You can see clear reasoning for almost all of these hires, and some are as close to slam dunks as can be, but nothing in college football is guaranteed.
This year’s FBS coaching hires had a common theme: they … made sense. They were merit-based and sensible.
And half of them will almost certainly fail.
I wrote those words three college football coaching carousels ago, and every one of them applies to 2016’s run of hires.
From an experience standpoint, quite a few FBS schools upgraded considerably. Florida Atlantic just hired a former USC head coach! FIU hired the architect of Miami’s early-2000s run of dominance!
From a success-and-merit standpoint, plenty of deserving coaches just upgraded their offices. Last year’s Peach Bowl champion, Tom Herman, is now at Texas. This year’s AAC champion, Matt Rhule, is moving to Baylor. This year’s Conference USA champion, Jeff Brohm, is on his way to Purdue. Willie Taggart, winner of 17 of his last 21 games at USF, takes over at Oregon.
Sure, there were some off-script moves and the types of from-within hires that often fail. But logic and sense mostly pervaded.
And it’s conceivable that fewer than half of this group will fail. After all, look again at the signing class from three years ago: Bobby Petrino at Louisville, Chris Petersen at Washington, James Franklin at Penn State, Bryan Harsin at Boise State, Dave Clawson at Wake Forest, Dino Babers at Bowling Green, Brohm at WKU, Blake Anderson at Arkansas State, Craig Bohl at Wyoming, Jeff Monken at Army, Chris Creighton at Eastern Michigan. A lot of those sensible hires paid off.
We might be saying the same thing three years from now.
Bluebloods
LSU
Ed Orgeron
Age: 55
Last 10 years: Ole Miss head coach (2005-07), New Orleans Saints defensive line coach (2008), Tennessee defensive line coach (2009), USC defensive line coach (2010-13), USC interim head coach (2013), LSU defensive line coach (2015-16), LSU interim head coach (2016)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 5
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 7-4 (fifth)
Since landing the full-time job, Orgeron has suffered some decommits and lost out on his first-choice offensive coordinator (Lane Kiffin). But his 2017 recruiting class still ranks fifth, per 247, and with Matt Canada aboard, he still seems to have aced his OC hire. You get quite a bit of margin for error when you are an ace recruiter in the middle of a recruiting hotbed.
That said, LSU’s hire has felt underwhelming to me. As emotionally satisfying as it may have been to ink a local boy to his dream job, LSU is one of the biggest names and basically limited its search to two home run swings (Jimbo Fisher, Tom Herman) and a single to right. It could work, but it’s not hard to see how it could fail.
The good news is that if Orgeron fails, he will probably fail quickly, and his buyout won’t cost much.
Grade: B
Texas
Tom Herman
Age: 41
Last 10 years: Rice offensive coordinator (2007-08), Iowa State offensive coordinator (2009-11), Ohio State offensive coordinator (2012-14), Houston head coach (2015-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 37
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 5-7 (45th)
Speaking of feel-good tales…
To all the GAs out there grinding away, keep working hard. Dreams can come true. #GreatToBeHome #HookEm pic.twitter.com/7CQynzpU11
— Coach Tom Herman (@CoachTomHerman) December 7, 2016
The former Texas graduate assistant takes a 22-4 career record to Austin and inherits a roster that was young as hell and learning a version of the up-tempo offense Herman will want to deploy. Herman has the power of personality to potentially keep meddlesome boosters at bay, and the situation feels ready-made for success.
No hire is a slam dunk, though. Herman’s Houston did lose a couple of games it shouldn’t have this year (balance for winning a couple of games it shouldn’t have a year ago), and the 41-year-old now takes over maybe the biggest job in the country with just two years of head coaching experience. We have no idea about his long-term program building skills. But he has a lot going for him. A lot.
Grade: A
Other powers
Baylor
Matt Rhule
Age: 41
Last 10 years: Temple QBs coach & offensive coordinator (2007-11), New York Giants assistant offensive line coach (2012), Temple head coach (2013-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 18
2016 Record and S&P+ rank: 6-6 (73rd)
Rhule proved himself in four years at Temple, inheriting a program that had begun to flail, hitting reset for a year, and going a combined 20-7 in his third and fourth years. The former offensive line coach has proven adaptable on offense, and his defenses have been top-notch.
Mix defensive solidity with the type of offensive talent you can land in Texas, and … well, that’s a good recipe. Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades interviewed Rhule when he was looking for Missouri’s new head coach a year ago; he clearly liked what he saw.
Still, this isn’t an amazing fit. In 20 seasons, Rhule has spent exactly one year outside of the Eastern time zone (he was a UCLA assistant in 2001), and he has a lot of recruiting relationships to build in Texas. It might take a bit.
Grade: A-
Indiana
Tom Allen
Age: 46
Last 10 years: Wabash College defensive backs coach (2007), Lambuth defensive coordinator (2008-09), Drake defensive coordinator (2010), Arkansas State assistant head coach (2011), Ole Miss linebackers coach (2012-14), South Florida defensive coordinator (2015), Indiana defensive coordinator (2016)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 56
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 6-6 (48th)
When Allen leaves your school, your defense suffers.
When he moved from Ole Miss to USF in 2015, the Rebels fell from first to 22nd in Def. S&P+. When he moved from USF to Indiana in 2016, the Bulls fell from 46th in Def. S&P+ to 100th. And when he showed up in Bloomington, the Hoosiers improved from 105th to 30th. You could understand that, upon parting ways with Kevin Wilson, IU didn’t want to let go of this defensive whiz.
That said, when you are attempting to move on from potential player mistreatment issues, hiring from within feels a little odd, doesn’t it? Allen was only around one season, so whatever may have been wrong with Indiana’s culture under Wilson didn’t have much to do with him. But schools usually try to make clean breaks in such situations. We’ll see if Allen can help to move the program forward.
We’ll also see if he can actually be a head coach.
Grade: B-
Oregon
Willie Taggart
Age: 40
Last 10 years: Stanford running backs coach (2007-09), Western Kentucky head coach (2010-12), South Florida (2013-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 14
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 4-8 (69th)
In a way, Taggart suffers from the same issues as Rhule: he’s taking over at a school in a region for which he has minimal recruiting ties. His 18-year career consists of 11 years at WKU, four at USF, and just three anywhere else.
That said, those three were at Stanford from 2007-09, when Taggart was part of Jim Harbaugh’s period of Cardinal growth. And while local recruiting connections are important at Oregon, his Ducks can only succeed because of national recruiting.
Taggart has pulled off two successful salvage jobs; at USF and WKU, he went a combined 4-20 in his first seasons, 11-13 in his second seasons, and 25-12 thereafter. He redefined himself offensively at USF to cater to the talent on hand, and he will probably do the same. If he can figure out how to get a handle on Oregon’s defensive collapse, he can win big.
But that’s an awfully big “if.”
Grade: A-
Purdue
Jeff Brohm
Age: 45
Last 10 years: Louisville passing game coordinator (2007), Louisville offensive coordinator (2008), FAU quarterbacks coach (2009), Illinois quarterbacks coach (2010-11), UAB offensive coordinator (2012), WKU offensive coordinator (2013), WKU head coach (2014-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 89
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 3-9 (108th)
Purdue has suffered from a lack of imagination, going with the safe, Big Ten-ish hire instead of looking for something exciting from outside the Big Ten umbrella.
Granted, Bowling Green, Ky., isn’t that far out of the umbrella, but snaring the immensely successful Brohm from WKU was a damn coup. His Hilltoppers have ranked in the S&P+ top 15 for two straight years, averaging 45 points per game in the process. Purdue’s best hires have come from the “outsider with offensive success” vein. Brohm qualifies.
Grade: A
The newest members of the AAC fraternity
Cincinnati
Luke Fickell
Age: 43
Last 10 years: Ohio State defensive co-coordinator (2005-10), Ohio State interim head coach (2011), Ohio State defensive co-coordinator (2012-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 61
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 4-8 (91st)
Fickell is as Ohio as it gets. He grew up in Columbus, he was a four-year starter for Ohio State, and he has coached at Ohio State for 16 years. His only two years as a non-Buckeye assistant coach were at Akron. The draw is obvious for Cincinnati.
Plus, while he wasn’t very successful in his awkward season as Ohio State’s interim head coach when Jim Tressel departed, we’ve learned time and again that yearlong interim situations are nearly impossible. So that probably shouldn’t be held against him.
Still, it’s our only evidence of Fickell as a head coach. And fair or not, that has to give us pause. He’s going to recruit well and represent the state of Ohio with aplomb. But we don’t know much beyond that.
Grade: B
Houston
Major Applewhite
Age: 38
Last 10 years: Alabama offensive coordinator (2007), Texas assistant head coach (2008-10), Texas offensive co-coordinator (2011-13), Houston offensive coordinator (2015-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 52
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 9-3 (27th)
Applewhite has lived a few coaching lives already. Remember when he was Todd Graham’s 27-year-old coordinator at Rice? Or when he was Nick Saban’s first OC at Alabama? When he was Mack Brown’s hot young assistant at his alma mater? When he was disciplined at Texas for an “inappropriate relationship?”
Applewhite is still only 38, and only the hairline hints at him being older than 26. But he’s been around the block, and now he lands a big home-state gig, one that comes with hilariously high expectations.
I’m generally hesitant to appreciate continuity hires, and being able to continue building what Herman had started was a huge selling point for him. But he’s got the experience. Hires can be both uninspiring and logical.
Grade: B-
Temple
Geoff Collins
Age: 45
Last 10 years: Alabama director of player personnel (2007), UCF linebackers coach (2008-09), FIU defensive coordinator (2010), Mississippi State defensive co-coordinator (2011-12), Mississippi State defensive coordinator (2013-14), Florida defensive coordinator (2015-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 67
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 10-3 (18th)
It does Collins a slight disservice to say that he is “selling high” in taking the Temple job. There is logic to support it — after crafting dominant defenses for Florida’s Jim McElwain for two years, Collins’ stock is high, and with the experience the Gators stand to lose on defense, they were probably due a slight backward in 2017.
However, I’m thinking the floor would’ve remained high for Collins’ Gator defense. His Mississippi State defenses ranked 17th and 27th in Def. S&P+, and both of his Florida defenses ranked sixth. UF would have slipped, but only so far, and his stock probably wouldn’t have fallen with it.
Goodness knows Collins is inheriting a job with a high defensive ceiling. Temple has ranked 16th, 18th, and 18th in Def. S&P+ over the last three years and has the type of attacking talent Collins craves.
You never know how a successful coordinator will perform as a head coach, but Collins was due. His lack of experience in the Northeast is a bit of a concern, but plenty of Northeastern head coaches recruit the South. Collins will be no different.
Grade: B+
USF
Charlie Strong
Age: 56
Last 10 years: Florida defensive coordinator (2007-09), Louisville head coach (2010-13), Texas head coach (2014-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 77
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 10-2 (39th)
No matter what kind of mess he inherited from Brown, Strong underachieved as Texas’ head coach. He didn’t handle the meddlesome boosters well, and he never seemed like a great fit within the media-saturated UT market. He was slow to make what seemed like obvious offensive changes, and once his offensive improved, his defense regressed drastically.
Very little of that applies at USF. Strong can do what he does best: recruit Florida. The competition will be stiff, but he built a winner at Louisville on the back of Florida players, and he will probably do the same in Tampa. And he’s experienced enough that he may not jump to just any power job if he succeeds.
Grade: A
Other mid-majors
FAU
Lane Kiffin
Age: 41
Last 10 years: Oakland Raiders head coach (2007-08), Tennessee head coach (2009), USC head coach (2010-13), Alabama offensive coordinator (2014-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 100
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 3-9 (118th)
Kiffin’s image transformation has been stunning. He went from the cocky, young head coach who fell upward and benefited from his well-known genes to the stepson Nick Saban never had, a guy who celebrates touchdowns before they happen, gets yelled at by his angry boss, misses the bus, and acts goofy on Twitter.
And now he’s taking a pay cut to prove he can be a head coach again. Florida recruiting has never been as competitive as it is about to be — Kiffin, Strong, and new FIU head coach Butch Davis are all well-connected, to put it lightly — and Kiffin will get to prove his tactical chops in an environment that doesn’t give him boatloads of blue-chippers.
I don’t know if this marriage will work, but I’m excited that we get to find out.
Grade: A
FIU
Butch Davis
Age: 65
Last 10 years: North Carolina head coach (2007-10)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 121
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 4-8 (118th)
If Davis were 55, this would be a slam-dunk, A+ hire. Davis’ program-building efforts at Miami, when he was head coach there from 1995-2000, were legendary. He set the table for Larry Coker to run some of the most talented teams of the last generation.
He left Miami 16 years ago, though. He went 28-23 at UNC from 2007-10 and left the program with an NCAA mess. And over the last six seasons, his only coaching job has been as an unpaid advisor for Greg Schiano with the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Talent evaluation is still talent evaluation, and Davis will almost certainly leave FIU better than he finds it. That alone makes this a solid hire. But one has to wonder about how much of the game has passed Davis by.
Grade: B+.
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 84
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 1-11 (112th)
Age: 55
Last 10 years: California head coach (2002-12), Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator (2014), British Columbia Lions head coach (2015), Washington offensive consultant (2016).
First things first: Tedford really is only 55. It feels like he’s been around forever, and it feels like forever ago that he was bringing Cal to the doorstep of a BCS bowl bid. Plus, he was dealing with heart problems only two years ago.
Still, he’s got solid California connections, and in theory he’s still got decent years to offer. But were the good recruiting ties and memories of great Tedford offenses really enough for Fresno State to so quickly pounce? Without seeing who else the market might have to offer, the Bulldogs nailed Tedford down in early November. It was a safe, uninspiring, and quick hire. That’s odd.
Grade: C+
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott
Age: ~40
Last 10 years: Appalachian State offensive line coach (2001-09), South Carolina offensive line coach (2010-11), South Carolina offensive co-coordinator (2012-15), South Carolina interim head coach (2015), South Carolina offensive line coach (2016)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 116
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 3-9 (106th)
Elliott played and coached for legendary Appalachian State head man Jerry Moore, then moved to Steve Spurrier’s staff in 2010. He was effective enough as an OL coach and recruiter that he not only served as interim coach when Spurrier retired, he also stayed when Will Muschamp came to town.
Players seem to love him, he belongs to two impressive coaching trees, and his South Carolina tenure has given him plenty of exposure to Atlanta recruiting.
And as with Fickell, holding Elliott’s 1-5 interim record against him might be unfair. But it’s all we’ve got.
Grade: B-
Nevada
Jay Norvell
Age: 53
Last 10 years: UCLA offensive coordinator (2007), Oklahoma assistant offensive coordinator (2008-10), Oklahoma offensive co-coordinator (2011-14), Texas receivers coach/play-caller (2015), Arizona State receivers coach (2016)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 96
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 5-7 (121st)
On paper, Norvell has a wealth of experience and the kind of offense-friendly pedigree one comes to expect from Nevada. He has coached at Iowa, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Nebraska, UCLA, Oklahoma, Texas, and Arizona State, and he’s mixed in six years in the NFL. Plus, the Iowa grad is yet another member of the Hayden Fry coaching tree. Those guys tend to do pretty well.
But one thing has irked me about Norvell: teams don’t seem to miss him when he’s gone.
Oklahoma ranked an average of 29th in Off. S&P+ over his last two seasons as co-coordinator, then improved to eighth and first in his absence. Texas ranked 73rd in Off. S&P+ in 2015 with him calling plays for part of the season, then rose to 31st after he left. Arizona State fell from 31st in Off. S&P+ in 2015 to 59th in 2016 when he came aboard.
Judging Norvell in this way is a bit unfair. He was also co-coordinator for a couple of excellent OU offenses, and pinning the Texas mess on him is inaccurate. But color me unconvinced.
Grade: C+
San Jose State
Brent Brennan
Age: 43
Last 10 years: San Jose State offensive coordinator (2005-10), Oregon State receivers coach (2011-16)
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 88
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 4-8 (105th)
Brennan is the least known quantity on the list. The former UCLA receiver is a San Jose local boy and spent six seasons leading decent and dreadful SJSU offenses before becoming part of strong and sickly Oregon State offenses.
Brennan will inherit a defense that was young and shaky and an offense that was led by a senior passer, senior rusher, and senior receiver. He won’t have to wait long to make an impact on that side of the ball.
But … well … I’m not going to pretend to know more about him than I do. And what I do know is mixed.
Grade: C+
Western Kentucky
Mike Sanford
Age: ~35
Last 10 years: Stanford quarterbacks coach (2007-08), Yale tight ends coach (2009), WKU quarterbacks coach (2010), Stanford running backs coach (2011-12), Stanford quarterbacks coach (2013), Boise State offensive coordinator (2014), Notre Dame offensive coordinator (2015-16
Program 5-year S&P+ rank: 44
2016 record and S&P+ rank: 10-3 (14th))
A coaching wunderkind, Sanford worked for Harbaugh and David Shaw before breathing life back into Boise State’s offense (13th in Off. S&P+ in 2014), then doing the same at Notre Dame (seventh in 2015).
2016 was a struggle for all in South Bend, but it didn’t ding Sanford’s reputation. And now he takes over what has been maybe the most impressive Group of 5 offense in the country over the last two years, one that will feature 4,000-yard passer Mike White.
This feels … right. You never know, but this feels right.
Grade: A-
Source: SB Nation