Week 1: What’s your new-season resolution?
New season, and new resolution from me to get back into BUAFL wafflage. The ‘Calculator Elves’ at DC Towers have been hard at work putting together some regular season stats for me, so keep an eye out for each team’s 2012/13 regular season offensive and defensive rankings * (‘OR’/’DR’).
Rather than trying (and generally failing, last year) to predict every single match-up between the whopping 75 (74?) teams in BUAFL this season, each week I’m going to try to take a slightly more in-depth look at 6 match-ups that pique my interest…
So, without further ado:
*the elves still have a bit more work to do here clearing up forfeited matches, etc, so bear with them, rankings aren’t finalised yet and may be subject to change.
NEC: Leeds Celtics (5-3 OR: #24 DR: #14) @ Bradford Bears (4-4 OR: #27 DR: #23)
History repeats itself with the Bears and Celtics squaring up in week one just as they did last season. That time around the Bears emerged on top in a tight 14-8 victory, and through the first half of the season, toughing it out against some of the big names in the conference, looked like they were very capable of following on from their impressive rookie campaign and securing themselves the playoff berth they narrowly missed out on the year before.
However, Bradford’s offence appeared to fall apart in the second half of the season, succumbing to two shut out losses and a grand total of only 24 pts scored in their last 4 games – compared with 120 in the first half of their season.
In contrast, the Celtics overcame some early-season stumblings, starting out the season loss-win-loss, before their tough defence (2nd tightest in the conference) allowed them a couple of firm midseason wins. The head-to-head over a slow-to-start Newcastle Raiders team, and clear drubbing of Durham to finish out the regular season gave the Celtics a shot at postseason football many had expected the Bears to snatch up. They took the opportunity and ran with it – surprise semi-finalists!
Coming into the 13/14 season many will expect both these two teams to be contenders for a trophy berth once again and so this fixture will be of significance to both – getting that early step up into playoff contention and a crucial head-to-head victory over a rival, looking at their respective fixtures for the season, could very well have an identical win-loss record come season-end.
Week one is always notoriously hard to predict, entirely down to graduations/recruitment… But I’d be expecting Leeds to ride their postseason momentum over the Bears in a tough and messy season opener. Look out for Leeds’ club President and incumbent rookie of the year James ‘JC’ Carmichael to continue his impressive playmaking with a pick or two if the Bears dare to take to the air.
Celtics 16 – 8 Bears
BUAFL Factoid: Averaging 116.8 points scored per team over the season, the North Eastern conference was the second-least prolific conference in 2012/13, behind only the pedestrian TVC. However, it was also the ONLY conference to have no team score under 50 points on the season.
BNW: Sheffield Sabres (7-1 OR: #5 DR: #7) @ Keele Crusaders ( — OR: #– DR: #–)
Game posponted, but below is Willy’s prediction for when the two do play.
Sabres 60 – 0 Crusaders
BUAFL factoid: The ‘Big North Western’ Conference was the only conference with two teams that managed 250+ points in their season – Sheffield Sabres and the Derby Braves.
MAC: NTU Renegades (6-2 OR:#8 DR: #17) @ Birmingham Lions (8-0 OR: #1 DR: #3)
Well, I can’t not have xpLosION as my featured game from the MAC. Not only is this Birmingham-hosted spectacle always one of the highlights of the BUAFL season, this year it has the added appeal of seeing last season’s two title holders square up under the bright lights of the Lion’s Den, with the eyes of the entire BUAFL-nation watching.
With the smell of silver-polish still on their hands, these two teams are stacked with ‘big-name’ BUAFL talent and will both be coming into the season with expectations of nothing less than repeating their triumphs from last year.
The pretty-in-pink Millergades are yet to best the nations #1 student football programme, and indeed have had a bad habit of getting off to to slow starts the last couple of years scoring only 21 points combined in their first two games last season (including a 38-7 blowout loss to the Lions), before finally finding the offensive rhythm that saw NTU outscore their opposition 257 – 46 through their 6-game winning streak to close out the season and see them lift the Trophy. They’ve got a good crop of their core talent returning, and these playmaker’s abilities will have been boosted to even greater levels by the experience some have gained during their ‘Team GB’ stints. Further, if rumours of struggles for the Loughborough Ex-Aces are true, the Renegades could even have their first real shot at a championship berth in the clubs existence.
Still, when all’s said and done the Lions are fresh off the back of lifting the ‘Big One’ and have never lost an XpLosION in the events history. While this may actually be the first XpLosION so far with something resembling a competitive game, I would still expect the Lions to come away clear victors, a strong start to their title-retention campaign.
Lions 34 – 20 Renegades
BUAFL Factoid: Going on to become National Champions for the 3rd time in 5 years, the Birmingham Lions led the league in regular season offence last year scoring an average of 55.25 ppg (pts per game)
SWAC: Cardiff Cobras (1-5 OR: #62 DR: #39) @ UWE Bristol Bullets (7-1 OR: #14 DR: #18)
There was a time when a match-up between these two former college bowl champs was likely to decide the conference champion…
Last year however saw both teams’ rosters decimated by graduations and in the always competitive SWAC, it was the Cobras who were unable to make the necessary adjustments to perform at the level we have come to expect from what was once the premier welsh team in the league.
For the Cobras, the loss of almost their entire offensive line from the 11/12 season meant that their offence never really got going last year – the Royals were the only team with a worse offence in the entire SWAC. This, combined with the welsh weather taking its toll on their season by allowing them to only play 6 of their 8 match ups, meant the Cobras completed one of their worst seasons to date – an after-season varsity loss to the resurgent Swansea Titans serving to rub salt in their wounds. Still, with almost an entire regular season under their belts, we would expect this pedigree programme to have stepped up over the offseason, any hopefully they’ll get greater cooperation from the weather this year. A preseason scrimmage against conference-rival Demons showed their run game, led by returning premier running back Ayo Akintunde who picked up a brace of scores, is entering the season in strong form – so look for the Cobras to be back into the mix of things in the always-interesting SWAC playoff berth race.
However, improved as the Cobras may well be, the Bullets also featured a very inexperienced roster last year, but made-do… and with style: a final-seconds TD grab boosted them to victory over Plymouth Blitz and saw them through to championship playoffs once again – and Blitz out of a playoff berth entirely. Considering the number of former-rookies that will be returning this year, and rumours of some quality recruitment from senior sides, I can’t help but think the one-time-SWAC powerhouse has more than made up for the single-point that saw them fall against Bath last year at the cost of a perfect season and the conference crown. Look for offensive leaders JJ Davies (QB) and Jamiel Tinto (RB) to fire the Bullets into an early lead as they take on a Cobras defence that will be a lot softer than the UWE ‘Legends’ team that shut them down in a preseason scrimmage last weekend.
Bullets come out shooting:
Bullets 30 – 14 Cobras
BUAFL Factoid: Emphasising that every single point matters – the UWE Bullets came within one point of claiming the conference crown with a single-point loss to Bath Killer Bees in week 6 (20-21), and then within one point of missing playoffs entirely as they finished out their season with a one-point last minute victory over Plymouth in week 10 (21-20) !!!
Southern: Southampton Stags (6-2 OR: #16 DR: #5) @ Portsmouth Destroyers (7-1 OR: #43 DR: #10)
One of the most ‘heated’ rivalries in the league these days.
As the long-time-great Stags look to return to the form that has their programme remembered as one of the true national powerhouses of British college football, for the past few seasons it’s often been their match-up against the young ‘upstart’ Destroyers that decides the fate of the conference.
Portsmouth seemingly sprung from nowhere three seasons ago to snag themselves a College Bowl and the conference crown 2 of the last 3 years. While injuries destroyed their season in 11/12, it was their stingy defence returning to form last year that allowed Pompey to clinch the terminal TVC title, conceding on average only a single score each time they took the field and allowing their under-achieving offence to scrape them through despite averaging only 11pts/game through the regular season. A surprise defeat to Brighton nearly scuppered their season, but shut-out, single-score, victories over the two Southampton contenders (Stags and Solent) gave them a (brief) trip to playoffs. A highly organised programme, the Destroyers have got their training camp under their belt and will be well aware their entire season could well come down to this season-opening match up. Expect a bucketful of #swagger.
However, with a playoff run that saw them go all the way to John Charles stadium last year, the Stags will hope to have made use of these extra on-field opportunities to solidify an offence that showed flashes of real quality last season. They came into last year at a charge, opening their season scoring an average of 41pts/game over the first three matches, only to also fall afoul of the Tsunami’s devilishly tight defence. Similarly, they let themselves down against the Destroyers in the new year, unable to even find the end zone the single time required to bag themselves the conference crown.
Looking to this match up, it’s going to be a big ask for the Stags to come out of the gates as fast as they did last year, with a preponderance of rookies across their offensive line, look for the dominant Destroyers D-line to take advantage and stifle the Stag’s ‘Air-Antlers’ offence.
Some might think the new conference might mean a fresh start for these two teams, but I think we all know better by now. This gruelling grudge match should be a great way to start the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if despite the Stag’s change in personnel we see more of what we saw last year: one team led by their offence, the other by their D, a slog-fest likely decided by a single score…
Destroyers 14 – 8 Stags
BUAFL Factoid: With the 43rd ranked regular-season offence, Portsmouth was the lowest scoring offence to see postseason football last year – outscored even by the two-win Edinburgh Predators!
Capital: Brunel Burners (5-3 OR:#30 DR:#30) @ King’s College Regents (2-6 OR: #31 DR: #47)
The new ‘Capital’ conference has every possibility of being the most interesting conference in the league this year! Made up of a number of young programs, the conference is devoid of the long-established powerhouse programmes that feature in almost every other conference, and as such? It’s anyone’s guess who’s going to be claiming the playoff tickets out of this one!
One of the most improved programmes in the league last year, the Brunel Burners have certainly got to consider themselves as likely contenders for a playoff berth. Bouncing back from a 1-6-1 drama-filled season in 11/12 to go 5-3, the Burners were unlucky to not grab a playoff berth thanks to being placed in a 12 team conference where half the teams went over .500 on the season (…in a year when a 2-win team went to playoffs from the Saltire, doh!). Led by feature-back Orion Modebe, the Burners saw a significant step-up in performance from both their offence and defence, despite a playing in a conference with a number of big-name teams last year. Their obvious rivals for the conference have to be the Kingston Cougars – whose outstanding Rookie campaign saw them go 7-1 in their very first season, with only narrow losses to conference champs Pompey to both start and end their season (in championship playoffs no-less!) keeping them from finding perfection in their first league year. Others to watch out for are the Imperial Immortals and Westminster Dragons who both similarly to Brunel finished with 5-3 records last year, but hailing from the far softer SEC we would look for the ex-TVC teams to be the ones dominating this new division.
It would be easy therefore to discount the Regents. Only managing 2 wins last season (and one of these an awarded victory) it was certainly a disappointing year for KCL, only managing to take the field for 6 games, in contrast to a promising .500 11/12 campaign. With no ARU to run rough-shod over, these ex-SEC boys will know they’re in for a tough year, and there’s no better opportunity than week 1 when every programme still needs to shake off the offseason rust to take the initiative and make a statement.
Well-funded and well coached, this is the Burner’s game to lose.
Burners 28 – 6 Regents
BUAFL Factoid: Of the teams making up the new Capital Conference, only one has seen postseason football in the last three years – the Kingston Cougars in the Rookie season last year.
And there we have it.
Good luck to all the teams playing this weekend, and if you think you there’s a particularly tasty match up that needs looking at during the season, get in touch @WillyTee1 to see if we can make it one of my ‘Pick 6’.