F-15K Poster: apropos?
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The Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) originally planned to buy 120 advanced, high-end fighters as its next-generation platform, in order to replace its existing fleet of F-4 Phantom IIs and other aircraft. So far, it has bought 60 fighters in 2 phases. Back in 2002, the South Koreans picked the advanced F-15K derivative of the F-15E Strike Eagle for its F-X Next Generation Fighter Program, and bought 40. In 2008, a 2nd F-X Phase II contract was signed for 20 more F-15ks, with slight modifications.
As the 3rd phase loomed, the question was whether it will be a variant of their existing fleet, or something new. While the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) dreamed of developing their own “5th generation” aircraft for Phase 3, reality eventually had its say. Now, foreign manufacturers are offering the ROKAF a number of off-the-shelf options. But throughout 2013 DAPA couldn’t seem to be able to reconcile the air force’s desire for advanced technology with its budget constraints. Boeing seemed on the edge of winning with its F15-SEs as the sole contender within budget, only to be rejected by the end of September 2013. This reopened the tender with Lockheed Martin’s F-35 as the likely favorite.
F-X to KF-X: The Best-Laid Plans…
ROKAF F-4D Phantom II
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South Korea’s relationship with Boeing’s F-15 began in 2002, with a $3.6 billion contract to deliver 40 aircraft to the ROKAF, beginning in 2006 and ending in August 2008.
Their 2-seat F-15K Slam Eagles were the first F-15s produced with an updated version of the GE F110 engine common on many US F-16C/D aircraft, and on the ROKAF’s first 40 F-16 Block 30s, making South Korea the world’s first F-15 customer to fly that engine. They will also carry the SLAM-ER missile as their medium-range precision strike weapon.
F-15Ks have not been equipped with the AESA radars found on some US F-15Cs and Singapore’s forthcoming F-15SGs, however, relying instead on the AN/APG-63v1 radar upgrade, whose back-end can accommodate an AESA array in future, if one is added.
The ROKAF’s F-X-2
Strike Eagle
with SLAM-ERs
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In May 2006, the Korean Overseas Information Service said that the ROKAF would purchase another 20 multi-role aircraft, with delivery planned to begin in 2009. This 2nd phase of the F-X next-generation warplane procurement project didn’t quite go as planned. The ROKAF had reportedly hoped to order another 40 planes for F-X-2, but had to settle for just 20 more instead. Then their open competition fell apart. The F-35 was excluded for having incompatible timelines, Dassault and Sukhoi didn’t attend the DAPA presentation after being named as candidates, then Eurofighter pulled out, leaving Boeing’s F-15K as the only submission. DAPA put out a second request for tenders in response, and Boeing was, again, the only respondent.
The actual Phase 2 deal was signed in April 2008. It covered 21 more F-15Ks, to be powered by the Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-229-EEP extended life engine, instead of the GE F110-129 that equipped its previous 40 planes.
An earlier F100 variant powers its 140 “KF-16″ Block 52s, and these arrangements ensure that troubles with either engine type will still leave South Korea with a substantial fighter force.
F-X-3 and KF-X
F-35A Lightning II
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The 5-year process of getting to a Phase 3 RFP has seen its share of twists and turns, along with some confusion in terminology.
The F-35 Lightning II was initially seen as the only F-X-3 contender, but F-35 program delays began to make its participation questionable, and South Korea’s politics are pushing them to build up their own defense industry as a prime supplier.
The multinational F-35 program has no space for that kind of lead role, so Korean discussions for Phase 3 quickly shifted to some kind of indigenous “5th generation” KF-X design, possibly in concert with a major foreign defense firm. That approach carries immense cost and risk, and eventually the reality of cost, development, and technology transfer risks became impossible to ignore. South Korea’s indigenous fighter efforts beyond the FA-50 will either be shelved entirely, or focus on a different KF-X program that aims to develop a post-2020 fighter in the F/A-18 Super Hornet’s class. Read “KF-X Fighter: Pushing Paper, or Peer Program?” for full coverage.
For its top-tier F-X Phase 3 fighters, South Korea has reverted to the sensible choice of buying an off-the-shelf or late-development foreign platform. According to a ROKAF report submitted to the National Assembly in 2007, DAPA initially planned to open bidding in 2011 for 60 “5th-generation” jets under a 5.4 trillion won/ $5.4 billion program, aiming to deploy the planes between 2014 – 2019. Current plans call for a 40 fighter order worth up to WON 7.34 trillion/ $6.79 billion, but the current schedule won’t even sign the F-35A contract until late 2014 – early 2015. That timing means no initial deployment before late 2018 in the best-case scenario, with 2018 – 2022 as the delivery time frame.
Despite Lockheed Martin’s promises, the US GAO isn’t at all confident that the F-35 Block 3F software iteration, which is the first fully combat-capable set, will be ready by the 2018 delivery date.
Stealth, and the F-X-3 competitors
J-20 Prototype
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At the ROKAF’s high end, stealth has been mentioned as an important characteristic for F-X-3, and neighboring China’s unveiling of its J-20 stealth fighter has added force to the ROKAF’s desires. So, too, has Japan’s decision to buy F-35A Lightning II stealth fighters. South Korea’s 2012 RFP was initially written to require certain stealth levels and an internal weapons bay, which would have removed all contenders except the F-15SE and F-35. Those requirements were removed before the RFP’s release, but DAPA’s Oh Tae-shik had said that they would “evaluate stealth capability as one of the key aspects, giving an advantage to an aircraft with a lower [radar] observability.”
Those choices affected each of the competitors, but the key is that they widened the field. The finalists were:
Boeing: F-15SE Silent Eagle
EADS: Eurofighter Typhoon
Lockheed Martin: F-35A Lightning II
Unfortunately, all 3 contenders submitted bids for the fighters, industrial giveaways, etc. that were above South Korea’s budget. The competition was briefly suspended, as the government tried to figure out what to do. Bids then resumed, and Boeing was the sole contender for a few weeks, before being rejected for not being a 5th generation offering. The competition was taken away from DAPA, and the military forced stealth requirements that excluded all competitors but the F-35.
F-35B Hovers
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Lockheed Martin’s (picked). China’s unveiling of their J-20, and Japan’s purchase of F-35s, added pressure to keep up with the neighbors. F-35s are the only option as an off-the-shelf stealth strike fighter, so they became the ROKAF’s sole-source buy.
That happened after the F-35 had dealt itself out of DAPA’s competition. DAPA’s relaxation of stealth and internal weapon carriage requirements let others compete, and the F-35 was hampered by issues in meeting speed, external weapons carriage, evaluation flight, and cost requirements. The F-35A will also have the smallest set of qualified weapons to 2020, and may take several years after that before it reaches even the limited breadth of the Eurofighter’s array. In the end, however, cost was the biggest issue. Japan’s base cost per fighter has already risen past $120 million, and the F-35 couldn’t meet the ROKAF’s budget for 60 planes.
The F-35B STOVL’s combination of vertical landing capability, USMC compatibility, and stealth could have made it a compelling choice for the ROKAF, but the ROK’s April 2013 DSCA request involved conventional long-runway F-35As that can carry 2,000 pound bombs internally.
F-15 Silent Eagles
Boeing concept
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Boeing (lost). Boeing had an interesting card up its sleeve: the South Korean government’s dream of participating in the development of a new, stealthy fighter platform could survive, albeit in a toned-down form. They would have made Korea the launch partner for its most advanced F-15 fighter yet: the F-15SE Silent Eagle. It doesn’t offer the same radar signature reduction as an F-35, and is only optimized for air-to-air combat stealth. In addition, the canted tails that improve lift and reduce side radar signature are only an option within their bid, rather than a standard feature.
What the F-15SE does offer is improved radar stealth over the F-15K, internal weapon bays, and major advances in controls (fly-by-wire), onboard radar, electronic countermeasures, and sensors. In short, Boeing had to win on advantages like range, carriage capacity, low risk, fleet commonality, and the broadest array of weapon capabilities within South Korea’s budget.
The F-15SE would have given the ROKAF a platform that’s compatible with many of its existing fighters, while boasting advanced capabilities that Korean firms could help manufacture for other F-15 customers. It also offered the singular promise of a 90%+ common high-end fleet, if the ROKAF moved to refit its existing F-15Ks and create a uniform high-end F-15 force of Silent Eagles. Fly-by-wire would probably be too expensive for the upgrades, and canted vertical tails are an unlikely retrofit option, but all other components could be added.
Eurofighter Typhoon
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EADS (lost). The Eurofighter Typhoon was a Phase 3 competitor throughout, unlike its pullout from F-X-2. EADS proposed to phase in Korean assembly for Phase III, and in 2013 they improved that offer to involve 12 planes made in Europe, and the last 48 assembled at KAI. It wasn’t entirely clear whether KAI would also be performing structural manufacturing, and if so how much. The Eurofighter’s challenge was that technology transfer and local manufacturing adds cost. That hurt them in Japan, despite being rated as the best industrial offer. They hoped that pledges to assist South Korea with development of its proposed K-FX fighter would help tip the balance.
Eurofighter’s Typhoon has more RCS (Radar Cross-Section) shaping features than most people realize, but it has no conformal weapons bay. Instead, its design philosophy was built around the concept that full stealth adds too much expense, and will be compromised by future technology developments. EADS’ design focused on agility, long-range sensors, and long-range weapons instead. The Typhoon does extremely well in those fields, though its range of weapon options is far narrower than the F-15′s. In the end, it wasn’t enough. The bid was eliminated from DAPA’s selection on a questionable technicality, then precluded from the relaunched competition by stealth requirements it can’t meet.
Gripen: no bid.
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Saab (declined). The Swedish firm indicated a preliminary interest, and made themselves eligible to bid with the JAS-39 Gripen NG. Saab would have been able to offer South Korea a position as a full platform co-development partner, but chose not to bid in the end.
Their Gripen Demo prototype is finishing testing, but the operational Gripen E/F is still in development between Sweden & Switzerland. The Gripen is a smaller fighter than the other competitors, and lacks the stealth enhancements found on the F-15SE or F-35, but its combination of RCS shaping and smaller size have made it difficult to find during NATO exercises like Spring Flag 2007. Overall, it’s a versatile and very agile fighter with a good weapons array, short-takeoff and landing capabilities, and a proven record of low purchase, operations, and maintenance costs. On the flip side, the Gripen’s size creates limits as well as advantages.
Contracts & Key Events
2014
Landing the F-35A
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May 11/14: Diehl & Saab’s Taurus Systems joint venture is opening an office in South Korea, its first outside of Germany. The Seoul office will support South Korea’s November 2013 contract, while overseeing technology transfer and joint development of the next version. Sources: Korea Times, “Taurus Systems to open Seoul office this week”.
March 27/14: Oy! of the Tiger. The F-15K fleet’s Tiger Eye pods combine advanced all-weather and terrain-following navigation with an electro-optical day/night sensor suite that includes Infrared Search and Track (IRST). Yonhap places the number bought at just 10, and adds that the ROKAF has had trouble maintaining them. Perhaps that’s what led to allegations of disassembly and industrial espionage (q.v. Nov 18/11)?
Now the pods are coming home to bite a second time, via a 6x hike in support costs. Yonhap reports that the ROKAF is the system’s only customer, and quotes American sources as saying that the rarity of parts is driving the problem, though Singapore’s F-15SGs were were displayed with Tiger Eyes on rollout. The Koreans are responding by trying to buy key components for lifetime support, before those components disappear.
The ROKAF has 40 Sniper Advanced Targeting Pods with good optics, but they’re often deployed along with Tiger Eyes. If Sniper ATPs are used alone, the ROKAF would have to add LANTIRN pods to gain the same radar-evading low-level flight advantages, and they’d lose the IRST. Sources: Yonhap, “U.S. demands sharp rise in price of F-15K’s sensor parts”.
March 24/14: South Korea’s government officially ratifies its decision (q.v. Nov 22/13) to sole-source 40 F-35As as their next fighter jet, instead of accepting 60 F-15SEs from Boeing’s $7.2 billion bid. Sources quoted by Reuters place South Korea’s revised budget at WON 7.34 trillion (about $6.79 billion), but negotiations on the actual price aren’t expected to finish until late 2014.
Lockheed VP Gary North says that the planes will have “fully operable” Block 3F software when they’re delivered, and other sources give a 2018 – 2022 delivery period. Lockheed Martin is breezily confident that it can meet those requirements, but official GAO and DOT&E reports cast grave doubt on software development and testing in particular. Block 3F seems very unlikely to finish by its target date in 2017, and a lot of things would have to change very soon in order to make even 2018 a likely bet. Contract language around “fully operable” could become very important.
Lockheed’s Randy Howard, the VP who directs the F-35 Korea sale, touted the program’s recent assessment that “the F-35 is on a downward path that will lead to a Unit Recurring Flyaway (URF) cost for an F-35A of between $80-85 million,” as his firm seeks an up-front contract for all 40 planes. On the other hand, ROK DAPA sources point to the fact that the program’s estimate based on doubtful sales estimates, and note previous gaps between touted costs and actual prices.
Lockheed Martin’s desire to avoid smaller annual contracts that minimize customer commitment makes sense. With American orders facing cuts, and projected orders from key program members like Canada and the Netherlands coming in at about half of initial estimates, they need to add guaranteed orders. Otherwise, early buyer prices will stay very high and hurt sales. On the other hand, Japan’s recent experiences suggest that the smart money bet lies with DAPA’s dubiousness. South Korea has already locked itself in the negotiating room, and Lockheed could benefit from a smaller Political Cross-Section by not leading with its chin in this way, but it seems to be a persistent pattern. The Sources: Lockheed Martin, “Republic of Korea Selects Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II” | Yonhap, “S. Korea confirms US$6.8 mln deal for 40 F-35s in Q3″ and “Lockheed Martin says F-35 will get cheaper in next five years” | Reuters, “South Korea boosts air defenses with about $6.8 billion budget for F-35s”.
F-35A sole-source is official
2013
ROK removes DAPA from the equation and picks the F-35 without competition; Export cases for F-35A, F-15SE, and accompanying weapons; EADS offers to support KF-X if Eurofighter is picked for F-X-3; ROKAF picks KEPD 350 as its long-range cruise missile; F100 engine support deal.
F-15K: engines lit
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November 2013: Cruise Missiles. South Korea’s DAPA reportedly signs the contract for KEPD 350 cruise missiles with Taurus Systems, a joint venture between LFK (MBDA Deutschland) and Saab. Previous reports indicated that the contract would involve about 170 missiles, at a cost of about $360 million equivalent (q.v. April 25/08, May 18/11, April 4/13, June 19/13, July 5/13). Sources: Korea Times, “Taurus Systems to open Seoul office this week”.
KEPD-350 cruise missiles
Nov 27/13: Dissension. Ruling Saenuri Party members are demanding that South Korea’s government renegotiate the proposed buy of 40 F-35As. Influential Rep. Rhee In-je echoes the Chosun Ilbo newspaper:
“The government made the right decision in choosing the F-35A for its stealth capabilities, but compared to Japan, the conditions (for the purchase) are strikingly unfair…. This isn’t an issue that can be glossed over. We have to try to (buy the jets) on the condition of technology transfer and with the same terms as Japan [q.v.: local assembly for most and some local parts production], even if that means more negotiations…”
Other senior party members want “an open bid for core technology transfer,” and the opposition is blasting the government for weakening its negotiating position by abandoning the competition. On that score, it’s simply too late. There is no competition now, and everyone knows there’s no real competition. Which means it isn’t possible to get the benefits of competition. Even as China’s recent aggressive moves in the East China Sea/ Mer de Coree are turning the fighter buy into a high priority for the ROKAF.
The deal on the table has technology transfer provisions that focus on South Korea’s KF-X fighter, and other projects. If the entire deal revolves around the F-35, it takes these items off of the table. Does the ROK want that? Rep. Rhee In-je is right that the ROK has painted itself into a bit of a corner, but he’s wrong to believe it can just walk out of that corner without paying a steep price. Sources: The Korea Observer, “Ruling party members urge better conditions in fighter jet contract” | Chosun Ilbo op-ed, “Korea Must Keep Edge in Fighter Jet Negotiations”.
Nov 22/13: F-35 Only. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff announce that there will be no competition for F-X Phase III. They’ve set the stealth requirements so that only the F-35 can meet them, and DAPA plans to sign a 2014 contract for 40 F-35A block 3 jets, to be delivered from 2018 – 2022. That’s a drop from the original requirement for 60 planes, though the ROK JCS will consider a later buy of another 20 jets, type unspecified, for deployment in 2023 – 2024. JCS spokesman Eom Hyo-sik:
“The F-35A will be used as a strategic weapon to gain a competitive edge and defeat the enemy in the early stage of war…. The South Korean military will also use the aircraft to effectively deal with provocations.”
He’s referring to the ROK’s counterstrike doctrine, which intends to actively seek out artillery and missile launchers in early stages of a full war, and strike heavily-defended North Korean targets in response to lesser armed provocations. DAPA’s immediate challenge will be setting a budget for its purchase. Senior DAPA official Oh Tae-shik says that “We expect to firm up the total budget size after discussions with the related ministry.” The ROKAF’s intermediate-term challenge is the fact that American GAO auditors don’t have a lot of confidence in the 2018 deadline for Block 3 jets, given how far behind the fighter’s software development has fallen.
As a side effect, the JCS has moved proposed development of the local KF-X fighter as an intermediate-term project for development by 2020, rather than a long-term project. Lockheed Martin is expected to lend its expertise to KAI, as part of an F-35 industrial offsets program that will also include a new military communications satellite and a cyber-warfare training center. ROK’s Yonhap, “(LEAD) S. Korea decides to buy 40 Lockheed F-35s from 2018″ | E&T, “South Korea confirms F-35 fighter jet deal” | China’s Xinhua, “S. Korea picks Lockheed Martin’s F-35 as main fighter jet”.
Oct 11/13: Boeing. Boeing is reportedly shifting its strategy in Korea to promotion of a split-buy. South Korea will take over primary command responsibility for forces on the Korean peninsula in 2015, and wants fighters by 2016, but the F-35B isn’t going to be ready for combat by then. Experiences with other F-35 buyers are also demonstrating much higher purchase costs, resulting in order cuts of 50% or more in partner nations.
Boeing is hoping this will lead to a situation like Australia’s, where the government ended up buying F/A-18F and EA-18G fighters as an interim bridge, and a way to improve fighter force size. The bad news is that South Korea’s perceived need for in-country infrastructure to handle most maintenance operations means that a notable chunk of their F-35 costs won’t change if they switch from 40 F-35s to 24 F-35s + 30 F-15SEs.
Boeing’s F-15SE technologies remain available as upgrades for South Korea and for other customers. Sources: Aviation Week, “Boeing Sees Possible Split Fighter Buy For Korea”.
Sept 24/13: F-15SE out. DAPA yields to pressure from the air force to pursue a 5th generation acquisition. Defense minister Kim Min-seok:
“A majority of the committee members agreed to reject (F-15 SE) and restart the project, taking into consideration the recent security situation including North Korea’s third nuclear test and latest aerospace technology development. They agreed that South Korean Air Force needs fifth-generation combat jets to keep pace with the latest trend and to deter provocations by North Korea.”
This puts Lockheed Martin in a strong position, if the money is there and stealth ends up being the defining “5th gen” requirement. Note that the money will have to encompass more than just the planes, as the nearest major maintenance hub for the F-35s will be in Japan. South Korea already has that infrastructure for its F-15s, but it would have to build and stock a new system for the F-35. Sources: Yonhap, “S. Korea decides against picking Boeing’s F-15 SE as next fighter jet” | CS Monitor, “F-15 Silent Eagle: Why South Korea rejected this jet” | The Diplomat, “South Korea Rejects Boeing’s F-15SE Fighter, Will Restart FX-III”.
F-X-III called off
Aug 28/13: F-15SE radar. Aviation Week reports that Boeing offered South Korea the APG-82(V)1 AESA radar for its F-15SEs, which is a step up from the APG-63(V)3 AESA in Singapore’s F-15SGs and Saudi Arabia’s forthcoming F-15SAs. The APG-82v1 will be the USAF’s Strike Eagle radar under a refit program. Compared to the APG-63(V)3, the APG-82 offers a new wideband radome, an improved cooling system, new Radio Frequency Tunable Filters (RFTF) that let the radar and Electronic Warfare System function at the same time, and an architecture of LRM “blades” that can be swapped out in the field based on internal diagnostics. That improves readiness compared with the APG-63′s large LRU “black box” units, which must be sent to a maintenance depot for diagnosis and service. Sources: Aviation Week, “Boeing Mulling F-15 Plans Beyond Silent Eagle”.
Aug 19-20/13: Contradictory reports. Conflicting messaging from DAPA and contractors give a somewhat muddled picture, apparently leaving the F-15SE as the de facto winner.
DAPA announced that Eurofighter was out because of procedural flaws, which EADS reportedly denies. The core problem is that the ROKAF wanted 45 single-seat and 15 2-seat aircraft, for whatever reason. All F-15SEs are 2-seat, and all F-35s are single-seat, so it was an arbitrary figure for EADS. The 2-seat planes cost a bit more, and EADS says that operational experience shows a need for fewer trainer-capable planes due to advanced simulators, etc. So they proposed a 54/ 6 split, to stay within the budget. EADS Chief Sales Officer Christian Scherer offers a way forward, if politicians want to pressure DAPA into reconsidering:
“I would like to stress that Eurofighter’s intention has been to provide DAPA, to consider within its discretion, fully within the boundaries of the Request for Proposal (RFP), a bid package that would meet the declared essential budget…. We do not see any promises made but only different scenarios with preferences which have been discussed respectfully by the parties all along the negotiation process…. We are open for any constructive discussion with DAPA. We have shown different paths, and we are ready to discuss the applicability of any or parts thereof to help DAPA come to the most cost-effective choice for the F-X Program.”
Meanwhile Lockheed Martin is not admitting defeat just yet, though that’s standard procedure in jet competitions, where it’s not over till it’s over. The truth is, their best hope is for DAPA to reject the F-15SE, or have the competition derailed some other way, giving them time to be able to offer more cost certainty and meet the budget – if they can. Sources: Yonhap, “Interview – EADS denies procedural breach to Korean fighter jet project” | The Hankyoreh, “Eurofighter eliminated from next-generation fighter project” | Reuters, “Lockheed says S. Korea jet fighter contest not over” | Korea Times op-ed, ” Fighter project in limbo” Government needs to reexamine plan from square one”.
Aug 16/13: F-35 Out. South Korea’s new negotiating strategy pays off, as the F-15 Silent Eagle and EADS Eurofighter reportedly meet the bid limit and become the 2 finalists. The DAPA procurement agency will only confirm that at least 1 bidder was within the budget, but Yonhap News Agency confirms that the F-35 disqualified itself by bidding over budget. The Korea Times cites an unnamed “industry source” who says that Eurofighter and Boeing both bid within the limits, which sets up an interesting duel.
DAPA could run the evaluation and decide not to buy any fighters right now, but that’s a good way to simply lose your budget. Reports say that a request to raise the budget has already been refused, in order to increase voter entitlement payouts. The Eurofighter is a better air superiority fighter, but the F-15s have a much wider array of weapons they can use. That versatility, coupled with the prospect of eventually upgrading the F-15 fleet to a mostly-common F-15SE configuration (albeit without fly-by-wire or canted vertical tails on older F-15Ks), is expected to give Boeing an edge. Sources: Yonhap, “S. Korea’s fighter jet project becomes two-way race” | Korea Times, “F-15, Eurofighter vie for F-X project.”
July 29/13: New bids. A Korea Times article makes DAPA’s near-term negotiating strategy crystal-clear. DAPA Spokesman Baek Youn-hyeong says that once any of the bidders meet the KRW 8.3 trillion/ $7.45 billion budget, all candidates will be evaluated, and any not meeting the budget will be disqualified regardless of their evaluations.
The paper reports that Boeing’s bid was within 3% of DAPA’s budget, which means we could have a winner very soon. Sources: Korea Times, “F-35 to be first to bow out”.
July 25/13: New bids. DAPA spokesman Baek Youn-hyeong says that DAPA will begin a 3rd round of F-X-3 bidding in the 3rd week of August. Then he says that:
“If there is no entry with price within the project budget after the resumption of bidding, we will pursue the project again through reviews or increase in overall budget…”
It’s hard to say what this means. Telling companies that “if you don’t bid within our budget, we’ll increase it and try again” is a poor negotiating strategy. Unless the reviews and budget increase are simply applied to the already-submitted bids, and a winner is picked with no further bidding. This would be a reasonable strategy if technical compromise is seen as out of the question, but the people controlling the budget need to be assured that the winning offer is the best possible deal. Sources: Reuters, “South Korea reopens bidding for stalled fighter jet competition”.
July 11/13: Say what? South Korea’s government needs to decide what do do about its fighter competition. One DAPA official tells Reuters that:
“If the auction falls apart, we will consider all possible options, possibly including splitting the purchase…”
If all 3 bidders are over slot, we fail to see how splitting the purchase will help. The only way it would help is if DAPA changed the buy to include lower and higher performance fighter tiers, which would add less expensive competitors to the mix. That would leave EADS in a bind, however, and increase the pressure for fleet compatibility in at least one of the tiers. The F-16V would be a very strong contender in that scenario, as it would fit with the ROKAF’s planned F-16 upgrades. Sources: Reuters, “South Korea to review bids on $7.3 billion fighter jet deal”.
July 5/13: Suspended. The new round of bidding extended until July 5th, but it didn’t help. None of the entries could meet South Korea’s industrial demands, and performance specifications, and budget limits. DAPA responded by suspending further bidding on the competition.
Something clearly has to be rethought, if South Korea wants those fighters. If they don’t drop the number bought, then either the budget must be increased, or cost-adding elements like industrial offsets need to be revised, or the performance specifications need to be relaxed and new competitors contemplated. Sources: Yonhap, “S. Korea temporarily suspends bidding for next-generation fighter jet program” | Yonhap, “S. Korean fighter jet project stuck over pricing”.
F-X-3 suspended
July 5/13: Cruise missiles. A budget analysis report by the National Assembly’s Budget Office notes potential budget problems with the proposed buy of Taurus long-range cruise missiles. South Korea began with a KRW 221.3 billion/ $194 million budget, and has since raised it to 411.9 billion won/ $360 million.
The bad news? The bid for the Taurus missile package was KRW 568.8 billion/ $496.4 billion in 2011. The Budget Office report wants DAPA to report the results of their negotiations with Taurus/MBDA, before the office conducts budget deliberations for 2014. Sources: Yonhap, “Parliament advises review of Taurus, Global Hawk acquisition plan”.
June 28/13: Try again. DAPA official Baek Youn-hyeong said another round of bidding would start on Tuesday July 2, since the 2nd round of bidding ended with none of the bidders meeting the 8.3 trillion won ($7.3 billion) budget set for 60 aircraft. Sources: AP, “S. Korea extends $7.3 billion fighter jet bidding” | Yonhap, “Second round of bidding for Korean jet project fails over price”.
June 19/13: Cruise Missiles. DAPA has approved a plan to purchase Taurus Missiles (q.v. April 4/13 entry) in the absence of American clearance for JASSM. Yonhap reports that the deal will be over $300 million, for about 170 missiles. Note that approval isn’t a contract yet, but at least we’re zeroing in on prices and quantities. Sources: Agence France Presse, “S.Korea to buy European missiles”.
May 23/13: Eurofighter. EADS Cassidian reportedly announces that they would invest $2 billion in the K-FX fighter development project, and help market the plane internationally, if the Eurofighter is chosen for F-X-3. Investments would include a maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) facility that could extend to the KF-X, and an aerospace software center.
It isn’t a bad idea for EADS. Barring multiple orders from new sources, it’s very unlikely that the Eurofighter will still be in production by 2022. Upgrades and maintenance will continue for some time, but the C-203 KF-X design could offer EADS a new option to sell, with a fundamental design that can improve toward stealth fighter status. The question is whether South Korea wants to go forward. Sources: Yonhap News, “EADS offers US$2 bln investment on Korean fighter jet project”.
May 22/13: Weapons. The US DSCA forwards South Korea’s official weapons export request for up to $823 million worth of weapons to equip F-15SE Silent Eagles [PDF], or up to $793 million in weapons for F-35As [PDF], if either plane is picked as the F-X-3 winner. There’s a lot of commonality, with some differences. The commonalities:
274 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM). This is the most advanced export version, and the ROK already uses AMRAAMs on its F-15s and F-16s.
6 AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM Guidance Sections.
154 AIM-9X Block II Tactical Missiles w/DSU-41. This is the most advanced Sidewinder short-range air-to-air missile. The F-35A and F-15SE The ROKAF would need to do additional work, if they wanted to add it to their KF-16s as well.
14 AIM-9X Block II Tactical Guidance Unit. Spares are good.
33 AIM-9X Block II CATM (Captive Air Training Missiles). Used for exercises.
7 AIM-9X Block II CATM Guidance Units
1,312 FMU-152A/B Fuzes (FZU-63 Initiator)
6 MK-82 Filled, Inert Bombs. Operational Mk-82s weigh about 500 pounds.
4 BLU-109 Inert Bombs. The BLU-109 is a penetrator section for 2,000 pound bombs.
542 GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs. These 250 pound GPS-guided glide bombs replace existing bombs on a 4 to 1 basis, and pack the same penetration punch as a 2,000 pound weapon against some hardened targets.
Plus containers, missile support and test equipment, provisioning, spare and repair parts, support equipment, personnel training and training equipment, publications and technical documentation, and other US government and contractor support.
The F-15SE and F-35A requests have different distributions and types of bombs. The $823 million F-15SE request includes 1,312 bombs:
780 JDAM Tail Kits, MK-82/BLU-111 KMU572C/B (GBU-38) w/SAASM/AJ. In English: 500 pound version with jam-resistant GPS guidance.
170 BLU-117 2,000 pound General Purpose Bombs.
170 JDAM Tail Kits, MK-84/BLU-117 KMU-556C/B (GBU-31) w/SAASM/AJ. 2,000 pound version with jam-resistant GPS guidance.
362 BLU-109 2,000 pound Penetrator bombs, for use against hardened targets. It adds up to 532 2,000 pound bombs in this request.
362 Joint Directed Attack Munition (JDAM) Tail Kits, BLU-109/KMU-557C/B (GBU-31) w/SAASM/AJ. 2,000 pound penetrator version with jam-resistant GPS guidance.
The $793 million F-35A request includes 1,310 bombs:
780 GBU-12 Paveway II 500 pound laser-guided bombs. Instead of the GPS-guided JDAMs.
4 GBU-12 Dummy Trainers.
530 BLU-109 2,000 pound Penetrator bombs, for use against hardened targets. The F-35A can carry a 2,000 pound bomb and an AMRAAM missile in each of its 2 weapon bays. Maximum impact is best against the kind of tough targets they’d attack.
530 Joint Directed Attack Munition (JDAM) Tail Kits, BLU-109/KMU-557C/B (GBU-31) w/SAASM/AJ. 2,000 pound penetrator version with jam-resistant GPS guidance. The F-35A request orders more of these JDAM kits, but none of the other types.
4 JDAM BLU-109 Load Build Trainers.
The principal contractors are listed as Raytheon Missile Systems Company in Tucson, AZ (AIM-9X, AIM-120); The Boeing Corporation in St Louis, MO (all JDAM kits); Lockheed Martin Missile and Space in Bethesda, MD (GBU-12); and Kaman Precision Products in Middletown, CT (fuzes). General Dynamics OTS makes the base bombs, but aren’t mentioned. If permission leads to negotiated contracts, implementation will require multiple trips to Korea involving U.S. Government and contractor representatives for technical reviews/support, program management, and training over a period of 8 years.
US DSCA: Weapon export requests for F-15SE, F-35A
April 5/13: Eurofighter. With initial F-X-3 negotiations underway, and price negotiations expected to begin on April 18/13, an un-named military official tells the government’s Yonhap News Agency that EADS has changed their industrial offer. Instead of having the first 10 made in Europe, the next 24 made using Korean components, and the last 26 assembled in Korea, EADS has offered to build just 12 in Europe, and the other 48 Tranche 3 planes at KAI in South Korea.
The news report is imprecise, leaving the question of structural manufacturing vs. kit assembly unaddressed. It also fails to address how EADS can promote the idea of 20,000 South Korean aerospace jobs for a 5-year period, when the company also says that building the Typhoon for the much larger orders of the core country participants created just 10,000 jobs in Europe. On its face, the statement seems less than plausible, but it does point to the likelihood of significant structural manufacturing in Korea. Sources: Yonhap, “EADS offers to manufacture 48 Eurofighters in S. Korea” | Fly To Barcelona, “Cassidian Spain presents the Eurofighter offer for South Korea” | New Pacific Institute, “EADS’s ‘Eurofighter Typhoon’ Localized Production Deal with South Korea in Jeopardy”.
F-15/KEPD 350 concept
(click to view full)
April 4/13: Cruise missiles. The ROKAF has taken about 5 years (q.v. May 18/11, April 25/08 entries), but they appear to have picked their long-range cruise missile: Taurus’ KEPD 350, with an expected order of 200 weapons. Negotiations are expected to begin quickly. A ROKAF officer is quoted as saying that they “urgently need more long-range air-to-surface missiles due to the mounting nuclear threat and the increasing possibility of provocations from North Korea.”
It was clear from the outset that the ROKAF was looking beyond the 40 or so Boeing AGM-84K SDLAM-ER missiles in its arsenal, with particular interest in Lockheed Martin’s AGM-158 JASSM/JASSM-ER. Unfortunately, the current administration has made it difficult for South Korea to join Australia as a JASSM export customer, and hew to the past pattern of buying American. Parliamentary defence committee member Kim Kwan-jin is quoted as saying that:
“U.S. missiles were one of the options we were considering, but because it is difficult for them to be sold to Korea, the only option we have is the Taurus.”
Chalk up another “own goal” for American weapons export processes and administration – though JASSM reportedly had some carriage issues with the F-15SE and F-15K (vid. Nov 5/12 entry). The KEPD 350 uses a combination of terrain matching, GPS, and Imaging Infrared guidance. It’s currently integrated with the Tornado and F/A-18 Hornet, is partially integrated with Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen, and is expected to be integrated with the Eurofighter by 2015 or so. The ROKAF will have to fund additional integration and testing on its own, in order to use the new missile with its F-15Ks and F-16s.
Technically, the ROKAF could have ordered MBDA’s Storm Shadow and paid for its integration instead. The thing is, it’s more expensive to buy, thanks to an added level of stealth that isn’t really helpful against North Korea. Storm Shadow also lacks the KEPD 350′s void sensing fuze, which is especially useful against the multi-level bunkers so beloved of North Korea’s tyranny. The KEPD 350′s 500 km/ 310 mile range matches or exceeds the Storm Shadow’s, and almost doubles the existing SLAM-ER’s 278 km reach. Sources: Chosun Ilbo, “S.Korea to Buy Bunker-Buster Missiles from Europe” | Reuters, “S.Korea to buy bunker busting missiles from Europe” (different article).
Cruise missile picked: Taurus’ KEPD 350
April 2/13: The South Korean government has a pair of DSCA export requests tabled. If they aren’t actively blocked – and they won’t be – then either Boeing or Lockheed Martin will be able to negotiate a contract IF either fighter wins the ROKAF’s F-XIII competition. If the Eurofighter Typhoon wins, of course, they’re both out of luck. As the winning F-XIII fighter enters service, the ROKAF is expected to retire its F-4 Phantoms.
The respective requests make comparison very difficult, because the F-35A is a full Foreign Military Sale, whereas the F-15SEs involve a Direct Commercial Sale of the core F-15SE fighter that doesn’t appear in the offered totals. Implementation of either sale would require multiple unspecified trips to Korea involving US Government and contractor representatives for technical reviews and support, program management, and training over a period of 15 years. If either proposal is accepted, industrial offset agreements will also be part of the negotiations.
F-35A. The US DSCA announces a full FMS case for 60 fully-equipped F-35A fighters, and another 9 spare Pratt & Whitney F-135 engines. The order would also come with Autonomic Logistics Global Support System (ALGS); the Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS); Full Mission Trainer; “Weapons Employment Capability,” and other Subsystems, Features, and Capabilities; F-35 unique infrared flares; Reprogramming center services and software development/integration; Aircraft ferry and tanker support; Spares and repair parts; Personnel training and training equipment, and other forms of US Government and contractor support.
Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney will be the prime contractors if the F-35A wins. The estimated cost is up to $10.8 billion, which is $180 million per fighter, but all of those “the order would also come with” items do add up. Sources: US DSCA [PDF].
F-15SE. The US DSCA announces a possible hybrid case in support of 60 F-15 Silent Eagle aircraft and their engines being procured via Direct Commercial Sales (DCS), and other items that must be sold under the Foreign Military Sale (FMS) procedure. Boeing in St. Louis, MO would be the prime contractor. FMS items are estimated to cost up to $2.408 billion, and include:
60 Active Electronically Scanned Array Radar sets (type undisclosed – APG-63v3 or APG-82v1)
60 AN/AAQ-33 Sniper surveillance and targeting pods
60 AN/AAS-42 Infrared Search and Track (IRST) pods
69 Link-16 Terminals and spares
Advanced Display Core Processor II
Joint Mission Planning System
132 Ultra High Frequency/Very High Frequency (UHF/VHF) secure radios with HAVE QUICK II
GEM-V GPS airborne receiver module
60 Digital Electronic Warfare Systems (DEWS)
Plus various support equipment items, and communication security; software development/integration, spares and repair parts, personnel training and training equipment, publications and technical documents, and US Government and contractor support.
The F-15SE’s new stealth-enhancing features, fly-by-wire, etc. make estimation difficult. Based on sales of less advanced F-15K/SG Strike Eagles to South Korea and Singapore, however, those 60 planes can be expected to add around $6.6 – 7.8 billion. That’s still below the F-35A, and the question is how far below. Another advantage the F-15 has is that most of the training, spares, engine spares, and support infrastructure is already present from F-15K sales. Source: US DSCA [PDF].
F-15SE & F-35A export requests
Jan 8/13: United Technologies Corp. subsidiary Pratt & Whitney announces a 5-year, $300 million Performance Based Logistics (PBL) contract to support over 230 ROKAF F100 turbofans in intermediate engine shops, and at the depot level.
All of South Korea’s 180 or so F-16C/D fighters, and some of its F-15K Strike Eagles, use the F100 engine. With the exception of the earliest F-16 Block 32s, the vast majority use variants of the F100-PW-229. The other exception involves 39 / 60 F-15Ks, which fly with GE’s F110-GE-129. That way, problems with the F100 engine can’t ground the ROKAF’s entire top-end fighter fleet.
Multiyear F100 engine support
2012
F-X-3 stealth criteria lowered, but other criteria adjusted to keep F-35A viable; F-X-3 bids make it F-15SE vs. F-35 vs. Eurofighter; Are JASSM missiles a problem for F-15K/SE?
F-15K, Kunsan AB
(click to view full)
Nov 5/12: Cruise missiles. South Korea’s Yonhap News Service reports that a design inconsistency involving the F-15K Slam Eagle will make it impossible to load 2 JASSM medium-range stealthy cruise missiles on the aircraft, without modifying either the pylons or the plane’s upper wing:
“…JASSM) with a 370-kilometer range has been considered a favorite, as the U.S. firm offered a cheaper price than its German competitor Taurus… recent test showed, however, that Lockheed’s JASSM doesn’t fit the F-15K, as the missile’s upper wing folds only to the left side. The Defense Acquisition and Procurement Administration (DAPA) has asked Boeing, the F-15K maker, and Lockheed Martin about ways to install the missile on the F-15K, but both have not responded… “To install the JASSMs in both wings of the F-15K, either F-15K’s pylon or the JASSM’s upper wing should be modified, but it would cost a lot,” the official said.”
That’s odd, because the AGM-158 JASSM lists as already integrated on US F-15E Strike Eagles. If Yonhap is correct, Taurus has a price problem, and JASSM an integration problem. By extension, MBDA’s high end Storm Shadow would also create price issues for South Korea. Time will tell. Meanwhile, the F-15Ks remain capable of firing Boeing’s AGM-84K SLAM-ER cruise missiles. Yonhap.
Sept 14/13: Downgraded F-15SE. Defense Update reports that Boeing is turning canted tail fins into an option for Korea’s F-15SE bid, rather than a core feature. The canted tail fins were supposed to improve side stealth while improving lift, and reducing weight. Wind tunnel tests appear to have shown less flight performance improvement than Boeing was hoping for, and the redesign would have added to the fighter’s cost. Sources: Defense Update, “Boeing Cuts F-15SE Design Feature in Korean Fighter Bid”.
July 3/12: All 3 competitors have re-submitted their bids. DAPA says that flight tests will begin in late July 2012, but some will be based on simulators “because core parts of all three jets are still under development.” Note that if the final decision is put off until 2013, it may well fall under a new government. Korea Herald.
June 20/12: F-X-3 Re-submit. South Korea’s DAPA reopens bidding, “citing what it called errors in the relevant documents.” The re-submission date is July 5/12, which means the same 3 candidates are the only realistic possibility.
DAPA commissioner Noh Dae-Rae also told Yonhap News Agency that an October 2012 decision was their goal, not their deadline, and could delay that decision if they felt it was in “the national interest.” A delay could wind up being important to the F-35, and Lockheed Martin will respond to South Korean demands for more involvement in F-35 testing by June 22nd. Otherwise, Noh says that the F-35 could deal itself out of the competition:
“If the U.S. side rejects our request, we will have no choice but to give [the F-35] a zero point in the criteria of flight-testing.”
That’s a good initial negotiating position, anyway. Defense News | Yonhap.
F-X-3 RFP re-do
June 18/12: F-X-3 Responses. A DAPA official confirms the 3 bidders for the Phase 3 buy: Boeing’s F-15SE, EADS’ Eurofighter, and Lockheed Martin’s F-35. They’ve submitted their boxes of documentation, and DAPA plans to announce a winner by October 2012, then sign a contract by the end of 2012.
The main opposition Democratic United Party is opposed to the fighter buy, and is demanding that the next government deal with it. They won’t get their way, but technical developments have added weight to their case.
Of the 3 jets, only EADS’ Eurofighter will be fully available for flight tests. The F-35 is single-seat only, and has fielded only a handful of test aircraft so far. Training a ROKAF pilot to the required level would be both time-consuming, and damaging to the F-35 development program. South Korea will have to rely on simulator flights, which are questionably useful for a plane that’s still in its development & testing phase. Boeing’s F-15SE is available as a 2-seat test aircraft, and has 80% commonality with existing F-15Ks. On the other hand, the test aircraft lacks important features like fly-by-wire, which will be present in the final F-15SE, and in Saudi Arabia’s more conventional F-15SAs. Korea Times | Yonhap | Bloomberg | Flight International.
April 2/12: F-X-2. Boeing delivers the final 2 F-15K Slam Eagles to the Republic of Korea Air Force at Daegu Air Base, ROK. All ROKAF F-15Ks were delivered on cost and on schedule. Boeing.
F-X-2 all delivered
Feb 23/12: F-15K support, 2012-2017. Boeing announces a 5-year, $300 million Performance Based Logistics (PBL) contract to support the ROKAF’s F-15K fleets. The PBL model offers agreed-upon bonuses and penalties around specific outcomes, like mission readiness rates. In some cases, the contract will simply require the outcome and offer a fixed-fee payment.
The exact terms of such deals are everything, but Boeing isn’t discussing them. They do note that their responsibilities under the new contract will involve chain forecasting; coordinated procurement of production and spare parts to benefit from economies of scale; rigorous supplier contracting, quality and risk-management practices; and more efficient delivery processes, as well as collaboration with customer maintenance depots and local industry. Their partner Hyundai Glovis will provide in-country logistics handling, and supply chain distribution activities.
“Boeing is pleased to continue supporting the ROKAF F-15 fleet, which already has achieved some of the best mission-capability rates of any air force operating the F-15, and those rates have continuously improved since the aircraft’s introduction to the ROKAF,” said Jim O’Neill, vice president and general manager, Boeing Integrated Logistics.”
F-15K support
Feb 7/12: F-35 finagling. An exclusive Korea Times report notes that the F-35A will likely fail to meet 2 of the ROKAF’s key requirements. it also explains how this failure will be circumvented, to keep the F-35A in the competition.
The problem is that F-35A is designed for a maximum speed of Mach 1.6, and almost certainly cannot achieve that speed while carrying drag-inducing external weapons. Which is a ROKAF requirement. Indeed, by the time the ROKAF wants the planes, the