Sunday dawned mostly sunny and cool on the Cape and Islands, with a gusty east wind and temperatures in the 60s. The first few visible satellite images of the day showed Hermine sitting several hundred miles east of the Mid-Atlantic, looking a bit more like a winter nor’easter than a summer hurricane.
The system, as of 8AM, was still moving eastward at around 12 mph but is still expected to slow down and eventually turn toward the north this afternoon, and then drift north and northwestward tonight and Monday. Likewise, Hermine is still expected to re-organize over the next 12 to 24 hours, strengthening a bit as it feeds off of the warm Gulf Stream waters and getting a bit of an assist from some upper level jet stream energy.
For us here in far Southeastern New England, the going forecast remains on target with respect to Hermine’s impacts. Here’s the latest thinking:
Sunshine this morning will slowly lose out to advancing clouds over the course of the day, with skies trending toward overcast as we approach sundown. East and northeast winds will freshen this morning and continue to strengthen as we move through the afternoon, increasing to 15 to 25 mph sustained with some gusts over 30 mph likely.
Skies will become cloudy tonight and we may have some patches of mist or drizzle rotating in off the ocean but any rain should hold off until we approach sunrise. Temperatures will be in the 60s but it will feel rather chilly as east and northeast winds continue to ramp up, averaging 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph and better expected after midnight and especially as we get into the pre-dawn hours.
The nastiest of the weather is likely tomorrow as deeper moisture from Hermine pivots onshore, yielding off and on rain and periods of wind-swept drizzle and mist. Given the tropical nature of the atmosphere, some downpours are a good bet now and then and we should see some beneficial rains, with as much as 1 to 2 inches possible by the time the system releases its grip on our area.
Winds will continue to blow from the east and northeast through the day on Monday, averaging between 20 and 30 mph, with some gusts better than 40 mph expected at times. It’s certainly possible that parts of the Outer Cape, Martha’s Vineyard and especially Nantucket gust to 45 to 50 mph. Nantucket is likely to take the brunt of the storm (relatively speaking) and has the best chance of recording wind gusts to 50 mph. In fact, if the system wobbles a bit closer to the area, gusts to 60 mph would be in reach on the Island.
The combination of rain, fully-leafed trees and wind gusts to 40 mph or better at times is likely to yield some isolated to scattered pockets of limb damage and maybe an uprooted tree here or there. As a result, a few short-lived power disruptions are a possibility on Monday around the area – but widespread, long-lasting power outages are not anticipated.
Wind and rain will continue into Monday night and through the day on Tuesday, though wind gusts should come down after peaking during the day on Monday.
Storm surge and resultant coastal flooding is not looking like a serious problem at this point for our area; however, some pockets of beach erosion are a good bet and some areas of minor coastal flooding could develop around high tide very late tonight and again early Monday afternoon. Nantucket stands a higher chance of seeing erosion and pockets of flooding at high tide. Regardless, large waves will certainly impact area beaches and those brave enough to venture into our chilly ocean waters when the weather is nice, are urged not to do so over the next couple of days.