Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 9/12/15
Week 1 of the NFL, another week of College Football, and then... baseball. But we die-hards are still going to go at this thing until the last gasp of fall ball, doing our best to make a buck along the way. One interesting note - the first week of baseball AFTER week 1 of the NFL is always huge. Why? All the football junkies are busy chasing their losses. So get your tools sharpened, and let's get eating.
If you want our week 1 picks, check out Chris Raybon's week 1 NFL picks article.
As for today's picks - it's a split slate, and I'll give a guy per position at the early slate, and a couple plays for the later bigger slate.
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Pitchers
Early Slate
Lance Lynn - FD 8200 DK 10200 StarsDraft
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Cin
A lot of people will go with Cueto for the early slate, but I'm of the opinion that he's simply worn out at this point in the season. Unfortunately, that leaves us with precious few options. So, I'm going to throw my hat in with Lance Lynn. And yes, I know he is coming off his worst start of the season. But let's have a look, shall we? First of all, Lance Lynn was slightly overrated because of his ERA last year and his big win total in 2012. In reality, he's basically a slightly above league average pitcher with a nice K rate but something of a lack of command. At this point, though, he's priced very affordable for what he is. And there aren't a lot of options early. Did I mention that? So today, Lynn will take on the Reds, who in spite of the big names they possess, have the 20th highest wOBA in the majors. They're are also starting the young and below league average Anthony Desclafani, making this a nice spot to go grab a W. Lynn's a good cash game play here, and I'd consider him in big tournaments as well.
Late Slate
Madison Bumgarner - FD 12600 DK 12200 StarsDraft
Opponent- SD (Kennedy) R Park- @SF
After the dearth of good top dollar pitching in the early slate, Bumgarner comes as a breath of fresh air. He's an ace's ace, with a top 9 K/9 and xFIP, and the league's 6th stingiest BB/9. He's even better at home - his K/9 jumps to near 11, and his xFIP dips to 2.67. He also has an ideal match-up today. The Padres have struck out at the 3rd highest rate of any team in the majors against left handed pitching, and own the 7th worst wOBA against southpaws. Ian Kennedy is not a bad pitcher, so a win won't be as easy as usual. And don't be spooked by a bad start in Coors - Bumgarner is a man among boys, and should be one of the biggest locks of the day for a solid performance. Hell, I could even see playing him in a big tourney, given the lack of other big upside options.
Jose Quintana - FD 7900 DK 8200 StarsDraft
Opponent- Min (Milone) L Park- @Cws
If you want to save up and go for the gold in a big tourney, Quintana might be a good guy to consider. The Twins are actually not bad against left handed pitching (we'll give you a couple of those later on), but Quintana is simply a better pitcher than most guys priced in this range. He's a true talent 3.40 xFIP guy who gets by on terrific control and a reasonable strike-out rate. He's not conventionally exciting necessarily, so what makes him an interesting big tourney play? Well, everyone else is kinda just A) terrible or B) too expensive. Quintana has easy mid-teens/high teens upside, and a win is absolutely possible with Tommy Milone taking the hill for the Twins.
Also considered: Lance McCullers, as a punt play even deeper than Quintana. He's got upside to spare, a great prospect pedigree, and a better match-up than you might think with the Angels. This could also absolutely blow up in my face. But an interesting guy to take a stab on on a tough day for pitchers.
Catchers
Early Slate
Salvador Perez - FD 2200 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Bal (Tillman) R Park- @Bal
It's really tough to find good plays at a lot of positions early, so when that's the case, I try to escape them cheaply. In this case, that's very possible with Sr. Perez. The young Royals backstop has 15 homers and a .762 OPS in 321 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, which is plenty of performance for a catcher, and a great data set for a minimum priced guy on FanDuel. If you're worried about Chris Tillman, you might be living in the year 2009. The Chris Tillman I know has a 4.53 xFIP - the 9th worst in the league among qualified pitchers - and his worst since 2012. I like Perez in any format.
Late Slate
Buster Posey - FD 3500 DK 4100 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- SD (Kennedy) R Park- @SF
Surprised to see Posey at the top of the catcher rankings, given that he's facing a right-handed pitcher? I'll explain. First of all, Posey has had a great approach against righties this season. He's walked more than he's struck out, and making a ton of hard contact. In addition, Ian Kennedy is the rare right handed pitcher who's gone his whole career allowing a higher wOBA against right handed pitching than left. You might not be able to afford Posey in cash games, but if you can, I believe he's a nice high floor play with plenty of ceiling as well.
Evan Gattis - FD 3000 DK 3400 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @Ana
If you're looking for more of a pure high ceiling play, consider Evan Gattis. His 23 home runs would be the 2nd most in the majors at the position if he had enough at bats to qualify, and he's been about .030 OPS points better against left handed pitching for his career. He'll take his licks against Hector Santiago, whose peripherals look decent until you see his hideous 4.80 xFIP - the third worst in the majors. It just so happens that Santiago's biggest flaw is leaving balls up in the zone - his 30.3% ground-ball percentage is the very lowest in the majors, and he gives up home-runs at a breakneck pace. There seems to be a confluence of factors that could lead to a big game. But it's Gattis, so tread cautiously.
Also considered: Stephen Vogt.
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First base
Early Slate
Eric Hosmer - FD 3000 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Bal (Tillman) R Park- @Bal
Not a conventional high upside guy, but you have to love the floor here. Hosmer has an .914 OPS against right handed pitching this year, and has a very solid 53 strike-outs against 33 walks in 335 plate appearances when he's squared off against them. I gave you Tillman's (lack of) credentials earlier, so needless to say, I like Hosmer here just fine for double-ups.
Big dollars, big upside: Joey Votto. But, oy, that price tag.
Late Slate
Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4000 DK 5200 StarsDraft 5700
Opponent- LAD (Bolsinger) R Park- @Ari
If you really want to pay up at first base on Saturday, just grab Goldschmidt. It's been a tepid few weeks for the big D-backs slugger, but even in light of that, you're looking at a right handed batter with a .976 OPS against right handed pitching, and he's got a pretty fantastic 27 homers and 21 stolen bases as well. Bolsinger is actually a pretty interesting young pitcher, but nothing to scare you away from playing Goldschmidt. Winning daily fantasy baseball is all about grabbing great, talented, still healthy guys who have had some bad luck. That's Goldie in a nutshell.
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3000 DK 4600 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Ari
After a mid-season swoon, Gonzalez has been quietly productive in his last 10 games - smacking a couple of homers, putting together some decent counting stats, and drawing plenty of walks. He still remains priced like a guy whose best years are behind him, and our projection system thinks this is a fantastic buying opportunity. Rubby de la Rosa is a young pitcher who's improving, but has been terrible against left handed pitching at home (more walks than strike-outs, 2 HR/9). I love Gonzalez in any format, and considered him for the top slot.
Second base
Early Slate
No one
I'm kind of serious. Our projection system kind of likes Jimmy Paredes and Jonathan Schoop - but how good do you feel about taking a young 2b against Cueto? Some will play Logan Forsythe, but our system hates that play, whatever the upside. I'll wind up going cheap, based on who is actually playing.
Late Slate
Brian Dozier - FD 3000 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @cws
I warned you that I'd be putting in some plays against Quintana. Dozier is just a no-brainer at this price point, and really for any format, assuming you're not starting Quintana. With 27 homers (11 more than 2nd place Forsythe) and 11 steals, Dozier has written the book on upside for the position this season. He's also been .150 OPS points better against left handed pitching in his career. Chicago is a great place to hit as well. Not a lot to not love here, except for Quintana's above average stuff.
Chase Utley - FD 2800 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Ari
I can't tell you how much satisfaction it brings me to see people finally rallying to Utley's banner after beating the "his BABIP WILL regress, you guys!" drum all damned season long. Well, DFSR good old boy Chase has finally made good on our projection system's faith in him recently - averaging 3.35 FanDuel fantasy points per game in his last 8 games. He's done exactly what he ought to be able to do: make lots of hard contact in the numerous plate appearances he gets by batting near the top of a good lineup. And with 4 doubles and 2 homers in that stretch, he hasn't exactly been nickle and diming it. I love him here against de la Rosa.
Also considered: Robinson Cano.
Shortstop
Early Slate
Jhonny Peralta - FD 2200 DK 3500 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Cin
Discretion being the better part of valor, and all. A lot of people just won't be able to stomach penciling Peralta's name into their lineup. Maybe they'll be sucked in to grabbing Tulo against the lousy Nova, maybe they'll be tempted by Bogaerts against Moore. But you just can't call those plays safe on those prices. AND! I know some of my peeps are going to take my boy Alcides Escobar, who will continue to bring his sorry bat to the top of the Royals lineup and get piles of plate appearances. And I'll be over here with Peralta. "WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON, HERE?" you might be wondering. Well, I was wondering that too, until I started to investigate it myself. Peralta has been nearly the same guy in the last two months as he was the months before, with one major exception - his BABIP. It's tailed off my .040+ points, even as he's been in the same ball-park when it comes to his other skills. The Cards still believe. I still believe. There's still tons of upside in this bat, and I'll buy while it's minimum priced.
A great high priced option: Xander Bogaerts against left handed Matt Moore - but the price tag makes me wince, and our projection system is bearish.
Late Slate
Corey Seager - FD 3100 DK 3400 StarsDraft 3600
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Ari
I get that you won't be able to play all Dodgers today, okay? But Corey Seager! So hot right now! Now, Seager won't BABIP .429 at the majors, and he might not end his career with an .800 OPS, much less the .900+ figure he's sporting so far. Still, Seager absolutely has a plus bat for the position for this era of shortstop talent, and like his brethren in blue above, this is a very solid match-up in a great hitter's park. Seager's got decent power for the position and a solid 2:1 K:BB this year. I don't know that I love it, but I like it. I do.
Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 2900 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Hou (McCullers) R Park- @ana
A high floor play that probably won't excite you much. His 3 games are Aybar in a nutshell - 1 hit in each, but adding some value with a couple doubles, some scoring, and a steal. He's priced low because he just won't go off for a huge total, but he'll get his cuts against the raw McCullers, and would be a fine way to get away on the cheap. Theme of the day!
If he plays:
Brandon Crawford - FD 2300 DK 3500 StarsDraft 3800
Opponent- SD (Kennedy) R Park- @SF
I'm not sure why you'd go in any other direction at shortstop, honestly. Crawford has 16 homers and a flat .800 OPS in 336 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season. He's the league leader in home runs at shortstop, and 4th in the majors in wOBA. And he's basically minimum priced against a non-ace pitcher. Just such an easy spot to go cheap and move on, so that's exactly what I'll do. If he plays! If he plays.
Third base
Early Slate
Matt Carpenter - FD 3300 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Cin
One of the answers to the "well, who should we spend up on if we're going cheap everywhere?" Carpenter isn't a classic big ticket guy. But hey, with 16 homers and an .873 OPS in 391 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, he's got some good underlying fundamentals. And the great thing about Carpenter is opportunity - his 83 runs and 72 RBI are a function of where he bats among a good line-up. Desclafani cut the Cards to pieces in his last start against them, but Carpenter went 2 for 4 with a home run as well. I'll take him everywhere, thanks very much.
Late Slate
Adrian Beltre - FD 2700 DK 3600 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Oak (Nolin) L Park- @Tex
Beltre is a fascinating case, because he started off the season being both bad and unlucky, and then turned on a dime in July - being good and... unlucky. He walked more than he struck out, boosted his ISO, and his BABIP never made amends. Well, August saw it all come together. He maintained his gains in his approach, but more of those liners dodged gloves, and Beltre wound up with an .874 OPS for the month. Well, Beltre has been .070 OPS points better against LHP for his career, and tonight he'll face a young man named Sean Nolin, who really hasn't had any success past AA. Throw in that lovely Arlington air, and I love Beltre everywhere.
Trevor Plouffe - FD 2400 DK 3700 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @cws
Another of the Twins' "take me against a lefty" squad. Plouffe's a career .800+ OPS and .196 ISO against left handed pitching, and you're getting him at a near minimum salary. Is there more you need to know, here? Just a great buying opportunity. Plouffe is normally seen as an "upside only" guy, but with a 10% BB rate and only a 16.9% strikeout percentage against LHP, there's plenty of safety here, too.
EDIT: You may have noticed I omitted Plouffe's huge night from the picks. Wrote him up before he positively went off. So, now you know!
More Dodgers, please:
Your wish is my command!
Justin Turner - FD 2700 DK 3700 StarsDraft 3900
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Ari
Turner has been a career reverse platoon split guy, and you've seen the upside he can flash this season. No need to go off, here - just alerting you to the fact that he's yet another Dodger you can grab.
Outfield
Early Slate
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2800 DK 3900 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @NYY
Brett Gardner - FD 2800 DK 4200 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @NYY
The Yankees' lefty twins - and not the first time I've recommended the both of them in this space. Ellsbury and Gardner are both stronger against right handed pitching, and have very similar daily fantasy baseball profiles. Ellsbury has a little more speed, Gardner has a little more pop - but both blend a solid approach with lots of opportunity and a great home park for good fantasy results. Today they'll face Marco Estrada, a once promising righty who now owns the 2nd worst xFIP in the major leagues. Love this stack for all formats.
Jay Bruce - FD 2600 DK 3700 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Stl (Lynn) R Park- @Cin
Yup, I like Lynn, but the price on Bruce remains stupid. He's been .100 OPS points better against RHP for his career, and .100 OPS points better at home than on the road. You aren't going to find upside like Bruce (20 homers, 9 steals) for these low prices too often, and while I like a lot of really cheap guys today, I think spending up just a little from the minimum is looking pretty nice.
Alex Gordon - FD 2800 DK 3900 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Bal (Tillman) R Park- @Bal
Gordon is a delightfully boring double-up option at a very reasonable price. He doesn't hit homers, he doesn't steal bases. But he does club the ball around the park. He's got an .880 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and has been .050 OPS points better against righties for his career. Again, Tillman just isn't the pitcher people thought he'd be, and this is a dream spot to grab a high floor.
Late Slate
Mike Trout - FD 4100 DK 4800 StarsDraft 5500
Opponent- Hou (McCullers) R Park- @ana
Okay, so, Mike Trout hasn't been himself. I hear ya. But if you don't feel like reading, I'll cliffs it for you - he's been hitting the ball hard, but wasn't pulling the ball much. But he faced an unusually high average velocity in August - 94 mph! - and it makes sense that his timing was a little off. What I'm saying is - let's not go crazy here. Trout has been basically platoon neutral for his career, and can hit him some Lance McCullers. I'm in, if I can afford it.
Mark Trumbo - FD 3200 DK 4300 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Col (Flande) L Park- @Sea
Trumbo's price has climbed, but with 4 homers in his last 10 games, it's because Trumbo's been bombing the ball. He particularly does so against lefties. He's got a .900 OPS against southpaws in 2015, and has been more than .100 OPS points better against them for his career. While Safeco is no picnic to hit in, Trumbo's power absolutely plays anywhere, as evidenced by his .938 OPS in Safeco this season. Mega upside play against the below league average Flande.
Dexter Fowler - FD 3200 DK 4400 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Phi (Eickhoff) R Park- @Phi
Fowler's a lot better against lefties overall, but the switch hitter interestingly shows more power when batting against right handed pitching. And whatever floor he loses by batting on the wrong side of his platoon, he makes up in a few factors. First of all, Jerad Eickhoff is just not a major league pitcher at this point. Next, Citizen's Bank is a great place to hit. And lastly - Fowler's job in the leadoff role has seen him getting 5 plate appearances easily these days, and all those trips to the plate mean a lot of opportunity to put up very solid numbers. As a bonus? Eickhoff has a microscopic 28% groundball rate in his brief stint this year - home run upside takes a huge jump against this fella.
Curtis Granderson - FD 3600 DK 4600 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Atl (Perez) R Park- @Atl
The Grandy Man has put up a .900+ OPS this season against right handed pitching, and his price is not quite as high as it could be because of his dreadful performance against lefties. 22 of his 23 home runs have come against northpaws as well. Today he'll face Williams Perez, who pairs a bad 5.71 K/9 with a 4.16 BB/9 that would be the worst in the majors if he could manage to qualify in terms on innings pitched. You can't play Granderson in cash games, but this play is thick with upside.
George Springer - FD 3600 DK 4200 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @Ana
You could also consider Carlos Gomez, here. With 13 homers and 14 SB in 348 plate appearances this season, George Springer is turning into a legit top tier power/speed play. And, like most young players, the vast majority of that will come against bad pitchers in great platoon spots. Well, we've already established that Santiago is A) bad and B) a great guy to hit bombs off of. But I haven't mentioned Springer's extreme splits - his .940 OPS against left handed pitching is just phenomenal. His K% dips 8% and BB rises 5% against left handers as well. I would consider playing him anywhere, but truly love him in big tournaments where you need searing upside.
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