We pick the winners at this year’s CMA Awards, guaranteed!*
*Not actually guaranteed, but it’s a darn-fine educated analysis.
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Will Win: Luke Bryan
Should Win: George Strait
Come on, did you really expect us to say someone besides George Strait deserved to win this one? He’s a legend and he’s retiring from the road, so he’s been kicking tail all over the country to say farewell. But this has been Luke’s year from the beginning, from his slew of massive hits to an even bigger album and tour.
Album of the Year
Based on a True Story . . . Blake Shelton
Blown Away Carrie Underwood
Red Taylor Swift
Same Trailer Different Park Kacey Musgraves
Tornado Little Big Town
Will Win: Red
Should Win: Same Trailer Different Park
We’ve spilled a lot of ink gushing over how much we love Kacey’s Same Trailer Different Park, a savvy debut album that’s as tuneful as the songwriting is sharp. But Red is the multi-platinum and critically acclaimed juggernaut that keeps on barreling along with a motorcade full of huge hooks.
Single of the Year
“Cruise” Florida Georgia Line
“Highway Don’t Care” Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
“Mama’s Broken Heart” Miranda Lambert
“Merry Go ’Round” Kacey Musgraves
“Wagon Wheel” Darius Rucker
Will Win: “Cruise”
Should Win: “Cruise”
Like it or not, Florida Georgia Line’s breakout smash fairly recently broke a decades-old country chart record. That should tell you all you need to know about what single was really reaching lots of ears in the marketplace over the last year. Also, you’re humming it right now, aren’t you?
Song of the Year
“I Drive Your Truck” Lee Brice (Written by Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary)
“Mama’s Broken Heart” Miranda Lambert (Written by Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally and Kacey Musgraves)
“Merry Go ’Round” Kacey Musgraves (Written by Kacey Musgraves, Josh Osborne and Shane McAnally)
“Pontoon” Little Big Town (Written by Natalie Hemby, Luke Laird and Barry Dean)
“Wagon Wheel” Darius Rucker (Written by Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor)
Will Win: “I Drive Your Truck”
Should Win: “Merry Go ’Round”
It’s tough to call. Both “I Drive Your Truck” and “Merry Go ’Round” are masterfully written country songs carrying powerful messages, but Lee’s recording was a bigger commercial success in terms of radio airplay. “Merry Go ’Round,” on the other hand, is a wonderfully sympathetic treatment of small-town despair in a year when every other song seemed to say life was all good.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Will Win: Blake Shelton
Should Win: Jason Aldean
Blake took home the vocalist prize the last three years and hasn’t slowed down yet. However, Jason’s star rose to Milky Way heights with Night Train, his most vocally confident album to date.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Kacey Musgraves
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Will Win: Carrie Underwood
Should Win: Carrie Underwood
Miranda Lambert’s taken this one home for the last three years, but has only a new Pistol Annies album to her credit this year. Carrie gets the edge for keeping the hit streak going with Blown Away.
Vocal Group of the Year
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
The Band Perry
Zac Brown Band
Will Win: Little Big Town
Should Win: Little Big Town
Lady Antebellum and The Band Perry have both had admirably big years with new albums, but LBT’s Tornado is the culmination of a long journey that displays these industry darlings at the top of their game.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big & Rich
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars
Thompson Square
Will Win: Florida Georgia Line
Should Win: Thompson Square
Though they don’t have a monster, gazillion-selling song like “Cruise” to their credit, Thompson Square just keeps right on notching the hits and being super-adorable.
Musical Event of the Year
“Boys ’Round Here” Blake Shelton (featuring Pistol Annies)
“Cruise” Florida Georgia Line (with Nelly)
“Don’t Rush” Kelly Clarkson (featuring Vince Gill)
“Highway Don’t Care” Tim McGraw (with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban)
“The Only Way I Know” Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church
Will Win: “Highway Don’t Care”
Should Win: “Highway Don’t Care” We were: RIGHT
The usually mixed-bag Musical Event category is stacked this year, with several No. 1 singles, and Tim McGraw’s breathtaking “Highway Don’t Care” is one of the finest things he’s ever laid down. Blake’s “Boys” was a surefire conversation starter, but it doesn’t match the car-pool trifecta of Tim, Keith and Taylor.
New Artist of the Year
Lee Brice
Brett Eldredge
Florida Georgia Line
Kip Moore
Kacey Musgraves
Will Win: Florida Georgia Line
Should Win: Kip Moore
If the New Artist category is really about awarding promising, exciting new talent, this should go to Kip, who has quietly racked up a series of successive No. 1 hits since his debut album, Up All Night, appeared. But it’s hard to deny FGL’s leap from being virtually unknown new kids to country’s newest headliners. They’ll cruise right to the podium.
Music Video of the Year
“Blown Away” Carrie Underwood Directed by Randee St. Nicholas
“Boys ‘Round Here” Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies Directed by Trey Fanjoy
“Downtown” Lady Antebellum Directed by Peter Zavadil
“Highway Don’t Care” Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban Directed by Shane Drake
“Mama’s Broken Heart” Miranda Lambert Directed by Trey Fanjoy
“Tornado” Little Big Town Directed by Shane Drake
Will win: “Highway Don’t Care” Should win: “Tornado” We were: RIGHT
Little Big Town and Shane Drake evoke the language of classic suspense films—stormy skies, a creaky gate and a child jumping rope all intersperse with scenes of the villain doing his dastardly deeds, and LBT looks flawless in gray and black, stomping the streets on a mission. But it's kind of tough to compete with country's favorite leading man Tim McGraw, who displays his finely honed film acting chops for a dramatic narrative that gives the song an entirely new meaning. Put those cell phones down, kids.
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