Now that I posted my overly exhaustive early Best Picture contender list, it's time to, naturally, predict the other major categories. While Hollywood simply makes more films about men, by men, this year on paper, at least, appears to be a better year for women. And, as it stands, in the lead acting races, while the male list is slightly longer, the female side deeper in promise. What's also unusual is that a lot of these films with strong roles for ladies are actually written by ladies: Suffragette, Joy, Carol, The Danish Girl, Ricki and the Flash, Miss You Already, The Last Face, By the Sea, and Room. This is quite a sizable step forward, though only Suffragette and By the Sea are directed by women, along with Money Monster (Jodie Foster). But, as it were, if things hold up, this could be one of the tightest Best Actress races in years, which would be quite refreshing: too many possibilities and not enough slots. Part of the reason is because you have a lot of previous Oscar winners who have attractive vehicles coming out. It may come down to who has the most overall heat for their film. But, plenty of these options can do well both critically and commercially. For some reason, it's difficult to imagine Carey Mulligan winning an Oscar. Her film Suffragette doesn't sound like a huge commercial affair, and while she is respected, she hasn't reached the collective moviegoing conscience yet. However, she's getting raves on Broadway right now, could win a Tony this year, and she's a previous nominee who is incredibly talented. So, she's not off to a bad start. Also, she's in a sea of previous winners who don't exactly have any narrative for another Oscar just yet.
Best Actress
1. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
3. Julianne Moore, Freeheld
4. Cate Blanchett, Carol
5. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (supporting?)
6. Meryl Streep, Ricki and the Flash
7. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
8. Rooney Mara, The Secret Scripture
9. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
10. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
11. Emma Stone, Irrational Man
12. Drew Barrymore, Miss You Already
13. Sandra Bullock, Our Brand Is Crisis
14. Charlize Theron, The Last Face
15. Gugu Mbatha-Raw, The Free State of Jones
16. Angelina Jolie, By the Sea
17. Juliet Binoche, The Clouds of Sils Maria
18. Greta Gerwig, Mistress America
19. Lily Collins, Untitled Warren Beatty Project
20. Brie Larson, Room
It's rare for anyone to win back-to-back Oscars. Tom Hanks did in 1994, but, then, he was an international star, and Forrest Gump was one of the most successful films of the 1990s. And, by the end of the year, the race can and will change. But, as it is, recent AMPAS-winner Eddie Redmayne--whom the average American probably isn't even acquainted with--looks to be the frontrunner. He is playing a transgendered person, directed by Tom Hooper in a very sentimental, and audience-friendly script. DiCaprio is considered overdue by many, but his role doesn't scream anything that has won in the past. But, if Adam Jones is a huge hit, Cooper might win for his fourth nomination in-a-row.
Best Actor
1. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
2. Tom Hiddleston, I Saw the Light
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
4. Bradley Cooper, Adam Jones
5. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
6. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
7. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Walk
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition
9. Ian McKellan, Mr. Holmes
10. Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
11. Joaquin Phoenix, Irrational Man
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Free State of Jones
13. Warren Beatty, Untitled Warren Beatty Project
14. Thomas Mann, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
15. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
16. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Snowden
17. Brad Pitt, By the Sea
18. Will Smith, Concussion
19. George Clooney, Money Monster (supporting?)
20. Don Cheadle, Miles Away
21. Jake Gyllenhaal, Southpaw
22. Javier Bardem, The Last Face
23. Lee Pace, Icon
24. Robert Redford, Truth
25. Andrew Garfield, Silence
26. Matthew McConaughey, The Sea of Trees
27. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
S. Actress is full of possibilities, especially coattails.
Best S. Actress
1. Helena Bonham Carter, Suffragette
2. Ellen Page, Freeheld
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Diane Ladd, Joy
5. Olivia Cooke, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
6. Naomi Watts, Demolition
7. Elizabeth Olsen, I Saw the Light
8. Sienna Miller, Adam Jones
9. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (lead?)
10. Elisabeth Röhm, Joy
11. Vanessa Redgrave, The Secret Scripture
12. Virginia Madsen, Joy
13. Emma Stone, Irrational Man
14. Meryl Streep, Suffragette
15. Natalie Press, Suffragette
16. Toni Collette, Miss You Already
17. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
18. Dascha Polanco, Joy
19. Isabella Rossellini, Joy
20. Nicole Kidman, Genius
21. Julia Roberts, Money Monster
22. Kristen Stewart, The Clouds of Sils Maria
23. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
24. Jennifer Jason-Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Supporting Actor is by far the craziest category with few reliable contenders, at the moment.
Best S. Actor
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
2. Robert DeNiro, Joy
3. Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs
4. Christian Bale, The Big Short
5. Jude Law, Genius
6. RJ Cyler, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
7. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
8. Chris Cooper, Demolition
9. Joaquim de Almeida, Our Brand is Crisis
10. Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand is Crisis
11. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
12. Billy Magnussen, Bridge of Spies
13. Alan Alda, Bridge of Spies
14. Roger Allam, The Lady in the Van
15. Steve Carell, Freeheld
16. Michael Shannon, Freeheld
17. Édgar Ramírez, Joy
18. Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
19. Ben Foster, Icon
20. Josh Brolin, Everest
21. Jack O'Connell, Money Monster
22. George Clooney, Money Monster (lead?)
23. Eric Bana, The Secret Scripture
24. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
25. Bradley Cooper, Joy
26. Cillian Murphy, In the Heart of the Sea
27. Rick Springfield, Ricki and the Flash
28. Liam Neeson, Silence
29. Adam Driver, Silence
Best Director
1. Sarah Gavron, Suffragette
2. David O. Russell, Joy
3. Pete Docter & Ronaldo Del Carmen, Inside Out
4. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
5. Todd Haynes, Carol
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
7. Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
8. Peter Sollett, Freeheld
9. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
11. Nicholas Hytner, The Lady in the Van
12. David Gordon Green, Our Brand Is Crisis
13. Robert Zemeckis, The Walk
14. Marc Abraham, I Saw the Light
15. Jean-Marc Vallée, Demolition
16. James Sheridan, The Secret Scripture
17. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years
18. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
19. John Crowley, Brooklyn
20. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
21. Adam McKay, The Big Short
22. Michael Grandage, Genius
23. Gary Ross, The Free State of Jones
24. Woody Allen, Irrational Man
25. Peter Landesman, Concussion
26. Bill Condon, Mr. Holmes
27. Richard Linklater, That's What I'm Talking About
28. Jodie Foster, Money Monster
29. Martin Scorsese, Silence
30. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars
31. John Wells, Adam Jones
32. Jonathan Demme, Ricki and the Flash
33. Gus Van Sant, The Sea of Trees
34. Derek Cianfrance, The Light Between Oceans
35. Warren Beatty, Untitled Warren Beatty Project
36. Angelina Jolie, By the Sea
37. Sean Penn, The Last Face
38. Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
39. Stephen Frears, Icon
40. Oliver Stone, Snowden
41. Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Phyllis Nagy, Carol. In the early 1990s, the American moved to London and worked as a playwright under the artistic direction of Stephen Daldry and gone on to be quite prolific and well-respected in her field. Nagy won some awards for writing and directing Mrs. Harris from 2005 starring Annette Bening, while also getting two Emmy nominations. She adapted Patricia Highsmith's 1952 novel The Price of Salt. The book was a landmark in LGBT literature as it was the first book to present two gay characters in love realizing a happy ending. Quite revolutionary at the time.
2. Lucinda Coxon, The Danish Girl. The English Coxon has also made quite a name for herself as a playwright both stateside as well as in England. She also received some recognition for the British TV mini-series The Crimson Petal and the White from 2011 starring Romola Garai. She adapted the David Ebershoff novel from 2000 which presented a fictionalized depiction of Lili Elbe. The book won the Rosenthal Foundation Award, Lambda Literary Award, and was a finalist for the New York Public Library's Association Award, ad a New York Times Notable Book. It has been translated in ten languages.
3. Jesse Andrews, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl. Andrews adapted his own 2012 novel and helped deliver a Sundance darling.
4. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn. The English author is best known for his novels High Fidelity, and About a Boy, both of which were made into films and received award traction for their screenplays, the latter of which got an Oscar nomination. Hornby himself has gotten into the screenwriting business. In fact, his first effort, An Education, garnered himself an AMPAS nod, and last year's Wild came awfully close to getting him a second. Could he do so for adapting Colm Tóibín's novel Brooklyn? The book won the Costa Novel Award, and was long-listed for the Booker Prize.
5. Peter Straughan, Our Brand Is Crisis. The English playwright and author has been cited for both films Frank and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, the latter of which resulted in AMPAS and BAFTA nominations. Wikipedia reports the film is a "remake of the 2005 documentary film of sane name by Rachel Boynton," which dealt with the Greenberg Carville Shrum (GCS)--a political campaign conglomerate which involved itself in the 2002 Bolivian presidential election. It could be debatable whether this is designated as adapted or original, but, for the time being, I'll assume adapted.
6. Alan Bennett, The Lady in the Van. The English playwright, screenwriter, author, and actor adapted his own autobiographical play from 2000 (starring Maggie Smith, and directed by Nicolas Hytner) for the movie fifteen years later. Bennett is highly respected and has an endless list of credits. In 2000, Van was nominated for the Laurence Olivier Award for Best New Play, his second of three nominations. One was for The Madness of George III (his screenplay adaptation would garner him an Oscar nod), and the other for The History Boys, for which he won.
7. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs. West Wing creator Sorkin is no stranger to the awards game. In fact, he may have one of the best records out there. Aside from his genre thriller Malice in 1993, he has received a Globe nod for each of his screenplays. Two of them have gone on to get him Oscar nominations (he won for The Social Network). He adapted the Walter Isaacson Book for the movie.
8. Ron Nyswaner, Freeheld. He wrote the script that is based on the Cynthia Wade Oscar-winning documentary short. He also received several accolades and an Oscar nomination for Philadelphia over twenty years ago. He also won the NBR for The Painted Veil.
9. Adam McKay, The Big Short. Michael Lewis' book lasted 28 weeks on New York Times non-fiction bestseller list. McKay is an Emmy-nominated and WGA-winning SNL writer, and is mostly known for directing Will Ferrell movies. Could this be the project that gets people to take him more seriously?
10. Marc Abraham, I Saw the Light. He adapted the Colin Escott biography, and this would be his first feature script.
11. Mark L. Smith with revisions from Alejandro Gonzáles Iñárritu, The Revenant. From the Michael Punke novel. Smith wrote the two Vacancy films, and Iñárritu wrote Babel and Biutiful, but most notably Birdman.
12. Johnny Ferguson (BIF-nominated), Jim Sheridan, Gabriel Murray (script consultant), The Secret Scripture. Sebastian Barry's novel won the James Tait Black Memorial Prize, as well as the 2008 Costa Award, and being shortlisted for the Man Booker Prize for Fiction. Writer/director Sheridan has been nominated three times for screenwriting, the last time being in 2003 for In America.
13. John Logan, Genius. A. Scott Berg book Max Perkins: Editor of Genius won the National Book Award in 1978. Logan's Oscar nods: Gladiator, The Aviator, Hugo. He also wrote the screenplays for Sweeney Todd and Skyfall.
14. Simon Beaufoy, Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk. Based on the Ben Fountain novel. Beaufoy has been nominated for The Full Monty and 127 Hours, and won for Slumdog Millionaire. He also wrote the screenplays for Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and Everest.
15. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years. He made quite a splash with Weekend a few years ago, and just debuted his adaptation of David Constantine's short story at Berlin.
16. Robert Zemeckis, Christopher Browne, The Walk. Philippe Petit's To Reach the Clouds. Though, certainly, it was the 2008 Oscar-winning documentary Man on Wire that brought the book to interest. Zemeckis wrote a couple of cheap scripts in the late 1970s, but it was Back to the Future that put him on the map. He was nominated for an Oscar. His only other two major feature screenplays were two children's CGI films, A Christmas Carol and The Polar Express.
17. Jay Cocks, Silence. Over the last twenty-two years, Cocks has collaborated with Scorsese twice, and got nominated both times. He adapted the 1966 Shusaku Endo novel for the director.
18. Luke Davies, Lion. Davies was awarded Australian recognitions for adapting his own novel Candy in 2006. He adapted Saroo Brierley's novel A Long Way Home.
19. Jeffrey Hatcher, Mr. Holmes. Hatcher adapted Mitch Cullin's novel A Slight Trick of the Mind. Previous screenplays include The Duchess and Stage Beauty.
20. James Vanderbilt, Truth. Mary Mapes memoir. Vanderbilt, who is responsible for the scripts for the second generation Spider-man movies, received wide acclaim back in 2007 for writing Zodiac, which he received a WGA-nod.
21. Derek Cianfrance, The Light Between Oceans. The writer/director has shown at Sundance and Cannes. His Blue Valentine got Michelle Williams her second Oscar nomination in 2010. He adapted Australian M.L. Stedman's 2012 debut novel for his latest project.
22. Tom Stoppard, Tulip Fever. Based on Deborah Moggach's 1999 novel. The famous playwright has been nominated twice for Oscar, winning for 1998's Shakespeare in Love. His other major feature screenplays include Brazil, Empire of the Sun, The Russia House, and Billy Bathgate. Since Shakespeare in Love, he has also written the screenplays for Vatel, Enigma, and Anna Karenina.
23. John McNamara, Trumbo. McNamara is a TV producer/writer who first venture as a feature screenwriter was adapted Bruce Cook's 1977 biography on Dalton Trumbo.
24. Oliver Stone, Kieren Fitzgerald, Snowden. Based on Luke Harding's The Snowden Files and Anatoly Kucherena's Time of the Octopus. Fitzgerald wrote The Homesman, and three-time Oscar winner Oliver Stone, of course, had all kinds of accolades in the 20th-century.
25. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation. Fukunaga has risen in public consciousness thanks to True Detective, Season 1. In addition to writing Sundance winner Sin Nombre, he adapted the Uzodinma Iweala novella for this venture.
26. Charles Leavitt, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, In the Heart of the Sea. This adaptation of Nathaniel Philbrick's book is brought to you by the writers of such films as: Jurassic world, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, and Seventh Son.
Best Original Screenplay
1. Abi Morgan, Suffragette. Emmy and BAFTA-winning English playwright and TV/film screenwriter behind Shame, and The Iron Lady.
2. Pete Docter, Josh Cooley, Meg LeFauve, Inside Out. Docter was behind Up, and cowrote the screenplays for Toy Story, Monsters, Inc. and Wall*E as well.
3. Annie Mumulo, David O. Russell, Joy. Mumulo is a comedian who cowrote Bridesmaids with Kristen Wiig. It's very likely that Russell tinkered with her script like he did with American Hustle.
4. Steven Knight, Adam Jones. Knight directed the recent Locke, which he also wrote, but he is mainly known as the screenwriter for Dirty Pretty Things, and Eastern Promises. Jones will be a departure for him in a way as it's a Hollywood comedy-drama.
5. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight. Of course, Tarantino is well-established industry icon who created Pulp Fiction, Inglourious Basterds, and Django Unchained. Incidentally, out of all the accolades he received early on for Reservoir Dogs (which isn't unlike Hateful Eight), only the Sitges-Catalonian International Film Festival singled him out for the screenplay.
6. Bryan Sipe, Demolition.
7. Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies. The Coen brothers are a respected institution. Recently, they retooled the screenplay for Unbroken. It was an odd recipe that didn't pan out. Perhaps in the hands of Steven Spielberg, there is something more to consider in this sophomore effort of sorts.
8. Woody Allen, Irrational Man. Allen has been nominated sixteen times for screenwriting, having won on three of those occasions. You might say he's the Meryl Streep of screenwriters (who appeared in Manhattan decades ago and vowed to never work with him again). Only three of his nominations have been in the last fifteen years, so he has lost his mojo somewhat. However, his career as of late has been stronger than, say, the early 2000s. The log-line sounds like stereotypical Allen-fare that will go nowhere (college professor has affair with young, cute, student), and Joaquin Phoenix isn't the best omen. But, you never know.
9. Peter Straughan, Our Brand Is Crisis. See adapted.
10. Ron Nyswaner, Freeheld. See adapted.
11. Richard Linklater, That's What I'm Talking About. With Boyhood, Linklater is no doubt on AMPAS radar (Not that he wasn't having been nominated twice already from the Before series). But, with no big stars and being in the comedy genre, perhaps some discretion could be used in predicting this for anything.
12. Warren Beatty, Untitled Warren Beatty Project. Beatty isn't the most prolific artist these days. However, he has been nominated for four of his five screenplays. This film had to have been a pretty good reason to bring the Hollywood legend out of semi-retirement.
13. Enrico Casarosa, Bob Peterson, The Good Dinosaur. Oscar nominee for Best Animated Short, and storyboard artist for Ice Age, Ratatouille, and Up. The last two were cowritten by Bob Peterson, who was nominated for Up, as well as Finding Nemo.
14. Diablo Cody, Ricki and the Flash. Cody won for writing her first feature, Juno. Young Adult received strong reviews and developed some attention at the box-office. Flash is somewhere in between those two tone-wise. She isn't reinventing the wheel here. However, she is presenting a sympathetic view of a middle-aged female artist who made a choice in life that many view as probably ... unacceptable (even though it's not).
15. Gary Ross, The Free State of Jones. Ross was nominated for two of his first three screenplays (Big, Dave), and went on to write, produce, and direct Pleasantville, and Seabiscuit (twice-nominated here). This will be his first film since adapting and directing the box-office phenomenon The Hunger Games.
16. Noah Baumbach, Mistress America. Baumbach is a writerly director, and his script for The Squid and the Whale got him an Oscar nod. He received citations for Frances Ha and Fantastic Mr. Fox as well, and even Kicking and Screaming from when he first started out. His stories often run to darker edges that don't click with either The Academy or the mainstream. Yet, there is potential for him to one day break out when he takes on the right project. Only time will tell. Mistress had stellar reviews coming out of Sundance, but still feels similar to Frances Ha.
17. Thomas McCarthy, Josh Singer, Spotlight. McCarthy received an Oscar nod for cowriting Up, and received some pretty solid reviews for The Station Agent, The Visitor, and Win Win. All three of those last films won or was nominated for an ISA, as well as citations for the WGA. Agent won the Audience Award at Sundance. Singer hails from The West Wing and scripted The Fifth Estate.
18. John Hodge, Icon. Hodge has collaborated with director Danny Boyle on several efforts, and early on, Trainspotting got him an Oscar nomination. He hasn't been involved with Boyle's more baitier flics as of recent, but Stephen Frears isn't a bad director to be teamed with either.
19. Alan DiFiore, Jim Kouf, Jamie Linden (revisions), Money Monster. DiFiore is a well-regarded Canadian screenwriter, whose most recent contributions have been to the TV show Grimm. Kouf has also worked on that series, as well as is responsible for such forgotten 1980s classics as Class, Secret Admirer, and Stakeout. He also wrote Rush Hour. Linden gave us We Are Marshall, Dear John, and 10 Years.
20. Jeff Nichols, Midnight Special. Like Baumbach, Nichols strikes me as an artist that with the right project will resonate with the AMPAS big time. His profile continues to grow with both critics and audiences. Special is not unlike Close Encounters of the Third Kind. It's his most ambitious project to date. But, it just might be too cryptic, and not sentimental enough for AMPAS' taste.
21. Peter Landesman, Concussion. Based on a Jeanne Marie Laskas magazine article. Landesman's first feature was a critical and commercial flop. But, judging by his chosen subject matter, he seems to be geared towards AMPAS taste so far.
22. Erin Dignam, The Last Face. ISA-nominee.
23. Chris Sparling, The Sea of Trees. Writer behind Buried.
24. Don Cheadle, Steven Baigelman, Stephen J. Rivele, Christopher Wilkinson, Miles Ahead. Assisting Cheadle in his first feature screenplay, Baigelman scribed Get on Up, as well as the screenwriting team of 1995's Nixon. The latter team also wrote Ali.
25. Angelina Jolie, By the Sea. This will be Jolie's first English-language screenplay.
26. Kurt Sutter, Richard Wenk, Southpaw. Sutter is a writer from The Shield and Sons of Anarchy. Wenk has written a lot of action films.