On Monday, FIFA released a thirty-man shortlist for the world’s best player. Argentina is the best represented country in the shortlist with 4 players — Sergio Aguero, Paulo Dybala, Gonzalo Higuain, and of course, Lionel Messi.
It’s no surprise that the five-time winner Messi is joined on the shortlist by his great rival Cristiano Ronaldo. Off the back of spearheading Real Madrid to their 11th Champions League win and Portugal to their first win in the Euro’s, Ronaldo is favorite among the bookies to scoop up his fourth award, having claimed football’s most prestigious individual prize in 2010, 2013 and 2014.
Since 2007, the great rivals have claimed exclusive rights over the Ballon D’Or, but with the likes of Antoine Griezmann and Messi’s Barcelona team-mates Luis Suarez and Neymar staking their claims to be named the world’s best player, the duo’s monopoly over the award is sure to come to an end soon. Still, who deserves the bragging rights this year?
Looking beyond Ronaldo’s team successes, does his individual record actually merit his status as the overwhelming favorite, or should the Argentine captain once again topple the Real Madrid man? We took a look at the duo’s numbers from the start of the 2016 to the present day to try to answer that question, looking at their individual influence on matches, determined by goals, assists, points their teams have gained through match-winning or draw-salvaging goals, and their average ratings from whoscored.com.
Messi outperforming Ronaldo in the Champions League? But Real Madrid won the Champions League last season and Ronaldo was the main man, right? Sure, but in terms of this award, we’re talking about the 2016 calendar year, not the 2015-2016 season. Ronaldo may have scored a record 16 goals on the way to Real Madrid’s 11th Champions League title but 11 of those came in 2015, in the group stages. Strictly speaking, we are only taking into account the final stages of last season’s competition and the early stages of this season’s. With those parameters in place, Messi comes out on top on almost all fronts (apart from assists), helped by his sensational start to this season’s competition, scoring two hat-tricks in two games.
This one is sure to be even more of a surprise. Looking at the two players’ statistics from the respective major international competitions in which they took part, the Copa América and EURO 2016, Messi comes out on top again. Margins are fine in football. In the final of the Copa América, Chile and Argentina finished 90 minutes at 0-0. In the final of the Euros, Portugal and France also remained goalless after 90 minutes. An extra-time goal from subsitute Éder, Portugal win and Ronaldo is venerated as a national hero. Leo Messi misses his penalty against Chile and goes home disgraced, announcing his retirement from international football (which he has since retracted). Fine margins.
Those are the two images that have been remembered and that, no doubt, will influence voting for the Ballon D’Or. But should they? Despite the headlines, the praise, the adoration, Ronaldo really didn’t have a remarkable tournament and Messi beats him in almost every category.
Messi wins in every single one of our key stats here. Supported by the increasingly influential Neymar and Suarez, Messi retained his status as Barcelona’s talisman on their way to yet another La Liga title last season.
Ronaldo has had a poor start to this term while the Argentine maestro has continued to shine in spite of Barcelona’s mediocre start to the season. Two years Messi’s senior, it seems Ronaldo’s influence at Real Madrid is beginning to wane. Indeed in La Liga last season, Gareth Bale, the man seen as CR7’s successor at Real, had a better whoscored.com rating (8.12) than the Portuguese superstar (7.99) and despite being massively hindered by injuries, had a better accumulative goals and assists per 90 minutes than Ronaldo (1.5 compared to Ronaldo’s 1.3).
Despite all the stats backing Messi, Ronaldo remains a pretty safe bet to win the Ballon D’Or. Some bookmakers have Ronaldo at odds as short as 1/10. Why? Because those images of Ronaldo lifting European football’s biggest club and international trophies will stick in the memory.
Messi, as our stats show, might well have outperformed over the course of 2016 for both club and country and that should be enough to retain his crown. Should, but likely won’t. That penalty miss will cast a shadow over each and every magic touch off the Argentine’s boot and 2016 will continue to be remembered as the year of CR7.