I had originally written this to be placed in the Xbox forum, to try and stir some healthy debate and maybe make those still clinging to the console think in the long term- especially since that's what they kept insisting all the critics should do with their 'It's the console for the future!' line. But I realized that it wasn't likely to go anyway, and would probably just drag me into confrontation (I'm provoked into arguments way too easily,) but since I went to all the trouble of writing it, might as well put it here! Also, keep in mind that I wrote this to try and be an objective third party; as much as I find Microsoft's idiocy hilarious from a corporate, it isn't funny to the gamers who were outraged by it, and I won't be the guy going 'Nyah Nyah Nyan!' I also hoped phrasing it in a less confrontational manner would prevent it from getting flamed (lots) and desolving the entire issue into another big snit. You know. Optimism. If anyone wants to repost it on any forum, do it with my blessing; just let me know if it's an Xbox forum, cause I'd be curious as to its reception without commiting myself to arguing about it all week.
The 'Future of Gaming.' I've heard this with regard to the Xbox One, a lot; 'You should buy it because of how it's going to change things in the future! It's going to make things better! Eventually! They've got great stuff planned! At some point! All worth it!'
Here's a problem. Something that most of the discussions I've come across elsewhere seem to miss is that it doesn't just come down to 'Which Is Better?' I've seen specs, policy comparisons like the one made on this thread, all to find out which is the 'better' system... but that doesn't really matter, because it's not necessarily the objectively superior system that will win. It's going to be the subjectively superior or, rather, the one that is most liked by the most people. The worth of the system is secondary to the perception of its worth, and if you can't make that perception mesh to 'reality,' (i.e. make the mob like the same thing you like,) then that reality isn't going to get you very far anyway.
It isn't going to matter if the Xbox One can cloud-process an entire virtual universe, share one purchased game with everyone on your Christmas list, or comes with a muffin button. If too many people perceive its policies and requirements as unfair, unfavorable, or generally unwanted, they might not buy the product. If they don't buy the product, then Microsoft might not make the sort of money they'd hoped for, or have an install base of particularly impressive size. If they don't make the sort of money they'd hoped for, then what effect might that have on their long-term plans? Do you think they'll continue to invest millions of dollars on further boosting the infrastructure of a system, if that system isn't turning a very healthy profit?
It's Microsoft's blasé attitude about all this worries me. They just don't seem to care about the backlash, have constantly insisted that they'll be proven right in the end, etc, etc, etc, but even if they are right, even if their console IS better in all things, (I should mention all-encompassing claims like that worry me too, but that's another issue entirely,) they're going to have shot themselves in the foot if they don't give themselves enough of a financial springboard (during launch and beyond) to deliver on all those lofty promises. The United States preorders on Amazon have the Playstation 4 in the lead on the entire Best Sellers, AND in third place again because they've gotten too many to guarantee all will arrive on launch day. (For what it's worth, the Xbox One is in second place.)
You might say 'Ohhh, Sony's scamming to inflame the numbers!' ...do you think for a split second Microsoft wouldn't be doing the same thing? As things stand, Microsoft would have all the more reason to pay for significant amounts of damage control, because they seem to be taking the most damage.
The U.S. has traditionally been Microsoft's strongest market, but that seems on shaky ground. Now, this pre-order difference in the U.S. could change in the coming months, but Yusuf Mehdi's statements about 'educating consumers' lead me to think their solution to fixing this disparity is to try and change/remove the customers who are protesting, rather than considering alternatives to appease them.
Because, you know, gamers are never wrathful when they feel scorned or taken advantage of.
Further hampered is the fact that the Xbox One will be available in fewer markets than the PS4, (http://crashwiki.com/ps4-and-xb1-list-of-supported-… which means if they want to reach some level of parity with the PS4, they really, really need to kick butt on their home turf. A lot of butt. Quickly. If they can't get very promising figures in their own country, the odds of them building the necessary intrastructure to expand to other countries shrink rather drastically. The fact that they're not doing so well right now could most certainly hurt them on launch day, if they don't do something to improve their standing.
The inclusion of online multiplayer, the whole community effect, just makes all this that much more dangerous. I remember reading a comment someone had made in the Xbox forums, replying to an individual stating he wouldn't be getting an Xbox One due to their policies. The comment went something to the tune of;
"Well, are you still gonna say that when all your friends have the Xbox One?"
It is a valid point; if the people you want to play with, be they close friends or long-term gaming buddies abroad, decide as a majority to get a particular console, then you might get the same just to play with them. This is especially so if you don't have any 'special loyalty' to either side and just want the best console for your lifestyle. If the gamers I knew in my town went for Xbox Ones, I likely would have done the same, if only because I like the idea of co-oping in Division with them.
Here's the thing. My friends, at least the six I've asked, are all aiming for PS4s, some specifically because of all the hullabaloo, and some because of the price. Out of the gamers I personally know, and believe me, E3 was the subject of much musing, most are either getting a PS4, sticking to PC gaming, or going to 'Wait And See' for a number of months before buying anything.
Which impacts the bottom line; if too many people are sitting around, waiting for things to get better on the Xbox One service, then it's not going to get better.
The real danger in losing former Xbox fans to Sony isn't just the current people who are leaving your service, (to respond to those 'Oh, the business model expects some loss of people!' explanations) but the future fans who will be discouraged from signing on because of negative feedback from their veteran friends and family, to say nothing for the online **bleep**storm, or simply because everyone else they know and would like to game with is getting it as well. The more they upsell 'Play online with your friends!' the more these friends are going to group up and stick with a single console... and Microsoft isn't doing much to improve the odds that they'll be said console right now.
They are the more expensive alternative, and many families looking to get that first console for the young'un could well go with the cheaper version.
Their game-sharing system and cloud computing is going to gobble up bandwidth, making it unappealing to those who don't have unlimited data plans. (And yes, guys, there are people in the universe who don't.)
Entire countries, such as Greece, Portugal and Poland (the last of which is the home of the game company developing the Witcher 3 for God's sake) will be flat-out locked-out of playing the console at all for an unspecified period, and I can't imagine many of their residents will sit back and twiddle their thumbs waiting for Microsoft to be a dear and get some coverage over their way.
Let me be clear to the console's supporters. I am not trying to argue the policies in place, the hardware comparisons, etc, etc, the topics of numerous other threads here. I'm not saying 'PS4 Is Way Better Than Xbone! TAKE DAT!' What I am saying is 'If Loads More People Buy PS4 Than Xbox One, That Will Give Them An Advantage In The Years To Come. If, God Forbid, The Xbox One's Sales Do Not Meet Expectations, Things Could Go Very Badly For All The Shiny Promises They're Making.' Microsoft reserves the right to change its policies; if it saves them money that they feel needs saving, you can bet they'll use that right.
Let me also be clear to the console's critics. I am not stating 'Band Together And Get An Xbox One Despite The Fact That You Don't Want It!" If Microsoft's sales falter, then it's entirely their fault, just as it is the fault of any business that somehow manages to screw up having a dedicated consumer base by insisting that 'We Know Best, You Play Our Way.' They've taken a global market filled with people who would have bought the next Xbox console, and deliberately whittled it down to a small portion of its overall scope, (consoles locking in unapproved countries just going beyond lunacy, as they deny themselves even the money of the hyper-determined gamers who would have it imported from elsewhere,) and then whittled it down again by making the console preferable, sometimes even viable, for people with reliable, fast and ideally cap-less Internet access once a day.
They've taken a global market, and deliberately whittled it down to a small portion of its overall scope, (consoles locking in unapproved countries just going beyond lunacy, as they deny themselves even the hyper-determined gamers who would have it imported from elsewhere,) and then whittled it down again by making the console preferable, sometimes even viable, for people with reliable, fast and ideally cap-less Internet access.
Finally, of that remaining group, they've actually managed to alienate a portion of them on principle alone, in no small part due to their arrogant presentation. The exact number of people, mind you, varies, (seriously, we should have implemented a count here, guys,) but it honestly wouldn't take a majority of Xbox's former audience, or even an incredible large chunk, to damage the console in the long run. X1's going to need every dollar it can get if it's going to do half of what it claims.
While lackluster sales wouldn't cripple the growth of the Xbox One and her developing services, but it might slow down their arrival, and scope, considerably. This glorious future of Xbox One's wonderful cloud nirvana will never grow past what's already established if some Microsoft exec decides; 'Yeah, not enough of an install base, too risky, let's just reduce our investment and keep the minimum number of servers running.'
And they would, if it came down to it. Like Sony, they're a business, and are here to make money. They are not your friend, they are not going to valiantly throw their company on the line to give you what you've been promised. If the costs look to outweigh the benefits, they will cut those costs as soon as possible and never look back. They've already proven they don't seem to mind pissing people off, and unlike Sony, seem to have decided to adopt a model wherein the customer serves them, as opposed to the other way around.
The bright side is, in an effort to regain face and draw in more people, they might actually implement an across-the-board game discount on digital downloads... which might at least draw in some of us in long enough to gobble up all their exclusives.But anyone who doesn't rely heavily on a solid Internet connection, and has a cap on downloaded content, is still going to be left out in the cold. And, suffice to say, such a cut in their income will only serve to further dwindle the cash they have to invest on the console's future. Still, if things go particularly badly, they might even remove the 24 hour requirement, assuming they're capable via software update.
This is why they need to meet these problems head-on, here and now. So many people who are thinking of moving to PS4, or already have made the preorder, have said they are waiting for some sign from Microsoft, some assurance that there is a reason these people can get behind to return to it. The longer the company waits to give that word, if it's even coming, the less likely the consumers it's lost are going to come back at all. And if Microsoft is just sitting around figuring that Sony is going to make a mistake sooner or later that will restore the balance, that says something about their approach to this entire project; 'Wait for the problem to go away.'
Let's face it. As much as the 'They'll Come Flocking To Us When They See How Successful The Xbox One Is' idea sounds nice, the odds of being successful in the first place can only go up if more people are on board in the first place. So why is it so many of Microsoft's decisions seem geared to getting as narrow an install base as humanly possible?
So! Discuss!