FRIDAY 11:30 PM, 3RD UPDATE: ”Everything is coming in softer,” one studio exec warned me just now. And it’s looking like a soft weekend overall with total moviegoing only $125M, or -3% from last year. CinemaScores and another round of refined numbers below with full analysis coming.
Summer 2013 has demonstrated there’s no accurate measurement 
anymore to predict domestic box office now that pre-release tracking is meaningless. So the next best gauge I’ve found more accurate week after week is pre-sales. Tracking showed Universal’s Kick Ass 2 (playing in 2,940 theaters) would be the #1 film this weekend. In fact Lee Daniels’ The Butler (2,933 theaters) from The Weinstein Company was the #1 ticket-seller on both big online ticketsellers Fandango and MovieTickets Thursday - and indeed is the #1 film tonight with around $9 million and an ‘A’ CinemaScore from audiences to help word of mouth. it’s also looking like the biggest 
grossing film for the weekend with $27M (although TWC is lowballing $25M). Also interesting to note is that 72% of Fandango’s The Butler ticket-buyers who were surveyed claimed that co-star Oprah Winfrey’s involvement increased their interest in seeing the film. Love her or hate her, Oprah in her first movie role in 15 years is helping The Butler‘s box office right now. (Back in 1998, at the height of her syndicated power when she could sell anything to anyone, she starred in and produced the film flop Beloved.) No one, and certainly not The Weinstein Company, expected The Butler‘s $25M negative cost film to double its $15M weekend projection much less land on top. This surprise hasn’t been seen since the similarly race- and civil rights-themed DreamWorks sleeper The Help opened in 2011. And indeed both small-budget pics’ similar marketing campaigns appealed first to African-Americans through outreach in those faith-based communities, and then widened into the art house crowd and curious general audiences. It remains to be seen how front-loaded are The Butler‘s grosses, a consideration whenever a movie is dependent on pre-sales.
By contrast, British-American superhero action comedy Kick-Ass 2 (2,381 theaters) is looking to open #2 today with $5.5M and drop to #3 with $15.6M for the weekend. Its ‘B+’ CinemaScore may help word of mouth. That underperformance will once again stimulate debate on whether this sequel based on the comic book of the same name was necessary. The 2010 original’s $19.8M opening was also considered dismal, only to make up for it as a hot DVD sale and rental.
Film order right now has #3 as Warner Bros/New Line’s R-rated holdover comedy We’re The Millers which is still going strong, followed by #4 Sony Pictures’ Elysium and #5 Disney’s Planes.
Starting #6 today in wide release (2,381 theaters) is Open Road’s Jobs – the Apple co-founder Steve Jobs biopic starring Ashton Kutcher – which is looking like a disappointing $2.4M today and $6.7M this weekend despite a plethora of TV ad buys. Ashton just isn’t a movie star, period, and the ‘B-’ CinemaScore won’t generate any helpful word of mouth.
And #10 is the IM Global/Demarest/Reliance produced $35M-cost thriller Paranoia (distributed by Relativity into 2,459 theaters) starring Liam Hemsworth and Harrison Ford. Yet another loser from the Milchans: it’s targeting $1.3M today and $4M this weekend. Not surprisingly, audiences didn’t like the film and gave it only a ‘C’ CinemaScore.