Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 9/13/15
You there. I know why you're here.
A) You aren't a football guy, and feel disgusted by the beginning of the NFL season.
B) You know you will be miserable when Sam Bradford gets carted off the field in the first quarter, and want an additional sweat so you can keep hope alive, and not be impossible to be around for your friends and family.
If you want our week 1 picks, by the way, check out Chris Raybon's week 1 NFL picks article.
Either way - you're home. Here are the picks you need to make your Sunday sweat a profitable one. As always, these are the top plays at the position, but not a comprehensive guide as to every single decent play of the day.
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Pitchers
Max Scherzer - FD 10500 DK 11500 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Mia
Head and shoulders my favorite play of the day, and a principle driver for me taking the time to make sure to get double-up lineups in for baseball even in lieu of NFL week 1 excitement. First the awkward bits - Scherzer is coming off of a rough start against the Mets, and is winless since July 30th. But now let's take a deep breath. First of all, while wins aren't "all luck," Scherzer's definitely been snakebit in the past month. The Nats are the NL's 3rd highest scoring team - only trailing the joke-of-a-home-park D-Backs and Rockies. Also, Max is a legit top of the line guy. He's the owner of the league's 4th highest K/9, and the 9th best xFIP. And then there's this match-up. The Marlins are dead last in the majors in terms of wOBA against right handed pitching this season, and are even worse since losing Stanton. They're also starting living punch-line Brad Hand. I can't imagine a safer play than big Scherz today.
Jason Hammel - FD 7800 DK 8100 StarsDraft
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Phi
Incredible buying opportunity for Hammel, here. I'll probably play Max everywhere in double-ups, but I might just do the same with Hammel in big tournaments. He's a top 25 guy in the majors in terms of both K/9 and xFIP, and while my man will throw out a mess of a start on occasion, he's priced a full tier too low when it comes to his upper performances. Today he'll face the "fighting" Phils, who are just .004 wOBA points ahead of the Marlins in the race for the league's worst hitting team against right handed pitching. AND! He'll face Aaron Harang, the owner of major league baseball's worst qualifying xFIP. One can definitely imagine catching some lightning in a bottle here.
Francisco Liriano - FD 10500 DK 10300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Pit
Figured I'd throw out Liriano here just to explain a few things. First of all, I just wouldn't play the guy in a double-up when Max Scherzer has a match-up like he does. But, if you're looking for big upside on a big price tag, Liriano might be your guy. He got knocked around by the Brewers when he faced them last, but that was while he was on a string of bad starts. After putting up 10 Ks against 1 BB in 6 IP against the Reds, I think there's a great chance he'll put up another big game against the Brew Crew. They have the 6th worst xFIP in the majors against left handed pitching, and strike out more frequently against lefties than the Marlins do against righties. Liriano having the overall highest scoring is absolutely in play today.
Fantastic punt play: Pat Corbin. He's got a pedigree, and he's not priced to match. Dodgers rock lots of lefties who are much worse against LHP. Will be tough to get a win against Greinke, but there's legit upside here.
Catchers
Salvador Perez - FD 2200 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Bal (Chen) L Park- @Bal
Our headline play last night, and he delivered, going 2/5 with 3 RBI in a nice match-up against Chris Tillman. Well, tonight's match-up could be similarly profitable for Perez owners. Chen is a better pitcher, but Perez has been .040 OPS points better against left handed pitching during his career, and it might come out in the wash. As a quick aside, I think it's a shame that "Sal's Pals" was Because me? I'm Sal's pal. At least on these prices. Where are you going to get a guy with a 25 year old with a .762 OPS against left handed pitching, and the 2nd most home runs at his position, for the minimum price? Nowhere, that's where. I'm in.
Evan Gattis - FD 3000 DK 3300 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- LAA (Heaney) L Park- @Ana
So, we gave you Gattis last night, and I'm writing this before his game has been played. Here's what I wrote, though, since the idea is basically identical.
If you're looking for more of a pure high ceiling play, consider Evan Gattis. His 23 home runs would be the 2nd most in the majors at the position if he had enough at bats to qualify, and he's been about .030 OPS points better against left handed pitching for his career.
Heaney isn't as bad a pitcher as Santiago to be sure, but his 4.24 xFIP is still solidly below league average, and he also struggles with a low ground-ball rate (38%, in his case). Just an upside play - but it's as much upside as the position offers.
Also considered: Buster Posey. He's been great against right handed pitching this year, and Colin Rea is something less than a major league pitcher at this point. Just think there's more points per dollar safety with Perez.
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First base
Miguel Cabrera - FD 4200 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Cle (Bauer) R Park- @Cle
It's been a little bit of a home run drought for Miggy, but that's just made him more affordable for the likes of us. Given all the buzz around a lot of the young guys these days, it's easy to forget old, boring, absolutely unreal Cabrera. The right handed slugger has the 3rd highest wOBA against right handed pitching this season, but his lack of home run power has depressed his fantasy value somewhat. So, it's tough to call this a huge upside play, even though the man is a legit monster. Bauer is actually a great guy to put up some numbers again. He's solidly below average to begin with, and he also leaves a ton of balls up in the zone. Bauer's yielded equally terrible results to right handed and left handed batters. I like Cabrera in any format.
Brandon Belt - FD 3000 DK 4200 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- SD (Rea) R Park- @SF
Belt's a guy you can play selectively, depending on one major factor - the opposing pitcher's strike-out rate. You see, Belt's 26.4% strikeout percentage has the looks of an embarrassment, but he makes up for all those swings and misses by hitting tons of line drives when he does make contact. His 29% LD rate is the best in the majors among qualified batters, and when you make strike-outs less likely, it means he is actually a nice high floor play. Well, that should be the case against Colin Rea. Rea was striking out fewer than 7 batters per 9 innings in the minors before being called up this year, and it stands to reason that rate should drop further in the bigs.
Albert Pujols - FD 3300 DK 3600 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Mil (Fiers) r Park- @ana
For those of you shopping in the strictly upside isle. Pujols is having a bizarre year, due to hitting a terrific 35 homers, but still having a sub .800 OPS. Has the man suddenly become Joe Carter reborn? Nah, just stupid BABIP luck. Pujols' .221 number is a far cry from his established .298 levels, and projecting the rest of the season at a .221 BABIP would be silly. The fact is, Pujols has 28 homers in 421 PA against RHP this season. That's a big number. He'll also face Mike Fiers, who has spent his career skating by on the thin ice of a low ground-ball rate and generally league average offerings. GPP only play, here, but don't be surprised if Albert goes yard.
Second base
Robinson Cano - FD 3100 DK 3600 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Sea
Just taking a glance at the position, it looks like a semi-boring day for second baseman. Topping my list is one Robinson Cano, whose season line is sullied by a slow start, but who OPS'd 1.021 in July and .894 in August. On top of that, basically all of that production came against right handers, as his season-long OPS against lefties still sits below .600. Today he'll face Kyle Kendrick, who, like a lot of Rockies' starters, is completely terrible. Kendrick is his own brand of awful, though - his 5.10 xFIP (which would be the worst in the majors if he qualified) tops his lowly 4.78 K/9 (which would be the third worst in the majors if he qualified). Play Cano everywhere.
Anthony Rendon - FD 3300 DK 3800 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Mia
But if you want to bob while your opponents are weaving, Rendon makes for a fairly interesting play. He's a young right hander who's been about .050 OPS points better against lefties during his young career, but even more promising is his approach. His 8.1% BB% and his 13.4% K% are both excellent, and while he's nothing like an upside play, he is turning into one of the safer guys at the position. He'll be up against Brad Hand, a left hander with a career 4.51 xFIP. Green light for cash games, though I wouldn't bother in big tourneys unless you just think no one will play him.
Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Det (Boyd) L Park- @Cle
Here's your more off-beat upside play. People won't bother with Kipnis since he's facing a left handed pitcher today, and generally, Jason's pretty darned bad against southpaws. But this left hander is a special breed. Matt Boyd has not even begun to try figuring out major league left handed hitters, and has allowed 9 extra base hits (5 homers), surrendered 5 walks, and struck out just 5 batters of the 58 lefties he's faced in the majors so far. Obviously you could never play Kipnis in a 50/50 with the above guys available, but he's an interesting guy who almost no one will consider.
Shortstop
Brad Miller - FD 2400 DK 3000 StarsDraft 3800
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Sea
Miller is just a good hitter when he's up against a righty. Little else to say than that. He's got a .792 OPS, 9 homers, and 11 steals against right handed pitching this season - simply awesome numbers for a shortstop. I gave you the dirty on Kendrick already, so needless to say, I love playing Miller in any game format you can dream up.
Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 2700 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Mil (Fiers) r Park- @ana
Your super boring high floor play, if Miller's approach scares you. I'm writing this up through 1 plate appearance for Aybar on Saturday's game, and he's already paid off last night's recommendation, doubling and scoring in his first plate appearance. And this is really who Aybar is. He's not a good hitter, but he gets a lot of opportunity to do damage while batting around some guys who can actually hit. If you can get him and get away from the position cheaply, you can save up considerably to spend up elsewhere. But that's all he is, so don't go crazy in a big tourney.
Jhonny Peralta remains very reasonably priced, but it's starting to get ugly there. He's more of a contrarian play at this point, but I'm just letting you know that our system likes him against today. Nonetheless, the pattern is clear - our system desperately wants you to go cheap at the position today.
Third base
Adrian Beltre - FD 2700 DK 3700 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Tex
Sometimes, a position is so clear that the picks sort of write themselves. Tonight is one such night. These three guys are all fantastic plays tonight, so the nuance will come to what your goals are. I'll put Beltre first because I think he's the healthiest blend of safety and upside. I wrote him up last night against another bad lefty - here's what I said:
Beltre is a fascinating case, because he started off the season being both bad and unlucky, and then turned on a dime in July - being good and... unlucky. He walked more than he struck out, boosted his ISO, and his BABIP never made amends. Well, August saw it all come together. He maintained his gains in his approach, but more of those liners dodged gloves, and Beltre wound up with an .874 OPS for the month. Well, Beltre has been .070 OPS points better against LHP for his career, and tonight he'll face a young man named Sean Nolin, who really hasn't had any success past AA. Throw in that lovely Arlington air, and I love Beltre everywhere.
Well, Beltre is on to Doubront tonight, who is probably a small step up from Nolin, but who still represents a guy whom Beltre should crush.
Evan Longoria - FD 3400 DK 4600 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Bos (Hill) L Park- @TB
The quintessential upside play. Our projection system has been trying to give you Longoria since he was priced at $2,400 on FanDuel, with an OPS of .860 against lefties this year. Well, his price has climbed, and the reason for that is that he has tortured left handed pitching. He's now up to a 1.000+ OPS against southpaws, and he just can't seem to stop making hard contact. As for the match-up, you may be wondering, "Who's "Hill" on the Red Sox?" Well, that's Rich Hill! If you're young, ask your older brother about Rich Hill, and he'll tell you how he was all the rage as a keeper play in 2007... before getting hurt and being god awful ever since. This is arguably the best match-up possible for Longoria, and his upside will only be limited by Lady Luck.
Matt Carpenter - FD 3300 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Cin (Iglesias) R Park- @Cin
And then there's the safety guy. Another retread from last night's picks, and another guy who performed well, going 2/4 with a double and a run scored against Anthony Desclafani. Today he'll face Raisel Iglesias, a fellow who is probably a little better than Desclafani, but who is so erratic that it's hard to imagine fooling a professional hitter like Carpenter. Matt the bat has an .878 OPS and 16 homers in 395 plate appearances against RHP this season, if you like numbers and stuff. But yeah - this is an approach play. Great value at a reasonable price point.
Outfield
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2800 DK 3900 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @NYY
Brett Gardner - FD 2800 DK 4200 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @NYY
These two upstanding outfielders headlined my outfield picks last night, and between them, have 2 home runs and 6 RBI going into the 9th inning. Okay, so, Gardner did that all by himself. But that's daily fantasy baseball, baby! The reasoning tonight is the very same as last night, though our system is doubling down on the projection tonight. The two guys who bat atop the Yankees' potent lineup are each way better against right handed pitching, and do generally similar things. Gardner's got a bit more power, Ellsbury a bit more speed, but both can put up a big game - and importantly - they often put up big games together. And if we like them against Estrada, we love him against RA Dickey. The knuckler is left for dead, and Dickey has the league's 5th worst xFIP and a sub 6 K/9. Love these two everywhere, for their low prices.
Mike Trout - FD 4100 DK 4200 StarsDraft 5500
Opponent- Mil (Fiers) r Park- @ana
Our system is calling for a steady hand for the power-outaged Trout. He's still got a .964 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and hopefully he's built up a little trust with daily fantasy baseball players at this point. He won't be at these prices once he puts together even one good week, so he remains a great buying opportunity for any contest unless he's up against an ace. An ace, Mike Fiers ain't.
Curtis Granderson - FD 3600 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Atl (Weber) R Park- @Atl
I feel guilty making almost all the same picks at outfield two nights in a row, but that's going to happen when affordably priced guys have similar match-ups from night to night. Granderson has one major weakness: striking out. Well, Ryan Weber was striking out 4.10 batters per 9 innings in AAA this season. That would be the worst number in the majors. My man is over his head, here, and just isn't equipped to find the holes that do exist in Granderson's swing. Monster game possibility here.
Also considered: More retreads from last night's picks, like Carlos Gomez, George Springer, and Jay Bruce. I'm off to set NFL line-ups! Good luck out there!
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