2017-01-18

By Paul Tugwell & Rodney Jefferson

One glance at the map shows you the importance of Cyprus.

The eastern Mediterranean island is less than half the size of New Jersey, but its spot at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East made it much fought-over for centuries.

Since 1974, it’s been split along ethnic lines between the self-declared ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’ and in the south, the Republic of Cyprus.

Only the Greek-speaking south is internationally recognised.

A militarised buffer zone runs across the island and through the capital of Nicosia.

Now the lure of riches from selling natural gas — combined with high-stakes geopolitics — has eased ancient enmities and fuelled optimism that the latest talks on reunification could end the long-frozen conflict.

A deal would free up trade and investment and serve as a beacon of hope in a region roiled by violence and ethnic divisions.

The Situation

The two sides envision a federal state similar to Belgium, with a national government overseeing areas such as defence and foreign affairs.

There are sticking points over land and property, but the biggest fight is over security.

Cypriot leaders were joined at reunification talks in Geneva January 12 by the foreign ministers of Greece, Turkey and Britain, which ruled Cyprus until its independence in 1960 and has military bases on the island.

Under the agreement that ended colonial rule, all three countries were given the right to intervene if the island’s territorial integrity and independence came under threat.

Only Turkey is insisting on keeping that power.

It says it’s needed to safeguard Turkish-Cypriots, a minority of about one-fifth of the island’s population of 1.1 million.

There’s a lot at stake: Energy companies including Texas-based Exxon Mobil want to develop the surrounding area’s oil and gas.

Greece and Turkey, both members of NATO, have been at odds over Cyprus.

So reunification would also help strengthen the military alliance in the Mediterranean as Russia expands its influence in the region.

The Background

Cyprus has been both a victim and beneficiary of its location.

It changed hands between Assyrians, Egyptians, Greeks and Romans before coming under Byzantine rule.

The Ottoman Turks seized it in the 16th century.

The island was effectively partitioned in 1963 when fighting erupted between the two communities following a breakdown of the power-sharing arrangements put in place as part of independence from Britain.

The island was fully divided in 1974 after Turkey invaded following a coup by supporters of union with Greece.

As many as 150,000 Greek-Cypriots were forced south, and about 50,000 Turkish-Cypriots fled north, leaving behind land and property.

A reunification settlement came close in 2004 prior to Cyprus joining the European Union, but the United Nations-brokered blueprint was rejected in a vote by Greek-Cypriots.

Since then, restrictions on crossing the buffer zone have eased, with some Turkish-Cypriots now working in the more prosperous south.

Relations between the two sides warmed after the election of Mustafa Akinci as the Turkish-Cypriot leader in 2015.

He supports reunification along with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and they have pursued their own power-sharing arrangement — rather than one led by the UN.

The Argument

Both sides want a deal that creates stability, unlocks investment and allows thousands of Cypriots displaced by the island’s split to return home or be compensated for lost property.

An agreement would end the legal limbo of the Turkish-Cypriots.

It would also remove a barrier to Turkey joining the EU, since Turkey doesn’t recognize the Republic of Cyprus and bars Cypriot-flagged planes and ships from entering its harbours and airports.

While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has supported the talks, he has long insisted that Turkish-Cypriots have equal rights and their safety be guaranteed by Turkey.

It may be difficult for him to make concessions as he works to consolidate power at home in the wake of a failed coup attempt in July.

Greek-Cypriots say a united Cyprus that’s part of the EU doesn’t need any foreign powers to guarantee security, arguing that Turkey should commit to the gradual withdrawal of its thousands of troops.

Another failure to reach a deal could exhaust the reunification efforts of a generation that remembers the island before it was torn apart. (Bloomberg)

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