2015-10-12

We often use "blue type" selections at clubgowi when pre match odds do not offer exactly what we are looking for. There is no point in betting if the quotes available are below our desired price and offer little or no value, in those cases and that goes double in international matches when there are fewer early goals, we can sit back and wait for the markets to move in our favour and often, we do not have to wait too long. Yesterday was a prime example, I wanted to bet Albania, but odds had dropped in build up and in the morning of the game were quoted at circa 2.07, I wrote .......

Euro 2016 Qualification:Armenia- Albania

Albania arrive here on the back of consecutive home defeats to Portugal and Serbia, the latter in midweek where they played in a very toxic atmosphere with snipers on rooftops around the stadium , they failed to score in either and conceded three times across the two matches after the 90th minute. They played for a draw in both, today that will not do, three points and only three points are required to ensure they qualify for a major championship for the first time in their history and that will surely concentrate minds and is a massive incentive. As a fall back, they do have a guaranteed third place and spot in the playoffs, which might calm nerves slightly, but they will be an underdog over those two legs regardless of whom they face and today is their golden opportunity. They are missing a couple of players, but cannot use that as an excuse and they are probably happy to be playing this on the road, where they have looked more comfortable and have already claimed a point in Denmark and famous win in Portugal in group games, they also posted a draw in Rennes and home win over the French in recent friendly starts and can clearly raise their game against the stronger european teams and today have to do it versus one of the lesser lights. Armenia have nothing but pride to play for and are naturally offensive minded, something we have discussed many times previously and both of which should help the Albanian cause today.

Ahead of Armenia's home game with Denmark last month I wrote .....Hosts have been a favourite of ours for many years, landing some very big odds bets and going close to qualifying for both Euro 2012 and 2014 World Cup, they were also paired with Denmark in the latter and recorded a famous 4-0 win in Copenhagen, but lost the return here in Yerevan, a result which if reversed, would have seen them finish second in a tough group. That defeat kind of ended the brief golden period of Armenian international football and they have struggled over the last two years and are way out of contention this time round, with just a single point from six qualification games. They lost 2-0 to Serbia, the other team with nothing to play for on Friday and have now suffered defeat in nine of their last ten starts, in their last 11 they have not kept a clean sheet, have conceded two or more on nine occasions and three in five, including at home to Portugal and France, away to Germany and against the might of the UAE and Algeria, notes from the match with the Germans which took place last summer are reproduced below, they lost that 6-1. Defensively they are obviously struggling and the goals and talent of Yura Movsisyan and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are no longer enough to keep them in games and the next generation has not yet developed, although they do have a couple of very promising youngsters. We might see am improved showing from them today in front of their own supporters, they midfield is strong (going forward), but the defence is a shambles, they could have conceded six to Serbia ( who hit the woodwork twice) and were unable to defend a single cross into the box. In the Germany notes we spoke about a vulnerability from set pieces/corners and not only does this appear not to have been addressed, but to have got worse.

They did keep a clean sheet finally in that game, but that was a fairly open encounter and I doubt that the hosts have suddenly found the solution to their defensive woes and I have to feel that the greatly more motivated visitors can find a way to edge this. Conspiracy theorists will like the fact that Albania have been backed for this match, after drifting in betting for the Serbia game, but that means odds are now shorter than I would ideally like. However, I suspect we might be able to do better "in running" and I would like to take 1.5 units Albania -0.5 ball if the quote reached 2.25, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.

Armenia have conceded 11 goals in qualification, but none inside the 23rd minute and nine have come after the 54th. They are the home side and will not want to lie down too easily and there is a good chance that the higher quote will be available early in the game.

Within a minute of kick off , Albania were already trading at 2.23 + and desired quotes were reached way before they scored the first of three unanswered goals. Of course , that was almost the perfect scenario and Albania could have scored before our tageted price was met and you could argue that we would have "missed out", but the truth is that we wouldn't , as we DO NOT WANT TO BET AT UNDER THE ODDS ! Also, no one ever lost money by waiting for a better price !

This is another example of the long term profitability we spoke about in "The investment is in the long term profitability" post directly below this one .

We previewed another match today in similar fashion..............

Lithuania- England

Ahead of England's 2-0 defeat of Estonia on Friday I wrote .......

England have dominated this group and are a perfect 8 from 8 so far, scoring 26 goals, at least two in each of seven, only coming up short in the reverse fixture between these two in Tallinn, when they had to wait a long time to score the winning goal. That is par for the course for England in this group stage, with just three of those 26 goals coming inside the first 30 minutes, with nine in the middle third of the game and 14 in the final half hour. Under Roy hodgson they have looked to play themselves into games before really pushing on, big gulf in class of course and whilst England have already qualified, they will get crucified in the media if they do not beat "little old" Estonia and I am sure that they would like to finish with a 10/10 record.  The match is not a sell out, but a crowd of 75,000 is expected and will be demanding of a result, offensively the visitors do not offer much and they have not scored on the road in a group game and only twice in nine competitive away starts.However, they are tight at the back (just six goals conceded in qualification) and will come very much with damage limitation in mind and looking to keep England at bay for as long as possible. Home win of course and they should be up to definitely a second and probably a third goal, but let's wait and hold out for a better quote, if England score before that , no damage done ! Pitch might also be a bit of a leveller, as there have been rugby and NFL games played on the hallowed turf in recent weeks, but in the end it should not matter too much.

England won 2-0 scoring in the 45th and 85th minute(s), that is what we have come to expect from them and we seem likely to see more of the same today They have the opportunity to be the team to finish with a perfect qualifying record and whist they are going to rotate the squad today, that will still be a motivation and it will be a rare opportunity for some of the fringe players (Butland. Alli, Shelvey, Townsend, Vardy ) to impress in a "competitive" fixture. Lithuania have nothing but pride to play for, but a game against England is usually a big deal and we can expect them to be up for this and that goes double early in the game.

Here in Vilnius, the hosts have conceded just five goals in qualification, all of which have come after the 34th minute and we can hold out and hope that we get our desired quote of 1.5 units England -1 ball 1.95 asian line/Sportmarket, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.

Good Luck.

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Country:

Albania

England

Lithuania

Sport:

Football

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