WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following is the text of the request for estimates from primary dealers released Friday by the U.S. Treasury that was sent to primary dealers ahead of their meeting on January 30 to January 31 regarding the Treasury's quarterly refunding.
I. Marketable Borrowing Estimates Central Estimates Range that would not surprise you Low/High
January-March 2014 Ending Cash Balance
April-June 2014 Ending Cash Balance
FY 2014 Total Marketable Borrowing FY 2015 Total Marketable Borrowing FY 2016 Total Marketable Borrowing
II. Budget Deficit Estimates and Growth Estimates
FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 Real GDP(4Q/4Q YoY % Chg) CY2014 Real GDP(4Q/4Q YoY % Chg) CY2015 Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q YoY % Chg) CY2014 Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q YoY % Chg) CY2015
III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates
3-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) 10-year note (Feb) 10-year note reopening (Mar/Apr) 30-year bond (Feb) 30-year bond reopening (Mar/Apr) 2-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) 5-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) 7-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) 30-year TIPS (Feb) 10-year TIPS reopening (Mar) 5-year TIPS (Apr) 2-year FRN reopening (Feb/Mar) 2-year FRN (Apr)
IV. Bill Issuance Estimates
52-week bill size (Feb/Mar/Apr) Total change in bills outstanding 2/14 - 4/14 Total change in bills outstanding FY 2014 CMB issuance Feb'14 - Apr'14 (size/date)
DISCUSSION TOPICS:
1. Please discuss your latest economic and fiscal forecasts for FY2014 and FY2015. Is the current auction schedule well-suited to meet Treasurys expected financing needs? What adjustments, if any, would you recommend?
2. Both the August 2013 and the September 2013 5-year note auctions resulted in unscheduled reopenings. Please comment on whether markets were prepared for these events. Are unscheduled re-openings problematic for market participants? Should Treasury take steps to reduce the possibility of unscheduled reopenings? (e.g., adjusting the coupon down 1/8 of a percent from where the coupon would normally be set.)
3. Please discuss any observations and experiences with swap execution facility (SEF) implementation to date. What are the implications for fixed income markets in general and the Treasury market in particular?
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: 202-371-2121; email: dcoffice@mni-news.com