasy Football every week, mainly in the form of bench mistakes and impulse trades. You should never punish yourself in hindsight for making a correct decision that doesn’t work out. If you pushed all-in with two aces and get called by two kings and lose, you can’t be mad about that. Put in the exact situation again, would you really play it differently? No. And you can’t be furious with your opponent for calling with kings. Everyone calls with kings, except Sam Barnhart.
Week 6: Ranks Debate | Sell Highs | Buy Lows | FAAB Bids | RB Adds
Week 6 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST
More Week 6: Bye/Injury Pickups | Survivor Picks | Points Against
I used Washington’s defense two Thursdays ago against the Giants. It wasn’t because the Redskins’ defense is amazing, since it’s clearly not. No, it had to do with home defenses consistently killing it in the Fantasy points department on Thursday nights. The numbers showed it really didn’t matter if they were fierce defensive units or not. Washington D/ST scored negative four Fantasy points. It happens. Sometimes you gather the facts, place yourself in the best position to succeed and end up failing regardless. This is Fantasy football; some variation of this scenario happens 100 times every week, to every single Fantasy player. Dealing with the aftermath is how we all differ. Did Washington’s debilitating performance deter me from streaming Green Bay’s D/ST in Week 5? Absolutely not. I refused to let it get to me. It’s a high-probability strategy; of course I was going to continue exploiting it. Although, understanding it’s high-probability, not absolute, likely helped with that.
Playing Calvin Johnson last week and witnessing his exit from the field after re-aggravating the same ankle that gave us so much pause all week put many Fantasy owners on tilt. I wasn’t affected. All pregame reports and information pointed to Megatron not acting as merely a decoy against the Bills, but a return to his regular, awesome self. It’s my fault for trusting said reports and information.
If I hopped in Glover Cleveland’s Presidential Time Machine and went back to the exact moment when I decided to keep Johnson in my lineup over Louis Murphy, with only the same info I had to work with then, I’d do it again. I suppose, eventually, I’d enter a Groundhog Day time loop until I didn’t make the wrong choice. But, that’s a matter best left for those with a Ph.D in theoretical pop-culture illusionary to flesh out, not me. I’m simply an amateur.
You know what would have put me on tilt, though? Starting Murphy over Johnson and watching Murphy not get a single target while Megatron goes all Megatron on my bench, and losing because of it. Emotion would have taken over and I likely would have blown up my team – unwisely – in a moment of pure frustration. Just because you get lucky and get rewarded for a poor decision doesn’t mean you should double-down on it. That’s how “too cute” lineup moves are born. For sustainable positive results, the worst thing that can happen to your Fantasy season is benefiting from a dumb choice the first time you make one. Now you want to do it every time. While I don’t believe in things like “due” or a “winner’s mentality” in sports, relying on those decision-making tactics will make you a loser.
A thought like, “MAN, if I had just played DeSean Jackson over Antonio Brown I would have won, I’LL DO IT THIS WEEK!!!” should never cross your mind. That’s faulty logic. DeSean Jackson is a pure “tilt player.” Just not for me so much, but in general. I’ve square danced with DJAX enough to know what I’m getting: crippling inconsistency. He’ll hurt you. After years of emotional abuse, I am no longer duped by the allure of his “upside.” Everyone has players specific to them.
Reggie Bush is my guy. Oh Reggie, I wish I knew how to quit you. (FYI: The Brokeback Mountain score is one of the best in movie history.) To me, Bush is like a pack of cigarettes: I know he’s slowly killing me, but I’m addicted.
Fantasy talents like Bush and Jackson are true tilt players; Demaryius Thomas should never put you on tilt. He’s too consistently good. You’re always going to play DT, regardless of matchup. If he sucks, you’re still playing him the next week, no questions asked. It’s the next tier below where the tilting starts: the boom or bust guys. The ones you always start when they post two points and have seated on the bench when they score three times.
For years, Joey Galloway was that guy for me. Fortunately, Joey did the humane thing and retired. He can’t inflict any more pain on me. The bad news is there’s always going to a passel of players injecting misery in my life.
Mayo’s 2014 All-Tilt Team
QB: Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick
RB: Reggie Bush, Shane Vereen, Pierre Thomas, C.J. Spiller
WR: Andre Johnson, Justin Hunter, Cordarrelle Patterson, Roddy White, Michael Crabtree
TE: Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron
So, who are your biggest tilt players? Let me know. We’ll create a support group and overcome these problems, TOGETHER!
#BINGEWATCH
It’s really too bad I blew my Twin Peaks load in Week 1. It really would have been timely right about now.
Instead, I’ll direct you to one of my favorite Saturday morning cartoons from the ’90s, The Tick. With it’s pencil animation, masked adult humor and hilarious hero/supervillains, its 36 episodes are assuredly bingeable over a weekend. Live, laugh, move on. And if you’re not sucked in by the Evil Midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight, honestly, I don’t know what’s wrong with you. Maybe you just hate humor.
SEEK HELP, BABY!!!
WEEK 6 Top 20 QBs (Most Updated QB RANKS)
Peyton Manning
I’m Philip Rivers?
Aaron Rodgers’
Smokin’ Jay Cutler
Eli Manning Face
Matt Ryan
Andrew Luck
Nick Foles
Russell Wilson
Ben Roethlisberger
Matthew Stafford
HELLO JOE Flacco. Iron helps him play!
CAAAAMMMMMMMMMMM
Chef Hoyardee
Andy “GINGERVITUS” Dalton
“Secret Bald” Mike Glennon
Ryan Tannehill
Tom Brady
Teddy Throwsevelt
“Gonzo” Colin Kaepernick
EARLY GAME WATCHABILITY INDEX
NE/BUF
PIT/CLE
DET/MIN
CAR/CIN
BAL/TB
GB/MIA
JAX/TEN
DEN/NYJ
SUICIDE LAYUP
CIN over CAR
WEEK 6 D/ST RANKS
SEA
DEN
TEN
ARZ
SD
HOU
BUF
NE
CIN
DET
SUPERLOCK
CIN (-7)
THE REVENGE SOCIETY
Andre Roberts at ARZ
Eric Decker vs DEN
Devin Hester vs CHI
QUICK READS
What do Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins and Austin Davis have in common? Two things: (1) they’re all scrubs and (2) they each tossed multiple passing scores against the Eagles. Which brings us to Eli Manning. Eli is averaging over two touchdowns and 7.5 yards per attempt over Giants’ past three games, and even though he’s only cracked 300 yards once in five tries, the Eagles’ pitiful secondary should assist him in surpassing that number handily. Don’t forget, this game is in PRIMMMEEEE TIMMMEEEEE. And prime time games are hitting the over above an 85-percent clip this season. Oh, numbers.
With Rashad Jennings sidelined, most have gone mental over Andre Williams’ potential breakout. Please, temper expectations – GET THE NET!!! Most of the running back damage done against Philly this season has been through the air. This isn’t great news for Williams and his Alfred Morris hands. There’s a real chance he actually hides bricks inside his gloves like a Cuban boxer. He’ll get his 15-20 carries, and that’s valuable, no doubt. But, he’s going to need to score to have a legit impact in Week 6 because the yardage won’t be there. I’d wager Peyton Hillis gets more work than you’d expect if the Giants are forced to the air early.
If you play in any league that forces you to own a maximum at a position or doesn’t use FAAB bidding to conduct business on the waiver wire, do yourself a favor, and join a new league. When God gives you lemons, YOU FIND A NEW GOD!!!!
The Broncos unleashed Demaryius Thomas last week and finally got him going. Now, it’s Wes Welker’s turn. His first week back, Welk played 47 snaps. Last week, he ran 47 routes, about equal with Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders,confirming he’s back to full strength. And with the Broncos injury situation in the backfield coupled with the Jets strong run defense and lack of coverage linebackers, expect Peyton Manning to be putting the ball in the air upwards of 40-50 times, with around 12 of those passes breaching Welker’s personal space. That opportunity will be enough to make him a Top 20 WR.
Joe Flacco is inconsistent and untrustworthy. He’s the bad boy of Fantasy quarterbacks. And, his Eugene Levyesque eyebrows only support that case, as does his resemblance to Sesame Street’s Bert. But this is a week to throw him in your lineup if you need some help. Tampa’s given up a trifecta of aerial scores in each of the past three games. Now, those games were away from the pirate ship, but this secondary is porous at best. Treat the Bucs D like telemarketers do old people, exploit them.
Some do not consider Delanie Walker an every week starter at tight end. Those people, sorry to say, are morons. #SorryNotSorry. It’s your own fault for not bowing to Delanie’s majesty. Consider this – Walker has scored AT LEAST 8.7 PPR points every week, and the situation is setting up perfectly for him. Walker owns the second lowest aDOT of any Titans receiving option, and when your starting QB can’t close his hand, or is Charlie Whitehurst, standing as close to them as possible is going to result in plenty of opportunities. Plus, against a similar offense in Washington: one possession guy, two stretch threats and a seam tight end, Jacksonville couldn’t figure out how to cover Niles Paul. And Walker, he’s much better than Paul.
Raise your hand if Calvin Johnson has [redacted] you the last two weeks. Let me see those hands. It’s been brutal. Hopefully the Lions do the smart thing and let him rest so he can return to being the top receiver in Fantasy two weeks from now. In the mean time, Golden Tate is a wide receiver one. In Megatron’s two decoy games, GTIII’s averaging 7.5 catches on 10 targets and 125 yards. That’s not going to change against the Vikings, who allow the sixth highest completion percentage against and have ceded a touchdown to a slot receiver in four straight games.
Need a sleeper for deep league or big man selling for a scrub price in DFS? I suggest taking a gander at Chase Ford. Here are some fun Chase Ford facts:
He plays for the Vikings.
Teddy Throwsevelt is going to be back under center for the Vikings, and he ranks 29th in QB aDOT – tight ends are like diamonds to quarterbacks, a girl’s best friend.
Ford’s ran pass routes on 91.4-percent of his snaps.
Chase is a reasonably cool name.
Sounds pretty good, right? It only gets better. Because the Lions generate so much pressure with their front four and clog interior running lanes so well, RBs and TEs account for a high percentage of targets against them. Sunday against the Bills, that group saw 22 targets versus Detroit. Ford’s not a must play, but he’s certainly a Fantasy John Turturo at the position in Week 6 – I fear we underrate his sneakiness.
Need a D/ST? I’ll keep it simple. Take Tennessee at home against the Jags. Jacksonville’s ceded double-digit Fantasy points to the opposing D/ST every week, and more than 14 Fantasy points in four of five weeks. The Titans D isn’t great, but they’ll be made to look that way this week. MOVING ON!!!
Fred Jackson’s ankle issues are somewhat concerning, but all reports point FJAX being active against the Patriots. If that’s the case you’ll wanna have him in. New England is giving up 132 rushing yards per game in divisional contests since the beginning of last year, and the Bills will exploit that. Outdoors this season, Buffalo has been perfectly balanced. Throwing 88 times, rushing 88 times. Indoors, they pass two times to every one rush. Meaning, there’s gonna be enough work to go around. If Jackson can’t go, C.J. Spiller vaults into the Top 10 at RB. He’s averaged over 20 PPR points per game since the start of 2012 in games without Jackson.
Don’t be suckered into thinking the Steelers’ defense is of high quality. It ain’t. Yes, they’ve already squared off with the Browns this season, but now they have to hit the road and deal with the surging BRIAN HOYER. Hoyer doesn’t come with a ton a of upside, but if you need a fill in, he’s widely available and makes sure you tread water at QB for the week. He’s coming off his best game of the season in Tennessee, and the Browns’ offensive scheme has shown a propensity to toss it in the red zone. Stupid Face Jordan Cameron Travis Benjamin, anyone? Chef Hoyardee is averaging 18 Fantasy points in the last two weeks and appears to be gelling with his speedy, but undersized receiving corps. He’s a risky start, but a hardy one.
It’s no guarantee Donald Brown’s new found case of the dizzies will keep him out against the Raiders, buttttttttttt it’s lookin’ that way. This leaves the bulk of touches bestowed upon Branden Oliver, in a very juicy matchup. And, you can expect a lot of them. San Diego’s fifth in rushing attempts for 2014 and combine those touches with Oliver’s pass catching prowess and it makes him a must play. Oh, you think he’ll need to stand back and block? Think again. Oliver is only being asked to pick up a blitzer on one of every ten snaps when he’s on the field. Eventually, the Chargers running situation will return to full health, but not this week. Just beware of Shaun Draughn or Ronnie Brown hamburgling a TD. That would be the worst.
You should know by now playing receivers against the Eagles is Fantasy Ovaltine. Many will instinctively gravitate toVictor Cruz in search of a big week, which could very well happen. But, I’d rather side with the consistency of Rueben Randle. While Cruz’s production has more peaks and valleys than a sine curve, Randle has covertly piled up more catches than Kelvin Benjamin and seen more targets than both Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffery over the past three weeks. And most importantly, Randle has the most end zone targets of any receiver in the league — 12. That’s one more than Antonio Brown. Cruz probably has a higher ceiling than Randle, but I simply don’t trust him as much at this point. Plus, Philly’s been gashed by possession receivers over vertical threats so far this season.
PPR WEEK 6 FLEX RANKINGS
NOTE: PPR scoring only truly affects outliers. PPR Ranks and Standard Ranks are similar with the exception extreme reception magnets like Pierre Thomas, Justin Forsett & Darren Sproles (PPR Positive) and the stonehanded Alfred Morris, Frank Gore & Stevan Ridley (PPR Negative).
Week 6: Ranks Debate | Sell Highs | Buy Lows | FAAB Bids | RB Adds
Week 6 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST
More Week 6: Bye/Injury Pickups | Survivor Picks | Points Against
Pat Mayo Hour – Week 6 Rankings Debate w/ Jake Ciely
Subscribe on iTunes
SHUNNED!!!: Ray Rice
RESHUNNED!!!: Adrian Peterson
Probable: Andre Johnson (Ankle), Jamaal Charles (Ankle), Doug Martin (Knee), Ben Tate (Knee), Arian Foster (Hammy), Fred Jackson (Ankle), Delanie Walker (Shoulder), Joique Bell (Dizzies)
Questionable: A.J. Green (Toe) Brandon Marshall (Ankle), Harry Douglas (Foot), Tavon Austin (Knee), Marvin Jones (Ankle), Eric Decker (Hammy), Maurice Jones-Drew (Hand), Knowshon Moreno (Elbow), Reggie Bush (Knee), Jordan Reed (Hammy), Vance McDonald (Knee), Joseph Fauria (Ankle), Ladarius Green (Hammy)
Doubtful [Not Ranked]: Calvin Johnson (Ankle), Mike Evans (AHHHH MY Groin), Marqise Lee (Ankle), Rashad Jennings (Knee), Deangelo Williams (Thigh), Joique Bell (Dizzies), Donald Brown (Concussion), Jonathan Stewart (Leg), Cecil Shorts (Hammy), Vernon Davis (Ankle/Back)
Out: Ryan Mathews (Knee), Montee Ball (Knee)
Keep Stashing: Josh Gordon (Suspension)
Matt Forte
Antonio Brown
A.J. Green
Julio Jones
Demaryius Thomas
Alshon Jeffery
Jordy Nelson
Randall Cobb
Dez Bryant
Le’Veon Bell
Arian Foster
Marshawn Lynch
Julius Thomas
Vincent Jackson
Golden Tate III
Emmanuel Sanders
Brandon Marshall
#GRONKSMASH
STEVE SMIFF SEÑOR
Kelvin BenJAMIN’
Jeremy Maclin
Percy Harvin
Gio Bernard
LeSean McCoy
Eddie Lacy
Andre Ellington
Julian Edelman
Brian Quick
Wesley Welker
Roddy White
Rueben Randle
Greg Olsen
Delanie Walker
DeMarco Murray, Present
Branden Oliver
Darren Sproles
Fred Jackson
Keenan Allen
Victor Cruz
Ahmad Bradshaw
Frank Gore
Justin Forsett
Ben Tate
Reggie Bush X
Lamar THRILLER (Special Guest Rank: Jake Ciely)
Mike Wallace
Michael Floyd
Andrew Hawkins
The Wreck of the Larry Fitzgerald
DeAndre Hopkins
Sammy Watkins
Andre Johnson
Kendall Wright
Antonio Gates
Martellus Bennett
Larry Donnell
Matt Asiata
Chris Ivory
Zac Stacy. Film Credits: “Super Mario Bros.” as Goomba
Alfred Morris
Ronnie Hillman
Doug Martin
C.J. Spiller
Joique Bell
Michael CRABPEOPLE!!!
James Jones
Eric Decker
Pierre Garçon
T.Y. “Gene Mean” Hilton
Reggie Wayne
Malcom Floyd
Allen Robinson
DeSean Jackson
Jarius Wright
Terrance Williams
Cordarrelle Patterson
LOUIS MURPHY!!!!!
Miles Austin 316
Allen Hurns
Justin Hunter
Markus Wheaton
Brandon LaFell Sexwell
Anquan Boldin
John Brown
Eddie Royal
The New ODB, Odell Beckham Jr.
Jordan Matthews
Andre Roberts
Shane Vereen
Steven Jackson
Andre Williams
Jordan Cameron
Zach Ertz
Owen Daniels
Jason Witten
Jordan Reed
Heath Miller
Chris Johnson
Knowshon Moreno
Jeremy Hill
Bishop Sankey
Shonn Greene
Darrin Reaves
Stevan Ridley
Riley Cooper
Clay Harbor
Chase Ford
Niles Paul
Charles Dice Clay
Dwayne Allen
Tim Wright
Luke Wilson
Brian Hartline
Taylor “Sledgehammer” Gabriel
Mohamed Sanu
Robert Woods
Andre Holmes
MARV Jones
Darren McFadden
Trent Richardson (Special Guest Rank: Jake Ciely)
Jerick McKinnon
C.J. Anderson
Antone Smith
Carlos Hyde
Lorenzo Taliaferro
Benny Cunningham, and his wife, Oprah
Terrence West
Toby Gerhart
Bobby Blame it on the Rainey
Roy Helu Jr.
Peyton Hills
Torrey Smith
Greg Jennings
Isaiah Crowell
THE OG DAWG – Chris Ogbonnaya
Maurice Jones-Drew
Ka’Deem Carey
LeGarrette Blount
Denard Dog Robinson
Fozzy Wozzy Whittaker
Bernard Pierce
Jacquizz Rodgers
James Starks
“High Speed” Kenny Britt
Nasty Nate Washington
The Walls of Jerricho Cotchery
Davante Adams
Jason Avant
Doug Baldwin
Jarrett Boykin
Stevie Johnson
Jeremy Kerley
Hakeem Nicks
Travis All About the Benjamins
Harry Douglas
Jeremy Ross
Eric Ebron
Garrett Graham
Coby Fleener
Ladarius Green
Mychal Rivera
Scott Chandler
Alfred Blue
Robert Turbin
Dexter McCluster: Telling you not to LOL and Drive
Storm Johnson
Lance Dunbar
Chris Polk
Marcel Reece
Stepfan Taylor
Anthony Dixon
James White
Jonathan Grimes (Or, Grimey, as he likes to be called)
Jordan Todman
Juwan Thompson
Marlon Brown
Jermaine Kearse
Mike Williams
Ace Sanders
Devin Hester
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
John Carlson
Levine Trololo
Brandon Myers
Jermaine Gresham
Anthony Fasano
Derek Carrier
Jace Amaro
Andrew Quarless
Greg Salas
Denarius Moore
Lance Moore
Donte Moncrief
Stedman Bailey
Danny Amendola
Brandon Gibson
Santonio Holmes
Tavon Austin
Country Music Sensation Griff Whalen
Damaris Johnson
Rishard Matthews
Kyle Juszczyk
Devonta Freeman
George Winn
Chris Givens
Frankie Hammond
Brandon Lloyd
Cody Latimer
Aaron Dobson
Ryan Broyles
Marquise Goodwin
David Nelson
Kenbrell Thompkins
Jarvis Landry
Jeff Cumberland
Brent Celek
Brandon Bostick
Chris Gragg
Brandon Pettigrew
James Casey
Rhett Ellison
Cole Beasley
Da’Rick Rogers
Andre Caldwell
Christine Michael
Tre Mason
Jalen Parmele
Tauren Poole
Silas Redd
Joseph Randle
Latavius Murray
Bilal POWWWWell
Leon Washington
Silas Redd
Mike James
Brandon Bolden
Daniel Herron
Dri Archer #DANGERZONE
Theo Riddick
Bryce Brown
Kris Durham
WORST PLACE!!!
Oh, hai Mark Ingram
Lamar THRILLER
Second Worst RB of all time, Trent Richardson
Jared Cook
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