With the start of college football just one month away, it is the perfect time to make some predictions for this upcoming season. The Associated Press and the Coaches Polls will soon be released so I felt it appropriate to beat them to the punch, at least with my top 10. My pre-season rankings are based off of who I feel is best, not a projection of the AP or Coaches Poll. From there I will predict all five BCS bowl matchups, the offensive and defensive players of the year for each major conference, as well as the coach of the year and conference champions.
1. Alabama - It would be preposterous to rank someone ahead of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Not only have they won back to back titles with arguably the best coach in college football but they return their starting quarterback who led them to both National Championship Games. AJ McCarron isn’t the flashiest quarterback in college football, nor is he the best, but he is smart, experienced, and makes minimal mistakes. As a Buckeyes fan you have to appreciate these characteristics (see 2002). Alabama also returns McCarron’s favorite target, Amari Cooper, who led the team in receiving yards last season as a true freshman and broke the school’s touchdown record for a wide receiver. Losing a 1,000 yard rusher at running back would be devastating for most teams but Alabama was fortunate enough to have two of them last season. With Eddie Lacy off to the NFL, TJ Yeldon will get most of the carries. Yeldon is a future Heisman trophy winner in my opinion and 2,000 yards is in the realm of possibility in 2013 if the new guys along the offensive line adapt quickly. If Alabama under-performs this season it will be because of their offensive line. The Crimson Tide will have to replace three All-Americans at OL with two of them being first round draft picks! Nick Saban faced the same dilemma in 2009 but was able to overcome the lack of experience and win a national title. As impressive as Alabama’s offense figures to be, their defense will be even better. Their linebacking corp is scary. They return their best defensive player from a year ago in All-American outside linebacker, CJ Mosley. Middle linebacker, Trey DePriest and outside linebacker, Adrian Hubbard will be back for their junior seasons as well. Alabama will be extremely inexperienced along the defensive line but I don’t see this being a huge problem with the way Saban has recruited over the past few years. The departure of All-American and 1st round draft pick, Dee Milliner, will certainly leave a hole at defensive back but the four returning starters at defensive back should make this transition a lot easier. I predict this Alabama defense to improve on their mere 10.9 points allowed per game last season. Alabama’s schedule isn’t nearly as difficult as most people believe and I fully expect them to play for another national title if they can get past Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
2. Ohio State – Many of our readers will be disappointed that I didn’t list the Buckeyes at #1, but I can’t let personal bias get in the way of reality. I certainly won’t deny my love for Ohio State but I also refuse to deny the fact that Alabama is entering the 2013 as the better football team. I will, however, argue that Urban Meyer is every bit as great of a head coach as Nick Saban, and come January this Ohio State football team will be prepared to play anyone in the country. Alabama figures to have the best defense in college football but Ohio State will have the best offense. The Buckeyes return the most electrifying player in the nation, Braxton Miller. There is no reason Miller shouldn’t win the Heisman this season, especially with Ohio State’s schedule. Miller will continue to throw bombs to his top wide receivers, “Philly” Brown and Devin Smith, who combined for 1,287 yards in 2012. The Buckeyes’ running back corps has the potential to be the best in the nation, even with Hyde’s recent suspension. Carlos Hyde is the best back Urban Meyer has coached and Rod Smith hasn’t even cracked the surface in terms of what he is capable of. Additionally, several incoming freshmen will contribute to this high-powered offense, in 2013. Ohio State’s offensive line is easily the best in the Big 10 as they return four of their five starters from last season. Similar to Alabama, Ohio State has a weak link to their team that could easily cost them a national title, only theirs is on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes will be forced to replace six of their seven starters from their defensive front seven. It has been 28 years since Ohio State has had to replace all four starting defensive linemen! Although replacing John Simon and Johnathan Hankins along the defensive line will be extremely difficult, it is more manageable than filling the gap at linebacker. Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington will anchor their D-line and Meyer’s strong defensive recruits will provide a tremendous amount of depth. Ryan Shazier is debatably the best linebacker in all of college football but Joshua Perry and Curtis Grant are inexperienced to say the least. With the recent transfers at the linebacker position, the development of incoming freshmen Mike Mitchell and Trey Johnson will be crucial. Ohio State has the best defensive backfield in the Big Ten as well as the best overall defensive back in the nation (barring a lengthy suspension). Ohio State doesn’t have the luxury of losing a regular season game and still playing for a national championship so they will have to run the table if they plan on heading to Pasadena on January 6th.
3. Stanford – Most people will disagree with this prediction and probably feel that Stanford isn’t even the best team in the PAC-12. I have the Cardinal ranked so high in large part due to their head coach, David Shaw. I truly believe that Shaw is a top five coach in college football and Stanford will be lucky if he stays past this upcoming season. The departure of Andrew Luck to the NFL (1st overall draft pick) was supposed to cripple the 2012 Stanford team. David Shaw replaced Luck with a freshman quarterback, Kevin Hogan, and led them to a Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin. Hogan returns for his sophomore season and will try to improve on his 72% completion percentage from a year ago. Hogan will lose all of his top targets at WR and TE including 2nd round draft pick, Zach Ertz. Ertz will be a tough loss to swallow but as far as WR is concerned, it is the easiest position to replace, especially when there were no true stars. Once again Stanford will have one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Two years ago, Shaw recruited a top three offensive line group and with a couple years to mature under Shaw’s guidance, they will be ready to contribute alongside the returning starters. Stanford returns one of the top offensive line prospects in junior, David Yankey. The Cardinal’s linebackers will be the heart and soul of their defense. Senior All-American OLB, Trent Murphy will be the anchor of what figures to be a top three linebacking corps. Stanford’s defensive backfield, led by All-American FS Ed Reynolds, is an experienced unit as well, and should hold opposing offenses to minimal yards through the air. Stanford has a chance to run the table and play for a national title as they have their two most difficult opponents at home.
4. Texas A&M – Love him or hate him, Johnny Manziel is impressive. His biggest critics this upcoming season will be Ohio State fans as we wait to see if “Johnny Football” will match Archie’s two Heisman trophies. Manziel should head into the Alabama game in week three with close to 1,000 total yards after blowout wins over Rice and Sam Houston State. Aside from Alabama and LSU, Texas A&M has an extremely favorable schedule and will be one of the favorites to play for the SEC title in December, depending on the outcome of the September 14th showdown with Alabama. Manziel loses his main source of protection in All-American RT, Luke Joeckel, to the first round of the NFL draft. Joeckel’s replacement, Jake Matthews, is no slouch and is projected to be a top five draft pick. Their corps of wide receivers is extremely weak, but again, wide receiver is the easiest position to replace, especially when you have a sensational quarterback like Manziel. The Aggies have some work to do at RB but I have no doubt that their offense will flourish in 2013. They will, however, have difficulty running the table because of their inexperienced defense. They return three starters along their defensive front seven with none of them being top performers. Their defensive backfield should be solid with three starters returning. If the Aggies’ defense can at least contain opposing offenses, Johnny Manziel will handle the rest.
5. Oregon – Again, many people will disagree with this ranking, arguing that Oregon should be ranked higher. Although they have one of the best offenses in college football, they have to replace the most successful coach their program has ever had in Chip Kelly. Mark Helfrich was a great hire as he is already familiar with the system, players, and most importantly the offensive scheme, but keep one thing in mind, he is a first year head coach who hasn’t coached from the field since 1996 while at Southern Oregon. A BCS berth is certainly possible but I don’t see them as a national championship contender. This is unfortunate for the Ducks because had Kelly stayed, I would probably have them at #1. Sophomore quarterback, Marcus Mariota, finished the 2012 season with 3,429 total yards as a true freshman! To think that Mariota and Johnny Manziel were almost on the same team is unfathomable. De’Anthony Thomas is the second half of Oregon’s dynamic backfield duo and is nearing 4,000 total all-purpose yards as an Oregon Duck entering into his junior season in Eugene. Oregon doesn’t produce many big name wide receivers, but the receivers that they do get generally run sub 4.5 forties and are nearly impossible to tackle when out in space. The Ducks’ offensive line should be strong with three returning starters from an OL that averaged 315 yards rushing per game in 2012. Oregon could easily slip their way into a BCS game but it won’t be the National Championship.
6. Georgia – I have Georgia ranked at #6 solely because of their offense. Aaron Murray returns for his senior season in Athens as the best pocket passer in the nation. He has thrown for over 3,000 yards in each of his past three seasons at Georgia and I fully expect him to hit 4,000 this year. He will be named the Offensive Player of the Year in the SEC and be invited to New York City for the Heisman Trophy Presentation. Murray will have two of the three best running backs in the SEC to hand the ball off to in addition to one of the best offensive lines in the country. Georgia returns all five starters along the offensive front, led by RG Chris Burnette. Georgia loses their top wide receiver in Tavarres King but returns all of their other starters. The Bulldogs’ are left with a giant question mark on the defensive side of the ball. Their losses at linebacker will be the most difficult to overcome as they lost two linebackers to the first round of the NFL draft. They will have some holes to fill on the defensive line as John Jenkins and Cornelius Washington were also selected in this past NFL draft. Georgia will be forced to start three inexperienced players in their defensive backfield and could easily get picked apart by the pass throughout the season. Fans of high scoring games should consider following Georgia this year while I foresee several of their games turning into shootouts. If they can start their season 4-0, Bulldogs fans will be buying their tickets to the SEC Championship Game.
7. Clemson – It was difficult for me to rank Clemson so high, because similar to Georgia, their defense is average, at best. If they are able to beat Georgia in week one, however, their defense shouldn’t be put the test again until their season finale against South Carolina. Clemson’s high powered offense, led by Tajh Boyd, will be fun to watch. Boyd will be a Heisman frontrunner entering his senior season with the Tigers and will take home the ACC Player of the Year award, once again. Boyd heads into the 2013 season with over 8,000 yards of offense throughout his career. His favorite target, Sammy Watkins, will be back for his junior season and is looking for the same results from two years ago when he racked up over 1,200 yards over the course of the season. They have a hole to fill at running back after losing first team All-ACC performer, Andre Ellington. Whoever earns the starting nod at running back will run behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Clemson returns four of their starting O-linemen from a year ago and should be much improved in 2013. The Tigers return several starters on defense but will continue to struggle as Dabo Swinney’s defenses often do. Swinney is a tremendous coach but his teams generally find success because of their offense. Chad Morris is debatably the best offensive coordinator in all of college football and he enters the 2013 season with the best offense he has ever had. I pick Clemson to win the ACC virtually every year and usually find a way to let me down but I feel confident that they will breeze through the ACC in 2013.
8. Louisville – I realize that I have Louisville ranked lower than most but if it weren’t for a bowl win over and overrated Florida team would people perceive them the same? Probably not. Don’t get me wrong, Louisville looked great in their Sugar Bowl win but I guarantee you that they will lose at least one game against a much inferior team. Their schedule is so easy, however, that they may actually have to try to lose a game. Teddy Bridgewater is a serious Heisman contender and if he is able to have a season similar to last year’s, he will be a top five pick in the NFL Draft. He will be named the first ever Player of the Year in the American Athletic Conference after finishing the season with over 4,000 yards. Bridgewater’s favorite target, DeVante Parker returns for his junior season and will look to improve on his 744 yards from 2012. The Cardinals will be thin at running back so it will be interesting to see who emerges as their primary ball carrier. Louisville returns three experienced offensive linemen from last season but lost their two best. Their defense should be pretty solid, especially at linebacker. Their defensive line has a decent amount of experience but they lack a true playmaker. Charlie Strong is praying that his veteran linebackers and defensive backs can carry his defense in 2013. Strong is a tremendous coach who could definitely lead the Cardinals to national title in 2013, if they avoid slipping up against a weak opponent.
9. South Carolina – Similar to Clemson, the Gamecocks always seem to underachieve. They are consistently ranked in the preseason top ten but never manage to make a BCS game. This year’s team has the potential to break that streak. Their schedule is manageable as they get Clemson and an overrated Florida team at home. Their most difficult game is in week two, on the road against the Georgia Bulldogs. South Carolina is fortunate enough to have strong leadership on both sides of the ball. Senior quarterback, Connor Shaw, will be the sparkplug of this Gamecocks offense. He battled injuries throughout the 2012 season but if he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be big time playmaker. The most electrifying player on South Carolina’s offense is two sport star Bruce Ellington. Ellington finished the 2012 season with over 1,000 all-purpose yards and figures to play a bigger role now that Ace Sanders left early for the NFL. The departure of running back Marcus Lattimore hurts this team the most as he was not only a phenomenal football player but also a great leader. Lattimore’s injury last season allowed true freshman, Mike Davis to earn some valuable reps at running back. The Gamecocks return four of their five starters on the offensive line which will help Davis become acclimated much quicker. South Carolina returns the best (and most talked about) defensive player in college football, Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney has the potential to be drafted with the first overall pick of the 2014 NFL draft. Unfortunately for the SC defense, Clowney is the only returning starter along the defensive line. To say they lack experience at linebacker would be a drastic understatement. They will be starting three players who haven’t started a game in their college careers. They are fortunate enough to return three starters in their defensive backfield. If another player doesn’t step up quickly along the defensive front seven, these veteran defensive backs will be tested early and often. Although South Carolina has a tremendous opportunity to make a run at an SEC Championship, I think we will see them playing in another early afternoon, New Year’s Day bowl game.
10. Notre Dame – This may be the only poll that you see Notre Dame ranked inside the top 10, and as much as it kills me to say it, I think they will have a solid team in 2013. I thought the Fighting Irish were a potential top five team when they had Everett Golson and despite what 99% of college football fans believe, I think Tommy Rees can lead them to a BCS game. The loss of Theo Riddick at running back won’t hurt as badly as many ND fans tend to believe. George Atkinson is an extremely versatile back and incoming freshman Greg Bryant will complement him perfectly. Notre Dame’s passing game will struggle, not only because of Golson being kicked off the team, but because they lose a Mackey Award winner in TE, Tyler Eifert. They only return two starters along the offensive line but they are debatably the two best from a season ago. Notre Dame’s defensive line will cause nightmares for opposing quarterbacks. They return two preseason All-Americans in Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt. It is scary to think about what this line would look like had Aaron Lynch stayed but sophomore Sheldon Day should have a breakout season. At first glance one may think that the loss of Manti Te’o will destroy ND’s linebacking corps but this simply is not the case. They return their other two starters and have tremendous depth at this position. The Fighting Irish return 3 starters at defensive back and this unit has the potential to be among the best in the nation. The Irish will lose between two and three games, and be on the verge of making a BCS game.
Championship Game
Alabama v. Georgia
Winner: Alabama
Offensive POY: Aaron Murray
Defensive POY: Jadeveon Clowney
Coach of the Year: James Franklin
Championship Game
Ohio State v. Nebraska
Winner: Ohio State
Offensive POY: Braxton Miller
Defensive POY: Ryan Shazier
Coach of the Year: Pat Fitzgerald
Championship Game
Clemson v. Miami
Winner: Clemson
Offensive POY: Tajh Boyd
Defensive POY: Lamarcus Joyner
Coach of the Year: Dabo Swinney
Champion: Texas
Offensive POY: Lache Seastrunk
Defensive POY: Jackson Jeffcoat
Coach of the Year: Mike Gundy
Championship Game
Stanford v. UCLA
Winner: Stanford
Offensive POY: De’Anthony Thomas
Defensive POY: Anthony Barr
Coach of the Year: David Shaw
BCS Bowl Games
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ALABAMA VS. OHIO STATE
WINNER: OHIO STATE
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STANFORD VS. MICHIGAN
WINNER: STANFORD
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CLEMSON VS. LOUISVILLE
WINNER: CLEMSON
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TEXAS A&M VS. OKLAHOMA STATE
WINNER: TEXAS A&M
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TEXAS VS. OREGON
WINNER: OREGON