Tis the season...NFL Mock Draft season! Things will definitely change as free agency unfolds and private workouts are broken down and over analyzed, but, before free agency Black Friday begins, here is how I see the draft playing out.
NFL Draft time may be my favorite time of the year, and perusing mock drafts is one of my favorite past time, current time, whatever time you want to call it.
As with any mock draft, the context as to how the picks are being made is crucial. So, before we get into the picks, here is the context (and disclaimers) as to how I constructed this mock draft:
l'll be predicting who I think each team will take – that may differ from who I think they should take.
I have yet to watch any film on any of the draft prospects. At this point in the process, all my knowledge on these prospects is based off games I have watched throughout the season and research I have done (sans game film).
Trades will occur on draft day and will inevitably change the way things shakeout on draft night. However, because trades cannot be predicted, I will operate as if each team will draft in their allotted position.
The doors of free agency are about to open and by the time teams finishing losing their minds stumbling over each other like crazed Black Friday shoppers, team needs will have changed – that is why I will be running multiple mock drafts leading up to the draft.
That being said, here is my 2015 NFL Mock Draft, 1.0 style…
1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jameis Winston
Pos:
QB
School:
Florida State
Analysis:
I feel the same way about Winston as I did with Manziel last year - with his maturity and off field issues, I wouldn't touch the guy with a 10 foot pole…but I'm not an NFL GM. NFL GMs will draft him, and whoever makes the first overall pick is likely to take Winston. From an on-the-field standpoint, Winston is the most NFL ready quarterback.
2
Tennessee Titans
Leonard Williams
Pos:
DE
School:
USC
Analysis:
The Titans need a quarterback, but they took Zach Mettenberger last year and I don’t think they are going to give up on him yet. Williams is the best player in this draft and I think the Titans are happy to be sitting here with Williams still on the board.
3
Jacksonville Jaguars
Amari Cooper
Pos:
WR
School:
Alabama
Analysis:
This will come as a surprise to most, but here is my reasoning. When you draft a quarterback high (like the Jaguars did with Blake Bortles) you need to surround him with talent. I know the Jaguars took two second round receivers in 2014 (Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson) who played decent as rookies, but neither appear to be difference makers. I believe Cooper is a difference making receiver. However, if the Jaguars get word that Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville's 2012 first round pick, will be reinstated in 2015, this pick will change.
4
Oakland Raiders
Kevin White
Pos:
WR
School:
WVU
Analysis:
This plays out perfect for the Raiders. Regardless of whether Cooper is still on the board or not, I believe the Raiders go with Kevin White. No team likes speed and measurables as much as the Raiders and White has speed and measurables that impress.
5
Washington Redskins
Randy Gregory
Pos:
OLB
School:
Nebraska
Analysis:
With Brian Orakpo's return to Washington unlikely, they have an opening at OLB opposite Ryan Kerrigan. Gregory is a lengthy defender who fits as an OLB in a 3-4 defense and seems an ideal fit for Washington.
6
New York Jets
Marcus Mariota
Pos:
QB
School:
Oregon
Analysis:
I do not believe the Jets stay in this position, but if they do, I think new head coach, Todd Bowles, takes Mariota. Geno Smith is from the old regime in New York and has not shown any indication that he is "the guy" and therefore I don't see a new coach hitching his wagon to Smith. Some may have a concern with whether Mariota can run an NFL offense, but I like everything about this kid on and off the field. He is 6'4", athletic and accounted for 58 touchdowns (42 passing, 15 rushing, 1 receiving) and just 7 turnovers (4 INT, 3 fumbles) in 2014. Compare that to Winston's 28 touchdowns (25 passing, 3 rushing) and 20 turnovers (18 INT, 2 fumbles).
7
Chicago Bears
Danny Shelton
Pos:
DT
School:
Washington
Analysis:
With John Fox at the helm, the Bears are going to be running a 3-4 in 2015 and they need a 3-4 NT. Shelton fits that bill and will be a solid NT in the NFL. I think Shelton would be an excellent fit for the Bears.
8
Atlanta Falcons
Shane Ray
Pos:
DE
School:
Missouri
Analysis:
The Falcons were dead last in yards allowed in 2014, so it is safe to say they will be looking defense early and often in the 2015 draft. Only the Bengals (20) had less sacks than the Falcons (22) and this is a great draft to be looking for pass rushers. I think the Falcons are very happy to see Ray still on the board when they pick.
9
New York Giants
Brandon Scherff
Pos:
OT/OG
School:
Iowa
Analysis:
The Giants could go a couple routes here, including receiver, but they really need some help along the offensive line and they have a chance at the top lineman in the draft. Scherff may not be a left tackle in the NFL, but he can be a solid right tackle or very good guard.
10
St. Louis Rams
DeVante Parker
Pos:
WR
School:
Louisville
Analysis:
The Rams still don't have a long term answer at quarterback, but they aren't going to find their answer in the first round of this draft, so the next best thing is to give more weapons to the quarterbacks they do have. Parker has the potential to be a big time receiver and has even garnered some comparisons to A.J. Green.
11
Minnesota Vikings
Trae Waynes
Pos:
CB
School:
Michigan State
Analysis:
The Vikings would love to see one of the top four receivers available here, but in this scenario, they are all off the board and 11 is a little high for any of the other receivers. But, the Vikings are excited to get the top corner in the draft and with the receivers in the NFC North, this is a great pick.
12
Cleveland Browns
Andrus Peat
Pos:
OT
School:
Stanford
Analysis:
Speaking of teams that are bummed to see the top four receivers off the board, the Browns really need a receiver. They could take a chance on Dorial Green-Beckham, but after the Josh Gordon fiasco over the past 12 months, I doubt the Browns are willing to take that chance...but they are the Browns, so you never know. Without a worthy receiver, the Browns address their offensive line with Peat, a guy that many think will be the best tackle in this draft.
13
New Orleans Saints
Vic Beasley
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