So, even just a month later, I had to do some reshuffling and my changes for October are really a hot mess. I've kicked three films out of my Top Nine, and several, one of which is reentering as a top pick, made rather huge leaps--something I try to avoid. But, I'm hoping from here on out, the shifts will be minute. But, as far as what will get in has a lot to do with how many films Sony and TWC can keep out. The former has only just recently become a major player in the Oscar game again and it's highly questionable as to whether or not they can fit two films into the biggest race. Captain Phillips is off to a pretty decent start, yet it was American Hustle which, sight unseen (aside from a recent screening where little word has leaked out), is supposed to be its crown jewel for the awards season.
Meanwhile, I almost dumped all three TWC films I predicted from last month in favor of the only card Harvey Weinstein has left to play. I just have no idea what he's going to get behind at this point. At the moment, it *seems* like the directing/editing categories are out of his reach in 2013 for him. Seeing how he couldn't get The Master into the BP field last year, I'm guessing, with four candidates seemingly weaker than his two prize horses for 2012, he's going to be lucky to get two in this time around. But, which two? Basically, I think a valid argument can be made for all four of the movies, at this point; and it's all a bit of a crapshoot.
August: Osage County is the only one he's executive producing, and he hasn't dropped the ball on that role since 2009 with the deplorably bad Nine. August didn't get quite the reception he probably had hoped for out of TIFF, thought it wasn't outright panned either. The problem is that there were four other films from the festival which received a better overall reception (one of them his) that are probably making a run at Best Picture. It's also the least baitiest of his films. And, furthermore, there aren't a lot of categories he can land it in with a big push. Now, August starring Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts is a dark, but entertaining film, still faces a promising box-office with $50M - $60M, if we're lowballing it. In my dreams, it would be the type of film that audience would embrace, and give longer legs, but, alas, I don't believe that will be happening. It strikes me as perhaps a slightly more prestigious Steel Magnolias, another movie centered around mostly women based on a Broadway play (which, albeit, didn't win or get nominated for any Tony's like August did). Streep is its lynch-pin for a nom with an assist from Julia Roberts if Weinstein can category fraud her into supporting (but they could both get in for lead, or, more preposterously Roberts lands lead and Streep doesn't; or, gasp, they both fall short.). There's still hope for Tracy Letts, and, with a push, composer Gustavo Santaolalla. But, with a little backstage gossip floating around, this movie might end up shooting blanks.
Next up we have Lee Daniels' The Butler, a period film broadly detailing a snapshot of U.S. civil rights history, which is on track to grossing around $120M. This is also the only REAL period film Weinstein has on his plate this year. Sadly, I can see Weinstein either marketing this to Academy members as an "alternative" to 12 Years a Slave, or somehow piggybacking off of its imminent success. The only problem is its crappy critical reception. It's not that Oscar hasn't recognized lackluster movies before, but it's so technically bad on so many levels, there are few categories it could probably make it in with a push. But, with the title controversy, category limitations, and everything else, this just still seems to be like a train-wreck that ain't pulling into any stations except maybe Oprah Winfrey's. But, who really knows. Many major Oscar "experts" are calling it, with new ones hopping on. Perhaps it box-office success will speak more volumes for it than the higher grossing The Help.
The quiet Fruitvale Station has the reviews and critical appeal similar to Beasts of the Southern Wild from the previous year, but with the national debate on the Trayvon Martin case paralleling the film's themes, there were greater expectations placed on its ultimately satisfactory box-office performance. But, this is one film, despite not really caring for it, I would like to see through at least until awards start getting handed out. And, currently, its tied for the sixth highest MC score out of all the main BP contenders (and that's if you count Before Midnight and Blue Is the Warmest Color).
The true wildcard here, however, is Philomena. Dame Judi Dench's latest run at Best Actress (this will be her seventh nomination and sixth care of Weinstein if she gets in) may also be Weinstein's best shot at an Oscar win this year overall. Its rather subversively (in the grander scheme of things) making its rounds in the festivals and collecting great word-of-mouth while it's at it. Most everyone is pretty much underestimating it. It's probably running the stealthiest campaign this season. It strikes me as the type of film that floors everyone on nomination morning. And its release strategy is set up to capitalize on the very structure of the awards season: late limited year qualification, with an expansion targeted along the bigger award announcements. If Dench could legitimately win this year, it would be difficult to imagine that she didn't take some categories along with her while she's at it, given the reviews thus far, namely screenwriting, picture, and who knows what else. Predicting it now bucks all conventional wisdom (the lowest profile out of Weinstein's stead, the lightest fare, the least baity on paper, etc). But, Philomena came in second to BP-favorite 12 Years a Slave. Looking at past recipients and runner-up's of the People's Choice Awards at TIFF: Sliver Linings Playbook, Argo, A Separation (granted, over Moneyball, The Descendants, and The Artist), The King's Speech, Precious, Slumdog Millionaire, Juno, Hotel Rwanda, Amélie; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; American Beauty, Life Is Beautiful, Shine. You can go all the way back to Chariots of Fire to find films that, with the right campaign, were able to make it to the Best Picture Oscar, if not a nominee or close to being one. Not bad company. While Philomena isn't royalty, she's been compared to The Queen and The King's Speech. So, there's that. If she ends up pulling the carpet from underneath everyone, don't say I didn't tell you, but be sure to tell others you heard it here first.
There's also a duality in this year's race that I find some major Oscar "experts" are ignoring. For instance, while All Is Lost could sneak into the Best Picture field as many are still imagining, I take pause of its wonky MC start, as well as it overly comparable themes to Gravity. Being heralded as a technical achievement the silver screen has never seen, All Is Lost's mighty, but smaller scale accomplishments may be dwarfed by comparison. But, the fact that lead actor Robert Redford is being talked about, as well as some of the movie's technical categories, still keeps it a contender. Another set of films who had similarities sticking out (at least, for me) for quite some time is American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street. The dubious press the latter is receiving as it tries to make a 2013 deadline in the editing room has recently planted doubts in many, but I've been thinking for a while that two period, but somewhat contemporary films about con artists are just a little too close to comfort subject matter-wise. There's also two Tom Hanks movies offered this season.
One of the themes that I was pushing was that this was going to be the Year of the Black Narrative at the Oscars, with 12 Years a Slave leading the way. With TWC's internal competition, its mixed results, and the comparative passivity in Weinstein's leads in relation to many other Best Actor contenders getting great ink has been getting me to question the possibilities on this front. The fact that Philomena could end up being Weinstein main pony complicates matters further.
As far as my predictions this month, an assortment of Oscar "expert's" calls are included, with the struck-out entries being ones they've dropped since a month ago, along with their replacements added. Awards Circuit is also a new to this group.
1 (--). 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight). RD: 10/18 (limited). Rated R. Dir: Steve McQueen. Screenplay: McQueen, John Ridley from Solomon Northup's memoir. Cast: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong'o, Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, Quvenzhané Wallis, Dwight Henry, Sarah Paulson, and Taran Killam. Editor: Joe Walker. Composer: Hans Zimmer. Cinematographer: Sean Bobbitt. Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen (Moonrise Kingdom). Producers: Brad Pitt. Upcoming Festivals: NYFF, New Orleans, Chicago, Hamptons, Mill Valley. IMDb: 7.7 (0.8k users). RT/MC: 96/92.
AC (Awards Circuit), Scott Feinberg (THR), +TFE (The Film Experience, Nat Rogers), IC (In Contention), +ROS (Rope of Silicon)
2 (+2). Gravity (WB). RD: 10/4. Rated PG13. Dir: Alfonso Cuarón. Original Screenplay: Cuarón and brother Jonas. Editors: Cuarón, Mark Sanger. Composer: Steven Price. Cinematographer: Emmanuel Lubezki (Cuarón's longtime collaborator has been nominated five times without a win--twice for movies they've done together--being overlooked two years ago for The Tree of Life). Production Designer: Andy Nicholson. Costume Designer: Jany Temine (Skyfall, the Harry Potter franchise since Azkaban). IMDb: 7.9 (2.5k users). RT/MC: 95/96.
AC, Feinberg, TFE, IC, +ROS
3 (-1). Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS). RD: 12/ 6 limited (12/20 expansion). Rated R. Dir: Coen brothers. Screenplay: Loosely based on folksinger Dave Van Ronk's 2005 memoir The Mayor of MacDougal (finished posthumously by Elijah Wald). Cast: Oscar Isaac, Garrett Hedlund, Carey Mulligan, Adam Driver, John Goodman, and Justin Timberlake. Cinematographer: Bruno Delbonnel (Amélie, A Very Long Engagement, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince). Production Designer: Jess Gonchor (True Grit, Foxcatcher, The Lone Ranger). Costume Designer: Mary Zophres (True Grit). Producer: Scott Rudin, Coen brothers. Upcoming Festivals: NYFF, Hambur, Sao Paulo, Austin, Chicago. IMDb: 6.9 (0.8k users). RT/MC: 91/100.
AC, +IC, ROS
4 (+21). Philomena (TWC). RD: 12/25 (limited with 1/10 expansion). Dir: Stephen Frears. Adapted Screenplay: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope from Martin Sixsmith's The Lost Child of Philomena Lee. Cast: Judi Dench, Coogan, Sean Mahon. Editor: Valerio Bonelli. Cinematographer: Robbie Ryan. Production Designer: Alan MacDonald. Costume Designer: Consolata Boyle (The Queen). Producers: Tracey Seaward (The Queen), Coogan. Upcoming Festivals: Hawaii, Chicago. IMDb: 6.5 (0.1k users). RT/MC: 93/78.
5 (+6). Blue Jasmine (SPC). Released. Rated PG13. Dir: Woody Allen. Cinematographer: Javier Aguirresarobe (The Others). Production Designer: Santo Loquasto (longtime Allen collaborator nominated for three of his films). Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum (Midnight in Paris). IMDb: 7.8 (10k users). RT/MC: 91/78. Box Office: +$30.7M.
6 (--). American Hustle (Sony). RD: 12/13 limited (12/25 expansion). Dir: David O. Russell. Original Screenplay: Eric Singer and Russell. Cast: Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence. Cinematographer: Linus Sandgren (Promised Land). Production Designer: Judy Becker (O. Russell's last two films, as well as Brokeback Mountain). Costume Designer: Michael Wilkinson. Producers: Megan Ellison, Charles Roven (The Dark Knight).
AC, Feinberg, TFE, IC, ROS
7 (+2). Fruitvale Station (TWC). Released. Rated R. Director/Screenplay: Ryan Coogler. Cast: Michael B. Jordan, Octavia Spencer (also a coproducer), and Chad Michael Murray. Costume Designer: Aggie Guerard Rodgers (The Color Purple, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Pee Wee's Big Adventure). IMDb: 7.6 (174 users). Pros: TWC, Great festival reviews; appeals to audience's emotions, especially liberals. Cons: Smaller scale, potentially polarizing. Producer: Forest Whitaker. IMDb: 7.7 (5.3k users). RT/MC: 94/85. Box Office: $16M.
TFE
8 (-3). Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney). RD: 12/13 limited (12/20 expansion). Rated PG13. Dir: John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side). Original Screenplay: Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith. Cast: Emma Thompson, Tom Hanks, Colin Farrell, Annie Rose Buckley. Cinematographer: John Schwartzman (Seabiscuit). Production Designer: Michael Corenblith (How the Grinch Stole Christmas, Apollo 13). Composer: Thomas Newman (eleven times nominated, never won). Producers: Alison Owen (Elizabeth). Upcoming Festivals: AFI, Napa Valley.AC, +Feinberg, TFE, IC, ROS
9 (+10). Captain Phillips (Sony). RD: 10/11. Rated PG13. Dir: Paul Greengrass. Screenplay: Billy Ray. Cast: Tom Hanks. Editor: Christopher Rouse (The Bourne Ultimatum, United 93). Cinematographer: Barry Ackroyd (The Hurt Locker, United 93). Costume Designer: Mark Bridges (The Artist, P.T. Anderson and David O. Russell films). Producers: Scott Rudin, Michael De Luca (Moneyball, The Social Network), Dana Brunetti (The Social Network). IMDb: 5.9 (0.2k users). RT/MC: 100/82.
AC, Feinberg, TFE, +IC, ROS
10 (+17). Dallas Buyers Club (Focus). RD: 11/1. Rated R. Dir: Jean-Marc Vallée. Original Screenplay: Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack. Editors: Martin Pensa and Vallée. Cinematographer: Yves Bélanger. Production Designer: John Paino. Costume Designers: Kurt and Bart. Upcoming Festivals: Spain, Mill Valley. IMDb: 7.7 (0.3k users). RT/MC: 88/85.
TFE
11 (+3). Nebraska (Paramount). RD: 11/22 (limited). Rated R. Dir: Alexander Payne. Original Screenplay: Bob Nelson. Cast: Bruce Dern, Will Forte, June Squibb, Stacy Keach, Bob Odenkirk. Editor: Kevin Tent (The Descendants). Cinematographer: Phedon Papamichael (Walk the Line, The Pursuit of Happyness, The Ides of March, the Descendants, The Monuments Men). Production Designer: J. Dennis Washington. Costume Designer: Wendy Chuck. Producers: Albert Berger, Ron Yerxa (Little Miss Sunshine, Cold Mountain, Little Children, Election). Upcoming Festivals: NYFF, Rio, Hamburg, Austin, Milly Valley, Hamptons, Chicago. IMDb: 7.5 (0.3k users). RT/MC: 81/78.
+TFE, +IC
12 (-4). Lee Daniels' The Butler (TWC). Released. Rated PG13. Dir: Lee Daniels. "Adapted" Screenplay: Danny Strong from an article written by Wil Haygood. Cast: Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, Terrence Howard, and a list of stunt-casting long and dubious enough to give one an elongated pause. Editor: Joe Klotz (Precious, Rabbit Hole). Cinematography: Andrew Dunn (The Madness of King George, Precious). Costume Designer: Ruth E. Carter (Malcolm X, Amistad). Producers: Daniels, Laura Ziskin (her final film), Cassian Elwes (Dallas Buyers Club, Margin Call, Blue Valentine), and around forty other people (not kidding). Budget: $25M (filmed Summer 2012). IMDb: 6.6 (11k users). RT/MC: 73/66. Box Office: +$110.3M.
AC, Feinberg, +TFE, ROS
13 (--). The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount). RD: 11/15. Dir: Martin Scorsese. Screenplay: Terence Winter adaptated Jordan Belfort's memoir. Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Jonah Hill, Kyle Chandler, Jon Favreau, Jean Dujardin, Rob Reiner, Spike Jonze, Christine Ebersole, Fran Lebowitz, Margot Robbie, and Joanna Lumley. Editor: Thelma Schoonmaker. Composer: Howard Shore (Hugo, LOTR). Cinematographer: Rodrigo Prieto (Brokeback Mountain, Argo, Babel). Production Designer: Bob Shaw. Costume Designer: Sandy Powell. Producers: Scorsese, DiCaprio. Budget: $100M.
Feinberg, ROS
14 (+4). Rush (Universal). Released. Rated R. Dir: Ron Howard. Original Screenplay: Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon, The Queen). Editor: Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill (Apollo 13, etc.). Cinematographer: Anthony Dod Mantle (Slumdog Millionaire). Production Designer: Mark Digby. Costume Designer: Julian Day. Composer: Hans Zimmer. Producers: Ron Howard, Brian Grazer (Apollo 13, A Beautiful Mind, Frost/Nixon), Eric Fellner (Elizabeth, Atonement, Frost/Nixon, Les Misérables), Brian Oliver (Black Swan). IMDb: 8.4 (16k users). RT/MC: 88/74. Box Office: $10.6M.
IC
15 (+9). Mud (Lionsgate). Released. Rated PG13. Dir: Jeff Nichols. Producer: Sarah Green (The Tree of Life). IMDb: 7.5 (38k users). RT/MC: 98/76. Box Office: $21.6M.
16 (-4). All Is Lost (Lionsgate). RD: 10/18. Rated PG13. Dir: J.C. Chandor. Original Screenplay: Chandor. Cast: Robert Redford. Cinematographer: Frank G. DeMarco (Hedwig and the Angry Inch). Editor: Peter Beaudreau. Composer: Alex Ebert. Production Designer: John P. Goldsmith. Costume Designer: Van Broughton Ramsey. Precursors: The Old Man and the Sea, Castaway, Life of Pi. Upcoming Festivals: NYFF, London, Mill Valley. IMDb: 7.1 (0.3k users). RT/MC: 100/74.
AC, Feinberg, TFE, ROS
17 (-14). August: Osage County (TWC). RD: 12/25 (now limited). Rated R. Dir: John Wells. Adapted Screenplay: Tracy Letts from his play. Cast: Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Margo Martindale, Chris Cooper, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch, Juliette Lewis, Sam Shepard, Julianne Nicholson, Dermot Mulroney, and Abigail Breslin. Editor: Stephen Mirrione (Babel, Traffic). Composer: Gustavo Santaolalla. Cinematographer: Adriano Goldman (Jane Eyre, Sin Nombre). Production Designer: David Gropman (Life of Pi, The Cide House Rules). Costume Designer: Cindy Evans. Producers: Argonauts Clooney, Heslov, and Weinstein. Budget: $25M. Upcoming Festivals: Mill Valley, Chicago, Hawaii. IMDb: 6.5 (0.2k users). RT/MC: 64/67.
Feinberg, TFE, IC
18 (-2). Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects). RD: 10/25 (limited). Rated NC17. Dir: Abdellatif Kechiche. Upcoming Festivals: NYFF, Chicago, Mill Valley, Hamptons, Reykjavik. IMDb: 7.2 (1k users). RT/MC: 95/93.
19 (-4). Before Midnight (SPC). Released. Rated R. Dir: Richard Linklater. Screenplay: Linklater, Delpy, Hawke. Cast: Delpy, Hawke. Editor: Sandra Adair. Cinematographer: Lee Daniel. Composer: Fred Frith. Production Designer: Florian Reichmanm. IMDb: 8.3 (21k users). RT/MC: 98/94. Box Office: $8M.
ROS
20 (-13). The Monuments Men (Sony). Release Date: 12/18. Dir: George Clooney. Adapted Screenplay: Clooney, Grant Heslov from Robert M. Edsel book. Cast: Clooney, Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, John Goodman, Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, Jean Dujardin, Bob Balaban. Cinematographer: Phedon Papamichael (The Descendants, The Pursuit of Happyness, Walk the Line, Sideways). Composer: Alexandre Desplat (Argo, The King's Speech, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Queen). Production Designer: James D. Bissell (Good Night, and Good Luck., E.T.). Costume Designer: Louise Frogley (The Ides of March, Traffic). Producers: Clooney, Heslov.
ROS, IC
21 (-11). The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox). RD: 12/25. Dir: Ben Stiller. Cast: Stiller, Kristen Wiig. Editor: Greg Hayden. Composer: Theodore Shapiro. Cinematographer: Stuart Dryburgh (The Piano). Production Designer: Jeff Mann. Costume Designer: Sarah Edwards. Producers: Stiller, Samuel Goldwyn Jr (Master and Commander), John Goldwyn (I'm Not There). Upcoming Festivals: NYFF, Mill Valley.
AC, IC
22 (-1). Her (WB). RD: 12/18 limited with 1/10 add (pushed back from 11/22). Dir: Spike Jonze. An Annapurna production. Upcoming Festivals: NYFF, Hamptons.
TFE
23 (+11). Lone Survivor (Universal). RD: 12/27 (expansion 1/10). Rated R. Dir: Peter Berg. Cast: Mark Wahlberg, Taylor Kitsch, Ben Foster, Emile Hirsch, Eric Bana. Editor, Composer, Cinematographer, and Production Designer have never been nominated before. Producers: Akiva Goldsman (A Beautiful Mind), Barry Spikings (The Deer Hunter).
24 (-1). The Counselor (20th Century Fox). RD: 10/25. Rated R. Dir: Ridley Scott. Original Screenplay: Cormac McCarthy. Editor: Pietro Scalia (JFK, Good Will Hunting, Gladiator, Black Hawk Down). Cinematographer: Dariusz Wolski (Sweeney Todd). Production Designer: Arthur Max (Gladiator, American Gangster). Costume Designer: Janty Yates (Gladiator). Composer: Daniel Pemberton. Producers; Ridley Scott, Nick Wechsler (The Player).
25 (+8). Black Nativity (Fox Searchlight). RD: 11/27. Rated PG. Dir: Kasi Lemmons. Cast: Forest Whitaker, Angela Bassett, Jennifer Hudson, Tyrese Gibson, Mary J. Blige. Producer: William Horberg (Cold Mountain), Celine Rattray (The Kids Are All Right), and Sting's wife!
As of 9/19 Scott Feinberg was predicting Foxcatcher, which was moved shortly thereafter to 2014 (though, I've been very bullish about it not getting into the Best Picture race since May). In Contention has since dropped it. You may also note that I've included 12 Years a Slave in my Top Nine Since March.
Past 2013 Predictions:
September
July
May
March