I posted two previews on the website yesterday, the J-League game turned a profit and covered the "loss" on the Ligue 2 match , it is the latter I wish to discuss. I have spoken several times on here about the "bigger picture" and in terms of that, I am talking about the clubgowi newsletter . On the website, as free to view content, you are only going to get to see about 6% at best of the clubgowi overall output. In the past, I have likened it to seeing 5-6 minutes of the middle of a movie, you have no idea what happened at the start, or how it will finish, it might be interesting as far as it goes, but you are left with more questions than answers and will be unfulfilled. Free to view content is the "trailer", the newsletter is the full movie.
Yesterday in the first Friday newsletter, Le Havre were the only loser, the other five selections provided four winners at odds of up to 3.75 and a "push", you can view the full newsletter below. Short term results do not matter overly, I an only writing this post to illustrate a point and to show you what you are not seeing on a day to day basis.
If anyone is seriously interested in subscribing to the newsletter service, email me on gowi8@btinternet.com before midnight UK time on Sunday and I will make you a "fun" offer.
Friday October 28th
There is a follow up newsletter today @ 16.00 with notes for tomorrow's J-League games.
Championship: QPR- Brentford
West London derby and for Brentford fans of my (too old) generation, this is the biggie ! For the second season running the Bees have come into this fixture "slumping" and have not scored in three of their last four and lost the other, albeit to a Newcastle United team who look on a different level to the rest of the Championship. If the (still) mighty Bees play like they did in a 2-0 home loss to Barnsley last Saturday, they will lose this too and it will not be pretty. However, they have largely played well this season, had not lost at home since last March, so, one was overdue and have tended to show good bouncebackability, being unbeaten in five after a Saturday defeat. not conceding next time out in the two road starts in that sequence and I do expect a "reaction" . Players are certainly aware how much this means and a couple were given a very hard time during and after the defeat Loftus Road last season.The visitors have stern competition for starting places and that has increased with the return to training this week of Lasse Vibe and he might make the squad today.
I opposed Rangers in their last home game (Reading) ahead of which my notes included ..............
I previewed Rangers recent home start with Birmingham, when my notes spoke about the mood at the club ..........Rangers are struggling, losing 6-0 at home to Newcastle United was shameful, it could have been 2-3 more, the natives are not happy and many have turned against JFH, with the head coach usually being referred to as "that clown" in most supporters forum posts. Losing in the cup at home in midweek, when they led with 20 minutes left to play didn't help much and the crowd will definitely "turn" today if things start poorly and that helps no one, is very hard to handle and players can almost end up waiting for the abuse to start and believe me, not much cannot be heard at Loftus Road, where supporters are very close to the pitch.
They drew with City and have taken four points from two road games since, winning at neighbours Fulham before the break, but it is here , back at Loftus Road, I want to oppose them. Head coach Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink was named in the Daily Telegraph football corruption allegations, QPR have backed him after completing their "own investigation", probably conducted by the same people who feel they should ingnore FFP rules and any subsequent fines that come their way!
Anyway, I feel Reading are the stronger team and do not have quite the baggage that Rangers carry at present, hosts are without former Brentford capatain Jake Bidwell, who took the walk over to the dark side ( moving from Bees to QPR is a no no !) and Jake Robinson, which means no left back and they will play with a central defender on the right and a right back, who has not played for five weeks on the left !
They drew that 1-1 with the Royals having the better of the game, played ok in a 1-0 win over Bristol City and lost by the same scoreline at Sheffield Wednesday. Rangers are not scoring many ( 9 in 11 and only once more than one, once since August) and, playing a very high press, which is a major shift in tactics and at times, are doing so with three defensive looking midfielders and no natural width, basically giving up the central midfield. I feel they need a lot to go their way to win games and have little by way of plan B when they concede first. They are playing like the away team at home, pressing high, two holding players and very cautious, scoring five in seven starts at Loftus Road. If the real Bees turn up, this is there for the winning.
Team news is important, or rather team selection is and I doubt odds will change much on this game, so waiting to see the line ups is definitely worthwhile ( the match is live on Sky). If Sam Saunders, who I love dearly , is in the starting eleven I do not want to bet Brentford and he should never play again in a Championship side, it was a big error to play him last week, he was removed at the break and I do not expect that mistake to ever be repeated unless half the squad is sick or injured ! Personally, I would prefer Barbet over Bjelland at left back and for now, Harlee Dean back in the centre of defence and if the backline was Colin- Dean-Egan -Barbet, I would even bet this a little stronger ..........
1.25 units Brentford -0.25 ball 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
Ligue 2:
Reims- Le Havre
Home wins are running at just 36% in Ligue 2, which makes Reims perfect 5-0-0 record here all the more impressive, but they have played teams with an average league placing of 14.4 and will surely be asked more questions today by a Le Havre team who have refound their form and already won 5-2 here in Reims in the Coupe de la Ligue. I have spoken at times about the visitors being so much better when they open up and play an attacking style and that the loss of head coach Bob Bradley might turn out to be a blessing in disguise in that aspect . I have highlighted a couple of key passages from last week's 2-0 win over Ajaccio, their fourth victory in a row ..............
Last Friday I previewed the Clermont- Le Havre game , speaking about Bob Bradley's move to the EPL and how new HAC coach Oswald Tanchot had quickly imposed himself and that maybe, just maybe he had removed the shackles imposed by Bradley, who was a little too defensive minded at times ........
I have spoken many times about Clermont and the very open nature of their games , we can take that as a given, for today , I want to focus on Le Havre, I was very pleased with my preview of their last away game, a trip to Auxerre ...............
We have largely left Le Havre alone this season, apart from taking a few "overs" which have worked out well. I spent much of last season bigging them up and they finished well, but not well enough, missing promotion not just on goal difference, but by goals scored ! They were made favourites this season, started well, but have nosedived recently, failing to win in seven league and cup games. Ahead of their first defeat of the season, at home to Troyes, I spoke about their solid start, last season, their offensive abilities, but did give a warning about them defensively ...........
HAC came up a goal short of promotion last season and that, allied to just two automatic promotion spots, should ensure they will always be looking for maximum points. Nimes are without suspended left back (but has now been converted to left sided central defender) Fethi Harek, the 11 games he has missed in the last 12 months have averaged 2.91 goals. His absence will have got the attention of Le Havre new signing Algerian winger Zinedine Ferhat, who could go down the same route as HAC's last "name" Algerian signing Rihad Mahrez, Ferhat has every trick in the book and then some and there will be plenty of entertainment in watching him this season.
They have finally made the solid start to the season they have been waiting several campiagns for and it really is all about top two for them and in addition to their seven points, they also scored five goals inside 17 minutes (!) away to Reims, who were playing top flight football three months ago, in the cup and that highlights their goalscoring potential when they cut loose.They let a lead slip in a draw at Gazelec last week and I cannot believe that they will be looking for anything other than all three points, but they did concede three in two games (league and cup) last week and we "know" that Troyes ( see opening day notes above) just do not have it in them to come here with a negative mindset .
HAC must be terribly disappointed with the way things have played out since, especially after such a promising start, the pressure has to be mounting on head coach Bob Bradley and this feels like draw a line in the sand time. They need to turn things around before the international break and this and the home game with Sochaux next week, might well be the two most important games they will play before Christmas, they are "only" six points off the top of the table, but cannot afford to let that grow, with this season all about top 2 for them.
I have been waiting for a "performance" and we saw one in the 1-1 draw with (then) leaders Brest on Tuesday, when HAC looked much the better side, really took the game to the visitors should have been two up, before falling behind, but did not let heads drop, equalised, felt they had an attempt which "crossed the goal line", but was not given and battled until the end, being denied a winner by three unbelievable saves and they spoke afterwards of getting great confidence from the 90 minutes. Duhamel and Gimbert are still scoring goals and are as potent as any pairing at this level, several of the senior players spoke honestly this week about the bad run, but that they all still "believed" and I saw plenty to like in midweek and think they remain one of the better Ligue 2 teams. Defensive midfielder Jean-Pascal Fontaine returns after missing two games today, Le Havre are unbeaten in five on the road when he starts, conceding just three goals, that sequence includes a 3-1 win here at the end of last season and they have allowed just four goals in eight road outings when Fontaine plays and he gives them a far more solid look. Hosts have failed to score in their last five league starts and look the perfect opposition for Le Havre at this time.
They won that 1-0 and followed up by beating highflying Sochaux 2-1 before the break, that was noteworthy as head coach Bob Bradley had left on the day of the game to join Premier League Swansea City. Oswald Tanchot his number 2 took over and has already made some big decisions regarding his coaching staff and that is a good sign, as he is confident enough to do that and wants to make the job his own.This is a good squad and the move will doubtless be good for Bradley's bank balance, but might also be better for HAC, as they are a team happier unshackled IMO and allowed to play to their strengths and that was definitely not always the case under their US boss.
However and there is almost always an however, he and HAC have to travel without Issam Chebake, Steven Fortes , Ghislain Gimbert and Cédric Cambon, their offensive threat remains without Gimbert, but they are without three important defenders and the backline will include at least two inexperienced players and will be probably the youngest in action in Ligue 2 today (average age 21, oldest 23). Clermont love a 2-1/1-2 (five in their last ten starts) and they have won 3 of the last 6 h2h meetings here by that exact scoreline, both to score, one to notch a winner.
Le Havre won 3-1 and I liked Tanchot's contribution from the sidelines where he was very vocal and animated, the antithesis of Bradley. The game was wide open, Clermont played well going forward and could/should have been 2-1/3-1 up at the half , instead of 1-0 down. That paid for that, it was mostly Le Havre after the break,with the Clermont goal a late consolation. Three things to pick up on, the Clermont offensive threat remains, but defensively they are a shambles, two of the goals conceded were horror shows and they were incredibly slow to the "second ball" in their own area and lastly, the performance of HAC keeper Fabien Farnolle who was a commanding and decisive presence and simply refused to be beaten until the game was won. I have spoken about him before and when he is pumped and on fire, the whole team is lifted, ahead of an early season game last year I wrote ................
HAC almost paid for that when Valenciennes were awarded a dubious looking penalty, but this was saved by giant keeper Fabien Farnolle and justice was done. It was a game of very few real chances, but I have to admit to being rather impressed with HAC, I saw video of them in warm up and they were really going for it, much more than you normally see ( I always try to get into Griffin Park early to see how the opposition prepare, it is incredible btw how many teams come out for the second half and do no last minute warm up at all, the Bees always do at least 90 seconds or so, but I digress) , keeper Farnolle must have saved 100 shots and was drenched in sweat going back to the changing rooms, they came out fired up, looked sharp and got that early breakthrough goal. Every key moment was celebrated as a group, which I always like , they were really pumped by the win and there were extended and jubilant celebrations after the game shown on the club website. You can learn quite a bit from titbits like these and this is clearly a very together group of players, you cannot fake joy and comradeship and we know they have ability.
Anyway, a huge win for Le Havre which took them up to fourth , they have back to back road games after today and will surely be hunting down the three points today and get Issam Chebake, Steven Fortes and Ghislain Gimbert (see above) back today, with greatly increased options and a chance to freshen up with regular starters. I expect them to win with a degree of comfort.
Farnolle made a big save at 0-0 and doesn't look like getting beaten at present. HAC could have scored 4-5, looked very dangerous on the break (at 0-1 Ajaccio had to gamble) and have huge pace on the counter and are ideally set up to play on the road. Reims are without suspended central defender Julian Jeanvier and that is a big loss, he has played every minute of every game (all competitions) this season and has also scored three goals, including two of just three they have scored against top six teams (no wins) in the league. This will mean quite a reshuffle in a back three/four in which he and Weber have been ever present.
1.5 units Le Havre +0.25 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket.
Reims : Carrasso, E. Mendy - Bouhours, Conte, H. Traoré, Turan, Weber - Berthier, Da Cruz, Kankava, Ndom, Rigonato, Rodriguez - I. Baldé, Charbonnier, Chavarria, Kyei.
Le Havre: Farnolle, Thuram - Mendy, Camara, Fortes, Bain, Chebake, Bese - Ayasse, Fontaine, Ferhat, Lekhal, Bonnet - Duhamel, Gimbert, Julan.
Orleans - Troyes
Teams often struggle in Ligue 2 after dropping down from the top tier and we spoke about this in regard to Troyes in early season and that they were in transition, but we also picked up on their improvement quickly and have followed their blossoming .............
Troyes were playing Ligue 1 football last season and whilst they were not doing it very well, they do have a touch of quality and at least now look to have made the always key early adjustment to life back down at the lower level, which so many teams have struggled with in recent campiagns.
I spoke about this ahead of their opener ...........Troyes were a joy to watch in Ligue 2 with their offensive approach and had promotion pretty much sealed by the end of January in the 2014-15 season and won the title by a whopping 13 points, posting 24 wins. They obviously went into their Ligue 1 campaign with plenty of confidence, but that did not last long and they did not win until late January and only three times all season, losing 26 of 38 starts, conceding an unheard of 83 goals ( 2.18 per game), which I believe was nine more than any other team in modern history (only three have conceded more than 70 since 1999-2000). That might take some time to recover from and many teams have taken a losing Ligue 1 camapign and continued in similar fashion in the second tier and really struggled again at the lower level, you might argue that Troyes have recent knowledge of Ligue 2, but the same was true of Lens last season and they took eight games to win and six to score three goals. Like Lens last year and we discussed this in depth at the time, they really look a team in transition and one to avoid until we are relatively certain that they have made it.
They lost that to Sochaux 3-1 , then at Ajaccio and in the Coupe de la Ligue, but in their fourth start, I felt it started to come together and ahead of a trip to promotion favourites Le Havre I wrote .............we "know" that Troyes ( see opening day notes above) just do not have it in them to come here with a negative mindset and they played well in a 1-0 win over Laval last week. They scored early and with no exaggeration should have been 3 or 4 up at half time , but were left frustrated by some poor finishing, good goalkeeping and last ditch challenges. Typically for a team low on confidence and who have lost the winning habit they dropped further and further back in the second half and put themselves under pressure, but there was a performance and not just three points to take from that and they can play their part in an open encounter. Last three h2h meetings have produced at least three goals, at an average of 4.0 per games.
They won that 3-1 and followed up with a 1-1 draw with Lens before the international break, they were very lethargic there in the first half (it was very hot) and trailed at HT, but came on strong in the second period and made good tactical adjustments, upped the tempo and got their just reward.
Troyes are still in "transition" to a degree, but are improving, the spirit has returned, which I feel has been the most important development and they do retain a touch of class, there is a good chance that one goal might be enough to take at least a share of the points and having scored in all five league starts and three times at HAC, they certainly look up to that. You can see the confidence returning to senior players, most notably Raphael Caceres, Stephane Dubion and even evergreen 39 yo Benjamin Nivet, who is still capable of scoring and providing a lot of goals at this level.
Troyes are on a long unbeaten run, have won their last four, not conceded in 323 minutes and are up to fourth and would move to within a point of leaders Brest (who do not play until Monday) with the win this evening. They won six more games than anyone else in their 2014-15 promotion season, including a whopping ten on the road and whilst not as free scoring at present, look stronger defensively and equally as ruthless and efficient. Orleans are already bottom two and are set for a season long battle against relegation, they are capable of the odd performance, witness the 3-1 home win over Strasbourg, but they have only managed a further three goals in their other five home starts and if these two play to their "usual" potential, Troyes should come away will all three points. Visitors have named an unchanged squad .
1.5 units Troyes level ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Orléans : Sissoko, Renault - Seidou, Chemin, Sami, Belkalem, Yahia, Pinaud - Ligoule, Aholou, Barreto, Ziani, Houla, Delclos, Beziouen, Nabab - Ayari, Armand.
Troyes : Samassa, Zelazny - Confais, Cordoval, Giraudon, Hérelle, Traoré - Azamoum, Ben Saada, Darbion, Dingomé, Goteni, Nivet - Cacérès, Grandsir, Niane.
Valenciennes- Olympique Nimes
Nimes seem cursed at home this season, last week, ahead of a draw with Sochaux I wrote .........
Nimes have served us very well on the road this season and after a poor start, to what looked a hugely promising campaign, have hauled themselves up to 10th place and are "only" five points adrift of third and traditionally come on strong through the middle third of the season in any case.However, they need to address their home form and quickly, having not won here (0-3-2) collecting 11 of 14 points on the road. They are far better here in Nimes than that suggests and they were 7-2-1 at home after Christmas last season and maybe we just have a case of variance kicking in and evening out across the 15 games (7-5-3). Certainly time for a win and Sochaux who are amongst the promotion favourites, would be a good team to start against and would certain provide confidence for upcoming home starts. Bonus for the hosts is that Sochaux played on Monday, so are dealing with that always difficult quick turnaround, which tends to prove so problematic in Ligue 2. Nimes offensive threat is sky high with Kouakou and Alioui (see below), despite not seeing it yet at home, Sochaux are very different and have not scored more than a single goal in six starts, give me the team with goals in them every time !
In early season I spoke about their potential .............
I wrote a lengthy preview of Nimes' trip to then leaders Nancy, who went on to win Ligue 2 by four points, back in late January, in that I spoke about Nimes great goalscoring form and how they had made a habit of running into form through the second half of recent campaigns, you can read those notes on this link to the clubgowi website . They collected 34 points from 18 starts from the end of November, which is more or less top 3 shape for half a season , add in their 8 point deduction and they would have finished 9th and given all that the players had to deal with in early season ( confidence was shot from how the previous campaign ended and they took until October 23rd to get to +1 point !), that was a fantastic achievement. They got great support through this improved run, fans bought into the great escape/ them against us attitude and five figure crowds (big numbers for them and L2) were turning up and really getting behind the team. What could have been a disaster, actually turned into a campaign full of promise and hope for the future.
Head coach Bernard Blaquart has been busy over the summer and looks to have upgraded the backline and the addition of two experienced full backs in Gael Angoula and Zie Diabate looks good business. Up front, the signing of Rachid Alioui is promising, he was top scorer for Laval last season, which. additionally weakens the visitors, the striker hit the ground running this time last year, with five goals and two assists in the first 11 games and he was playing for a team who do not score many (just 12 in total through that sequence).
They have played their best football on the road, posting a 3-2-1 record and scoring a Ligue 2 high 12 goals and for some reason, just seem happier away from Nimes, where they play with far greater freedom.
Valenciennes were shocking in a 4-1 loss to Tours last week and despite winning two, they have conceded nine goals in their last four starts, games which averaged 4.5 goals pg. Nimes are not coming to defend and I take them to win an open encounter, the last two h2h meetings here have both produced four goals.
1.5 units Nimes level ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit "over" 3.5 goals 3.50-3.75 general quote.
Valenciennes : Merville, Perquis - Aloé, Ciss, Nery, Nestor, Niakhaté - Diarra, Enza-Yamissi, Fulgini, Kaboré, Roudet, Tameze - Butin, Da Costa, Faustin.
Nimes : Gallon, Marillat - Angoula, Briançon, Harek, Diabaté, Paquiez - Fabre, Savanier, Cissokho, Aït Fana, Valls - Ripart, Alioui, Kouakou, Sissoko
CD Leganes- Real Sociedad
We discussed the home side briefly on opening day and sided with them at big odds for their trip to Celta Vigo ............
The other La Liga game which features Celta Vigo and newly promoted CD Leganes is definitely worth a look, tiny Leganes are in their first ever season in La Liga and are enjoying themselves with a "scratch and sniff" team shirt and free cucumbers for visitors ! Their nickname is the cucumber growers by the way ! My main interest features the loss of Nolito for Celta, he had 12 goals and seven assists in 29 appearances last season, but his influence went far beyond that, when he played, Celta collected an additional 1.05 points per game, conceded 0.88 goals less and when he was sidelined, their loss rate went up by 46% (losing 6/9). He really hit the ground running early and was incredibly prolific in early season with five goals and three assists in his first five starts including wins over Barcelona and Sevilla and his performance in the former, probably caught the eye of fomer Barce boss Pep Guardiola and earned the left winger his move to Manchester City. They did bring in Pione Sisto from FC Midtjylland and he can play on either flank, but is really a right winger and has to adapt to the Spanish game, Claudio Beauvue would have been an option, but he is injured and I do think that Celta might struggle early to deal with such a big loss. This would be great if they were playing in the tiny Leganes Butarque stadium on the outskirts of Madrid and it will be a huge ask to win here in Vigo, but the hosts look too short and Segunda champions Alaves showed the way yesterday with a fine 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid on the road. They finished only one point ahead of Leganes.
They won that, but have yet to win on home soild and have conceded ten in their last three home starts, losses to Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla, which is a tough sequence, but doesn't get significantly easier today. They also shipped four at Malaga last Sunday and defensively they are clearly struggling. Real have only won once on the road, this camapign, but last season no one outside the top six won as many away starts and they will welcome the slightly less competitive nature of this with their last three away outings being a trip to Villarreal and two Basque derbies . They have home games with Atletico and Barcelona up shortly and really need to take some points from this and a trip to Sporting Gijon, otherwise a solid start to this season, could quickly turn into a poor one. They have a big threat aerially and from set pieces, both goals in a 3-2 loss to Athletic in their last away game from from those and all three in a 3-0 win over Alaves last week from crosses and Leganes have shown a weakness in defending both.
1.5 units Real Sociedad level ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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