Day three of York’s Ebor Meeting sees the sprinters take centre stage with the five furlong renewal of the group one Nunthorpe Stakes, a race that in the past hasn’t just been dominated by British and Irish runners but is a contest that overseas trainers have successfully targeted.
Top US trainer Wesley Ward sent Acapulco to this race last year where it went off favourite and finished second and back in 2012 an Australian charge was led by Ortensia who claimed victory for trainer Paul Messara. Unfortunately, this year’s renewal doesn’t have such an international feel to it but never the less we’ll try our best to give you all you need to know to track down the winner.
The big news entering the race is that the connections of Limato have paid a hefty £30,000 sum to supplement the talented runner who will tackled five furlongs for the first time in its career. The horse started the season by running over a mile but connections feel the horse has the raw speed to take on the top sprinters and after winning well last time out in the group one July Cup over 6 furlongs at Newmarket they are taking a chance is taken over the minimum trip. Owner of Limato Paul Jacobs stated earlier that “The Breeders’ Cup is the main overseas option under consideration later in the year but there are also races in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong that are being discussed.”
Despite Limato’s entry the horse hasn’t been able to wrestle the mantle of favourite and market leader away from Clive Cox’s Royal Ascot winner Profitable. It’s hard not to take notice of the trainer who holds the horse in such high regard and is having a storming season already this year with three Group race wins from three starts over five furlongs this year. When upped to six furlongs at Newmarket last time out he ran with a lot of credit to finish fourth of eighteen behind rival Limato and is expected to do better over hs optimum trip. Cox subsequently stated: “Profitable is in excellent form. The Nunthorpe is looking like a race to savour and we are very much looking forward to it. We decided after Ascot that we would like to give him a run between then and the Nunthorpe.” “We gave him a break last year and he didn’t thrive on it, so we felt that it was in his best interest to have another run, being a Group 1 winner he would have carried a penalty in the King George at Goodwood over five furlongs so we took our chance in the July Cup over six. He ran with credit and you couldn’t say he didn’t stay, but he is more effective over five."
Last year’s winner Mecca’s Angel aims to retain her crown after returning back to form with a win over at The Curragh in Ireland. She had been quite disappointing for most of the season but got back to winning ways last time out, buoyed with confidence after her success Michael Dods (trainer) said "I'm just so pleased to see her fire again like that and I can't wait to get her back to York. She's had a nice break since Ascot and I think she'll improve for this." If the horse can return to her previous successes that she showed last year then its fantastic strike-rate at York could still remain for the locally trained mare.
Just like Limato two other horses have seen connections dig deep to pay the £30,000 supplementary fee in the form of Silver Rainbow and two year old Yalta. Mark Johnston said of his supplemented two year old "I think the Gimcrack will probably be overlooked and ground dependent and well-being dependent, he'll probably be supplemented for the Nunthorpe. He's a big, strong horse and was an early foal, so he's perhaps the ideal type." Johnston hopes that the heroics of Kingsgate Native can be emulated as another two year old aims to scoop the big Group 1 prize.
A horse at a bigger price that may be worth noting after a promising return to British soil where it picked up a decent third placed finish at Goodwood last time is Goldream. The seven year old finished fifth in this race last year and after a very promising run last time out trainer Robert Cowell seemed very pleased and a tad bullish about the horses chances. ”Goldream will be a runner if the ground is fast and I was absolutely delighted with how he ran at Goodwood. Having a race under his belt now, I think he's got a live chance wherever he shows up." If the ground suites and is on the faster side then the gelding could have a chance of upsetting the main protagonists.
With the race being run since 1958 it’s worth taking a look back at the recent race history to see if any trends can be spotted:
Key Trends (Last 10 Years)
Favourites: - Only 2 out of the last 10 favourites have won the race.
Age - Youngsters (2/3) have won 3 of the last ten runnings with older horses (4+) winning the majority with 7.
Stalls Draw - There’s no draw bias with an exact 50/50 split between the top half of the field and those drawn in the bottom half.
With the above in mind you ideally wanting to look away from the favourite at a horse that’s got some experience under its belt and where the horse is drawn seems to be pretty irrelevant.
The Ante Post Market
Over the past week the betting market has been quite active with the horses below either being supported or friendless in the betting.
Odds shortening
Limato 4/1 - 3/1
Muthmir 20/1 - 14/1
Drifting Horses
Meccas Angel 5/1 - 13/2
Brando 14/1 - 20/1
We are back tomorrow with a look at the Ebor, the richest handicap in Europe...
Best wishes,
The Cleeve team
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