Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/28/15
Happy Monday! After a super weird weekend in the NFL, I'm ready to settle back into the slightly less insane world of the NBA. The Panthers lose to the Falcons, the Steelers lose to the Ryan Mallett led Ravens, the Rams seem set to sweep the season series with the Seahawks, and the Patriots decide to be the first team ever (I have to think) to defer in overtime... I'm at a loss. Let's think about a sport that makes at least a little sense.
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POINT GUARD
J.J. Barea - FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 23.28 DK Proj. Pts - 24.41
Pretty literally a must play on FanDuel if Deron Williams is out again. Barea is averaging 40 FanDuel fantasy points in his last two games as a starter, which is almost 10x points per dollar, if you're not a math man. There's not much to say about Barea as a fantasy player - he's in the NBA specifically because of what he can do on offense, but can't get a starting job because he might be one of the very worst defensive players. The match-up is meaningless, here - the price is simply too low.
John Wall - FD 10000 DK 9700
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 45.67 DK Proj. Pts - 46.92
When Bradley Beal isn't around to hog a bunch of shots, John Wall is just an elite daily fantasy basketball option. He's averaged 14.5 assists a game in his last 4 contests, and he's gobbling up as much of his team's possessions as anyone in the league. Today he'll be up against Chris Paul, whose age finally seems to have caught up to him on the defensive end. The Clips have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, and are only about league average in terms of their PACE.
Ish Smith - FD 4500 DK 4800
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 24.51 DK Proj. Pts - 25.21
The Sixers managed to find themselves in a close game with the Suns, and I think we got a representative look at how they plan to manage he and Isaiah Canaan's minutes. At 31 minutes, I think his 25 FanDuel fantasy point performance is about what we can expect from him (understanding, of course, that he had a nice match-up here). Orlando is one of the slower teams in the league, but this is just a price/opportunity mismatch that I'll be delighted to take advantage of until his salary hits $5k+.
Also considered: Rajon Rondo in an up-tempo game with the Warriors. Garrett Temple is a great play on FanDuel as well.
SHOOTING GUARD
Evan Fournier - FD 5200 DK 5200
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 24.88 DK Proj. Pts - 27.49
Are we the only people who have noticed that Evan Fournier is playing a prominent role in Orlando again? He's played 35+ minutes in 3 of his last 4 games, and has paid 5x+ points per dollar in all 5 of those. It passes the eye test, too. He's heavily involved in the offense, both as a shooter and a distributor. The Pelicans have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, making Fournier a terrific play in all formats.
Klay Thompson - FD 7200 DK 7300
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 32.37 DK Proj. Pts - 36.17
A couple of off shooting nights (37.5% in the last 2 games) has Klay drifting from the daily fantasy basketball industry's consciousness, but I'd suggest you not let it drift too far. He's actually been shooting more recently - his season average is 14.7 shots per game, and he's only shot fewer than 15 shots once in the last 10 games (he shot 14 when coming back from injury against the Bucks). The Kings play the fastest PACE in the league other than Golden State, and they have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards. Some blow-out risk here, but I suspect Klay plays a huge role even if that's the case.
Terrence Ross - FD 4000 DK 4200
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 19.29 DK Proj. Pts - 22.12
Full disclosure - I've never, not once, played Terrence Ross on the right night. That being said - this is kind of looking like a price/opportunity mismatch, no? Ross is playing 30+ minutes on most nights, and it looks like James Johnson, and not Ross, will be the odd man out in Demarre Carroll's return. He's a little riskier until we see what his role is with Carroll's minutes restriction lifted, but I think we're safe for at least another day.
Also considered: Gerald Green, who just keeps getting 28+ minutes off the bench, and remains very inexpensive.
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SMALL FORWARD
LeBron James - FD 10000 DK 9800
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 49.98 DK Proj. Pts - 52.09
After a rare off-night for LeBron in a bizarre game where the Cavs got blown out by a Lillard-less Trail Blazer team, I imagine we should prepare for a big bounce back game here. And all of the conditions are right - the Suns are playing the 3rd fastest PACE in the league and have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season. Seems like a terrific 50/50 and double-up play, and the increased possessions could make him a big tournament winner as well.
Tobias Harris - FD 6300 DK 6500
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 30.28 DK Proj. Pts - 31.82
Is that the sound of playing Magic everywhere? Well, maybe not quite. Still, Harris is another guy who's playing a lot more minutes recently, but is generally off the radar because it hasn't all completely clicked just yet. If he's going to play 36-39 minute per game, though, this price will climb by 10% before it's all said and done. And, it might wind up beginning tonight. He'll be up against some combination of Alonzo Gee and Ryan Anderson - neither of whom can match his speed and athleticism. Love Harris for 50/50s in particular.
Kawhi Leonard - FD 8800 DK 8700
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 40.91 DK Proj. Pts - 42.65
It's tough to project Spurs minutes from game to game, but our projection system thinks his floor here is something like 4x points per dollar (if he plays 31 minutes, the way he did in the Spurs last match-up with the Wolves), but 50+ fantasy points if they manage to keep it close. Kawhi paid 4x+ points per dollar when the Spurs blew the Wolves out by 25. While that might happen again here, my guess is that he'll at least see some Q4 minutes, and will be a very interesting big tournament play as a result.
Some weird guys to keep an eye on: PJ Tucker and Nikola Mirotic both played huge minutes out of the starting spot in their last games, and if they are starting again - both make fascinating plays in all formats. Definitely some risk as well - so deploy with caution. Omri Casspi remains a great FanDuel play.
POWER FORWARD
Anthony Davis - FD 10400 DK 10500
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 51.11 DK Proj. Pts - 51.89
Davis is playing huge minutes right now, and is doing huge things with those minutes. His price hasn't changed, but he's shot 66 shots in his last 3 games. Orlando, meanwhile, is a great player specific match-up for him. Tobias Harris is too small, Nikola Vucevic is too slow, and don't get me started on trying to picture Channing Frye chase him around. This one could get very ugly for those who decide to fade the Brow today.
Pau Gasol - FD 8900 DK 7600
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 39.73 DK Proj. Pts - 40.38
Taj Gibson - FD 4700 DK 5300
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 26.03 DK Proj. Pts - 26.45
With Joakim Noah out, it remains safe to play these fellas as long as these prices continue to maintain. Gasol is a much better play on DraftKings, and Gibson is a much better play on FanDuel (due to some huge price discrepancies), but you can play either on either site and feel good about it. Gasol has been shooting 17 shots per game with Noah out (as opposed to his 14 shots per game season averages), and Gibson is still price the way he should be while playing 25 minutes a game off the bench. The Raptors have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, which is something of a deal sweetener as well.
Chris Bosh - FD 7400 DK 7100
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 32.7 DK Proj. Pts - 34.35
It's amazing what a few minutes extra can do for a player's projection. Let's take a quick second and math this thing, even though it's semi obvious. We try to get incredibly precise about projecting a player's minutes exactly because of guys like Bosh. When he was playing 30-31 minutes a game, he was a fringe play at these prices. But on 34-35? He's an elite points per dollar guy. That 10% difference in minutes is pretty much huge, and systems that don't account for slight changes in opportunity will get dusted every time. End rant. Bosh has huge momentum right now, posting 24/10 and 30/10 in his last two games, and I like him very much against a Nets team that has nothing to play for ever.
If Jahlil Okafor is out again Carl Landry has been kind of awesome on some very low salaries.
CENTER
Bismack Biyombo - FD 4900 DK 5500
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 27.04 DK Proj. Pts - 27.61
I remain flummoxed as to why the daily fantasy basketball sites seem to be sitting on their hands when it comes to correcting Biyombo's prices. Well, after back to back 38 fantasy point games, it's tough to imagine that the price will stay this way for much longer. Don't get spooked by seeing the Bulls in the "opposition" column - Thibs' Bulls are dead and buried, and Hoiberg's Bulls are allowing the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. I love Biyombo anywhere you can fit him in.
Nikola Vucevic - FD 8000 DK 7400
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 38.26 DK Proj. Pts - 38.79
If you want safety, particularly on DraftKings, you may want to consider big Vuc. He's put up something around 22/10/3 with a few defensive stats on almost exactly 35 minutes in his last 5 games, and has been one of the most reliable true centers around. He's passing the eye test - hustling up and down the court, boxing out hard on every play, and finding good shooters when he draws a double-team. The real kicker, though? The Pelicans. They've allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and are by far his best match-up of the season. Love this man for 50/50s if you're worried about Biyombo's somewhat erratic minutes, on DK especially.
Also considered: Both Boogie and Bogut in what should be a really fast paced game. I just don't know how you begin to project the minutes here, though. More possessions could mean more production, or it could mean a quicker blowout, or foul trouble, or any number of issues. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of these guys as a part of a winning tournament lineup, but also wouldn't be surprised to see them crush their daily fantasy owners as well.
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