I highlighted a line in the previous preview which I would like to touch upon briefly, Ligue 2 draws are running at 38.18% through 11 rounds, which equates to odds of 2.62, it was a similar story last season 37% after 10 rounds, but down to sub 32% by Christmas, a figure it stayed at through the rest of the campaign, this is a standard trend in this tightest of leagues with matches opening up quite a bit through the second series of ten games and we can expect that to be the case over the next couple of months and as a result, the number of goals, which are already some 0.31 per game down on last season, to increase.
Chateauroux- Tours
Two struggling teams usually means goals and even at this stage of the season these two are in trouble, the Tours problems were outlined last week and are reproduced below and following the home defeat to Nimes, coach Olivier Pantaloni (pictured) resigned saying "I don't see any solutions with the (substandard) squad we have got" and might well be on his way to Ajaccio.
In order to give the preview some balance we also discussed a recent Chateauroux game against Nimes .....
We have discussed Chateauroux's away day woes many times, most recently ahead of their trip to Ajaccio .....
Chateauroux who earned a late reprieve from relegation last season, followed that defeat with a draw with Orleans, but we already know their strength is at home, on the road, they have won just once in 45 Ligue 2 starts, scoring an average of 0.73 goals per game and conceding 1.71 over that massive sample of matches and something very strange happens to them when they board that team bus.
Chat arrive without suspended central defender Fabien Boyer and midfield starlet Hamza Sakhi, who at only just 18 yo is getting a lot of attention and also missing hugely experience fellow midfielder Sébastian Roudet and holding player Maxime Darrieux to injury, which leaves then VERY short across the middle of the park and this is an excellent opportunity for the hosts to close in on the top three.
They drew that 1-1 and of course, then lost 5-2 at home to Nancy next time out ! They have Boyer and Sakhi back now, but Roudet and Darrieux (see all four above) are still absent and I can see Nimes getting as much joy through midfield as Nancy did on Friday. Striker Terence Makengo is also sidelined, he has scored one of only two away goals Chat have scored this season, earning them that point in Corsica. The hosts have drawn three straight home starts since beating Angers on opening day, but two of those finished 2-2 and it is difficult to see the visitors scoring twice on the road against anyone.
They lost that 1-0 but actually got a road win shortly afterwards, winning 1-0 at Arles, but I guess that can be attributed to a little evening out of variance and, as always seems the way of things, when an away win finally comes, their home form goes out of the window and they have conceded ten goals in their last three home starts. The visitors get left winger Christian Kouakou, about whom I wrote last week "Tours have won just 24% of matches over the last three seasons when he has been absent, including losing six from seven this season" and those numbers are now worse, back today, they will be better with him in the team and come with an adventurous looking line up. They do not do draws in any case, at least not this season and surely both teams will view this as a very good opportunity and that we will see goals.
1.5 goals "over 2.5 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Châteauroux : Bonnefoi, Souchaud - Hountondji, Nestor, Obiang, Bain, Boyer, Bonnart - Dudouit, Plessis, Zola, Roudet, Kamara, Sakhi - Nnoma, Thil.
Tours : Bertrand, Sallès - Bouhours, Cissé, Diawara, Gradit, Schwechlen - Belkebla, Berenguer, Chavalerin, Diaz, Santamaria - Adnane, Bedia, Bergougnoux, Kouakou.
Good Luck.
Tours - Nimes (written 17/10)
We strongly opposed Tours for their trip to Brest just before the international break......
Tours are a team I have struggled to place in the Ligue 2 hierarchy in recent campaigns, these notes are from last season ahead of a trip to Troyes, when I spoke about the cracks in their road form.....
My own personal jury is still out on Tours and I am not quite sure where I place them in the Ligue 2 pecking order, definitely below Troyes and defensively, expecially away from home, they trouble me. Tours have won just once on the road in three months and that came in a very lack lustre display at basement club CA Bastia, where they rode their luck , they have lost their last three on the road to Auxerre, Creteil and Les Herbiers (cup), conceding at least two in each and eight in total. We have a clear and recent formline with Creteil and whilst it is often dangerous to compare form like that, in this instance, I feel it is pertinent.The very heavy defeat at Auxerre was particularly galling as they had all the advantages going into that (easier schedule. returning fresher players, with an opponent missing three key players) and just never showed up. I would love to have seen a reaction and for them to bounce back, but those two follow up road defeats ,especially to a fouth tier club in the cup, was not it and neither was a 2-1 home draw with Le Havre last week, where they needed a late equaliser to salvage a point. They have spoken about looking for all three points tonight and appear to be coming with a very attacking line up (all four strikers are in the squad) and I do think we will see goals, both are happier on the front foot and the three most recent h2h meetings here have gone "over", but I would always favour Troyes to win a shootout, even a mini one and I suspect them to win this. The visitors are without key left back Samuel Bouhours (14-0-0) which is a big loss, they have won just once in ten starts without him over the last two seasons, with just a single cleansheet and Troyes will surely be looking to exploit the increased vunerability on this flank.
Ahead of the re-match at Troyes this season, I updated those and said .....I was "wrong" and Tours won 2-1 , but on another night Troyes would have scored 4-5 goals and they were clearly the better team for my money. Opening goal from the visitors came from 24 goal striker Andy Delort and Benjamin Leroy had a good evening in goal, Delort is on his way to the Championship and Leroy is now plying his trade at Evian. Troyes won the two subsequent meetings in the cup and reverse fixture, scoring five in the process. Delort is obviously a massive loss, Leroy has been virtually ever present for three seasons and their cause is not helped this evening by replacement Esteban Salles being sent off last week and banned this evening. They did win that match, seeing off Creteil 4-2 but were fortunate to score four and could have conceded more and they seem highly unlikely to keep Troyes out for too long this evening.
This is a squad obviously much weaker than last season, having lost their two key players over the summer and whilst they have scored 11 goals this season, ten have come at home and they are 0-0-4 on the road, where, in stark contrast to Brest, they are far too adventurous for their own good. They are probably better than their bottom three position suggests and I suspect we will see them in lower mid table come the end of the season, but they look especially vunerable right now. They arrive without suspended right back Fousseni Diawara and he is a big loss, since signing before the start of last season, he has missed two road games, both against teams in the drop zone (Laval and Istres) and Tours lost both, the only other away start he had limited game time in, was the visit here last season, when he only played 8 minutes, they lost that 2-0 with both goals coming from play down his flank. Two of the five defenders who have travelled are just 18 yo and have yet to play a first team game, this is a very tough venue to make your debut, alternative is someone out of position, or a change in formation (highly unlikely).
They lost that 2-0 and as the saying goes, they were lucky to score nil ! It was a very lacklustre showing and perhaps even my notes above did not reflect the trouble they are in. Their squad is tiny and whilst they get Fousseni Diawara back today, they lose central defender Jonathan Gradit to suspension, he has played every minute of every game since last March, after joining in the transfer window, that's 22 straight league games. Left winger Christian Kouakou is still out, Tours have won just 24% of matches over the last three seasons when he has been absent, including losing six from seven this season.
Nimes, as we have discussed several times this season, play a far more open style than is at first apparent and match up well in key areas with Tours who are too often a bit too adventurous and probably still think they have Delort ( and Kouakou) up front and Leroy in goal (see above) to save them. They have a 20 man squad, seven of whom are aged 20 or younger and are short of experience, confidence is brittle and it is 13 matches since they have taken a point from a game in which they have conceded first.
I discussed Nimes in quite a lot of depth after Christmas, focusing on how much better I felt they were than the league table suggested........
Nimes have been unable to pull away from the drop zone and remain in the bottom three, but have played well since the Christmas break, scoring a lot of goals (12 in five home starts) and losing just twice in ten starts, both by the minimum margin and arguably unluckily. What cannot really be argued is that their haul of 16 points from that sequence, whilst a very decent return (enough for third place if averaged out over the 29 rounds), is less than their overall level of performance deserved .
In January I discussed how 2014 might pan out for them ...
"We have now reached the half way stage in Ligue 2 and several teams will be looking to replicate their strong finishes to last season and we will be looking at one or two of these over the coming weeks, starting with Nimes today. Last season they collected 33 points over the second half of the campaign, only three of those came over the final four games, once their promotion chance had gone, but from January through to the end of April they were as strong as anyone and playing promotion level football. I suspect this will have been drummed into them over the Christmas break and by their new coach and they could hardly have got off to be a better start last week, when we discussed them ahead of their 3-1 win at Laval .... Hard not to see Nimes getting some joy offensively ,they are battling for survival, four points from safety and this is a game they dare not lose. New coach Rene Marsiglia is looking to resurrect his career domestically after returning from the UAE, he knows how to keep a club up, after saving Nice in 2012 and looks a good appointment. He will be buoyed by Vincent Gragnic (10-2-2) being passed fit to join the squad. I take the new coach effect to work and a hard earned point or better for the visitors, who have lost just once in six visits here and kept a cleansheet in 3 of the last 4.
Those three points were not enough to take them out of the drop zone, but three more this evening probably will and then they could start to look upwards. Hosts get Mouritala Ogunbiyi and Romain Sartre back today, two of their more experienced players and look as strong as at any time this season, with that confidence building win behind them and a highly motivated coach looking to re-establish himself, I strongly favour them to beat the poor traveling visitors."
Basically, they are playing far better than the league table suggests and on a level with last season's very strong finish and it should also be noted that they have played the top three in the last six weeks, scored seven goals and gone unbeaten. They have a run of games in the next month, Nancy next week aside, against "fellow" strugglers and a good opportunity for them to finally get a little distance between themselves and the relegation spots.
Ahead of this season I wrote .....They managed to secure their safety with a bit to spare and with Marsiglia (see above) having had the whole summer to switch things around, Gragnic and Bouby (see Auxerre) have left with one or two others and in have come a mixture of experience and youth .Toifilou Maoulida has scored a sackful of goals in the top flight, but even at veteran stage knows where the back of the net is and has scored 13 goals in each of his last two campaigns at this level. Feteh Harek has played 57 games for Bastia in the top flight over the last two seasons and was virtually ever present in their two promotion campaigns. Fabien Barillon was Istres most important defender and wanted by several teams, Argentine Pedro Galván is a dark horse, he has signed from Israeli football, where he scored a mountain of goals from midfield and Larry Azouni is a French U20 international on loan from Marseille. They look to have a few goals in them and I am keen to see Galvan and Maoulida at this level.
They are 2-6-2 this season, coach Marsiglia has moved on over a difference of opinion and has been replaced by José Pasqualetti who did a wonderful job for several years in terribly difficult circumstances at Istres and they remain a team with potential in this division and I am sure that we will do well with them over the coming months. I have to side with them today getting a handicap start.
1.5 units Nimes +0.25 ball 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket.
Tours : Bertrand, Sallès - Bouhours, Cillard, Cisse, Diawara, Schwechlen - Berenguer, Chavalerin, Diaz, Raveloson, Santamaria - Adnane, Bedia, Bergougnoux, Massoni.
Nîmes : Michel, Gallon, Cordoval, Harek, Barrillon, Elie, Marin, Briançon, Lacourt, Robail, Bobichon, Hsissane, Maoulida, Koura, Tchoutou, Mendy.
Subscribing to clubgowi need not break the bank. Our paid service provides in-depth analysis on over 100 sporting events each month, all for as little as 2.73 euros per day. In 2013 there were 1,317 selections, stakes were 1,707 units, producing a profit of 260.5 units, at a ROI of +15.26%. Find out more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
France
Sport:
Football
Competition:
French Ligue 2
Football Teams:
Nimes
Tours
Chateauroux