A400M rollout, Seville
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Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aims to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the full size military transport market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian AN-70, IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition.
Airbus’ biggest program issue, by far, has been funding for a project that is more than EUR 7 billion over budget. The next biggest issue is timing, as a combination of A400M delays and Lockheed’s strong push for its C-130J Super Hercules narrow the field for future exports. This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments, as the A400M Atlas moves into the delivery phase. Will Airbus’ 3rd big issue become its own customers?
The A400M Program
History
A400M concept
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The original EUR 16 billion A400M Letter of Intent was signed in December 2001 for development and production of 196 aircraft, with a 1st flight in 2006 and initial deliveries in 2008. A EUR 20 billion contract was eventually signed between the EU’s OCCAR agency and Airbus Military in May 2003, for 180 planes. June 26/08 saw the first A400M aircraft rolled out at the final assembly line in Seville, Spain, but aircraft weight growth became a critical issue, testbed issues slowed engine certification, 1st flight slipped to December 2009, and the 1st delivery to a customer (France) took until July 2013.
A 2009 French Sénat report estimated that A400M production would ramp up only in 2014, and that it would take until 2020 to clear the backlog introduced by development delays, assuming acceptable settlement of contractual and development issues. Costs per A400M aircraft were placed at EUR 145 million.
The beginning of deliveries is a key milestone, and its lateness escalated into a significant issue. In September 2008, EADS CEO Louis Gallois reportedly sent a letter to the governments of 7 countries who had ordered the A400M, asking them to waive the contract’s built-in penalties for late delivery. Their alternative was a freeze in production from Airbus. Their core customers refused to budge, the freeze came to pass, and it took until November 2010 before a revised OCCAR contract got the project moving again.
Future
The full details of Airbus’ revised deal can be found in Appendix A, but the gist is that the core countries paid more, including “loans” whose conditions make repayment unlikely. The program was overhauled, and the timeline changed. Overall, A400M deliveries would be an average of 3.5 years late, with an initial plane for France scheduled in March 2013 (it was actually July 2013). The 2012 – 2024 delivery schedule from the revised 2010 agreement is reproduced below:
Unfortunately, as of 2013, this schedule is already obsolete. Airbus Defence & Space’s biggest challenges are fourfold: schedule, shifted orders, second-hand sales, and speed of delivery.
Schedule. In the 2010 deal, France and Spain initially decided to space the same number of planned aircraft over a longer delivery time. Subsequent budgets indicate further delays in France, and other customers are also looking to delay their deliveries. That will “save” money in a particular budget year, but stretching out production means paying fixed costs over a longer period of time. Which means higher costs per plane, unless additional orders fill out the production line and make up the difference.
Shifts. Unfortunately, other core customers are making that difficult. In the 2010 deal, Germany and Britain responded to budget pressures by reducing their orders slightly, while remaining within the contract. Their “options” will almost certainly never be exercised, which means a de facto order reduction of 10 planes.
Second-hand Sales. Airbus’ biggest deal concession was subtle, but its effects are even more far-reaching: customers are allowed to re-sell their aircraft on the global market. So far, at least 26 A400Ms will be up for sale from the core group: 13 from Germany, and 13 “austere configuration” planes from Spain. Both countries need the initial deliveries to keep their aged airlift fleets running, but the “zu verkaufen” signs should start going up around 2018. France is also considering such sales, but in a more abstract way. For now, their immediate and urgent need for aerial transport capacity will keep them squarely focused on bringing the A400M Atlas into their operational fleet.
Speed of delivery. A lack of serving aircraft to act as an example and qualification, and a backlog of almost 200 planes, have already cost Airbus potential opportunities in Norway, Canada, and India. Lockheed Martin is using that time to solidify the C-130J variant’s position as a transport and special forces aircraft with roll-on special mission options, including precision weapons and maritime patrol. Meanwhile, Embraer’s jet-powered KC-390 is putting its own plans and customer base together on 2 continents.
A400M: Tech Specs and Issues
Airbus on A400M
According to the February 2009 report from the French Sénat, serious development problems and delays have arisen in the aircraft’s digital engine controls, navigation and low-level flight systems, horizontal tail surfaces, and the definition of the wing design. The November 2010 agreement involves an interim standard that would not be capable of the more sophisticated flight modes, until avionics issues have been resolved.
The key specifications change to date involves base weight estimates that have risen by 12t/ 26,500 pounds. Airbus isn’t proposing to change the aircraft’s 37t carrying capacity, which implies a new maximum landing weight of 134t instead of 122t. That means that the most likely performance changes will be to speed (300 knots target), unrefueled range (3,450 nm target for 20t C-130J class payload; 1,780nm target at maximum 37t), and to the length of runway required for takeoff (914 m/ 3,000 feet target) and landing (822 m/ 2,700 feet target) when fully loaded.
A400M cockpit
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A cruise speed of Mach 0.68 – 0.72 would have approached the C-17 strategic transport’s Mach 0.74 – 0.77, and significantly bettered the C-130J’s Mach 0.56 – 0.59. Testing of production aircraft will reveal where the A400M ultimately ends up, and how much of a competitive advantage it can retain. After 2015 or so, the jet-powered Embraer KC-390 will put even more pressure on the A400M to offer competitive performance in this area.
Takeoff and landing distances are also worth watching. Some customers and potential customers may have issues if performance changes extend those runway lengths extend too far, and begin to exclude a number of bases currently in use by Lockheed’s competing C-130 family.
A400M: Industrial Team
Technically, the OCCAR contract is with Airbus Military Sociedad Limitad (AMSL). AMSL includes various divisions of EADS (90%), Turkish Aerospace Industries (5.6%), and Belgium’s Flabel (4.4%). Industrial roles include:
Contracts & Key Events
2014 – 2016
Malaysia’s delivery schedule. 1st UK delivery and schedule.
RAF Brize Norton
August 30/16: Airbus has successfully conducted a sand strip landing test of its A400M transporter during certification demonstrations in Woodridge, UK. The surface is the last of three unprepared landing strips on which the company is certifying the aircraft to operate, and follows completion of gravel testing during trials in Ablitas, Spain, and testing on a grass surface in Écury-sur-Coole, in France. A final week of testing will now be carried out with the aircraft carrying higher payloads.
July 28/16: Airbus is to take a $1.5 billion hit for issues involving delays with its A400M transporter and A350 jetliner. The A400s gearbox issues accounted for $1.03 billion of the losses, adding to $5 billion already ready written off during the aircraft’s development. Designed to give some of Europe’s NATO members an independent heavy transport capability, the cost overruns are now being attributed to an overambitious fixed cost with delays and mishaps cutting into a slim profit margin.
July 27/16: French aerospace laboratory Onera has released details on their test of the A400M transporter. The company had been contacted by manufacturer Airbus to conduct the studies of a new hose and drogue configuration designed to permit helicopter refueling from the airlifter. Customers involved in the A400 program’s development have experienced frustration over the lack of helicopter refueling capabilities, with France having already bought two Lockheed Martin KC-130J tankers to perform the task, and Germany considering a similar acquisition.
July 21/16: Four more A400M cargo aircraft will be delivered to Germany from Airbus by the end of the year. Issues involving the aircraft’s gearbox have resulted in a reduction of unit delivery, with the company now capable of delivering a total of five in 2016 rather than the originally agreed nine. With 53 A400s ordered by Germany, the defense ministry convened a new working group on June 29 to look at the country’s transport needs, including how to bridge the capacity gap caused by delays in the A400M program.
July 11/16: Airbus has had an interim fix to the cracking issue found on the power gearbox of the A400M certified by the European Aviation Safety Agency. Officials at the company stated that production of the new component will start immediately but it is not clear how fast can the retrofit kits be delivered to the end user. The issue has affected two of the three aircraft already delivered to the German Air Force.
July 6/16: Cracks on two out of three A400Ms operated by the German Air Force have been discovered on their propeller boxes, with Airbus due to replace one of the four engines on the first aircraft this week. The company has declined to say how many of the 27 troop and cargo carriers already delivered to customers have been affected by the issue. Power gearboxes used on the aircraft are manufactured by General Electric’s Italian unit Avio Aero.
June 23/16: France has received delivery of its first A400M aircraft with tactical capabilities from Airbus. While the delivery is number nine of an eventual 50 A400s, aircraft MSN33 is the first with the ability to participate in missions such as airdrops and includes the addition of cockpit armor and defensive aids system equipment, plus clearance for the Atlas to transfer and receive fuel in-flight. It’s expected that two more such aircraft will be delivered by the end of the year, and three already in service will be upgraded with such features.
June 22/16: Airbus believes that it has found a solution to its A400M tactical transport incapability of refueling helicopters in flight. Tests conducted on the company’s H225 helicopter revealed that the rotorcraft’s proximity to its T-tail meant that the air-to-air refueling activity could not be safely completed using a standard, 24.4m (80ft)-long hose. The potential solution, still awaiting tests, involves using a stiffer hose that is more narrow in diameter which will result in a slower refueling time.
June 7/16: A looming capability gap in Germany’s military transport fleet may result in the Ministry of Defense looking to urge A400M partner nations to procure and jointly operate a limited fleet of C-130 Hercules airplanes. Ongoing participation of German forces in Mali has highlighted the need for aircraft capable of landing on small and poorly fortified airfields and participation in special operations, limitations found in the A400M. At present, Germany operates the C-160 Transall which is due for retirement in 2021.
June 3/16: Despite the mounting delays, Germany is to keep true to its commitment to the A400M program. The government is, however, looking at acquiring other transport planes since the aircraft cannot land at small airports. Germany has taken umbridge with Airbus’s delays over the last few months, with German parliamentary and military sources indicating that the German air force was looking at potentially acquiring up to 10 C-130J aircraft built by Lockheed Martin.
June 2/16: Some of the problems surrounding the development of the A400M cargo lifter are “homemade” according to Chief Executive Officer of Airbus Group, Tom Enders. Quoted in German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, Enders said that the current issues in the program could have been avoided by not opting to develop the aircraft’s engine from scratch, but also mentioned the insufficient quality from suppliers. Despite the delays the issues have caused to delivery, Airbus has urged governments to stay the course and not look for alternatives…naturally.
May 16/16: Airbus is to swap out parts and components of its troubled A400M aircraft during regular maintenance and upgrades after cracks were discovered in a French aircraft. German lawmakers were notified of the updates after being addressed by Germany’s Defense Ministry. With three of Germany’s 53 ordered A400s delivered, the government has demanded retrofits of the three aircraft which did not meet requirements, such as air dropping of paratroopers and equipment, and medical evacuations. Feared delays to delivery may send Berlin looking elsewhere to meet its transport aircraft gap with Lockheed Martins C-130J and Boeing’s C-17 potential options.
May 13/16: Indonesia is to consider purchasing a small number of Airbus A400M cargo aircraft, making them the first export country outside of Europe. The country’s interest in the troubled aircraft was expressed by Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu who talked to Reuters on May 11. Ryacudu also said the government agreed to buy eight Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets this year, but added the price was still being negotiated.
April 29/16: Airbus has reported further delays to the development of the A400M with the latest issue involving the engine gearbox of the military transport plane. In a statement following the the first-quarter financial results by chief financial officer Harald Wilhelm, he warned of “serious challenges for production and customer deliveries” of the A400M this year. Negotiations on a new delivery schedule are being held through OCCAR, the European procurement agency.
April 8/16: Glitches surrounding the production of the turboprop TP400 engine gearboxes on the A400M may take several months to rectify. The comments were made by Philippe Petitcolin, CEO of Safran, one of the companies behind manufacturer Europrop. “There is no problem in the short term, but it affects reliability in the long term. It is being fixed,” he said, indicating that while it may take time to fix, it will not affect delivery schedules of the aircraft. The A400M is powered by two pairs of turboprop engines whose propellors rotate in opposite directions, requiring two different versions of the gearbox.
April 4/16: New issues surrounding the propeller gear boxes on the Airbus A400M will not affect delivery, according to the company. The first issue regards the material structure and strength of the ring gear in about 14 gear boxes produced in the first half of 2015. A separate fault is an issue with the cracking of a plug that could see small parts of metal released into the oil system of the gearbox, affecting gear boxes that rotate to the right. Airbus plans to deliver 20 of the cargo planes to customers this year.
March 18/16: The German Air Force may look to acquire additional transport aircraft alongside its procurement of Airbus A400Ms. Sources within the government and military have denied that the new buys are in relation to ongoing problems with the A400M; however, as many as ten new aircraft may be purchased. Potential models for the Germans could be Lockheed’s C130 Hercules, as the A400M is too wide and heavy to land on some runways.
February 25/16: Following a 2015 filled with delays, fines and threats of lawsuits, Airbus aims to double deliveries of their A400M transport aircraft in 2016. Having only completed 11 deliveries last year, the company’s chief executive Tom Enders has vowed a target of “20-plus” deliveries in 2016. Stable revenues in Airbus’ defense and space division has helped the company, which is trying to realign their delivery and upgrade schedule to make up for delays. But upgrades regarding the aircraft’s military capabilities remain a challenge.
January 11/16: Problems surrounding the Airbus A400M acquisition by a group of European NATO members are set to continue as Turkey expects not to receive any deliveries this year. Ankara was expecting two of the heavy cargo planes to arrive during the year as part of an order for ten made in 2003. The initial schedule would have already seen Turkey take possession of six by 2016, but only three are now in operation. Delays to the schedule seem to have stemmed from the May 2015 A400M crash in Spain which saw four airmen killed. As a safety precaution, all deliveries of the aircraft to customers were stalled. The news comes as others in the program, such as France, have looked elsewhere to make up for the temporary shortfall.
December 16/15: Turkey has received delivery of its third Airbus A400M after the first two had been sent back to Spain for retrofit and software work. The delays in their flights came following the crash of an A400M in Spain during the summer. Disputes have arisen between the Turkish government and Airbus over delays and production problems, but they are not the only country to have done so. While Germany has started to receive initial orders of the plane, it fined Airbus $14 million in November over delays to deliveries.
December 4/15: Germany has received the first Airbus A400M cargo aircraft, with a second planned to be delivered by the end of the year. Five were initially to be delivered to Germany in 2015, but delays have caused this to be scaled back to just two. Slow production of the aircraft has led to delays in deliveries to seven European NATO members involved in the A400M program. Germany fined Airbus $14 million last month once the late delivery was announced. Germany has ordered 53 of the aircraft in total which is Europe’s most expensive aircraft acquisition program.
December 3/15: The Spanish government has come to an agreement with Airbus to decrease its order of A400M cargo aircraft. Spain is legally obliged to continue with the purchase of the full fleet of 27, but this has been postponed. Instead, a temporary reduction in the order will be allowed with 14 planes being delivered by 2022. Discussions will then continue as to what will be done with the remainder of the acquisition. Problems with the order arose after the Spanish Air Force found it difficult to fund the full order on time. The Airbus A400M Atlas program was developed for the requirements of seven European NATO members. At a cost of $22 billion, it is Europe’s biggest arms contract, but had been initially fraught with delays and technical problems. One of the planes crashed in May, just north of Seville, during an air force test flight.
November 27/15: Airbus is to offer surveillance and intelligence reconnaissance upgrades for its A400M and A330 Airborne tanker planes. The announcement comes at a time when governments are seeking a short-cut to enhance intelligence gathering capabilities, as action against the Islamic State increases along with operational requirements. The ability for these aircraft to hold all required fuel in their wings allows for existing off the shelf equipment to be installed with ease. Airbus has orders for these planes from France, Britain, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, all of whom are currently taking action in the Middle East. This could be seen as an attempt by Airbus to boost the usability of their aircraft amid a decrease in sales of the A400M. The drop is a result of the crash of one of the planes in Spain earlier this year.
November 16/15: Germany has reportedly fined Airbus €13 ($14) million for its failure to deliver on time two A400M military transport planes. This follows reports from earlier this year of the German Ministry of Defense seeking €300 ($280) million compensation from the company over its delays and France cancelling its order in favor of C-130 Hercules from Lockheed.
October 12/15: Egypt is showing interest in the Airbus A400M, according to two Spanish press reports [Spanish]. With potential deals falling through with South Africa and Chile (which opted for the Embraer KC-390), the North African country would be the first export customer after Malaysia joined the program in 2005, as well as the first customer following the crash of one A400M in May. Egypt operates 24 C295 transports, also manufactured by Airbus.
September 11/15: The Royal Air Force appears to have taken delivery of its fourth A400M aircraft, with 70 Squadron’s Twitter account posting a photograph of the new transporter at RAF Brize Norton. A third aircraft was delivered in July, with a total of 22 on order from Airbus. The Ministry of Defence’s Defence Infrastructure Organisation began work in August to expand the Brize Norton airbase to accommodate the growing fleet.
August 6/15: With the delivery of a third Airbus A400M transporter to the Royal Air Force in July, the UK’s Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO) has begun construction of a new maintenance facility for the fleet. The $65.7 million project at RAF Brize Norton is slated for completion next year, with the RAF expecting the delivery of nineteen more A400Ms.
May 11/15: Following the crash of an Airbus A400M transport aircraft in Seville, Spain on Saturday, the Royal Air Force, Luftwaffe and Turkish Air Force have grounded their fleets. The aircraft was on an Airbus test flight, with the crash killing four crew members. The destroyed aircraft was due for delivery to Turkey in June, which would have made it the third Turkish A400M, following a 2003 contract for ten of the aircraft.
March 17/15: First delivery to Malaysia. Malaysia
received the first of four Airbus A400 transport aircraft, with this being the first export customer for the model.
Jan 30/15: Military aircraft chief fired over delays. Airbus sacked its military aircraft chief as European partners chafe at continuing delays in the delivery of the A400M heavy lift plane. Domingo Ureña Raso is out and the program’s industrial activities will be transferred to another unit. A wider reorganization is underway, the details of which are to be announced in late February.
Dec. 8/14: MRO. The UK’s Defence Equipment & Support and France’s DGA finalized their joint support contract with Airbus via the OCCAR agency, whose terms had been a point of contention for years (see Oct 12/11 entry). In the meantime France had put an ISS contract in place back in February 2013. The two countries will share spares inventory and maintenance services. Sources: UK MoD | DGA.
Nov. 28/14: UK schedule. Since the 1st delivery was delayed and acceptance is taking more time than expected, one or two of the UK’s first 4 A400Ms may now be delivered in early 2015. Officials hope to reach initial operating capability later that year with 7 aircraft, and reach the total of 22 deliveries by 2018. Standard Operating Clearance 1.5 has slipped into 2015, when the aircraft should demonstrate tactical capabilities that are still unmet.
Source: AviationWeek: A400M Capability Delays Won’t Impact U.K. Operations.
Nov 17/14: UK 1st delivery. Following its maiden flight in August, the UK received its first A400M aircraft at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire, where the fleet will be based. This comes about 6 weeks behind the expected date.
UK’s 1st
Nov 14/14: Airbus outlook. Airbus announced strong financial results 9 months into 2014 but had this to say on the Atlas:
“The A400M programme industrial ramp-up is ongoing and entering into progressive enhancements of military capabilities but with some delays incurred. The sequence of progressive enhancements and deliveries is under negotiation with customers and related costs, risks and mitigation actions are under assessment. A contractual termination right became exercisable on 1 November 2014. However, management judges that it is highly unlikely that this termination right is exercised.”
Final assembly
Sept 23/14: Malaysia. Airbus announces that the 1st of 4 aircraft ordered by Malaysia is under final assembly in Seville, Spain, and will be delivered at the beginning of 2015, presumably before the LIMA ’15 airshow. Two more deliveries are to follow through 2015, and a final one in 2016. Malaysian pilots are currently being trained by the company. With just 4 planes this will complement rather than replace the existing fleet of C-130s.
The program’s cost comes to MYR 3.5 billion (around $925 million at 2005 exchange rates) including training and logistics, according to the Malaysian Air Force. That’s a sizable investment for a country whose entire defense budget barely reached $5 billion in 2014 (MYR 16.1 billion), with just $850 million (MYR $2.7 billion) available for “development” (i.e. procurement) according to the Treasury.
IHS Jane’s has the cost at a much higher MYR 8 billion. We think that’s just wrong. It contradicts official figures, and even after a sizable industrial offset with Composites Technology Research Malaysia (CTRM) as part of the original deal, it’s way out of scale with both the aircraft’s known flyaway cost and the country’s finances. Sources: Airbus, Malaysian Air Force and Treasury websites | IHS Jane’s: “First A400M for Malaysia takes shape” | See also MYR 3.5 billion figure in 2012 Malaysia Star, “A400M airlifter gets RMAF chief’s seal of approval”.
Sept 22/14: Germany. Several German newspapers report that an internal memo exchanged last month between the Defense Ministry and federal government auditors states that the government reserves the right to push for price reductions or even terminate the order on a case-by-case basis for any aircraft that falls short of its contractual configuration. The Bundeswehr will need the aircraft soon if it wants to help in interventions from Western Africa to Iraq, as its 5-decade-old Transalls are creaking and some parts are no longer available. There is always the SALIS fallback, which is starting to look long in the tooth for an “interim” solution. Sources: Reuters: “Germany pushes Airbus for cost cuts on A400Ms” (sourced on tabloid Bild am Sonntag) | Die Welt: “So marode sind die Maschinen der Bundeswehr”.
MSN15
Aug 29/14: UK 1st flight. Airbus announces that MSN15, the 1st of 22 aircraft order by the RAF, made its maiden flight, one month ahead of its scheduled delivery.
Aug 28/14: Aerial Refueling. An Airbus A400M test plane successfully performs 5 air-to-air refueling tests with a Spanish EA-18 Hornet fighter, with 33 dry contacts and 35 wet contacts that dispensed 18.6 tonnes of fuel.
The A400M has a basic fuel capacity of 50.8 tonnes, which can be expanded using optional extra cargo hold tanks. Full provisions for Air-to-Air Refueling (AAR) operations come installed as standard, but the A400M requires the installation of an air-to-air refueling kit with the requisite pods, etc. in order to become a tanker.
A400M: Short take-off
July 24/14: A400M Batch I. Aircraft MSN10 (4th production A400M, France’s 3rd) becomes the first of its type to be produced in “Batch 1” version, with a fuel inerting system, and improvements in the avionics and cargo system. In addition:
“To enable the delivery of MSN010, OCCAR-EA has prepared and signed in behalf of France a Contract Amendment related to the implementation of the LPM (Loi de Programmation Militaire) conditions and has signed in behalf of France and the UK a contract amendment related to the definition of “Batch 1 aircraft”, including FR/UK swap of production aircraft. This concludes extensive work performed by all parties that define the conditions of delivery for the four FR Batch1 aircraft (MSN10, 11, 12 and 14) and that update the A400M delivery schedule.”
Sources: OCCAR, “First A400M in “Batch 1″ configuration delivered”.
July 16/14: Aerial Refueling. Airbus performs the first aerial refueling of the A400M, using an RAF A330 Voyager with a Fuselage Refueling Unit. In the course of 4 flights, by day and night, in southern Spain, the A400M received more than 80 tons of fuel in 100 “wet contacts.”
The A400M relies on its probe for refueling, and requires a drogue hose from its refueling tanker. Sources: Airbus DS, “Airbus A330 tanker aircraft refuels A400M”.
July 7/14: Turkey. Turkey’s A400M Atlas complete its 1st international flight, carrying the TuAF’s Soloturk F-16 demonstration team to London for Farnborough on July 2, and touching down in Luxembourg on its way back. Sources: Hurriyet, “Turkish A400M carries military equipment in debut international flight”.
July 2/14: Sub-contractors. South Africa’s Denel Aerostructures announces a 6-year, R 260 million (about $24.2 million) sub-contract from Airbus to manufacture a combination of aluminum rails and cross-tracks for the A400M’s cargo hold. It was reportedly a competitive tender bid.
The firm is already building the plane’s center wing box top shell, and the cargo hold components are expected to begin delivery to Germany by September 2014. Sources: The Citizen, “Denel Aerostructures land military airbus deal”.
May 22/14: Germany. Diehl Defence announces that it will work with its long-time partner Elbit to supply defensive systems for the German A400M fleet. Their cooperation would combine 3 of Elbit System´s J-MUSIC systems into a multi-turret DIRCM (Directed Infrared Counter Measure) system with 360 degree protection.
MUSIC comes in podded (C-MUSIC) and DIRCM solutions, and is designed to protect civilian airliners as well as military aircraft. Existing MUSIC military customers include Italian Air Force C-130J and C-27J military transports and AW101 CSAR helicopters, and Brazil’s KC-390 military transports. Sources: Diehl Defence, “Diehl signed a cooperation agreement with Elbit Systems on A400M protection system” | Defense Update, “Israeli DIRCM laser to protect German A400M transport planes”.
April 4/14: Turkey. Airbus announces that Turkey finally accepted its 1st A400M, and “following today’s contractual transfer of title, the aircraft will be flown to Kayseri air base in central Turkey, where it will initially be used for training.” Airbus CEO Tom Enders had denounced (q.v. Feb 27/14) the Turkish Air Force’s earlier refusal of the aircraft delivery as pure bargaining. Sources: Airbus, “Airbus Defence and Space delivers A400M to Turkish Air Force.”
Feb 27/14: Chile. Infodefensa reports that Chile has sent Airbus an RFI in September 2013 regarding 4-6 C295 light tactical transports, and is also expressing interest in up to 6 A400Ms. Chile actually signed a Declaration of Intent to buy up to 3 A400Ms in July 2005, but they formally switched their interest to Brazil’s smaller jet-powered KC-390 in 2010. Their tactical airlift fleet certainly needs some help, as it’s composed of 3 very aged C-130B/H Hercules medium tactical transports, 3 old C-212 light tactical transports, and about 13 DHC-6 Twin Otter “bush planes”.
The C295 is already in Chilean service as a maritime patrol aircraft, and Chile is reportedly interested in signing a deal for a couple of transport variants before the end of the year. C-212s suffered a series of lethal accidents in 2012, including a Chilean crash that killed 21 people. Their replacement is a high priority. The A400M vs. KC-390 question is less clear, as Chile’s delivery timeline is closer to “end of the decade.” The 2010 MoU with Embraer isn’t binding, and Chilean sources told Infodefensa that:
“Lo que se hara sera evaluar las prestaciones de ese avion, cuando hayan ejemplares de produccion, para determinar si satisface los requerimientos operativos de Chile, sin descartar otras opciones que puedan cumplir dichos requerimientos en mejor forma”
Translation: “When the KC-390 has a flying plane to evaluate, we’ll see if it satisfies our requirements. But we reserve the right to pick something else first, if we think it meets our requirements better.” The A400M is a larger plane that will carry heavier loads, by a margin of around 10t, and may also perform better in Chile’s dusty environs. The flip side is that it’s a significantly more expensive plane, but Chile might be able to get a deal on some of the 13 “austere configuration” aircraft that Spain plans to sell. FACh commander in chief Gen. Jorge Rojas Avila happened to be in Spain at the time of the report, and toured Airbus Military’s factory in Getafe. Sources: Infodefensa, “Chile, interesada en adquirir aviones C-295 y A400M” | Chile’s Defense & Military, “Is Chile Bailing Out on Embraer’s KC-390 Cargo Plane?”.
Feb 27/14: Turkey. Airbus CEO Tom Enders isn’t super-happy with Turkey these days, because they haven’t accepted delivery of production aircraft #3. The plane made its maiden flight on Aug 12/13, and its 1st flight in TuAF colors on Aug 28/13. Enders says that:
“The aircraft is ready to go…. It’s the same aircraft that we delivered to the French Air Force that has been instantly operational and fit for flight. I find the situation increasingly unacceptable…. I constrain myself to one word. Bargaining…. In a multinational program that’s really a problem. How can you efficiently ramp up production if you have no certainty that your customers are taking those aircraft?”
Enders has a point, and subsequent statements imply that Airbus will look to press its case via OCCAR and other core countries, if things don’t settle soon. On the other hand, the Turks didn’t just make a random decision. Undersecretary for Defense Murad Bayar has said they don’t believe that production aircraft #3 meets their contract’s specifications and capabilities. Which is no surprise, given recent German reports (q.v. Dec 11/13). So, yeah, bargaining. Sources: Bloomberg BusinessWeek, “Airbus CEO Says Turkish Delay in Taking A400M Threatens Ramp-Up” | Turkish News, “Airbus and Turkey dispute over A400M military aircraft ” | Airbus Military, “First Airbus Military A400M for Turkish Air Force makes maiden flight” and “Airbus Military A400M flies in Turkish Air Force”.
2013
France accepts 1st production A400M, but long-term fleet size in question; Spain will sell 13 A400Ms, bringing the second-hand pool to 26 now; French initial support agreement; UK long-term training contract; LAIRCM for UK A400Ms, but no refueling pods.
French A400M
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Dec 11/13: Germany. The German defense ministry says that they expect their 1st A400M in November 2014 as planned, but it will not have the full military capabilities ordered. That will require retrofits after delivery, and they’re only expected to be complete by mid-2015. Sources: Reuters, ”
Germany may get full-spec A400M airlifter later than planned”.
Oct 3/13: Training. France signs an agreement with Germany to harmonize training, and share facilities. Training for maintainers and type rating for flight crews will take place at Wunstorf AB, Germany beginning in summer 2015. Operational aircrew training will take place at Orleans AB, France beginning in 2014, and German students will begin training there from 2018 onward.
This isn’t the only multinational effort underway: France in discussing a joint A400M support deal with Britain (q.v. Feb 18/13), and there are efforts within the EU’s EATC to define common operational procedures and common training. Sources: French Air Force, “A400M : Signature d’un partenariat de formation franco-allemand”.
Joint training: France & Germany
Oct 1/13: The economic challenge. Defense-Aerospace points out that the initial A400M ceremony is just the beginning of the real challenge, which is profitability. His core point is simple: 174 planes might keep a production line going for 6-7 years at rates below their 30 planes per year peak, but won’t recover even R&D and launch costs, let alone pay off additional terms from the 2011 deal.
Giovanni de Briganti further calculates that around 1/3 of the core customer planes have disappeared (3 Britain + 7 Germany now options, 13 German and 13 Spanish to sell, and possibly another 10-15 French to sell = 51/174, or 29.3%), and notes that most of the disappearances will compete with Airbus in the export market.
On the bright side, Airbus can look forward to selling one of very few global options during its production run. The C-17 line is about to close, and the Chinese aren’t quite ready to join the inter-theater airlift competition with their Y-20. That leaves the A400M up against the smaller C-130/ KC-390 class 20-ton capacity intra-theater transports, Ukraine’s comparable but ailing An-70 turboprop program, and Russia’s IL-476 jet. Airbus officials tout Lockheed Martin’s super-long sales period for the C-130, but that’s only because it had enough domestic and foreign orders to keep its line open continuously. If Airbus’ core customers cannibalize its near-term export sales and shut the production line, the program may not have a long term to sell in. Sources: Defense-Aerospace, “Ceremony Opens A400M Profitability Challenge”
The Big Ceremony
click for video
Sept 30/13: France. A delivery ceremony for the 1st A400M is held at the Airbus Military Final Assembly Line in Seville, Spain. French and Spanish dignitaries are present, and other deliveries are expected to take place soon. The end of August saw a new A400M flown in Turkish colors, and Sources: French Air Force, “L’A400M Atlas arrive dans les forces” | Airbus Military releases: Aug 28/13, Sept 30/13.
Sept 4/13: Testing. More than a week of gravel airfield testing at Ablitas in northern Spain goes well, with the runway still usable after 25 landings, and no issues with the engines or cockpit, and damage to the A400M “minimal and within expectations.”
Demonstrations included ground maneuvering, rejected take-offs, and propeller reverse thrust at speeds as low as 70kt / 130 kmh, both with and without the optional nosewheel deflector. Sources: Airbus Military, Sept 4/13 release.
Aug 2/13: France. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirms France’s official target of 50 A400Ms by 2025, but also confirms that the new defense budget would see only 15 A400Ms delivered by 2019, instead of the 27 envisioned in the 2010 agreement. He adds that after 2019, those requirements could change:
“Je n’ai pas fait mes arbitrages pour savoir ce qu’il y aura apres 2019…. Le nombre d’A400M sur le total d’avions de transport dont nous aurons besoin n’est pas fixe.”
France can’t reduce the 50-plane order without heavy financial penalties. What they could do is add more A400Ms to a growing second-hand sales pool, stifling Airbus exports (q.v. July 26/13). Les Echos [in French].
Aug 1/13: France. France accepts delivery of the 1st production A400M. It will head immediately to Orleans-Bricy air base, where it will be used as a training platform. The plane will eventually become part of the French Air Force operational transport fleet. France DGA [ in French] | Airbus Military.
France accepts 1st A400M
July 26/13: Spain. The Spanish government approves an extra EUR 877.33 million (about $1.165 billion) in their 2013 budget, in order to finance payments that have come due on several major weapons programs. Just EUR 46.6 million of that total involves the Airbus A400M. At the same time, they will look to sell half of their proposed A400M fleet, and make cuts in other programs, in order to finance investments in their troubled S-80 submarine program, and purchases of their Pizarro (ASCOD 2) tracked IFVs:
“Contractually, Spain has to take all of the 27 A400Ms it has ordered,” a spokesman for Airbus Military told defense-aerospace.com July 29, “but if it wants to sell some of them, we have nothing to say.” He also said that the first 14 aircraft are due to be delivered by 2020, and that a decision to sell off the aircraft on will not be taken until after then, “so it’s still some time off.” He added that Spain’s final 13 A400Ms would be delivered in an austere configuration, without many mission systems, to reduce cost.
Germany also intends to sell 13 of their A400Ms, as a Parliamentary condition of accepting the revised 2010 deal. That cut-rate pool of 26 second-hand planes is larger than orders in all but 2 core countries, which means it’s going to put a crimp in export orders. That isn’t ideal for Airbus, but it isn’t completely negative. If they don’t meet their export targets for new-build planes, they don’t have to pay back their EUR 1.5 billion “Export Levy Facility” loan from the core partner countries. Sources: Defense-Aerospace | Publico [in Spanish].
July 21-22/13: Certification. France may be proceeding to military type certification of the A400M, but Der Spiegel reports that Germany will have serious trouble. Germany is behind France in its delivery schedule, but close enough to delivery that certification needs to start now. Unfortunately, the commercial/ OCCAR approach to certification is incompatible with German law. It needs official Bundeswehr approval from the Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw), working with the quality standards authority in Koblenz or the Military Technical Department 61 in Manching, Bavaria.
The bad news? Instead of the dozen qualified inspectors they’d need, a decade of steady cuts has left the BAAINBw with no qualified inspectors, and misplaced confidence in an external solution has left them with no legally-compliant plan. Both problems might have been solved with the planned Europe-wide military certification, but Europe hasn’t established any such system. Meanwhile, Airbus Military points rather inflexibly to the production contract, which doesn’t have any provisions for German inspectors to oversee final assembly.
As a result, plans explicitly designed to cut the cost of German licensing may end up backfiring, and create a situation in which the German inspectors who must be involved in certification can’t obtain the information they need to certify, but are still held personally responsible under German law in the event of an accident.
BWB undersecretary Stephane Beemelmans has formed a working group (q.v. Dec 20/12), whose May 31/13 memo recommends the immediate hire of 6 people at basic salaries up to EUR 108,000 per year, and the eventual creation in Cologne, Munster, or Manching of a national military certification agency of up to 400 employees within 4 years. Meanwhile, he’s trying to push the concept of a “virtual” national military aviation authority for the operation to certify the A400M. The legality of that approach could end up being decided by a court, and if it is, German A400M flight operations would be placed in a precarious legal position.
Germany’s defense ministry responds to subsequent questions from Bloomberg by emailing a response that doesn’t answer any of the key questions: “The timely delivery of the German A400M, according to the contract changes from 2010, is secure at this time.” Maybe, but delivery doesn’t mean you can fly them. Der Spiegel | Bloomberg.
July 19/13: Certification. The Certification and Qualification Committee of experts from the 7 A400M partner countries recommend its certification to France’s DGA, who is expected to accept that recommendation and issue a certificate in time for final acceptance of the 1st plane. The DGA acts as France’s technical authority, which is responsible for issuing a military type certificate allowing A400M flights.
Civil certification by EASA is its own separate process, and so is military qualification by the EU’s managing Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR). DGA [in French].
April 22/13: UK Costs. In response to a Parliamentary question from Angus Robertson [SNP – Moray], UK Secretary of State for Defence Dunne says that their A400M program is likely to come in around GBP 770 million over initial approval costs (around $1.23 billion), despite a cut in the fleet’s size from 25 to 22 planes. As Dunne explains, however:
“It should be noted that the cost variation quoted is assessed against MOD project approval figures, which represent the total MOD costs for any particular project. They therefore do not necessarily reflect contractual obligations. Project performance can be affected by a number of reasons, not all of which are in the contractor’s control.”
Dunne also acknowledges a conflict between this information and his written answer to Mr. Robertson on Nov 6/12, which listed EADS as having 0 projects over budget. The difference? This answer acknowledges Airbus Military as part of EADS, and it also addresses forecast costs rather than budgets to date. Mr. Dunne adds “the passage of time” to that list, making one wonder what has changed in the last 5 months. UK Hansard.
March 14/13: UK. UK minister for defence equipment, support and technology Philip Dunne confirms to Flight International that new RAF A400Ms won’t have in-flight refueling pods added to let them perform as aerial tankers, because:
“The Ministry of Defence has recently refreshed its study into requirements for air-to-air refuelling capability. This concluded that Voyager will meet all requirements; therefore, there is no need for an air-to-air refuelling capability by the A400M Atlas.”
Does Mr. Dunne even read his own press releases? The RAF’s new A330 Voyager MRTTs lack key defensive systems, in order to avoid conflicts with their secondary use as civil charter planes. Those kinds of warning and decoy systems are necessary for refueling aircraft in hazardous environments, as several Parliamentary reports have noted. Dunne’s own March 4/13 announcement touted their importance to the A400M. Flight International.
March 13/13: EASA cert. Airbus Military announces full EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) civil Type Certification for the A400M. Civil certification is and long and arduous process, and its completion means that the A400M will be able to take advantage of fuel and time saving civil air routes.
French military certification trials continue, but they’re a separate issue. So, too, are other ongoing tests for advanced military functions, including air-to-air refueling when equipped with hose & drogue pods, airdropping of supplies and paratroopers, and low-level flight. Airbus Military.
Full EASA Type certification
March 6/13: Testing. Maiden flight of the 1st production-model A400M, which will be delivered to the French Armee de l’Air. Airbus Military.
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