Firstly, a message to save me writing individually to everyone who has asked, it is now possible to deposit and withdraw for free via Skrill with Ibramarket/Sportmarket Pro in GBP/EUR/ USD. Also USD accounts are now available on Sportmarket Pro.
In addition to our main "Winter" staples of England, Italy, Spain and France, J-league started last week and MLS football saw the first round of games this last weekend, so we have six of our main seven leagues in action at the same time. When Brazil gets underway next month, all seven and alert followers will know that we had an incredible run right through September, October and November last year when the Magnificent Seven were all "in play" together.
Things to check out ....
There has been an in depth preview of the full service by The Secret Betting Club and you can read a brief excerpt from that on the website, the full article will be available in full at some stage, probably next month.
There was a 20-1 winner/suggestion sent to subscribers (link) which will never appear in any stats/results and highlights the true value of the service.
Similarly, the cleansweep on the Superbowl, these suggestions are never included in results and you all know my thoughts on results anyway. However, John is posting a results update on the website, sometime over the next 24 hours and I can give you a quick advance look....
In 2013 there were 1,317 official "red type"selections , stakes were 1,707 units, with a profit of 260.5 units, a ROI of +15.26%.
This year we have had a bit of a roller coaster ride, pretty good January, poorish February, OK first week in March and we are hitting a profit of 13% +from 270 bets in 2014.
Let me put that into some context, we bet almost exclusively on the easiest to bet, but toughest to beat markets. If you can make a profit of 8% over a 50 bet sample betting asian handicap/vegas lines, you are considered good, we have hit 15% over a massive 1,600 bet sample and approx 16% across some 4,000 plus selections over the last eight years.
Every match/event is previewed in depth and most carry additional information that you can use to make money either that day or in the future, the newsletter X factor if you like.
I have a very loyal subscriber base, quite a few people dip in and out of the service, sign up for four weeks and when they have not made a fortune after a month drop out. But 91% of people who take out a six month subscription renew, dozens are signed up well into 2015 and a substantial number into 2016. One renewed at full rate for 12 months last week and said he would sign up for a lifetime subscription if it were possible. That might sound like BS, but is 100% true and I have dozens of subscribers that I know, touch wood, will still be reading newsletters in five years time. What format that will be in, who knows !
I have sent subscribers six match previews today, two have already taken place and the other four are this evening, you can read one of the active previews in full and most of one of the others.
The next free newsletter will sent in 7-8 days time 30 + previews scheduled for subscribers over the next seven days, to receive them all and never miss another newsletter, click here !
Tuesday March 11th
AFC Champions League:
This is a competition we have done incredibly well with in recent years, we picked up on Guangzhou Evergrande way ahead (12 months +) of everyone one else and especially how they tended to win their matches. Little seemed to have changed in the first round of group games in that respect and they will probably feature in tomorrow's notes.
I want to talk briefly about two games today, but as I mentioned ahead of Matchday 1, it is the third round of fixtures I really have my eye on, teams are facing some very long journeys this week, which, stating the obvious, means they have to travel home again, most play a league game at the weekend and by next midweek, that is going to put a huge strain on resources. With many teams still looking for match fitness so early in the season, that will be too much for some .
Central Coast Mariners- Sanfreece Hiroshima
Mariners are coming towards the end of their season and a very disappointing one it has been for them and they are going to struggle to repeat their top two finish in each of the last three seasons and their A-League Finals Series success of last year.
They are coming off a 3-1 loss at Melbourne Victory on Friday, but felt they were better defensively there and that they had benefited from the trip to Seoul in the opening group game, when the week spent together as a group, had enabled them to work on issues and get back to basics. Home boss Phil Moss said they could "refocus on key areas that made us successful in the past, we had taken our eye off a few little areas but now we are back on track.''
This will be their third AFC CL group stage and they improved greatly in the competition between the previous two, but after a 2-0 loss to FC Seoul they will have to do so again, if they are to give themselves a chance to progress.
Both teams seem to know how this is likely to play out, Mariners captain John Hutchinson said his team will likely try to intimidate Sanfrecce and added that they will not want the match to open up.
The two-time J.League champion visitors will be without striker Hisato Sato and Croatian midfielder Mihael Mikic whom they have left at home with minor knocks. Coach Hajime Moriyasu said:"We had a long trip from Japan so the team are a little tired but everything is OK."We left Mikic in Japan due to a back injury and because the long flight may have taken a toll on his body and Sato is in Japan due to a knee strain.
"Central Coast have players of a high physical capacity. They are very tall, big and strong."I think the Mariners are going to play aggressively in this game. In Japan, a physical game is hard to play against so we need to play with speed, and do more running than the Mariners."
Sanfreece gave up a lot of ground early in the title race last year when struggling through both the group stages and early league games and trying to compete in both took a big toll. They have learned from that and that is the real reason IMO, they left players at home.
They clearly stated pre season that a hat-trick of domestic titles was their aim for this season and I suspect they will view the visit from Urawa at the weekend as almost as important.
The visitors played a J-League match late on Saturday afternoon and now are in Gosford on Tuesday early evening, after what must be a 12 hour flight and probably a 16 hour journey.
Mariners are much stronger at home than on the road, do have a little more mobility up front than most Australian teams and are good from dead balls, which could work in their favour with the smaller team looking to over compensate.
It is the gruelling schedule of the last few days that makes me want to oppose Sanfreece who have also not won in seven AFC CL group games, with five draws. Another stalemate would not be a disaster for either and keep qualification hope alive. Very small bet for me 1 unit Central Coast Mariners +0.5 ball 2.01 asian line/Ibramarket
Cerezo Osaka- Shandong Luneng
We have both opposed and backed Osaka over the opening two weeks of the season (see preview on the clubgowi website) and are looking for the hat-trick today.
Chinese clubs are looking to replicate the success of Evergrande and Shandong were the closest domestic challenger to Guangzhou last season , some way adrift, but also 8 points clear of Beijing Guoan who finished in third. Guoan qualified from the group stage last season, taking four points from the J-league champions in the process.
Shandong look stronger and in Vagner Love, Walter Montillo and Aloisio, have South American offensive quality most of you will be familiar with and some very decent domestic players with six in the national team at present. The backine has been built around Australian international Ryan McGowan, whom you might know from his time at Hearts in the SPL.
They were devastated by an injury time equaliser in their group opener, which robbed them of all three points, but have now started their league and should be fitter and better able to see out the game today and will be hugely motivated to get a result ahead of a trip to group favourites Pohang Steelers next week.
Their coach Cuca is vastly experienced and won the Copa Libertadores with Atlético Mineiro last year, his experience in international club competitions will be vital and why he was brought into the club. His stock was high, his demands equally so and in many ways this is no less an appointment than Marcello Lippi at Evergrande was.
For the home side the loss of central defender Kota Fujimoto (see below) will be far bigger today than against Vortis. I like the visitors, a "shock" away win would not surprise me and the handicap start looks big. 1.25 units Shandong Luneng +0.75 ball 2.04 asian line/Ibramarket.
.Championship: Barnsley -Leicester City
City are on the brink of a return to the top flight and are the best team in the Championship
the rest of this preview is only available to clubgowi subscribers please do not make assumptions about the final analysis, as there are often counter arguments to those you can read and we might not end up quite where you expect !
League 1 : Colchester United -Bradford City
I saw City play on Saturday, after which I wrote .....
I often say that confidence can come and go quickly with young sportsmen and after carrying all before them for the best part of four months, you could tell that a little of the self belief had deserted Brentford yesterday, after the heavy defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers and failure to beat Carlisle United. They passed the ball well enough, but created nothing in a poor first half and were not playing at their usual tempo. However, they looked much better after the break, especially when switching to 4-3-3 ( they played two up front in the opening 45 ) and with the goal after an hour, the confidence came flooding back and for the final 30 minutes they were a joy to watch and could easily have scored four. The drying pitches definitely suit Brentford better and head coach Mark Warburton and his team learned a LOT from the loss to the leaders and he/they were far more pro active tactically and in terms of using the bench yesterday. It is OK to make mistakes in sport/betting and life, as long as we learn something from them.
Massive week for the Bees, Tranmere Rovers at home on Tuesday and away to Leyton Orient on Saturday lunchtime in a televised top of the table clash. If some newer subscribers are wondering what the heck we are doing starting today by discussing a match we were not involved in yesterday in depth, my pre-season notes on Brentford are reproduced at the foot of the page. By the way Bradford City left me a little cold and in stark contrast to how I left Adams Park "pumped" by their perfomance a year ago, they came looking for a point yesterday and showed little real game plan. The Bantams were unexpectedly missing a couple of very key players (Andrew Davies and James Hanson ), but have lost their way, amazing support though from almost 1,000 travelling away fans. Big club at this level and they will be stronger next season if they can find some investment, but I understand funds are tight. We can save that for late July/early August !
I understand that Davies (16-0-0) and Hanson (30-11-5), both traveled down with the squad yesterday and will be assessed this morning after a short training session, with Davies the more likely of the two to play. I spoke about how important Davies was to City early in the season and to be honest, nearly fell off my seat at Griffin Park, when I saw that both he and the giant striker were not even on the bench, but had no way to pass on the news to you, at least not in an "official" capacity. City have won 1/19 without him this season and 5/18 last season, in what was a promotion campaign ! They are 0-0-4 without Hanson this season and it now seems that ever present captain Gary Jones (33-5-5) is very doubtful for tonight, he has not trained since Saturday.
Most of you know that I rate ..........the rest of this preview is only available to clubgowi subscribers please do not make assumptions about the final analysis, as there are often counter arguments to those you can read and we might not end up quite where you expect !
UEFA Champions League:
Bayern Munich-Arsenal
There are so many similarities between this game and the meeting between the two clubs almost exactly 52 weeks ago, when I wrote .....Seeing +1.25 ball for Arsenal just seems wrong in any game, especially when the hosts already lead 3-1 and will surely be happy to see this out with the minimum of fuss. The Gunners have travelled without keeper Wojciech Szczesny, with Arsene Wenger saying that the Polish international has been "mentally affected" by the number of games he's had to play and he will be replaced by Lukasz Fabianski.Also out is Jack Wilshere, right back Bacary Sagna and striker Lukas Podolski ,on the plus side Abou Diaby, Andrey Arshavin and Kieran Gibbs, come back in. Fabianski has not played 90 minutes in 13 months which is a concern, but the backline in front of him will look a little more solid, if Gibbs starts. Wilshere is a big loss.
Bayern, are without Bastian Schweinsteiger, Jerome Boateng, Holger Badstuber and Franck Ribery, I assume that Luiz Gustavo will come in for Schweinsteiger, the only CL start he made this season was the shock 3-1 defeat at BATE, he will sit in front of Dante and Daniel van Buyten and it is fair to say that if there is a weakness in Bayern tonight, it is in this central spine. Arjen Robben, who has been listed as a doubt, looks set to play.
Hosts have won nine in a row at home in Europe and lost just one in 17, but that defeat came at this stage to Internazionale in 2010-11, after Bayern had won the first leg on the road, not for the first time, they paid the price there for over confidence and even with a two goal advantage this time, I expect a pretty cautious approach from them, at least early on.. The home side have conceded in 7 of their 13 home Bundesliga games and in all three CL group games, so hope there for the Gunners, who scored in all three group away starts, including twice at both Montpellier and Schalke.
We have not seen Arsenal since the North London derby loss to Tottenham, where aside from a ten minute spell just before the break, I thought they played as well as at any time this season, especially in the opening 20 minutes. If Wilshere was available, I would be in love with these odds for Arsenal, his loss makes things much harder. If the 5.0 for Arsenal to score two or more was freely available I would also be very keen on that, as I definitely expect the visitors to score and at some stage they will have to gamble big time and then it could develope into a shootout. As it is, I will opt for a minimal bet on Arsenal to score two or more, so, 0.75 units @ 4.2 +... there is 4.33 and 4.50 around and as I said, even 5.0 in a couple of places.
The Gunners won that 2-0, Bayern again take a two goal advantage into the home leg, Fabianski once more replaces Wojciech Szczesny in goal. Jack Wilshere misses out again, but this time Kieran Gibbs, Aaron Ramsey and Theo Walcott amongst others are sidelined too. A lot of .............the rest of this preview is only available to clubgowi subscribers please do not make assumptions about the final analysis, as there are often counter arguments to those you can read and we might not end up quite where you expect !
Atletico Madrid-AC Milan
We previewed the first leg in some detail and that is reproduced below. Milan were desperately unlucky not to win, let alone lose and should really be coming here with a lead to protect, now they know they have to score, or be eliminated and that would effectively end their season. Under Clarence Seedorf i Rossoneri have improved, but not enjoyed the greatest of good fortune, having also outplayed runaway Serie A leaders Juventus for much of the game at the beginning of the month, yet finding a way to lose 2-0. They played at a very high tempo in that game and if they can do likewise this evening, I can see a lot of joy for them . They were denied three times by the woodwork in the first leg and every time I see the first of those, the shot from Kaka, I think it is going in ! I must admit I sense an upset here and certainly do not see Milan as a lost cause by any means. I definitely feel they will score tonight and I am torn between both to score at circa 2.0 and the visitors with the handicap start. Goals have not particularly flowed for Milan, but we have seen little of Mario Balotelli and Giampaolo Pazzini together, but what we have seen looks good, or at least productive, with a goal every 37 minutes, it would be fun to see both tonight and we probably will at some stage. 2-1/ 1-1/1-2 something like that for me. The defensive side of Adel Taarabt (is there one ?) has improved slightly, but he can go missing and there will be space on his flank, which is a concern, but nonetheless..... 1.25 units Milan +1 ball 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
AC Milan-Atletico Madrid ( written February 19th)
We last discussed Milan, with special focus on new coach Clarence Seedorf at the end of last month.
"Hosts are without Riccardo Montolivo (14-2-2 Serie A), but have named every other available player in a large squad for today, in what will be Clarence Seedorf's second match in charge. They eased past Verona with a late penalty on his debut at the weekend, build up play was good enough, but they lacked a cutting edge. However, Seedorf is a very upbeat character and has completely changed the mood at the club over the last week, after his first training session he said : "I have a huge desire to transmit enthusiasm and joy, which are the fundamental elements in doing this work to the best of your ability, we are all lucky to be able to do this job which is almost like a hobby."
He opened up the first sessions to the public, which helped get some of the more sceptical supporters on his side and has made his intention, which is to play attacking football and to his teams strength, perfectly clear. He is playing 4-2-3-1 and started with Mario Balotelli, Kaká, Robinho and Keisuke Honda all on the pitch , he seems likely to do the same tonight and after another 2-3 days training with Seedorf at the helm, they should know more about what the coach expects.Senior players have all given him praise and their full support, Balotelli has been given more license to roam and we might see the best of him over the next month.
Serie A is all but over for Milan, catching Inter, whom they currently trail by seven points will doubtless be a target, but the focus otherwise will be the Champions League and Coppa Italia, so a big match this evening.
Udinese are not in good shape and they have conceded 15 goals in seven starts, three in four, including their last two starts, on the road to Sampdoria and home to Lazio . In the latter, they led twice and conceded the last two decisive goals when they opponents were down to ten men and that was hugely disappointing. An early goal could easily see this develop into a shootout, with two attacking teams and a history of goals in this fixture (last 10 in Milan averaged 4.2 ).
1.25 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket."
That ended 1-2 and with it any real interest in this season apart from the Champions League, it is all and only about this difficult two legged tie and it means everything to the club and coach. The competition was very kind to Seedorf as a player and he was the first in history to win it four times with three different clubs, twice with Milan, so it has a special place in his heart.
Since losing to Udinese, Milan are 2-1-1 in the league, with the loss coming at highflying Napoli, but that is kind of irrelevant ,it is all about 90 minutes tonight and giving themselves a result to take to Madrid on March 11th. A win , especially with a clean sheet would be great, but I suspect, despite Seedorf offensive minded philosophy that it is the clean sheet which will be paramount.
President Silvio Berlusconi attended training yesterday, just to make sure everyone knew the importance of the game, but that was hardly necessary. The San Siro is always a special place on big European nights and it is not a place you just come and get a result at, Barcelona and Ajax ( with Milan playing most of the game with 10 men) had to settle for a point here in the group stages (Celtic were defeated) and the home side are definitely more together as a group now.They can also forget about their upcoming league game, it is all and only about the Champions League.
Seedorf said yesterday:"Our growth is gradual. This is a unique and special match. There are other factors that influence the game. I'm happy with our week's work. The added value of this side is the team spirit and the bond between the different components that make up the team. We're going through a difficult time and these are the kind of matches to use the enthusiasm that we have to make things better and strengthen the group. My players will give me the responses that I expect. My Milan? Big words. We have a group that is working well. I'm trying to get everyone in the best condition possible to express themselves out on the pitch. The league table doesn't reflect the value of the squad."
His Atletico counterpart Diego Simeone doesn't have quite the same luxury and is also involved in a three way battle for the La Liga title, with two away games and a home match with neighbours Real, where defeat could be very costly, inbetween the two legs. Fixtures which are distracting.
We have spoken about the Atletico schedule and Simeone's dogmatic approach and refusal to back down, many, many times this season. Most recently last week ahead of the visit from their cross town rival in the Copa del Rey....
Atletico are looking to get back on track after losing the reverse fixture 3-0 last week and their lead at the top of the table over the weekend with a shock defeat at Almeria. They must do so without goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois (only league game he has missed in 16 months was the 2-0 defeat at Almeria on Saturday), midfielder Tiago ( 15-2-1 La Liga), striker David Villa (22-11-4), left back Filipe Luís Kasmirski (19-0-4) and much admired front man Diego Costa (22-20-4........Atletico have won 15/15 when he scores, just 3/8 without him) and obviously that will be tough.
I have rattled on and on about Atletico coach Diego Simeone's refusal to rest players, I said many times that it would come at a cost and now it has. Ahead of their Copa quarter final first leg with Athletic Bilbao, I wrote ....
I spoke about Atletico's involvement in this competition ahead of their trip to Valencia in the last round (link). They drew that match 1-1 , but progressed, albeit with a large slice of good fortune, over the two legs and now face two more tough games against highflying Athletic and I feel that Diego Simeone's absolute refusal to take even one half step backwards in any game, or to prioritise matches, is going to come at a very high cost, arguably, it already has, with points dropped in recent league games and cross town rivals Real, now well and truly back in the title race. I admire Simeone, but I think this approach, given his squad size and the bigger prizes on offer, has been,if not stupid, then naive.
Same old, same old this evening, with Simeone naming his strongest possible 18 for this game. I think this is their 32nd game of the season and many star names have only missed 2-3 of those and have had other (international) commitments and these are all big games, with the pressure that brings. Like PSG last night, this will come at a cost, somewhere down the line and the Parisians are at least rotating a little.
You just cannot fight on three fronts with a smallish squad and not rotate, it is and was crazy. This match is very difficult for the home side to prepare for, at 0-3 they have no chance to progress, their weekend game is absolutely vital, but their cannot just give up, neither can they afford to collect any further injuries.
They lost that 2-0, but did beat a struggling and poor travelling Valladolid at home over last weekend. But they are clearly not in the type of form they were a month ago and there is reason to believe the rigors of a very tough season are catching up with them.
Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti has spoken to and helped Seedorf with as much advice about Atletico as possible and that will be as valuable from a mind games point of view, as on the pitch. Like an end of season "must win" fixture, I do not think that team news is overly important tonight, passion, heart and desire will be the deciding factors, both teams have it, but it is season on the line time for Milan and I expect a big performance.
Simeone as a former Inter player ,is sure to get an especially warm welcome from home fans !
1.25 units AC Milan +0.25 ball 2.07 Asian line/Ibramarket.
Milan: Abbiati, Amelia, Coppola, Abate, Bonera, Constant, De Sciglio, Mexes, Rami, Zaccardo, De Jong, Emanuelson, Essien, Kakà, Poli, Balotelli, Pazzini, Petagna , Taarabt .
As always, free to view content is only meant as a sample of the full service and should be treated as such. There will be another free newsletter next week and in the meantime, I wish you good luck !