By Kevin ‘KT’ Turner | @ktfuntweets
As we wrap up the regular season of the 2015 NFL Draft, I always enjoy looking back at the hits and misses of the NFL Draft. Now that i’m evaluating players every year for the draft with Jeff Cavanaugh and Bryan Broaddus, i’m even more fascinated by the hits and misses, and which players end up fitting in with the organization that selected them.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Jameis Winston
-Heading in to Week 17, he’s got 22 TD passes and 13 INTs, while leading his team to 6 wins. More importantly, he only has 3 games where he threw more than one interception. Jameis was always really pro-ready, and I liked him quite a bit more than Marcus Mariota. I think we’ll see nothing but improvement over the next ten years from the former controversial Florida State QB. He still makes a few occasional poor throws, but what Buccaneer QB over the last 10 years hasn’t? He turned out to be a great selection, and I think will prove to be an above average NFL quarterback for the duration of his career. VERDICT: HIT
Tennessee Titans: QB Marcus Mariota
-He’s missed a few games due to injury, but heading into Week 17 in 12 starts, he’s posted 19 TD passes and recorded 10 interceptions. What’s fascinating to me is his yards per attempt is just under 8 yards, the same as Winston’s at 7.6 YPA. Coming out of college, the one thing holding me back on Mariota was his ability to deliver the ball down the field, simply because he didn’t zip it down the field much at Oregon. I had fear that he was a system quarterback, and that may still be true, but he’s shown the ability to adapt. He plays on a poor team, who lost their head coach in the middle of the season. Through it all he’s proven that he is a “franchise QB” and the Titans did right by selecting him with the #2 pick. VERDICT: HIT
Jacksonville Jaguars: EDGE Dante Fowler
-The poor guy tore his ACL in training camp, but I loved his college tape so much, I feel very confident he’ll make a full recovery and become a force on that Jaguars defense. VERDICT: HIT
Oakland Raiders: WR Amari Cooper
-Heading into week 17, he’s started 14 games for the Raiders, proving to be the go-to guy for Derek Carr. He’s got 70 catches for over a thousand yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s been targeted 125 times. In 9 of his games he’s caught more than 5 passes. Carr to Cooper will be one of the more fun QB/WR duos over the next 10 years! VERDICT: HIT
Washington Redskins: OG Brandon Scherff
-Coming out of college we studied his college tape at Iowa, where he was playing tackle. The consensus among Broaddus, Jeff, and I was that he’s more suited to be a guard at the NFL level. While I think taking a guard as a top 5 pick is a little rich, I can’t argue with the strategy by the Redskins. They plugged him in at guard, and he’s played all season long, and he’ll get some playoff experience too. Scherff was never one of my favorite players in the draft, but for all intents and purposes, it’s worked out well for Washington. VERDICT: HIT
New York Jets: DL Leonard Williams
-I was originally surprised that he fell all the way to 6. Christmas came in the spring for Todd Bowles, when the Jets selected Williams. Imagine the joy on Coach Bowles face when management said, “hey coach, here’s a guy you can play on the interior or the exterior of your defensive line. He can stop the run and add some pass rush. I know you already have a bunch of good defensive lineman, but here’s another. Now let’s go make the playoffs!” It’s sort of unfair, how much talent that D-line has, and Leonard only added to it. Great pick! VERDICT: HIT
Chicago Bears: WR Kevin White
-Multiple injuries, most notably a stress fracture in his left shin kept Kevin White off the playing surface in 2015. While I gave Dante Fowler a free pass because of an ACL, I can’t do that for the Bears here just because the Jaguars were in clear rebuild mode. The Bears, while not seen as an elite NFC team, were not rebuilding. They were trying to win games, and needed a player to fill the void after trading Brandon Marshall. The future can still be bright for Kevin White, but for now…..VERDICT: MISS
Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Vic Beasley
-I initially thought he was a touch overrated. Not to see he’s a bad player or anything like that, but my evaluation of this player was as a late first round type of guy, not a Top 10 guy. He’s come on of late, most notably in the Falcons Week 16 win over the undefeated Panthers. Through it all, he’s played in every game this year, and has applied 4 sacks and 20 tackles, along with a couple of forced fumbles. While the future is clearly bright for Beasley, for the sake of this exercise, i’m going to label him a…VERDICT: HIT (If you’re reading closely, you’d know that I really wanted to label this as a miss, but I think he’ll contribute to this defense at a high level for years to come)
New York Giants: OT Ereck Flowers
-I liked Flowers coming out because of his brute upper body strength and ability to kind of stonewall rushers by using the force and length in his arms. I saw him as a guy who would be better served at right tackle, and as more of a late first round pick. He’s played primarily at LT for the Giants this year due to the injury of Will Beatty and he has had his ups and downs. I personally thought he was over drafted here, but still liked the player as a whole. I just don’t like him at LT, where he’s being asked to protect Eli Manning’s blind side. I’m not making excuses for the kid, but he’s been battling ankle injuries as well. He’s a starting tackle in this league, I just probably needs to be RT. Then again, he’s a starter. VERDICT: HIT
St. Louis Rame: RB Todd Gurley
-This one can be short and sweet. The Todd is going to be the best RB in the league for a long time. VERDICT: HIT
Minnesota Vikings: CB Trae Waynes
-This is a difficult one, because he hasn’t found a way to consistently get on the field. With just 1 start, it’s really hard to call him a hit. I think he’ll be fine, but at #11 in the draft, you want some immediate impact at a position like CB. VERDICT: MISS
Cleveland Browns: DT Danny Shelton
-One of my favorite defensive lineman from the draft because of his athleticism given his size, Shelton has been pretty disappointing. It’s hard to call him a bust because he has played in every game, but he’s only posted 19 tackles and 16 assisted tackles as the Browns head into Week 17. I thought he was a plug and play, make an impact type of guy, and he just hasn’t consistently done that. Man, getting drafted by Cleveland is such a jinx. VERDICT: MISS
New Orleans Saints: OT Andrus Peat
-I personally didn’t even have a first round grade on Peat, so you can imagine my feelings when he was taken in the first half of the 1st round of the draft. Going to Week 17 he’s only started 8 games, and they’ve decided to move him inside for reps at guard as well. This just never made a lot of sense to me. VERDICT: MISS
Miami Dolphins: WR DaVante Parker
-Entering the final week of the season he’s caught 21 passes for 388 yards and 2 Touchdowns. The first round talent is there, but foot issues scare me more than anything else. He just hasn’t been healthy enough for me to label him as a hit. VERDICT: MISS
San Diego Chargers: RB Melvin Gordon
-I thought evaluators had him going way too high. Despite being the 2nd best RB by many evaluators, I had him as my 3rd or 4th with a 2nd round grade rather than a 1st. He has no rushing TDs on the season, and won’t eclipse the thousand yard mark. I hate to say it, but I kind of saw this coming. He’s not the other worldly type of RB that Todd Gurley is, but his draft position indicates that the Chargers thought he was. While he’d start in Dallas, I think he’s kind of just a dude. VERDICT: MISS
Houston Texans: CB Kevin Johnson
-Such a great player. He’s not going to let anyone run by him. He’ll end the season with 10 starts and only 1 interception, but this is a really solid player. The Texans were looking to sure up their pass defense, and Johnson is going to play a key part in their secondary in the coming years. VERDICT: HIT
San Francisco 49ers: DL Arik Armstead
-He’s been a rotational DL for Jim Tomsula’s bad 49ers team. That’s how Tomsula rolls though, he just wants a rotation. Armstead has played in every game for San Fran, recording 2 sacks and 13 tackles. Some of his better games were against Arizona and Seattle, which is a little promising. Overall, the production is lacking for a mid-first round selection. Decent player, with a decent future but for now….VERDICT: MISS
Kansas City Chiefs: CB Marcus Peters
-Now we’re talking. Day 1 starter, 8 interceptions (2 for TDs), and 25 passes defensed according to Pro Football Reference. 59 tackles and 1 forced fumble. He’s also given up 7 touchdowns and is the most targeted CB in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s been thrown at 132 times, which is 28 more than the next CB in the league. He’s given up his fair share of big plays, but he’s made his fair share of big plays too. He’s a talker, and a very exciting player. Let’s remember that he’s a guy who ALLEGEDLY choked his coach in college, an accusation that I totally understand given that he is a press man corner who was asked to play nothing but zone. To be clear, I do not condone any form of violence! But seriously, let the man play press man corner. Luckily, he’s getting that chance for the playoff bound Chiefs. VERDICT: HIT
Cleveland Browns: OL Cameron Erving
-Oh boy. It’s always something with Cleveland. I liked him as a Center coming out of college, but he’s been moved all over the place on the Cleveland offensive line. I’ve personally made an effort to watch a lot of Cleveland football just to study Johnny Manziel and the one consistent thing you’d see in all of these games is Erving having a back-breaking penalty at the worst possible time. He also appears to not be in the best shape. Yikes. VERDICT: MISS
Philadelphia Eagles: WR Nelson Agholor
-The numbers say enough here. Heading into the final week of the season, Agholor has played in 12 games and has caught 21 balls for 260 yards and 1 touchdown. He hasn’t been the spark that the Chip Kelly offense needed. VERDICT: MISS
Cincinnati Benglas: OT Cedric Ogbuehi
-When you draft and develop as well as the Bengals you can afford to make this selection. The Texas A&M tackle would have been a clear first round grade, but a torn ACL removed him from many teams draft boards. If the Bengals were a bad team, struggling to make the playoffs year in and year out, then i’d label him a miss, but my pre-draft evaluations and the success of that franchise allow me to label him as…VERDICT: HIT
Pittsburgh Steelers: EDGE Bud Dupree
-One of my favorite players in the draft last year was Kentucky edge rusher Bud Dupree. Although he’s only registered 4 sacks (NONE since Week 8), this is a case where I believe in the player so much that there’s no chance in hell i’m calling him a miss. This guy will continue to improve. Also, remember that LB Ryan Shazier didn’t have a breakout rookie season for the Steelers, before becoming a defensive regular this year. They do things the right way in Pittsburgh. Develop. Develop. Develop! VERDICT: HIT
Denver Broncos: EDGE Shane Ray
-There are those who believed Shane Ray was a Top 10 talent in last year’s draft. I was one of those, but after some off the field issues dropped him down the board, the Denver Broncos and their 3-4 defense jumped on the opportunity. In 12 games, he’s totaled 4 sacks, playing behind Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. That’s how my final verdicts on some of these players will change. Some of these good teams, picking later in the rounds, just don’t have a spot for their rookies in the first year. I don’t know if Shane Ray will ever be a pro-bowl type of player, but I believe he’s got a home and an eventual starting position in Denver for years to come. VERDICT: HIT
Arizona Cardinals: OT D.J. Humphries
-We’ve reached a point in this piece where you see multiple teams developing players and not getting significant playing time out of their first rounders. That’s the case here with the Cardinals. Humphries hasn’t played this year because there’s not a spot for him on the Cardinals offensive line. After losing Carson Palmer in the 2014 season, the Cardinals proved they aren’t messing around with their 36 year old quarterback. Humphries should have a spot next year on the Cardinals offensive line. If the Cardinals were missing a link from being a contender, i’d label this is a miss, but right now, they might just be the best team in football, without effectively using their 2015 first round pick. VERDICT: HIT
Carolina Panthers: LB Shaq Thompson
-He hasn’t played a ton this year, but he’s a guy that will play a lot going forward. I was not high on him as a first round player, but this was a player drafted because he’s a fit. Thompson, while not playing a huge role this year, will be a stalwart of the Panthers defense for years to come. VERDICT: HIT
Baltimore Ravens: WR Breshad Perriman
-I was higher on Perriman than most, and i’ll be darned if I didn’t get dunked on by Broaddus and Jeff who told me to stay away from him. I’m guessing the idea was for Perriman to fill the void set by Torrey Smith signing with the 49ers but the only void Perriman filled was a spot on the IR. Dang it, dude. Tough times for the Ravens, a team who beat the Steelers yesterday and blew their chances at a Top 5 pick. Ouch. VERDICT: MISS
Dallas Cowboys: DB Byron Jones
-I had him evaluated as my 4th best CB with a clear 1st round grade. I was surprised that he fell back that far. He’s came in as a rookie and played multiple positions, and thriving at safety. Not only has he been good in his rookie season, but I really love that he gives the Cowboys some flexibility going forward. If the Cowboys wanted to address their defensive backfield in the upcoming draft, then it’s good to know that you’ve got a guy back there who you already know can play safety or corner. I love this kid, and loved this pick. Cheers to you Mr. Jones. VERDICT: HIT
Detroit Lions: OG Laken Tomlinson
-I was quite surprised when the Lions went this direction late in the first round, but the overall evaluation of the player has proven to be ok. He’s had his fair share of struggles, as a lot of rookie offensive lineman do, but he’s started 13 of 15 games, and appears to have carved himself out a starting spot going forward. VERDICT: HIT
Indianapolis Colts: WR Phillip Dorsett
-Look, we know it’s been a disaster of a year for the Colts. As Cowboys fans know all too well, when your starting QB gets hurt, things go to poo. It was such a head scratcher on draft night, as I remember sitting there during the broadcast just assuming they would add some beef to their roster. While I loved Dorsett’s college tape, he’s been a disappointment this year, catching only 14 balls for 200 yards and a TD. He’s only been targeted 30 times. VERDICT: MISS
Green Bay Packers: DB Damarious Randall
-Ben and Skin show fans know him as Sweet Dick Randall, and this is a guy who’s been so impressive and kind of compares to Byron Jones in a strange way. Damarious was evaluated as free safety by many, but he’s played primarily CB for the Packers and has been phenomenal in his rookie season. VERDICT: HIT
New Orleans Saints: LB Stephone Anthony
-He’s started all 15 games for the Saints and has 65 tackles and 42 assists according to Pro Football Reference. Throw in an interception, 2 forced fumbles and one fumble recovery for a touchdown and you’ve got a guy who’s been one of the few playmakers on that defense. I thought the first round was way too early for Anthony on draft night, but he’s proven me wrong. VERDICT: HIT
New England Patriots: DT Malcom Brown
-He’s started 11 of 15 games for New England, recording 3 sacks and 26 tackles. He’s a space eater, and is the type of player that you can picture being an important piece of the Patriots defensive line for the next few years. I didn’t think he’d be a first round player on draft night, but once again I was proven wrong. He’s been solid for the Pats. VERDICT: HIT
So there you have it, the hits and misses from Round 1 of last year’s draft.
Kevin “KT” Turner is the producer of the Ben and Skin Show, heard weekdays 3pm-7pm on 105.3 The Fan. You can follow him on twitter @ktfuntweets or you can email him at kevin.turner@cbsradio.com KT wants you to know that loves you.
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