I've been asked how I figure amounts of grocery items, when stocking up at rock-bottom prices, and how do I know when it truly is a rock-bottom price?
The answer is astoundingly boring.
How do I know how much to buy when stocking up?
based on past use, I calculate how much we run through in a week.
based on past sales seasons, I make an educated estimate on when I expect this item to go on sale again.
I inventory my current supplies.
I get out my calendar, and count out the weeks until the next expected sales season, then multiply by our weekly use of that item, plus 1 or 2 extras. Then subtract the amount of our current inventory. (Does this all sound like it smacks of restaurant inventory work? I'm found out. I did work as a restaurant manager in my early 20s.)
So, for example, real butter has a couple of sales seasons, surrounding family-gathering type holidays, such as Thanksgiving, Christmas and Easter. It can go on sale at other times of the year, but I know that in my area, I can count on these 3 holidays for a loss leader price on butter.
Easter is approaching and some of the grocery sales have been announced already. I'm watching ads closely and paying attention to current regular prices when in stores.
I've recently noticed that we're using about 1/2 pound of butter per week. I counted our current inventory of butter and we have about 9 1/2 pounds in the fridge and freezer. I counted out the weeks until the next sales season on butter -- Thanksgiving -- and found that I will likely go through an additional 8 pounds of butter. I'll add it 2 additional pounds, just in case we entertain more, or I bake more, or I just want to pass on some butter to a friend (you know, bring over a loaf of homemade bread along with some butter for it). So, I'll be buying 10 pounds of butter this month.
I've already located a fair price on butter, good through April 20th at Cash and Carry. It's $2.25 per pound. It's possible local grocery stores will have butter on sale for less, but with a limit. So, my plan is to buy butter at it's lowest price between now and April 20, hitting the limits at each store, then fill in the remainder at Cash and Carry.
And with the question on how do I know when the price is rock-bottom?
The answer is two-fold.
are there limits on purchase amounts?
A big clue is if there's a limit on how much I can purchase. This usually indicates that a store is marketing this item as a loss leader, and they want to put limits on just how much an individual can buy at the grocer's loss. And the lower the limit, the better the price that I'm getting, generally.
Whole chickens at Safeway the other week were just one such item. They had whole chickens for 79 cents per pound, but with a limit of 4. Previous years have seen whole chickens as low as 67 to 69 cents per pound, with limits. 79 cents per pound is an increase, yes. But that price may very well be the lowest I find this spring. (Safeway has whole chickens on ad for 88 cents per pound this week, with no limits. 79 cents per pound was indeed a good price.)
Bone-in hams are 99 cents per pound at one store this week, with a limit of 2 hams. I think this will prove to be an excellent price per pound for any cured pork product, in my area.
research and awareness of current and future market supplies
The second method I use to determine when a rock-bottom price is indeed rock-bottom is research and awareness.
On the news this week, it was mentioned that there's been a virus infecting US hogs this year, reducing the hog herds. This will drive pork prices up considerably in the coming months.
I'm already thinking towards early fall, and what meats we'll be consuming. Bacon prices are already quite high, yet they're expected to rise even more. Being aware of future price increases on pork products, I'm thinking I'll pick up an extra ham this week, to freeze until early fall, then bake, slice and use as breakfast meat for our family in September and October, in place of bacon.
So, that's my method. During this time when our family has to watch its budget very closely, this sort of exacting process has been essential in keeping our grocery costs as low as we can.
Do I ever get it wrong, and either wind up with way too much, or pay more than I wish I had, or run out long before I had calculated? Oh sure! I just try my best, and mitigate any mistakes in calculations as well as I can. For instance, if I do find whole chickens for less than 79 cents per pound this spring, I'll probably buy whatever the limit is. If I have more ham than we could possibly want to eat, I'll invite a bunch of friends over for dinner some week. If we run out of butter long before fall sales kick in, I'll just make-do for the most part, find recipes that don't use oil instead of butter, and maybe buy a pound or two of butter at a higher price. We do the best we can, with the circumstances that we've been given. That's the most that we can expect of ourselves.
