You can read today's subscriber newsletter below in "full", it is not a standard email as it doesn't feature any football matches, but you can see from the schedule for this coming weekend , that there will be plenty of those over the next three days and five newsletters. You can see an example of a more standard /recent newsletter on this page.
Thursday March 5th
I want to put up something early on the golf this week and look at our long term positions in the Championship, but will start with the schedule for the rest of this week....
Friday 06/03
Email #1 will be sent @ 10.00 UK time with main focus on Ligue 2.
Email #2 at 16.00 including notes for the Saturday "morning" J-League games.
Saturday 07/03
Email #1 @10.00 with Premier and Football League previews.
Email #2 @13.00 with "evening and overnight" football, including a look at the new MLS season.
Sunday 08/03
Email will be sent @ 11.00 looking at the final round of the WGC event and the Sunday football action.
Please note the single newsletter and later sending time on Sunday and also that it will be a very low key start, as usual, to the Japanese and MLS season's, we will get more involved after week 2 or 3.
WGC: Cadillac Championship: Bubba Watson
We are on Bubba Watson for the US Money List and as explained when analysing this and the Race to Dubai market in Europe, to do well in the season long markets, you really need to make the most of these big money events, my notes from early December read ......
This is a season long bet and will not be decided until late September.
Last year we were firmly with Rory McIlroy to win the Race to Dubai, which is the European version of this market and the criteria required in looking for the winner, is largely similar, you have to do well in the big events and will need to win at least two biggies or go close in them and pick up a couple of other events along the way.
Rory also won the US Money List last year with earnings of a shade over $8m (nice work if you can get it !), he also earned $8m in 2012 when he was a four time winner. He is fully capable of doing so again, but in his three other "full" years on Tour he averaged only just over $2m and there are no guarantees that he will be as dominant as last year, he has had issues in the past and whilst signs were good for him going into last season, the ongoing court case with his former management company and break up from Caroline Wozniacki could have affected him, they didn't, but they could have and like many young men, especially those with huge wads of cash, trouble can find Rory and he doesn't have to always go looking for it ! Things happen ! He needs a lot to go right to earn that $8m again.
I also have two concerns, one is the Masters, it is the only major he has not won, it is the most suited to his game and the single title he craves, Augusta will be the real focus for him this year and failure to win, could throw him a little off kilter, as could the court case with Horizon, which is scheduled for February.
He has limitless ability and could easily have another fantastic year, but is one as good as last year likely, given all the baggage, media attention and what lies ahead ? I tend to think not.
I am keen on the chances of Bubba Watson, since his breakthrough year of 2010, he is a seven time winner, including two Masters titles and this is why I like him....he earned circa $3.2m in 2010, $3.47m in 2011, $4.64m in 2012 and $6.3 last year, up each time, the eagle eyed amongst you will have spotted the blip, that was in 2013 when he "only" banked $1.75m and had a poor season by his own high standards, so much was expected of him as a new major winner and it clearly hindered his game.
That was a concern for me this year (2015) with that second Masters won in 2014, but he is a different guy now, more mature, although we do not always see that on course and he has already won , taking the WGC event in Shanghai (which counts as a 2015 event !) and banking $1.4m, so he is effectively one win up on the pack, or at least anyone who matters, but for me it is worth more than the money. It means we are safe to assume that we will not see a repeat of 2013 and we are talking about someone who would "expect" to bank somewhere between $4.6 and $6.4m additionally, which would take him to between $6-$8m, so, even if Rory had a repeat, this is the one golfer who could perhaps still trouble him and remember, he might not need that much and somewhere in the middle ($7m), might well get the job done. However, I can see plenty of scenarios where Bubba could improve, he was second or third four times in addition to his two wins last year and earned nothing at all in the other three majors and underperformed, or missed a couple of events he had done well in previously, having to withdraw from one. He seems sure to play at least 21 events, as he has done in four of the last five seasons and he has the potential to earn $9m, or an additional 7.6 and there are very few golfers we can say that about.
I feel he is a very fair price, at least four points bigger than I made him and we have to bet strongly.
Bubba likes to say he is just a good old country boy, but is quite complex and there will be a few blips along the way and in one or two tournament he will look disinterested, which can be frustrating, but is not really the case and in contention he is very steely and determined . I read a good article about him recently which summed him up thus: " It's kind of like a first-grader's progress report: precocious if unpredictable talent with some impressive accomplishments. Does not play well with others."
Not sure about the last part, but I am fairly confident that if he stays healthy, he will earn a minimum $7m and that will see him in contention for this and at generous odds.
Watson has shown a liking for Doral and finished 2-T18-T2 over the last three years, he played relatively poorly over the weekend in 2013, otherwise he would have posted three consecutive top 3 finishes. The course was toughened up ahead of last year's tournament, they need not have done so if they had known what the weather was going to bring, the wind blew and that combined with the tougher layout, meant that the winning score was 15 (!) strokes worse than the previous year and only three players, Reed, Donaldson and Watson broke par for the 72 holes. Some of the Pros descibed the redesign making Doral like a new course, but maybe that had a lot to do with the weather, either way it is a bit of a monster and you need to get it out there to really have a chance and even in the wind last year, the top 5 were all very long off the tee. It doesn't overly matter how it plays, Bubba did well before the redesign and after, in gale force wind and in calm conditions, he likes it here, was born, bred and lives in Florida and it is hard to see him out of contention. He has finished 1-10-2-14 in his four "2015" starts and has the same build up as last year taking a little time off after the Phoenix Open and Northern Trust ( the WGC Matchplay has now been moved to later in the year) and for me , he has to go close. This is a reduced field of just 70 golfers and given that he has finished no worse than 14th in his last six starts, I see value in 2.50 for him to be top ten this week, but we can be a little more adventurous this time and I will opt for ......
1 unit Bubba Watson to win outright 15.0 +, there is up to 16.5 on the exchanges for reasonable four figure liquidity.
1.25 units Bubba watson to finish top 5 @ 4.0 general quote
The Championship is entering a very key stage of the season and every match is important, teams are starting to get nervous and we have see a few strange results recently, witness Wigan's win at Norwich City last night.
With just 11 rounds to play, the league table looks a lot like this .....
2014/15
Overall
Home
Away
P
W
D
L
F
A
Gdf
Pts
Form
P
W
D
L
F
A
P
W
D
L
F
A
1
1
Middlesbrough
35
19
9
7
53
24
+29
66
WLWL
18
11
4
3
33
10
17
8
5
4
20
14
2
1
Derby County
35
19
8
8
66
37
+29
65
LLWW
17
11
4
2
39
15
18
8
4
6
27
22
3
1
Watford
35
20
5
10
70
42
+28
65
WWWL
18
11
3
4
40
19
17
9
2
6
30
23
4
1
Bournemouth
35
18
9
8
69
38
+31
63
WOLL
18
9
6
3
32
21
17
9
3
5
37
17
5
2
Norwich City
35
18
8
9
66
38
+28
62
LWWW
18
9
5
4
40
19
17
9
3
5
26
19
6
1
Brentford
35
19
4
12
57
45
+12
61
WLWW
18
11
3
4
36
20
17
8
1
8
21
25
7
1
Ipswich Town
35
17
9
9
55
38
+17
60
LLWL
17
11
3
3
29
12
18
6
6
6
26
26
8
Wolves
35
16
9
10
48
42
+6
57
LWWW
17
9
4
4
26
15
18
7
5
6
22
27
9
Nottingham Forest
35
13
11
11
57
50
+7
50
LWWW
17
7
5
5
30
23
18
6
6
6
27
27
It looks very much like a case of any two (automatic) and four (playoffs) from eight and even Wolverhampton Wanderers in 8th will still be eyeing up a top two finish.
I have looked at difficulty of schedule, solely in terms of who teams have to play without any consideration as to how I feel those matches might play out, IMO easiest game is a home fixture against a "mid table" opponent, hardest a home or away start against a direct promotion rival, but they are also the games that you can earn the most from. Also, things can change quickly, for these purposes Forest are mid table, but if they were to pick up 5-6 points quicky, they could soon become a rival, likewise teams battling relegation which would be the second hardest group of fixtures could soon become the "easiest", if they secured survival or once they lost the battle to avoid the drop. Anyhow, using that criteria, Bournemouth (+22) have the easiest schedule, followed by Brentford (+21)and Nowich (+21), then Ipswich (+20) and Wolves (+20), Watford (+19.5), Derby (+19) and Middlesbrough (+15). You can see that Boro are some way adrift, by virtue of playing four direct rivals on the road and hosting two others, but win the first three or four of those and the title race could quickly be over. However, this does look set to go down to the wire.
If I exclude Brentford from the calculation, the top 3 are the best teams I have seen this season, Norwich and Bournemouth looked very limited when I saw both recently and win or lose, I feel the odds about City winning the title are very, very short indeed. At least the Cherries have a point more, easier schedule and better goal difference. I could not make Watford any bigger than 5.0 in a 100% book and would suggest that they are the best value right now at circa 7.50 and over the last ten and 15 games, they have collected most points of all the top 8.
We are heavily invloved in this race (see below) and have outright bets on the top two and a top six bet on Brentford, we kind of need two of these, or at least one if it is Boro, we do have cover as we have County at good odds and I don't really want to officially suggest betting something on Watford too, but again, they do look the best value around this morning and if you want to get some further "insurance" it looks the only real option. The Bees are trading at odds on for top 6 in most places, they are a bit hit and miss right now, with not much inbetween and really need a road performance to get back on track away from Griffin Park, they travel to play Ipswich Town on Saturday , in one of a whole host of vital fixtures, including Forest - Boro and Wolves- Watford, a really exciting two months in prospect.
I will return to this in a couple of weeks time, when hopefully Boro will be clear and Brentford closing in on second place !
Good Luck.
Updates below in blue type were written in early September, the outright previews in pre season.
Brentford:
Brentford have taken points from four of their five starts and only lost at Bournemouth (1-0) where they were the better team for long periods and hit the woodwork twice. They have adapted well to life at the higher level, but have yet to meet any of the really big Championship teams.
They have added to the depth in an already deep squad with the signings of youngster Jon Toral on a season long loan from Arsenal and made another "big money" signing, paying £1.3m for Jose Peleteiro Ramallo (Jota) from Celta Vigo. Toral was at Barcelona before joining the Gunners, Jota is very well thought of in Spain and was top scorer in the promotion winning Eibar team last season. That gives them three Spanish midfielders amongst a host of talented ball players in the centre of the park, a team full of pace and suited to playing on the road. They also added a bit more experience with the signing of Nick Proschwitz from Hull City and veteran Championship performer Tommy Smith.
Scott Hogan picked up and injury in pre season and then in his comeback game, what looks to be a season ending injury, the Bees acted quickly and signed striker Betinho on a season long loan from Sporting Lisbon as a direct replacement, you can see him in action on this link. Adam Forshaw has made his long touted move to Wigan , but Brentford had replaced him with similar quality before he was allowed to leave.
The 8.0 for a top 6 finish is down to 6.0 which I feel is about correct, but this is a club with huge potential only heading in one direction and money will always be available for the right signing.
Derby County:
Since the pre season notes they have signed striker Leon Best from Blackburn Rovers and youngster Omar Mascarell from Real Madrid as a direct replacement for George Thorne (out for the season), he made his first team debut for Real at the end of last season, played on the US tour this pre season and clearly has a future at the Bernabeu, so this looks good business, with County and McClaren keen to build relationships with the bigger european clubs, witness also the signing of Calero (see below), whom they are very pleased with.
They have also tied Jamie Ward down with a two year contract extention and signed Ryan Shotton from Stoke City , who had his pick of a host of Championship clubs and Jordan Ibe from Liverpool on a season long loan. This is a VERY strong group of players .
They have yet to really hit their stride yet, but showed in a 5-1 demolition of Fulham , oh and by the way I have seen Fulham twice and they are MUCH better than the league table suggest, what they are capable of and they will not be far away. The 9.0 to win the Championship is still available in a place or two and it is very hard to see them being too far away come May.
Middlesbrough
Boro have been a little disappointing on the pitch, just six points on board, but it should really be 12 and I have taken a positive slant on this, as it has enabled me to be able to bet a little more at the advised 21.0 and 3.75 which is still on offer.
Off the pitch, they have played like champions and last week added Patrick Bamford, Belgium international striker Jelle Vossen, Chelsea goalkeeper Jamal Blackman and winger Yanic Wildschut, 22 a Netherlands Under-21international. The week before Ryan Fredricks joined from Tottenham, all the other signings have been discussed many times, they are a work in progress, but Aitor Karanka got every single player he targeted and was backed to the hilt by owner Steve Gibson and they are 100% set on promotion. If they had 12 points in the bag and made these signings, people would be falling over themselves to back them at 9.0. Six points is nothing over 41 games and I would prefer the bigger odds and feel they still offer very good value.
Championship Preview Part 1 (written July 25th)
My main bet for the Champonship will be in Part 2, which I will probably send out next week, for now I want to discuss Brentford, who are my team, but I make no excuses for wanting to talk about them in detail, they are (obviously) the club I know best and the one I get almost every snippet of news about.
I do not have a problem opposing them and actually had a rare maximum bet on them to lose at home a season or so back and backed them very strongly to be relegated in 2006-07 which you can read on this link. It was not very well written, but as every single word was painful for me to type about my beloved Bees, it was no surprise and the money won was some small consolation, as they were relegated with four games to play and finished bottom of the table .....
20
2
Leyton Orient
46
12
15
19
61
77
-16
51
LLWX
23
6
10
7
30
32
23
6
5
12
31
45
21
1
Chesterfield
46
12
11
23
45
53
-8
47
LWLL
23
9
5
9
29
22
23
3
6
14
16
31
22
1
Bradford City
46
11
14
21
47
65
-18
47
XLLW
23
5
9
9
27
31
23
6
5
12
20
34
23
Rotherham United1
46
13
9
24
58
75
-17
38
LLLL
23
8
4
11
37
39
23
5
5
13
21
36
24
Brentford
46
8
13
25
40
79
-39
37
LWLL
23
5
8
10
24
41
23
3
5
15
16
38
It is hard to think of that Brentford, as the same team which earned promotion to the Championship, they have come so far, the former were heavily in debt and were always a selling club , struggling to get by and unable to really plan for the future, they have previously spent one season in the second tier in the last six decades and had spent the rest of the time yo-yoing between the bottom two divisions. It didn't mean that any supporter loved them less, in a strange way you love them more, all too rare successes are celebrated all the harder and expectation levels whilst low, can always be dragged up by a couple of wins, only for them to (usually) disappoint and be left scattered to the four winds ! This is not unique to Brentford, teams all other the country have had similarly little success and equally loyal supporters, even though they might be few in number.
Of course, the masochistic side of me and that is part and parcel of supporting a lower level club, feels a tinge of sadness that the old Brenford is disappearing, the essence of the family club is still there, but when Griffin Park is torn down it will be the end of an era and I for one will have to keep eyes straight forward and a lump out of my throat as I drive past that part of the M4 motorway, instead of raising a cheer, as everyone in the car has to at present.
Anyway, most of you have only heard about the new Brentford, since Matthew Benham has been involved they have only been heading in one direction and I told you in great detail the season before last and many times since, about his huge investment (which is not debt to the club) in the team he has supported since childhood and the plans he has put in place, not just for now, but five and even twenty + years down the line, including after his passing ( he is still only in his 40's). The club has been geared up for second tier football for several years and the backroom team and staff and I am talking about every single employee knows where Brentford are heading and it is beyond the Championship. The blueprint is Southampton and the investment in training ground, centre of excellence, academy , in addition to the new stadium at Lionel Road is massive and ultra professional.
20 months ago, I wrote a small piece about Mark Warburton, who is now Brentford manager, but was at the time, Director of Football and barely know outside real football circles .....
But it was elsewhere that Brentford had a big week. Premier League WBA have been courting Bees Director of Football Mark Warburton, I explained his role at the club last season to long term readers, he has put in place Medical and Performance Analysis teams that are the envied by many bigger clubs and it is this kind of development I speak when I say the club are run along lines of a Championship + club, they have been for 12-18 months and the trees they have planted and beginning to bear fruit. Warburton was flattered, but has chosen to stay at Brentford and I never doubted he would as he is a key part in the club, in what is a long term project, he said "It was very flattering to be even linked to such a senior role at a club of the stature of West Bromwich Albion." "However, I am part of an exciting project that is well underway at Griffin Park and it is only right that my focus should be to help take the club forward and achieve its aims and ambitions." "I enjoy an excellent relationship with Uwe Rösler, Ose Aibangee and all of the football staff and we are very fortunate to similarly enjoy the support of a club Board which is totally committed to taking the club to the next level."
He added "Brentford Football Club has made tremendous strides in the past 18 months." "It is a Club set up to make progress up the football pyramid and we have sought to put into place a backroom and management team that are more than capable of working at a significantly higher level." "There is a young, talented First Team squad that we hope will continue to develop and this will be bolstered by players coming through at younger levels of an excellently-run Academy."There is a new ground on the horizon too, which will only help the Club to grow."
Warburton is close to the owner and whilst Rosler may go at some stage, that is kind of the nature of things in football, I think he and Matthew Benham have long term plans. This is now an exceedingly well run club and they will be playing Championship football, if not next season, then the one after and they have ambition beyond that. This was the first big approach for a member of the backroom staff and the fact that it was unsuccessful, was a massive statement of intent from the whole club. It was also probably made easier as Warburton is already said to be wealthy/secure from non football related business dealings.
You might think that this will have little influence on the match today, but I disagree and feel the players can further feed off the confidence Warburton has shown in the project.
He took charge when Uwe Rosler left, Uwe was always going to leave if a good job in the North West came up, his dream is to coach Manchester City and it is easier to catch their eye, on their own doorstep. I was happy with the backroom coaching staff ahead of last season, but to say it has been upgraded is a massive understatement. Warburton has proved himself in the position and is living his own dream right now, but as and when he decides to step back up stairs, he has a number two in David Weir who was a legend at Everton and Rangers in the wings, plus a DoF in Frank McParland who oversaw the developement of the Liverpool academy and was much admired by Rafael Benitez, bringing a string of young talent through to the first team, including Raheen Sterling. These are not League 1 level appointments and neither are they Championship level.
Everything is done properly, there has been big investment in the Medical, Conditioning and Logistics department and that has proved beneficial in terms of players avoiding injury and massive fitness levels wich was something I spoke about ahead of last season and which I have highlighted below .....
Brentford have been well tipped up, pretty much across the board, we were on them last season at much bigger prices and I do feel that they were probably better value then, they came up just short, but most of us earned money out of them, so they do not owe us anything.
However, the Bees were one of the two best teams in League 1 last year, they are definitely stronger this season (I will talk about the new signings later), the division is weaker this time round IMO and the the squad which was one of the youngest , is a year older and a lot wiser. We have spoken often about how they tend to improve as a club in second/ third meetings against teams and that attention to detail and investment in backroom staff , will be even more valuable this season. We talked last season about any number of things that the Bees do ,which other teams at their level either do not have the resources for, or if they do, choose to spend their money elsewhere.
For example, Brentford have a Performance Analysis team which extends to 3-4 people, as opposed to one ,if they are lucky, at most third tier teams. They go through every players performance after games and sometimes even at the half time break if they have spotted something and this is done not just with the first team, but at developement level.
The club have put huge investment into the training pitch and Academy, which is run along the same lines as big european teams, Brentford were two weeks ago upgraded to Category Two Football Academy status, the only club outside the top two divisions to ever make this step up.
They have purchased land for a new stadium at Lionel Road and owner Matthew Benham, who is a lifetime supporter, has taken steps to secure the long term financing of the club and all these projects, should something happen to him and this is clearly the strongest Brentford have been on and off the pitch in 60 years.
They are not "throwing" money at the team, most of the big investment is in long term projects, but these facilities and approach do encourage players to want to come and in terms of loan deals, bigger clubs to be willing to let youngsters with potential come to Griffin Park, knowing they will be well looked after and they have an especially close relationship with Everton.
I also feel they were the best conditioned team in League 1 and this was highlighted by two sets of stats, firstly, when they scored their goals, with 50% coming in either the last 15 minutes of the first half (23% ... this is a big number) or the last 15 of the match (27%) and also the huge number of points they gained from losing positions (23).
I also explained about the set up of the backroom beyond manager Uwe Rosler and especially Director of Football Mark Warburton who was approached by a Premier League club last season .
Now the team, they lost Harry Forrester to Doncaster Rovers and on Monday, keeper Simon Moore to Cardiff City. They were both "expected", Moore is a good young keeper with huge potential, but not the finished article, he should develop into a quality top flight keeper, but for now, he is probably not better than Bees other senior keeper Richard Lee, however Lee is still recovering from injury , but the club had already signed 19 yo Watford keeper Jack Bonham and yesterday added David Button from Charlton as replacement for Moore.
Uwe Rösler : “We always felt we had to have a Plan B in place in case we had offers for Simon Moore. Over the summer we had goalkeepers in on trial and we made lists and enquiries in case Simon left. That happened this week and with Simon going out the door, there is an opportunity for someone to come in. We decided David was the perfect choice for us. He is at the right age and he is very hungry to make the number one spot his own. As soon as Simon left, David was our first choice. He is the only player we enquired about and the only player we made a bid for. We did not at any stage make any enquiries or bids for any other goalkeepers. David will face strong competition for the goalkeeper spot from Jack Bonham and Richard Lee, when Richard is fit again. We are very strong in the goalkeeper department. We have been strong there over the past two seasons and are even stronger this year. I look forward to working with David and our other goalkeepers. I believe it is very important to have match winners in both penalty areas. You need strikers to win matches and goalkeepers to win matches. Richard Lee and Simon Moore have won matches for us; goalkeeper is a crucial position and David is a very good player. I am very happy with the signing.”
Mark Warburton said: "We had to move very quickly to find a more than suitable replacement. David has an excellent pedigree from his time at the Tottenham Academy and in the Charlton First Team. He is a goalkeeper who still has outstanding potential and we are very excited to secure his services at Brentford FC. David is very keen to prove he is a number one goalkeeper and this is an opportunity for him to do that. We hope this is a great move for both parties.”
I wanted to explain their thinking, as this is typical of how the club is run now, there is always a Plan B and they are proactive rather than reactive in everything.
The surplus money received for Moore and Button was not cheap anyway (neither figure was disclosed), is available if required for further strengthening. It might not be needed just yet.
They also signed...Conor McAleny (Everton), Martin Fillo (Viktoria Plzen), Javi Venta ( Villarreal), George Saville (Chelsea), Alan McCormack ( Swindon) and Will Grigg (Walsall). McAleny is a 20 yo striker and alreay has the club buzzing, he scored twice against PL Cardiff City last night. Fillo is a Czech international, Venta is a veteran defender who has played a dozen Champions League matches and he has brought into the project to help with the youngsters. Saville is a combative midfielder who, according to Warburton, trained every day last season with the Chelsea first team. McCormack is a team leader and was hugely influential in a strong Swindon team over the last two seasons playing 94 matches, I am hugely pleased with this addition and also Grigg, who is just 22yo and scored 19 goals last season in what I felt was an average Walsall team.
I am equally delighted that the loan deal for 20 yo left back Jake Bidwell (Everton) was made permanent and Harlee Dean a hugely promising 22 yo centre back and 21 yo midfielder Adam Forshaw ( another former Evertonian) have both signed three year contract extensions. These are the future of the club and all will be playing at a much higher level soon, hopefully with Brentford.
Bees also have Stuart Dallas, who is still only 22 yo and has been brought along very slowly by the Bees, Rosler when asked, always says "we know what we have with Stuart" with the implication that he is a future star, albeit a raw one, when we have seen him, he looks good and this should be his breakthrough year.
Squad wise this is incredibly strong and they have, with no exaggeration, 22-23 players who would start each week at probably 18-20 of the other League 1 clubs, Wolves are the unknown factor, they still have £19m worth of EPL parachute money, but like Portsmouth in League 2, every team will be extra motivated playing them and after two terrible campaigns, they have to start well.
Brentford were third last year, hard, almost impossible, to see them finishing any lower this season. I debated long and hard about how or if to bet them and am happy with my decision.
To finsh off with the backroom staff, they actually have seven people working solely on Performance Analysis under head Neil McIlhargey, that is even beyond most EPL level and they monitor every aspect of all the teams from the first eleven (they even occasionally have input at half time), even down to under 9's. They analyse opponents and opposition on an individual basis, they report to the manager and coaching staff at half time and immediately after the match before doing a fuller analysis of the game. They work 24 hours straight through after the game between them, to have individual player and team analysis ready for Monday morning, this is a mixture of qualitative and quantitative information and more subjective tactical analysis of strengths and weaknesses.
Anyway, suffice to say, this is a very well run club, the money spent has been enormous, although to be honest the area they have spent least on is transfer fees, at least until this summer and if the deal is right and Brentford can get young talent and they do have to be young, then they will spend money. Brentford have lost Clayton Donaldson who has been fantastic for his three seasons at GP, but the club could not agree to the three year deal he wanted and Marcello Trotta has returned to Fulham and George Saville to Chelsea.
The Bees have signed 23 yo Andre Gray from Luton (30 goals last season), 22 yo Scott Hogan from Rochdale ( 17 goals last season) , Moses Odubajo from Orient, Marcos Tebar ( almost ever present for Almeria in La Liga) , Alan Judge on a permanent deal from Blackburn Rovers ( he was on loan last season) , they cost circa £3m, in addition , Alex Pritchard has signed a season long loan deal from Tottenham. League 1 POTY in 13/14 was the Bees midfield general Adam Forshaw, few regular watchers would argue that Pritchard (on was on loan at Swindon) and Odubajo were the next best, or at least in the top 5. This is some of the most exciting young talent outside the top flight and add into the mix Jake Bidwell and James Tarkowski, plus a few experienced heads and this is a squad bursting with potential and I have been told that two more eye catching deals will be done in the next few days.
I saw them at Barnet in midweek, yes they were playing a non league team, but one up for it and at times it was embarrassing how good the Bees were, they scored five and with no exaggeration it could have been 11 and the pace in the team is frightening , I was scared on the sidelines ! This season is a step mup, of course it is, but one they are well prepared for and in many ways, perhaps missing out with that last minute penalty miss in 2012-13 was a blessing in disguise, as they are so much bigger, better and faster now.
I will leave the last word to Scott Hogan , who was unsure about moving South and who had a lot of big name northern Championship clubs chasing him, he said as soon as he saw the set up and spoke to the coaching staff for one minute, he was convinced about where the Bees were going and told his agent to get the deal done. I know all the players that they have signed over the summer had many other options , but all have bought into the dream once they have taken a look. A big EPL push within 2-3 seasons for Brentford.
What about this season ? I suspect they might ultimately come up a little short, but, we will never get these odds again IMO, a bet I really like is 3.0 to finish top 12 with Bet Victor and a lot of you did manage toget on there last season with a similar bet, so that is an option if available to you. Likewise handicap lists and match bets which companies will start to release in the next few days........I will opt for 1.5 units Brentford to finish top six @ 8.0 general quote.
Championship Outright: (written July 29th)
We have already discussed Brentford in great detail and taken a position on them, but now I want to look at my idea of the best value selection(s) to win the Championship. Most of you know the very high regard I hold Bolton Wanderers boss Dougie Freedman in and it would not surprise me if they put in a push of sorts this time round, but their massive level of debt (regardless of whom it is owed to) is a major concern and reducing the running costs and flirting with the playoffs will probably be seen as a success and that is not what we are looking for.
I can start by saying that I feel Derby County are the best team in the division and Leicester City aside, probably were for almost all of last season too. To say they were robbed by QPR in the playoff final is an understatement and Happy Harry Redknapp and Bobby Zamora collected their medals wearing highwayman masks !
Of course, I am talking a little through my pocket and I was big on County in the post season, but only the blinkered would disagree. My notes on them ahead of the semi final first leg and final are reproduced below and I have highlighted in heavy type a couple of key passages that bear re-reading.
After coming so close only to fall short and with so much admired and young talent in their ranks, I expected, at best, a mini exodus from Pride Park, with a whole host of EPL clubs sniffing around, but that has not happened. Craig Bryson has signed a new five year (!) contract, Will Hughes remains and boss Steve McClaren has shown similar loyalty to the cause and turned down the offer of at least one job in the top flight. The players did not have a long time to dwell on things, just four weeks off and straight back to some very intense and hard pre season work, with McClaren drilling into his talented troops the need for shape and discipline and he has spoken of his pride in the condition of his squad.
The great unknown factor is if there are any mental scars left over from the Wembley set back, but we can never know that, what we can be reasonably sure of is, if they play close to last season's level they will go close to winning and we can make a case for them being stronger this time round. They youngsters will all be that little more experienced and McClaren has added to his squad with George Thorne (West Bromwich Albion), Cyrus Christie (Coventry City), Alefe Santos (Bristol Rovers), Alban Bunjaku (Sevilla), Jonathan Mitchell (Newcastle United), Zak Whitbread (Leicester City) and Ivan Calero (Atlético Madrid). Most of those are for the future and fit the County mould of young talent, but Bunjaku was highly thought of at Arsenal, Christie looked very good last year in League 1 and lots of EPL clubs were monitoring Santos, Whitbread is very experienced at this level and spent time on loan here last season. Now the bad news, George Thorne was the exciting signing everyone was "pumped" by, but he has picked up a serious injury and will miss most of this season. McClaren is looking for a replacement, but has lost that part of his budget and it is a blow, but off the pitch Derby have been doing well and just announced a couple of new sponsorship deals, which might release additional funds and the club have sold almost 21,000 season tickets as of a few days ago.
Anyway, I have to include them in my "portfolio" 1.5 units Derby County to win outright 9.0 general quote.
For my main outright bet I am going to be a little more adventurous and suggest Middlesbrough.
They have been on my radar for some time and I think now is the right time to push the button. Last season they finished 12th, eight points adrift of a playoff spot and I expect them to finish a lot closer this time round. Aitor Karanka replaced Tony Mowbray as coach in mid November and it was always going to take time for him to get his ideas across and a full pre season working with the squad, before we would see the benefit of his vast experience at the top Spanish clubs. He was previously assistant manager at Real Madrid under Jose Mourinho, no one who has held that role before, has come out a worse coach and Karanka has done his new club no harm in steadfastly defending Mourinho's reign at Madrid and openly speaking out in favour of his former boss. This loyalty has already been rewarded and I understand that Karanka has pretty much first option on any Chelsea youngsters going out on loan and central defender Kenneth Omeruo who was on loan at Boro last season, has rejoined on a one year deal from the Blues, after impressing with his four starts for Nigeria at the World Cup and I understand one or two more might make the move up from London.
Karanka has also signed left back James Husband from Doncaster Rovers and also used his contacts in Spain to snap up keeper Tomas Mejias from Real Madrid and prolific striker Kike from Murcia for a big fee (circa £3m+). Lee Tomlin and Albert Adomah are two very gifted players, who long term readers will know I rate quite highly , they joined Boro last season and both should be even more productive this time round.Likewise, centre back Daniel Ayala , who like Tomlin, joined in the last transfer window. It is amazing that George Friend has never been picked up by a top flight club and he is a very classy left back and with Husband as cover, they are very well looked after in this key position.
Adan Reach is just 20 and an England U20 international of almost limitless potential and he and Friend were picked out by a good judge I know, who saw Boro last week in pre season, as "certain to play in the top flight". Reach is one of several who have come up from the well respected Academy at Boro which has produced players like Adam Johnson and Stewart Downing in recent years.
Genk striker Jelle Vossen has long been touted as on the move to Boro and it looks like that deal might still be possible and is being much discussed today, although funds are tight at the club, they will find the money for the right player and are keen to really make a big push this season. I understand that two more deals will "definitely" be done before the season starts, including another Chelsea player and this is starting to look like a squad with plenty of potential.
Like the coach, there are a number of players who should improve in the second season and Kike could really be the 20 goal striker they have been looking for and he could make the same sort of impact as Michu in his first season at Swansea. All the Boro supporters who went to Rochdale last week have been raving over him and already believe he is the real deal, you can see a montage of some of his goals on this youtube (Preview) (Preview) (Preview) (Preview) clip.
Not much improvement needed to make a top six push and they could be much better than that.
1.75 units Middlesbrough to win outright 17.0-21.0 general quote .
1.75 units Middlesbrough to finish top 6 @ 3.50-3.75 general quote.
Good Luck.
Championship Playoff Final: Derby County- QPR (May 24th)
We are already on County outright at circa 3.25 and those notes are reproduced at the foot of the email. Obviously I am pleased with our position and hope that this time justice will be done and we will see the better and more adventurous team gets their fair reward.
I can see the wide open spaces of Wembley suiting the Rams , who have pace to burn on both flanks and are the best counter attacking team in the Championship, any of you who watched that semi final first leg will be only too aware of that. But they are much more than that, witness the demolition of Brighton in the return leg, when some of their football was simply breathtaking. Derby coach Steve McClaren said afterwards :"We played some wonderful football,it was a really unbelievable first goal."It must be enjoyable to watch, but not just that – it’ s the work rate, and the aggression, and the togetherness, and spirit. "It’s a good combination. I’m proud of the boys."
McClaren will surely welcome the opportunity to return to Wembley and exorcise some of those old demons, this will be his first game at the national stadium since the (in)famous umbrella incident. At the time the ruthless UK media were already gunning for blood, McClaren didn't need to load the guns and paint a massive target on his chest/brolly !
He spent three months on the Rangers coaching staff earlier this season, so will be very familiar with today's opponent and has Player of the Year, Craig Bryson available to return in midfield after missing the second leg against Brighton. That might mean Will Hughes, who scored the very classy first goal<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb8h-Jns0U" rel="no