The labor market looks tight everywhere the Federal Reserve turns.
Its latest Beige Book released Wednesday contained anecdotes from its 12 districts on their regional economies.
Most places noted that the gap between the number of jobs and people available to work was shrinking, meaning the labor markets were tightening.
More demand for workers also meant modestly higher wages, according to the Fed's districts. Markets like Richmond and Atlanta reported higher wages for lower-skilled workers, while minimum-wage pressures were felt in San Francisco.
The wage pressures came as overall economic growth trudged along. From April through mid-May, the districts' economies grew modestly at best, while Chicago and Kansas City slowed.
It's not a hard data release, but the Beige Book gives us a sense of what is informing the Fed's outlook on consumer spending, the housing market, manufacturing, inflation and other key areas.
Market expectations are mounting that at that meeting, the Fed could judge the economy strong enough to warrant its first interest-rate increase this year.
Here's the full text of the Beige Book:
Information received from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts mostly described modest economic growth since the last Beige Book report. Economic activity in April through mid-May increased at a moderate pace in the San Francisco District, while modest growth was reported by Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis. Chicago noted that the pace of growth slowed, as did Kansas City. Dallas reported that economic activity grew marginally, while New York characterized activity as generally flat since the last report. Several Districts noted that contacts had generally optimistic outlooks, with firms expecting growth either to continue at its current pace or to increase.
Consumer spending was up modestly on balance in many Districts, though contacts in the Boston, Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts reported mixed or flat activity, and New York reported weakened sales. Many Districts reported modest growth in nonfinancial services. Manufacturing activity was mixed across Districts. Construction and real estate activity generally expanded since the last report, and the overall outlook among contacts in these industries remained positive. Overall loan demand was up moderately in all but one of the Districts that reported it, and many Districts reported steady to good credit availability. Crop conditions were promising in many Districts, but low commodity prices continued to put pressure on agricultural incomes. The energy sector remained weak. Employment grew modestly since the last report, but tight labor markets were widely noted; wages grew modestly, and price pressure grew slightly in most Districts.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending and tourism activity was up modestly in many Districts, though contacts in the Boston, Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts reported mixed or flat activity. With respect to retail sales, only the New York District reported weakened sales in April and early May. The Boston, New York, and Philadelphia Districts indicated that cool spring weather dampened sales relative to the same time last year. Retailers across many Districts reported increased competition from online sales, citing a shift in consumer preferences away from in-store shopping. Luxury and premium product sales were notably subdued in the Richmond, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts since the last report. The tourism and hospitality sectors saw mixed activity in New York and Minneapolis, while Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Francisco experienced improved activity. Contacts in the Atlanta, Richmond, and St. Louis Districts indicated that hotel and hospitality bookings were higher than a year earlier.
Among Districts that reported new and used auto sales activity, sales were steady in April and May, with the exception of Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City, where a slight decline was reported. Dealers in the Chicago District reported a rise in new and used light vehicle sales. But overall, truck and large vehicle sales outpaced auto sales across many Districts. In Cleveland, motor vehicle sales grew 1 percent over a year ago, with light trucks and SUVs dominating purchases. Dealers in the Richmond District reported that light truck sales were especially strong. Luxury vehicle sales were mixed; Cleveland reported weakened demand, whereas Chicago reported a shift upward in demand. Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Dallas reported an optimistic outlook for annual auto sales in 2016, due mostly to low gas prices.
Nonfinancial Services
Since the previous report, many Districts, including New York, Richmond, St. Louis, and Minneapolis, reported modest growth across many nonfinancial services, whereas San Francisco indicated that growth was moderate. Philadelphia indicated no significant change in the modest pace of growth since the last report, characterizing the services economy as "disappointingly stable," according to a contact. New York contacts noted a steady rise in activity in April and early May. The Minneapolis, Kansas, and Dallas Districts reported an expansion in the technology and professional services sectors. Minneapolis and Dallas also reported expansion in the health care sector. Boston District contacts in the staffing services sector characterized activity as strong. In contrast, contacts in the Cleveland District reported that transportation services declined, with railroad activity down by as much as 35 percent from the same time last year. The Kansas City District also reported declines in transportation-related activity and capital spending. The Richmond District characterized transportation services, such as trucking and airport activity (both passenger and cargo), as "uneven" and "flat to slightly stronger." Contacts in both the Richmond and St. Louis Districts reported optimism for the coming months for some nonfinancial services sectors.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity was mixed across Districts in April through mid-May. Richmond reported that activity increased on balance, and Atlanta noted that it remained strong. Reports indicated a modest increase in manufacturing output in Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis, and the manufacturing sector in Dallas grew slightly. Activity was flat in San Francisco and fell in New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City. The outlook for manufacturing improved since the last report in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Kansas City; outlooks in Boston and St. Louis were also positive.
District reports portrayed mixed growth across industries within manufacturing. Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Minneapolis noted increased demand for construction materials or equipment, but Dallas reported that among construction-related manufacturers, demand was mixed over the reporting period and slightly down from a year earlier. Metal manufacturers in the Richmond District indicated that new orders had risen, Chicago reported growth in steel demand, and producers in Cleveland were encouraged by an increase in domestic steel prices but reported little change in demand. San Francisco noted that steel producers benefited from reduced overseas competition, but contacts reported somewhat weak demand for other manufactured metals. Philadelphia and Dallas also cited weakness in primary metals. Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago, and Dallas reported weakness tied to reduced demand from the energy sector.
Construction and Real Estate
Construction and real estate activity generally expanded since the last report, and the overall outlook among contacts remained positive. Commercial construction activity increased in Philadelphia, Richmond, and Minneapolis. Strong project pipelines were reported in Cleveland, and some contractors in Atlanta noted one- to two-year backlogs. An uptick in industrial construction was cited in St. Louis, while activity was varied across markets in Boston. Residential construction increased in most Districts but was mixed in Richmond and Dallas, where some markets saw a decline in single-family construction. In Chicago, a slight increase in residential construction was concentrated in single-family and suburban markets. St. Louis contacts reported an uptick in residential construction, and many contacts expected a similar increase next quarter. Multifamily construction continued to grow in many Districts, including New York, St. Louis, and Dallas, but a slowing was noted in Atlanta. In San Francisco, construction of multifamily units continued to outpace single-family units. In Boston, apartment construction remained very active, but related lending slowed among smaller banks.
Commercial real estate activity increased in most Districts that reported. Absorption of space increased in Atlanta and Kansas City, while Dallas reported healthy demand for office space. A decline in vacancy rates and a rise in rents were noted in Chicago and Minneapolis. Contacts in San Francisco said demand for commercial real estate expanded further, particularly in urban areas with robust technology and health care industries. Residential real estate activity increased moderately across most Districts. Home sales were strong in Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Residential sales were positive but somewhat lower in other Districts. Sales for entry-level and other lower-priced homes were particularly strong, according to Chicago and Dallas contacts. Lower inventories of homes were reported by contacts in New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Minneapolis and have led to bidding wars in the Richmond District and constrained home sales in Philadelphia. Home prices were reported higher overall; Cleveland contacts said that home prices rose 3 percent year over year. In Philadelphia, home prices were mixed across markets and price categories.
Banking and Finance
Overall loan demand was up moderately in all Districts that reported, with the exception of Dallas. Commercial and industrial loans were up in Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City. Contacts in the Atlanta District indicated that there was strong loan demand, except for the energy industry. In the Chicago District, business loan demand changed little from the previous report. Residential mortgage lending was up in the New York, Richmond, St. Louis, and San Francisco Districts. The Dallas District reported that overall lending was mixed, whereas the Philadelphia District reported that mortgages and home equity loans were down since the prior reporting period. Bankers in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Dallas Districts reported seeing increased activity in auto lending. The St. Louis and San Francisco Districts reported improved credit quality. Contacts in the New York and Cleveland Districts reported lower delinquency rates on the consumer side. Banking contacts from the Atlanta District indicated an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Crop conditions were promising in many Districts, but low commodity prices continued to put pressure on agricultural incomes. Favorable weather got the growing season off to a solid start in St. Louis and Minneapolis and improved production prospects in Dallas. However, wet, cool weather in the Chicago District put planting behind the pace of last spring, and rain delayed planting and harvesting of some crops in parts of the Richmond District. In contrast, parts of the Atlanta District were experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions. Though prices for some commodities such as soybeans and hogs have increased recently from their low points, most crop and animal product prices remained below their year-earlier levels. Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City noted that prices were below profitable levels for some producers.
The energy sector remained weak since the previous Beige Book. Oil drilling continued to decrease in Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas. While natural gas drilling was little changed over this reporting period in Cleveland, demand was rising and output in that District remained at historic highs; natural gas extraction increased in Richmond since the previous report. Coal production was unchanged in Richmond, but fell in St. Louis and Kansas City. Contacts in Cleveland and Dallas expressed optimism that prices for natural gas and oil, respectively, may have bottomed out.
Employment, Wages, and Prices
Employment grew modestly since the last report, but tight labor markets were widely noted in most Districts. Demand for labor rose moderately in Richmond, and contacts noted continued difficulty finding workers in numerous occupations. In Boston, staffing industry contacts observed robust labor demand, particularly for specialized workers in high-skill fields. Contacts in Atlanta and Richmond said high-skill workers in high-demand fields continued to be hard to find, and low-skill jobs were also becoming harder to fill. In St. Louis, contacts that reported having trouble filling job vacancies primarily cited few applicants or candidates lacking the necessary skills. In New York, employment grew modestly, and manufacturing and services firms planned to add jobs in the months ahead. Soft labor markets were reported in energy sectors in Cleveland, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas.
Wages grew modestly since the last report, with increases concentrated in areas of labor tightness. Higher wages were reported for entry-level and lower-skill positions in Richmond and Atlanta. In San Francisco, minimum wage increases pushed up wages for low-skilled workers, with diminishing effects up the pay scale. Atlanta, St. Louis, and San Francisco reported wage pressure for certain high-skilled employees. In New York, a sizable share of service-sector contacts reported higher wages. In St. Louis, more than two-thirds of hiring managers reported increasing wages and salaries by more than they had in the past few years to retain employees and attract new ones. However, in Kansas City, contacts in several industries reported only slight increases in wages and expected similar increases going forward. Wage pressure was minimal in the Dallas District, due in part to compensation at energy services firms that was steady to lower for staff that have been retained.
Price pressure grew slightly in most Districts. Multiple Districts noted small price increases in building materials, including concrete and steel. Contacts in Cleveland reported higher construction prices to cover rising worker costs resulting from tight labor markets. The majority of contacts in Philadelphia reported no significant change in input costs or customer prices. In New York, contacts in manufacturing and services cited little change in selling prices but moderate upward pressure in costs. In Kansas City, retail prices rose moderately and were expected to increase further. In San Francisco, growing competition from expanding online retailers held down price growth for most retail grocery products; apparel contacts there also reported significant price discounting. The outlook for prices was moderate; survey respondents in Philadelphia and Atlanta expected inflation of about 2 percent over the coming year.
First District--Boston
Business contacts cite generally improving economic conditions across the First District. Most retail and manufacturing respondents report increasing sales or revenues from a year earlier; this represents a higher fraction compared with six weeks ago. Staffing services firms are seeing growth in placements and revenues. Commercial and residential real estate respondents both cite positive results. Many respondents have net hiring plans and are raising wages modestly for selected existing employees and to recruit in some positions. Contacts continue to report minimal price pressures. Outlooks are generally upbeat as firms expect "more of the same."
Retail
Retail contacts in this round report that sales results for April through mid-May range from a slight single-digit decrease to growth in the mid-to-upper single digits. One firm notes that its lower sales were weather-related: demand for seasonal items was depressed by the atypically cool spring weather in New England. By contrast, another contact cites increased customer traffic, while a third is seeing "more stability" in sales after observing a lot of daily and weekly volatility over the past six months. Some respondents say that consumer spending patterns are changing: Besides the increasing shift to online sales, they cite the aging of the Baby Boom as a partial explanation for lower observed demand for apparel and other retail goods accompanied by increased spending on restaurants and travel.
Inventories are well-managed. Some contacts have raised inventories to meet expected continuing sales growth and demand for warm-weather items. One retailer is pushing orders ahead in anticipation of China's shut-down of regional factories for six to eight weeks to control pollution before holding the G20 summit in early September. Wholesale prices remain steady, so retail prices are fairly flat, though prices for some items for fall will be up by a few percent. Most retail contacts are engaging in capital spending related to business expansion and IT technology. Overall expectations for 2016 are positive, as contacts say the U.S. economy is in a moderate growth cycle, bolstered by increasing employment and growth in housing starts. They anticipate that these conditions will support same-store sales growth in the low-to-mid single digits.
Manufacturing
Of 11 manufacturing firms contacted this cycle, only one reports declining sales. The latter firm--a maker of brakes and motors for machinery--attributes the decline to the effect of lower commodity prices for mining, oil and gas, and agriculture, with no signs yet of effects of the recent rebound in oil prices. Many contacts report a very strong first quarter, including manufacturers of pressure sensitive film, veterinary products, tools, and scientific equipment, as well as a diversified maker of jet engines and home HVAC systems, among other things. Several contacts indicate that the growth came after a soft second half of 2015 or that first quarter sales were much stronger than expected. For most respondents, the U.S. was a bright spot; Europe was not as strong, although not declining as in some earlier reports. Contacts note that Chinese growth has slowed but is still positive; the only problem area appears to be Latin America, in general, and Brazil, in particular.
The pricing environment appears benign. Not one of our contacts reports significant price pressure from suppliers nor do they feel that they can increase the prices paid by customers. Exchange rates remain a problem for contacts, with 5 of the 11 noting the strong dollar has lowered their revenues or is a "headwind" for them; a couple of these respondents, however, say the negative impacts are weakening.
Inventories are stable or reflect planned increases or decreases. The one contact with declining sales says there had been destocking in the fourth quarter but "nothing like 2009."
None of our contacts reports significant revisions to their employment plans. A manufacturer of mail-room equipment says they reduced staff, but the reduction reflects planned efficiency improvements and not any reduction in demand. Two contacts report regional shifts. A diversified manufacturer reports moving divisional headquarters out of New England at least partly because of the high cost of labor in the region. Another is expanding production in Nebraska instead of Massachusetts due to the lower cost of labor. Three contacts report having difficulty finding skilled technical and scientific workers. No firm reports significant revisions to their capital expenditure plans. Even the firm with declining sales has not changed its investment plans.
The outlook is positive for all respondents. The firms that had very strong first quarters are trying to figure out if it represents a trend. The tool manufacturer says that retail point-of-sale data show consistent strength and no sign of tapering, but they will not change plans without additional positive evidence. A manufacturer of semiconductor equipment says that some growth was tied to the introduction of new smartphones and questions whether the smartphone market has reached saturation and therefore will not generate such strong growth in the future.
Staffing Services
New England staffing services contacts generally report strong business activity through May, with upticks in both direct hires and temporary placements, and year-over-year revenue increases ranging from 1 to 35 percent. Contacts observe an increase in underlying business confidence in recent months, along with heightened market competition for workers. As a result, workers reportedly have more choices in jobs and starting salaries. Labor demand continues to be robust, with increased client demand for specialized workers in the internet technology, software, legal, medical, mechanical engineering, business services, and management consulting sectors. Workers with less specialized or non-technical skills are less in demand. Contacts report that labor supply decreased in recent months, which they attribute to a decline in overall unemployment, as well as some mismatch of skills between labor supply and demand. Firms are utilizing social media and referral networks, and offering sign-on bonuses in order to recruit job candidates. Both bill and pay rates increased from 3 to 10 percent year-over-year. Firms are reportedly recognizing the need to pay higher wages to attract top talent, and workers are negotiating higher starting salaries. Looking forward, contacts are optimistic, expecting steady sequential and year-on-year growth. They expect to end the year with year-over-year revenue increases in the low to mid-single-digit range.
Commercial Real Estate
Contacts report that commercial real estate leasing activity is steady or improving across the First District. Hartford saw a surge in industrial leasing in recent weeks and steady, if light, office leasing activity. Office leasing picked up in Providence following a slow first quarter, and rental rates in that city are seen as stable. Boston's office leasing environment remains strong, yielding further declines in vacancy rates, although tenants appear reluctant to commit to new leases on the most expensive spaces. Portland continues to see strong leasing demand across all commercial property types and rents are described as stable. Investment sales are steady in Boston, Portland, and Hartford, although the bidding environment remains less exuberant in Boston than it was a year ago.
Construction activity remains limited in Hartford, as prospects for retail developments dim; nonetheless, industrial construction may be warranted in the Hartford area in coming months, following the recent robust leasing activity. Office construction continues to increase in Boston but remains below normal relative to fundamentals. Construction is modest in Rhode Island but is set to increase later in the year based on planned infrastructure projects. Apartment construction remains very active in Boston. However, contacts say lending for apartment construction is slowing among the region's smaller banks as they seek to stay within their own pre-set limits on that sector's loan allocation. Contacts across the District are mostly optimistic that commercial real estate activity will hold steady or improve in coming months, although one Boston contact notes the risk of a modest slowdown in office leasing.
Residential Real Estate
Residential real estate markets in the First District continue to exhibit strong trends at the end of the first quarter of 2016. March closed sales of single-family homes increased year-over-year in all six New England states; in Vermont, April data show a slight decrease. Massachusetts saw the most closed sales in any March since 2004. Pending sales for single-family homes increased year-over-year in every state, with gains as large as 36 percent in the Boston area. Most contacts note that these increases are not surprising given the mild winter relative to last year; some, however, say the momentum was even more than expected. A contact in Rhode Island reports, "we had far and away more sales than we've seen at this time of the year for quite some time." Median sales price also increased year-over-year in March in every state except Vermont.
The market for condominiums also improved relative to last year, with closed and pending condo sales up in every First District state in March (April for Vermont). Median condo prices showed moderate increases year-over-year in five states; the only exception was Connecticut where condo prices decreased.
Inventory continues to be an issue throughout the First District. Inventories of both single-family homes and condos decreased year-over-year in every state that reports these data. A Rhode Island contact comments that low inventories put sellers "in the driver's seat" in the bidding process. A contact in Massachusetts echoes previous comments that construction is too low to meet increasing demand from buyers. One notable exception to the inventory declines was the Boston area, where inventories of both single family homes and condos increased year-over-year; one contact hypothesizes that this is due to mild weather allowing sellers to put their homes on the market sooner this year than last.
Overall, contacts have a strong outlook for residential real estate markets. Several cite other economic indicators such as the stable unemployment rate, rising wages, and low interest rates as drivers of growth. Two contacts specifically note that although demand is strong, buyers are approaching the market more cautiously and avoiding risk.
Second District--New York
Economic activity in the Second District has been generally flat since the last report, while labor markets remain tight. Selling prices are reported to be little changed, though contacts note continued upward pressure on input prices and wages. Manufacturers report renewed contraction in activity, while service-sector businesses indicate steady to modestly rising activity. Consumer spending weakened, and tourism activity has been sluggish. Residential real estate markets were mixed but on balance softer, while commercial real estate markets were steady to slightly stronger. Finally, banks report further strengthening in loan demand and improvement in delinquency rates.
Consumer Spending
Retailers report that sales weakened in April and remained soft in early May, with same-store sales down moderately from comparable 2015 levels and below plan. Contacts in both upstate New York and the New York City metro region note that unseasonably cool weather contributed to the weak sales performance, though it was not the predominant factor. Retailers report that inventories are on the high side--particularly for warm weather apparel--and note more price discounting than usual. The trend toward on-line shopping has continued to constrain traditional retail sales.
New vehicle sales in upstate New York are reported to be steady at a fairly high level in April, though there were scattered signs of softening in early May. Inventories of new vehicles are reported to be somewhat on the high side for this time of year. Sales of used vehicles were also described as steady in April with some signs of a pickup in May. While credit conditions generally remain in good shape, one contact notes some tightening at the low end.
Tourism activity has been mixed but generally sluggish. Hotels in both New York City and across parts of upstate New York indicate that occupancy rates and revenue per room have been running below comparable 2015 levels. Similarly, attendance and particularly revenues at Broadway theaters have softened a bit in recent weeks but remain slightly ahead of a year earlier. The Conference Board's April survey shows consumer confidence in the Middle Atlantic states (NY, NJ, PA) rebounding modestly in April, after a steep decline in March.
Construction and Real Estate
The District's home sales and rental markets have been mixed but, on balance, softer thus far in the second quarter, with the high end of the market in many areas struggling from an over-supply and weak demand. Multi-family residential construction has remained strong, while single-family construction has risen modestly. Housing markets in upstate New York showed further signs of strength in April and early May, with brisk sales activity and tight inventories of existing homes; multiple bids continue to be common in more desirable areas. Single family home sales in Northern New Jersey have been restrained by lean inventories, while prices have been held down by a stubbornly large overhang of distressed properties. In contrast, home sales have picked up noticeably in the Lower Hudson Valley, Long Island and Fairfield County, Connecticut, though prices have thus far risen only modestly. New York City's co-op and condo market appears to have lost further momentum, most noticeably in Manhattan and especially at the high end, where a growing excess of new development is being met with tepid demand. Rental markets in and around New York City have been mixed, with particular weakness at the high end of the market. In Manhattan and Queens, markets have softened further with rents slipping slightly below year-earlier levels. However, rental markets in northern New Jersey and Brooklyn (again, except at the high end) have remained resilient, characterized, respectively, by sturdy demand and tight inventories.
Commercial real estate markets have been mostly stable thus far in the second quarter. In Manhattan, office availability rates edged up, and asking rents were flat, though still up moderately from a year ago. Across the rest of the New York City metro area, however, office availability rates edged down and asking rents climbed. In upstate New York, availability rates were steady to down slightly, and asking rents were little changed. Industrial markets continued to tighten across the District, with asking rents continuing to climb and vacancy rates edging down to multi-year lows.
Other Business Activity
Business contacts across the District are somewhat less upbeat about business conditions than in the last report. Service-sector contacts report that business activity has been steady to rising modestly in April and early May, while manufacturing contacts report a renewed decline in activity. Both manufacturing and service-sector contacts report little change in selling prices but moderate upward cost pressures.
The labor market has continued to tighten in recent weeks. While employment levels have risen only modestly, there have been more indications of labor shortages and some acceleration in wages. Manufacturers report little change in employment at their firms, and service-sector businesses indicate only modest increases in employment; however, contacts in both sectors report that they plan to increase staffing levels in the months ahead. A sizable share of service-sector contacts continues to report that they are raising wages. Moreover, two major New York City employment agencies and one upstate agency report continued improvement in hiring activity and a pickup in wage pressures. Contacts note that employers have grown more flexible on salaries.
Financial Developments
Small to medium sized banks in the District report that overall loan demand has strengthened. There were widespread increases in demand for consumer loans, residential mortgages and commercial mortgages; demand for commercial & industrial loans, on the other hand, was reported to be little changed. Bankers report that credit standards were unchanged across all loan categories. Contacts indicate narrower spreads of loan rates over cost of funds across all categories except consumer loans, where spreads were reported to be unchanged. Respondents also report an increase in the average deposit rate. Finally, bankers report lower delinquency rates across all loan categories, particularly consumer loans.
Third District--Philadelphia
Aggregate business activity in the Third District continued at a modest pace of growth during the current Beige Book period. Most contacts continued to report a modest pace of hiring with some exceptions; staffing firms remained more bullish--noting moderate hiring trends, while manufacturing firms continued to report declines. On balance, prices continued to rise slightly, although home prices appeared to remain essentially flat. However, contacts are mentioning modest wage pressures somewhat more frequently than in the last report. Overall, firms continued to expect modest growth over the next six months.
Four sectors of the Third District reported changes in the direction or pace of their growth since the prior period. Lenders reported improving from a modest to a moderate pace of growth in loan volume. In contrast, according to contacts, nonauto retail sales slowed a bit to a modest pace, while auto sales and manufacturing activity appear to have fallen after growing modestly last period. The remaining sectors indicated no change to their prior performances, which ranged from slight growth for homebuilders to moderate growth for staffing services. Contacts from general services, transportation services, tourism, commercial contractors, commercial leasing agents, and real estate brokers continued to report modest growth.
Manufacturing
Reports of overall activity fell into slightly negative territory, since the prior Beige Book period, as did reports of shipments and new orders. Firms also reported that the number of employees continued to fall slightly and the average employee workweek fell sharply after rising somewhat during the last period. The makers of chemicals, electronics, and primary metal products appeared to contribute to the overall decline in activity. The makers of lumber, instruments, industrial machinery, and fabricated metal products noted the greatest improvement from the prior period and compared with the prior year; contacts with paper products firms have reported improvements since last period, but not as strong as last year. Firms continued to note stronger demand from the housing and consumer sectors, while demand from the energy sector remained weak. Overall, contacts expressed somewhat higher expectations of growth during the next six months than during the last Beige Book period. This improvement was driven by slightly increased percentages of firms expecting increases in shipments, new orders, and general activity than during the prior period. Expectations of future capital expenditures and future employment also rose.
Retail
Nonauto retail contacts have reported modest growth in sales during the current Beige Book period--a slightly slower pace than the prior period. At mall stores, negative year-over-year comparisons for apparel sales at every price point were said to have been partially offset by continued strong growth in other categories, including restaurants. Convenience store operators also noted some slowing of sales and traffic but were uncertain as to the extent of the negative contribution from relatively colder, rainier weather and slightly higher gas prices. Contacts remained hopeful that modest growth would continue through 2016.
Overall, Third District auto dealers reported that light vehicle sales have slowed somewhat during the current period. Some dealers suggested that early May sales appeared to be coming back; others expressed concerns that sales have begun to slow from recent peaks. Dealers mentioned that lack of inventory, aggravated by high recall levels, has constrained supply; that record numbers of lease vehicles coming back to the used car market has lowered demand for new car sales. Dealers hope that total 2016 sales may still eclipse 2015, in part, due to greater use of manufacturers' incentives.
Finance
Third District financial firms reported that total loan volumes have risen substantially since the previous Beige Book period. All lending categories have been positive since the prior period except for consumer loans (excluding credit cards and auto loans). However, volumes of mortgages and home equity loans were below year-ago levels. The strongest lending categories continued to include commercial and industrial loans and auto lending, while the volume of commercial real estate loans resumed strong growth. A strong rise in credit card volumes during the reporting period is mostly seasonal in nature--a year-over-year comparison shows modest to moderate growth.
Banking contacts continued to worry about a lending environment that has led some of their competitors to take on riskier loans. Meanwhile, credit quality continued to improve for consumers and is generally positive for most commercial borrowers. While contacts signaled some rising wage pressures, most continued to report few signs of general price inflation and remained optimistic for continued slow, steady growth through year-end.
Real Estate and Construction
Homebuilders have reported that economic activity rose at the same slight pace as during the previous period and that their outlook for the year continued to be for more of the same. Some New Jersey builders may experience a brief lull in construction activity as plans are redesigned to accommodate new building codes. Builders noted few cost increases except for some manufactured inputs, such as concrete. One builder noted that the company's subcontractors have finally begun to expand capacity but have difficulty finding skilled labor.
Brokers in the major Third District housing markets reported continued modest year-over-year sales growth. A major Philadelphia-area broker expected ongoing modest growth but noted that low inventories remained a constraint, especially for moderately priced homes. Overall, home prices remained mixed--rising and falling across markets and price categories.
Nonresidential real estate contacts, predominately in the Greater Philadelphia area, reported little change in the ongoing modest gains in construction activity and in leasing activity. A developer noted that office projects have been in greater demand for over a year, while industrial/warehouse buildings have remained strong for many years. One contact indicated that existing tenants have been opting to expand at an increased rate; another noted that demand for relocation to downtown space has grown from outside firms.
Services
Third District service-sector firms reported no significant change in their own modest pace of activity. Contacts noted small net overall gains in the pace of sales and new orders with the gains occurring in the latter half of the period. The pace of employment also improved. One large national service-sector firm described the economy as "disappointingly stable." Other contacts tended to agree with the general sentiment; however, some took more of a glass-half-full perspective. An industry analyst relayed reports of a softer market for truck freight, although numerous factors obscure the contribution from the underlying economic growth. Reports from staffing firms reflected continued moderate growth, faster decision-making by firms, and more competition. Tourism contacts generally indicated modest growth--one shore contact indicated strong traffic despite colder wetter weather compared with last year. Atlantic City casino revenues rose slightly compared with the prior year--marking two consecutive periods of gains. Expectations for future growth in services remained about the same as the prior Beige Book period--with over 90 percent of the service-sector contacts expecting activity to grow or remain the same.
Prices and Wages
On balance, general price levels have continued to rise slightly since the previous Beige Book period. About 65 percent of all contacts reported no significant change in the prices they pay nor in the prices received for their goods and services--a somewhat lower percentage than last period. Of the firms that indicated a change, more indicated price increases than decreases except for prices received by nonmanufacturers, who tended to report declines. Overall, contacts are beginning to report more signs of modest wage pressure--some firms have experienced greater turnover or raised their own starting wages, while staffing contacts reported shifting their rate structure upward and receiving more push-back from recruits on salary offers.
Over the next four quarters, nonmanufacturing firms expect their own compensation costs per employee (wages plus benefits) to rise 2.5 percent; manufacturing firms expect a 3.0 percent increase. Firms also reported expectations of 2 percent annual inflation for consumers and 2 percent increases in prices received for their own goods and services.
Fourth District--Cleveland
Aggregate business activity in the Fourth District grew at a modest pace since our last report. Manufacturing output increased on balance, albeit at a slow rate. The housing market improved, with higher unit sales and higher prices. Nonresidential contractors reported that construction pipelines are strong and backlogs continue to grow. Retailers experienced disappointing sales during March and into April. Motor vehicle sales moved slightly higher. Commercial and retail credit conditions expanded slowly. Oil and gas exploration remains depressed, while investment in pipeline projects moved forward. Freight volume trended lower.
Payrolls were little changed on balance during the past six weeks. Job increases in construction and banking were offset by losses in manufacturing and freight hauling. Wage pressure was most evident in high-skilled jobs across industries and in the retail sector. Staffing firms noted little change in the number of job openings and placements. Temporary job openings are reportedly increasing. Other than small increases for select steel and petroleum-based products, input and finished-goods prices were steady.
Manufacturing
Reports indicated a modest increase in manufacturing output on net. Activity for suppliers to the motor vehicle, aerospace, commercial construction, and housing industries remains elevated. A moderation in the appreciation of the US dollar was cited as contributing to an uptick in demand. Key factors tempering output growth include a depressed energy sector and slow growth in business fixed investment. Contacts also noted that uncertainty about the general economy motivated producers and their customers to keep inventories at low levels. Year-to-date production through April at District auto assembly plants declined 1.4 percent when compared to that of the same time period during 2015. Although little change in demand was cited, steel producers were encouraged by an increase in domestic steel prices since the beginning of the year and a slight downturn in imports. One steel executive reported that his capacity utilization rate rose 7 percentage points since the start of the year. The outlook, according to our contacts, continues to improve. Sentiment weighs toward an expansion in the coming months.
A modest increase in capital budgets was reported over the period. While allocations are primarily for new equipment and maintenance, a growing number of contacts cite increased spending for R&D and footprint expansion. The latter was attributed to asset purchases from energy and steel firms that are downsizing. On balance, raw-material prices drifted higher over the period, a circumstance which was primarily attributed to higher steel prices. That said, reports indicated declining prices for other commodities--agricultural and metals. Finished-goods prices moved slightly higher in response to rising input costs. Manufacturing payrolls continued to shrink across job categories. Firms cutting employment cited a need to reduce costs because of weakened demand. A few manufacturers noted merit increases of 3 percent to 4 percent. Otherwise, wages held steady.
Real Estate and Construction
Year-to-date sales through March of new and existing single-family homes increased by more than 8 percent compared to those of a year earlier. The average sales price increased 3 percent. Builders and real estate agents attributed robust sales to low interest rates and an improvement in consumer confidence. Low inventories of existing homes are contributing to rising prices and are providing the impetus for potential buyers to consider building a home. Estimates of single-family construction starts rose moderately over the period. New-home contracts remain concentrated in the move-up price point categories, though reports indicated rising activity across lower price points. New-home list prices held steady over the period. Homebuilders and real estate agents expect stability or further improvement in housing markets during the upcoming months.
Nonresidential contractors said that business conditions remain favorable. They reported an increase in the number of publicly funded and industrial projects. The former was attributed to last December's passage of the congressional five-year highway bill. One builder noted that he has seen a significant increase in demand for spec-industrial construction. General contractors continue to increase their billing rates, with little pushback, in order to boost margins and cover higher labor costs. In general, construction project pipelines are strong, and backlogs continue to build. Survey respondents expect revenues for all of 2016 to be on par with or higher than those of a year ago.
General contractors reported little change in building materials prices apart from small increases for steel and petroleum-based products. Construction payrolls continued to expand, but the pace of growth has slowed over the period. Although new positions are being created, a majority of new hires are for replacement or seasonal help. The industry continues to experience wage pressure, especially for attracting and retaining high-skilled, high-performing employees. Subcontractors remain very busy. They are challenged by labor shortages and, as a result, many are selective when bidding. In order to cover rising labor costs and to widen margins, many subcontractors are increasing their rates.
Consumer Spending
Retailers reported disappointing same-store sales during the post-Easter period when compared to that of the same time period a year ago. Apparel was soft apart from activewear, and reports on home furnishings were mixed. The only segment reporting strong activity was restaurants. Contacts said that market conditions are very competitive at this time as consumer shopping preferences continue to shift from brick-and-mortar locations to Internet and mobile services. Consolidation continues to be prevalent across the retail sector. Within commercial centers, small local businesses are either becoming part of a franchise or exiting the market. Little change in retail conditions is expected in the upcoming months. Vendor and shelf prices were fairly stable. Apparel retailers are pushing back on their suppliers for cost reductions as a means of stemming margin declines. Changes in staffing were limited to store openings and closings. There are growing concerns about the implications of minimum wage increases on retailers' ability to staff stores.
Year-to-date sales through April of new motor vehicles rose 1 percent District-wide compared to those of a year ago. Purchases of light trucks and SUVs continue to dominate the market. For luxury brands, weakening demand that began early in 2016 continued into April. Although new-vehicle sales are expected to remain stable at high levels this year, dealers reported that fleet sales are rising, while retail transactions have flat lined or declined. Transaction prices were stable during the past couple of months, and leasing remains very popular. Dealer payrolls increased along seasonal trends.
Banking
Reports showed a modest expansion in business and consumer credit conditions, on net, over the period. On the commercial side, CRE, multifamily CRE, and C&I lending increased. Banks experiencing a decline in credit demand noted that uncertainty about the economy is driving down business investment in plant expansion and equipment. Demand from the energy sector was particularly weak. In retail banking, reports indicated that consumers are becoming more confident. Bankers saw a strong seasonal pickup in mortgage activity and higher demand for auto and credit card loans. Little change was reported in loan-application standards and delinquencies. Any improvement in delinquency rates was more prevalent on the consumer side. Core deposit balances in consumer, business, and public fund accounts increased over the period. Capital budgets expanded slightly. Spending was primarily for technology, including cyber-security, mobile, and regulatory compliance applications and for maintenance projects. Payrolls showed a moderate increase. Newly created jobs are mainly in commercial lending, regulatory compliance, cyber-security, and IT. In order to retain employees in these competitive job categories, above-average salary increases are being awarded on a more frequent basis.
Energy
The number of rigs operating in Marcellus and Utica Shales was little changed over this reporting period after declining precipitously over the past year. Nonetheless, the number of producing wells and regional natural gas output remain at historic highs. Demand for natural gas is rising as gas displaces coal as the fuel of choice. Investment in pipeline projects moved forward. Some of our contacts believe that wellhead prices may have bottomed out and those prices may start to increase slowly during the fourth quarter. Little hiring is occurring in the oil and gas industry at this time, and wage increases are sluggish. Even if business conditions stabilize, or begin to improve, a quick turnaround in this labor situation is not anticipated.
Freight Transportation
Freight volume contracted over the period, as well as on a year-over-year basis. Our contacts primarily attributed this situation to a general slowdown in economic activity leading to higher inventories across supply chains. Demand from the energy sector was cited as being particularly weak. Segments experiencing strong volume were automotive and building materials. There were many reports of overcapacity in the system, and it is forcing some haulers to lower shipping rates and to reduce capital budgets, especially for equipment purchases. One contact noted that the number of active railroad cars declined 35 percent compared to that of a year ago. The outlook by contacts is becoming more cautious, and they expect little change in volume during the upcoming months. Freight payrolls drifted lower. A majority of contacts reported cutting jobs in select categories based on changes in service-level demand. Attracting qualified replacement drivers and maintenance technicians remains difficult.
Fifth District--Richmond
The Fifth District economy continued to expand in recent weeks. Manufacturing activity increased moderately for most firms. Retail sales growth was flat on balance since the previous report, while revenues continued to grow modestly at other services firms. Tourist activity picked up seasonally, with the increase about on par with a year ago. In banking, overall loan demand increased since the previous reporting period, particularly on the commercial side. Residential and commercial real estate transactions rose moderately. Farm activity picked up modestly. Natural gas extraction increased, while coal production was unchanged. In District labor markets, demand rose moderately on balance, accompanied by some upward wage pressure. According to our most recent surveys, employment increased modestly at manufacturing and non-retail services firms, while retail hiring was flat. Wage gains were evident across a broader array of manufacturing and service sector firms. Prices of both raw materials and finished goods accelerated slightly, but increases remained generally modest. Additionally, retail and non-retail prices rose slightly faster than in the prior period, but the pace of price increases remained moderate.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity increased on balance since the previous report. Most firms reported solid growth in both shipments and the volume of new orders, and producers reported positive expectations for the six months ahead. A West Virginia manufacturer of industrial safety and hazardous material handling products said that new orders increased and production continued at a brisk pace, while a lumber company in West Virginia reported improvement in the market for higher grade lumber used for cabinets and floors. A composite materials manufacturer in South Carolina reported very strong demand and added that output firmed in the past six weeks as sales of new lightweight aircraft engines increased. In Virginia, manufacturers of engine components, furniture, and seasonal products all reported increased sales. Machinery and metal manufacturers in North Carolina indicated that new orders had risen, although backlogs were flat. In contrast, producers of chemicals (petrochemicals, industrial, and printing and ink) and manufacturers of computer and electronic equipment stated that new orders declined in recent weeks. According to our most recent survey, prices of both raw materials and finished goods rose at a slightly faster, but generally modest, pace.
Ports
Port activity varied. Automobile exports rose at two District ports, and auto imports were also strong at one of them. Container imports of consumer goods such as flooring, furniture, apparel, food, and beverages were strong. Container exports of forest products such as logs, waste paper, and pulp increased. However, exports of industrial machinery and auto parts declined. According to port officials, exports of construction equipment have been held down by weak global demand, and the outlook is for continued slow growth. Additionally, imports of agricultural equipment remained soft as low commodity prices reduced farmers' demand for new equipment. The opening of the third set of locks through the Panama Canal has been announced for June of 2016, and officials stated that at least several months would pass before the effects of the additional capacity become clear.
Retail
Retail sales were flat since the previous report, and big-ticket sales declined. An executive at a West Virginia department store complained of online competition and the economic "domino effect" of coal mine closures, but then said that his business was good on balance. A source at a large pharmacy reported faster sales growth. A building supply retailer and an executive with a chain of convenience stores both said sales were unchanged in recent weeks. However, a big-box building supply retailer and a plumbing supply chain reported slower big-ticket sales. Sales of specialty auto parts also declined, according to another executive. Automobile and light truck sales remained fairly strong but have started to slow, according to dealers and an industry expert, while motorcycle sales were sluggish. Retail prices rose slightly faster, although increases were moderate overall.
Services
Services firms reported continued modest revenue growth in recent weeks. An executive at a national trucking firm located in the District said business was uneven, but quotes had increased for dedicated service contracts in which trucks, trailers, and rates are locked in. Regional airports reported flat to slightly stronger revenue growth in passenger and cargo. A Maryland roofing and exterior remodeler said sales were up and he was optimistic about 2016. A healthcare organization executive reported that demand for services had stabilized at normal levels following a spike in flu and norovirus illnesses in March and April, while an executive at another healthcare organization said demand remained at high levels. Price increases remained contained, rising moderately since our previous report.
Tourism strengthened seasonally in recent weeks, with reports that bookings for the Memorial Day weekend were at about the same level as a year ago. Newly built homes and rentals on the outer banks of North Carolina are expected to bring more visitors and year-round residents, according to a tourism executive. In western North Carolina, an hotelier reported a good start to the early summer season, with strong convention bookings. A Virginia Beach hotel executive said the hotel's bookings were up in recent weeks, as was the average length of stay, with group bookings expected to be good through the end of the year. A Virginia resort manager reported an increase in online bookings, and a West Virginia sports and adventure executive said revenues were up. Most reports indicated that room and rental rates were flat over this reporting period.
Finance
Since our previous report, overall loan demand rose moderately. Residential mortgage lending increased modestly, but varied throughout the District. Bankers in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia reported a pickup in residential mortgage demand. In Washington and West Virginia, loan demand was characterized as stable with some localized improvements where pent-up demand and increased inventories lifted market conditions. A banker in Maryland noted an increase in lending for home remodeling. The demand for commercial loans rose more broadly. Commercial real estate demand strengthened around Baltimore and the greater Washington metro area. Merger and acquisition activity also picked up in Washington and in Virginia as well. Commercial loan demand remained strong in North and South Carolina, with some new real estate development activity; however, one banker reported that hotel development may have peaked. The highly competitive lending environment continued, with a banker commenting that there is still a lot of cash on the sidelines. Interest rates were widely reported as unchanged or slightly higher. Credit standards for new loans loosened slightly while backward-looking credit quality measures improved somewhat.
Real Estate
Residential real estate activity grew moderately since the previous report. District real estate agents continued to report low levels of inventories, with bidding wars in a couple of locations. Days on the market varied across price range and region. A real estate agent in North Carolina said demand was steady in the $200,000 price range, although he noted softer demand for homes above the $500,000 price point. A residential broker in Washington reported a strong $900,000-plus market, with increased listings and multiple offers. Residential construction reports were mixed, with contacts noting strong demand in Columbia, South Carolina and a tight single family market in Charleston, but softness in Greensboro, North Carolina and Richmond. Multi-family leasing remained strong across the District.
On the commercial side, leasing activity increased moderately overall. A commercial real estate development company in Richmond reported a very active market for retail and grocery stores. In Washington, a contact noted that limited available office space for rent was pulling vacancy rates down. A broker in Charleston, South Carolina reported robust commercial leasing and indicated that supply was limited across all leasing categories. Additionally, Charleston sources noted strong demand for industrial space and announcements of projects to accommodate new auto suppliers coming to the region. Virginia Beach leasing activity picked up, particularly in the retail sector, while commercial leasing in surrounding areas was sluggish. Rental rates and vacancy rates varied across submarkets and locales. With respect to commercial construction, increased activity was reported in Charleston, South Carolina, Charlotte, Richmond, Washington and Baltimore.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Agricultural activity increased modestly since our previous Beige Book report, according to sources. Cotton, corn, and peanut planting are underway. However, a few Virginia and North Carolina farmers reported delayed planting and harvesting of some crops because of a protracted period of rain. South Carolina planters continued to report more labor-intensive field preparation work because of last year's flooding. According to agribusiness contacts, input prices remained unchanged in recent weeks while crop prices and beef prices declined slightly.
Natural gas extraction increased since the previous report, while coal production was unchanged. Prices of natural gas edged up slightly in the past month, and coal prices remained at low levels.
Labor
On balance, the demand for labor rose moderately since our previous report. A staffing agent in Maryland indicated an increase in demand for almost every occupation with the exception of entry-level office jobs like customer service and clerical positions. A job matching firm stated that new job openings were outpacing new job seekers on their site. Throughout the District, contacts noted continued recruitment difficulties, even for entry-level production workers. Challenges were reported in finding engineers, nurses, medical technicians, machinists, industrial production workers, architects, sales and marketing professionals, farm hands, and construction workers. According to our most recent surveys, employment increased modestly at manufacturing and non-retail services firms, while retail hiring was flat. Reports of upward wage pressures increased modestly in recent weeks. A western North Carolina executive reported substantial upward wage pressure in the hospitality industry as restaurants, hotels, and health care employers compete for many of the same people. In Maryland, a temporary employment agent said his firm was successful in getting wage increases in most job categories, particularly for entry-level positions. More manufacturing firms reported increasing wages than in the prior period, and the average workweek lengthened for manufacturers, according to our surveys. Fewer services providers reported wage increases in recent weeks.
Sixth District--Atlanta
Sixth District business contacts reported economic activity continued at a modest pace from April through mid-May. The outlook among contacts remains optimistic with most firms expecting growth to be higher than current rates over the next three to six months.
District merchants reported modest sales growth over the reporting period. Auto sales declined slightly from last year's high level. The tourism sector continued to experience solid activity. According to residential real estate contacts, new and existing home sales were flat to slightly