It has arrived! What promises to be the best day in Qld Racing for a very long time, if not ever is upon us.
If the track holds up this will be some sort of day! If you are heading out have a great day. Not for myself though, a road trip with the lads is on the cards.
*Preview will be updated leading into Saturday and will be final after 9am Saturday*
Feel free to print it out and take to the track or the Pub.
**I know a lot of punters have a crack each way but it looks a great day in chosen races to back two, possibly three in a race and still make a profit. Each to their own and best to do whatever works for you, but this week I have added ‘MY PLAY’ at the end of each race to let you know what I’ll be looking at doing each race. Hope that makes sense.
Good luck to everyone!!
EAGLE FARM
Surface should be a Good 4 with no rain in 7 days and nothing but sunshine.
BLACKBOOKERS:
Shotover River – Sat Jun 11 Eagle Farm R2- Thought he’d find easier and 2000m.
Ghisoni - Sat Jun 11 Eagle Farm R3-Obviously the one to beat.
Too Good To Refuse – Sat Jun 11 Eagle Farm R4- Great value around $10.
Candika – Sat Jun 11 Eagle Farm R7- Great price and big hope $9.
Counterattack – Sat Jun 11 Eagle Farm R9- Right in this, on top $7
Provocative – Sat Jun 11 Eagle Farm R10- Another on top at a good price $9.
Second Bullet – Sat Jun 11 Flemington R5- Should probably be winning.
Spieth – Sat Jun 11 Randwick R5
Spieth – Sat Jun 11 Randwick R8
Spieth – Sat Jun 11 Randwick R9
Race 1:
SPEED: I haven’t got a hot tempo here at all. Should just be your avg run race but the big track should help them all get their chance.
ROYAL TITHE looks the best of the locals and I’m expecting her to go forward and probably look the winner at the 200m.
In saying that I do think the Sydney horses should fight this out and its Godolphin in particular that have a strong hand. Not much between their two fillies CHIPANDA and NONPAREIL. It does seem CHIPANDA looks a far better horse on top of the ground. It was only a small field when she returned a winner but she was still held up for clear running and should have won by a bigger margin. If McDonald can get her some cover just in front of midfield she has to be the horse to beat. On the other hand NONPAREIL comes off the Listed event at Scone that a couple of horses have come from and won since, it looks a pretty decent form line and NONPAREIL had little luck that day, she twice was baulked for runs in the straight and the effort was better than it looked. Opening at $9 looks over the right price for mine.
The Snowdens are about the best trainers around so have to respect MY COUNTRY. She looked good before her break with a very nice effort behind Tessara who looks handy. She returned a winner in a benchmark 64 but just got the job done there at $1.80. No doubt in the world the Snowdens would have left a lot of improvement in her knowing they were heading north and she will bring her best.
‘My Play’- Sticking with Godolphin. Their two on top.
On Top: 3-CHIPANDA $4.20
Hardest To Beat: 10-NONPAREIL, 1-ROYAL TITHE, 9-MY COUNTRY
Race 2:
Going around in circles doing the form here! A really even bunch of horses who took each other on with little between them on a biased track last time and then throw in the genuine WFA horse back in grade with a big handicap…..
SPEED: RELIGIFY will want to lead and Moreira should find the front on him. I think they will be positive on BRAVE ALI but he won’t have the speed to hold out RELIGIFY and may end up box seat if VOLKSTOCK’N’BARRELL doesn’t choose to hold that spot. WORTHY CAUSE can get the run of the race but I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to be three pairs back this time and try and let him finish off harder.
Will VOLKSTOCK’N’BARRELL just be too good? Even with 61kg he looks well placed and the 1600m does look possibly his best trip at this stage. Not convinced he is going anywhere near as good as he was a 3 year old but going well enough to go very close from gate 1 here.
MALICE is a bit of a ‘gonna’ horse, he continues to run well but it’s been 18 months since he has saluted which is my main concern there. Will be around the money somewhere.
The track/trip/surface all suit WORTHY CAUSE and I’d expect him to run his best race this prep. They were a bit nippy for him in the Prime Ministers cup and I thought he’d just about win in the Lord Mayors but again he may be just a length off where he was last prep. Gets his chance to bounce back with some favours.
I can’t believe it as I was just about sacking the horse, but I can make a case for JUMBO PRINCE. There has been good money for him each run this time in except for last run where he drew horribly. He got the cash (dead heat-Rudy) over the mile at Doomben two runs back and then at WFA last time he got back from the horror gate on a leaders track and was actually good getting within 2.7L. He is not a horse that has been kind to me but took some of the $26 he opened up at.
Can RELIGIFY run out the 1600m on the big track? With the world’s best jockey on top he gets his chance. If it was 1400m he’d be close to a good thing but the last 200m is a big query. Around the smaller track he looked strong last time so I think he’s going to look the winner at the 100m.
AMOVATIO and DANCES ON STARS will both get back but feel they are genuine hopes with some luck in running. DANCES ON STARS is going far better than his form looks on paper. AMOVATIO jagged back from the start his last couple, two runs back it was a good ride but at Doomben he got to an unwinnable spot. He is a horse who is a proven weight carrier and I’m sure Bowman will try to find cover but also be in front of 4-5 in the running here so they don’t lose sight of the bunny with the 58.5kg. EF suits and confident Bowman gets him fresh air early in the straight. Will be very hard to beat.
‘My Play’ – Staying out.
On Top: 2-AMOVATIO $8
Hardest To Beat: 16-RELIGIFY, 1-VOLKSTOCK’N’BARRELL, 5-WORTHY CAUSE
Race 3:
SPEED: TRAVESTON GIRL (gate 10) will push forward and should roll them along. GHISONI from (14) should grab her shoulder and sit outside lead. ELEGANT COMPOSYRE (8) and CRADLE ME (1) are likely to find the spots behind the leaders. Should be an even tempo.
Well how good is she? GHISONI was $1.80 into $1.60 in most markets when they opened. She looks a dead set star and should get the job done. Some really good talk coming out of Godolphin about her and you don’t hear them talk them up like they are her. At the price I won’t be on straight out and probably not in the Qld Tipster comp either but shes the one they have to beat.
CRADLE ME has been excellent. 3rd at Scone to Clearly Innocent and Music Magnate looks enormous now. Then she jumped out of her skin to scare Ghisoni at the 100m last time. She meets GHISONI 1kg better off and will be stalking her again.
MY POPPETTE is an underrated filly who can run a race. Likely to get back from the gate but if you can make up ground she will make her presence felt. Won the G2 Fillies classic at MV last prep and has returned just as well. Eye catcher fresh and then got back to last in the G3 in Adelaide and let down beautifully (beaten 1.2L into 4th). Nice horse.
Off a couple of nice trials TELEPATHIC may be the other trifecta horse here. She has always had a stack of ability and fresh last time in work she ran 2nd to First Seal over 1300m in the G2 Millie Fox. She then went to the G1 Coolmore where she was beaten 3L but far from disgraced. Think she is a genuine chance if the fav is off her game.
‘My Play’ – Trifecta 3 / 4,9,10
On Top: 3-GHISONI
Nest Best: 10-TELEPATHIC, 9-MY POPPETTE, 4-CRADLE ME
Race 4: QLD GUINEAS
SPEED: Again just have this run at a fair tempo.
At first look this again looks an extremely hard race with a stack of chances but I am pretty confident it’s a race in two (with even luck) and which one gets the luck should win.
TSARITSA and TOO GOOD TO REFUSE will both be in the second half of the field but both animals have an extremely good turn of foot that most of these won’t be able to compete with.
TOO GOOD TO REFUSE flies the local flag and again draws a bad gate. His latest barriers have been 10,12,8,14,7,12,9. So what does he come up with her on his GF day…… yep, 17. Onto the big track is the key and in all honesty he may be a chance to grab the back of TSARITSA. As long as he gets some cover he can win. The only time in recent history a jock has got him to the outside and let rip was at Toowoomba when he pulled their pants down. He is a really good horse and I hope he gets his chance to show what he has.
TSARITSA won’t have to get as far back as TOO GOOD TO REFUSE but has a tricky enough draw to make it awkward. Moreira is on (another great ride) and you just have to back him in. I’m assuming Waller would have has this in mind for a long while and there is a real sense of timing to her preparation. She still can get the head to the side and has more improvement there which may give the opposition some hope but would also be scary at the same time.
Next best away from them may be PERFECT DARE and TIVACI who come out of the Fred Best, I think that’s going to be a great form race and the perfect lead up to this.
‘My Play’ – Will be backing both TOO GOOD TO REFUSE and TSARITSA (Currently $9 and $3.30 as I type)
On Top: 1-TOO GOOD TO REFUSE $9 + 17-TSARITSA $3.40
Race 5: QTC CUP
SPEED: This should be won at a decent clip with ELOPING likely to lead at all cost from (gate 15) and underneath her PERFECT FIT (11), THAT’S A GOOD IDEA (8) and ECHO GAL (4) try to find the spot right on speed behind her, and SPILL THE BEANS (16) may well grab her shoulder and try to sit outside lead.
Nearly all of those leaders have some great credentials and I do like what I see in the kiwi PERFECT FIT. She races on speed and is guaranteed to give a kick. Comes off a G1 win over there where she beat Abidewithme who has always had a few wraps on her.
How can you find a knock on SNIPPETS LAND who is simply airborne. His last four runs have been at either Listed or G3 level, he has won one and hasn’t been beaten any further than 0.8L in the other three. I think the key to him is being ridden a couple of pairs further back and he attacks the line. This race should yet again pan out very well for him. He’s has 4 starts over this trip for three wins and a placing.
TARGET IN SIGHT hasn’t won for 454 days but that’s a bit deceiving as he won 9 runs ago. Two runs back he spotted Music Magnate 2kg and was only beaten 0.5L and then finished midfield in the G1 BTC CUP behind Maleguerra and the run was excellent.
DANISH TWIST is in great form, couldn’t have done any more than what she has lately and gets a gun run for the gun jock (Schofield)
FEDERAL and SPILL THE BEANS in exotics for mine in what looks a really competitive race. Really liked FEDERAL on the wet track last week but don’t want to sell him short here on the dry with the light weight.
‘My Play’- Will see what the market does but don’t mind the price SNIPPETS LAND
On Top: 4-SNIPPETS LAND $9
Hardest To beat: 2-TARGET IN SIGHT, 10-FEDERAL, 6-PERFECT FIT
Race 6: BRISBANE CUP:
SPEED: ECUADOR should get an easy enough time up from to be more than competitive here. He leads, possibly IGGI POP and PUCCINI are a chance to roll forward but likely to sit off the leader. Expecting slow tempo and ECUADOR to try and give them the slip.
Have landed on SIR JOCH HAWKWOOD here, he hasn’t really ever been one of my horses but he was unlucky behind the fav REAL LOVE in the G3 JRA and he meets the mare 3kg better off at the weights. He has had a little trial to blowout the cobwebs and he warmed up really nice late in that. He’s on target and $6 is a good price.
REAL LOVE is simply one that you know will turn up and run well, she is an amazing animal to think she has been up for about a dozen runs this time in, four starts back ran 3rd in an Adelaide Cup, wins two group races here and lines up as fav in the Brisbane Cup.
ECUADOR gets his way in front and has found his old form again.
Loved RUDY’s effort in the Premiers Cup where he ran well against the bias, however I thought the 1600m race would have been his race instead of the 2400m here, we will soon know I guess.
BENZINI will be more suited over this trip on the big track and has to be considered here.
‘My Play’- Something on SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD
On Top: 5-SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD $6
Next best: 3-REAL LOVE, 1-ECUADOR, 8-BENZINI
Race 7: The J.J.ATKINS
SPEED: REDOUBLE (16), BARBASS (15), ATTENTION (2), DREAMS APLENTY (18) and VAILIEV (1) all go forward and should set up a pretty hot tempo here. All horses get a chance and strongest horse should win.
I have three main winning chances and then a few others that wouldn’t surprise.
JAWS OF STEEL $18, SACRED ELIXIR $4.40 and CANDIKA $8 are all horses that will be midfield or worse but they all attack the line and the tempo here should suit the three of them.
CANDIKA has promised a lot from the first time we saw her. She placed in the Magic Millions but the whole prep she looked like a horse that wanted further. Fast forward to this prep and third up she got to 1350m and sprouted wings late. The big track is ideal and I’m surprised she is still close to double figures off that run.
The big unit from NZ- SACRED ELIXIR. I’ve got a big wrap on Tony Pike and he has a great idea of what horses to bring to Oz. I think he has timed this horse and his Oaks filly to the minute for their grand finals. SACRED ELIXIR had his first run at the Sunny Coast and Browne was very easy on the horse. He was nowhere screwed down but it was a decent blowout and win. Then went to the Sires over 1350m at Doomben, got snagged back and was warming up late. I’m not accusing anyone of warm up runs but that’s about all it was, and a very good one at that. They have had this as their goal all along and 1600m at EF is ideal and I see him running a career best mark in this and stamping himself as one to follow in the future.
The blowout horse may be JAWS OF STEEL, really like the way he goes about it. He is versatile, can sit on speed or settle last and rip home in really good sectionals. He may well have won the G1 Champagne (1600m) over the Championships but clipped heels and nearly fell. He would have been in the money somewhere. Come from last with 58.5kg at Flemington in his lead up for this and looked strong doing it. Form from that race is avg, I admit that but he looks a good one and $21 looks generous.
Haven’t given up on SOUCHEZ, nothing went right in the Sires and we all forget he was a massive go that day and started odds on. Ended up out wide which wasn’t the place to be, complete forgive.
ATTENTION won the main lead up so no knock on him, while NIKITAS showed a glimpse of his summer form and more improvement would put him in this also. CADOGAN was also a forgive as he was on the wrong part of the track and a sharp turnaround on that run wouldn’t surprise.
‘My Play’- Already have ticket at odds for CANDIKA, so will take big odds JAWS OF STEEL and make SACRED ELIXIR a winning way also.
On Top: 9-SACRED ELIXIR $4.40
Hardest To Beat: 16-CANDIKA, 8-JAWS OF STEEL $21, 3-SOUCHEZ
Race 8: THE DERBY:
SPEED: The lead up races have had very little speed and MACKINTOSH has been right up on or leading and sprinting too quick for them. I think a few might have seen a chink in the armour of the fav and may put a bit more pressure on a bit earlier. Not a great tempo but should be even.
The Grand Prix is the obvious lead up race where nearly all of these horses ran. MACKINTOSH won again there and although I don’t have a real knock on him I think the tougher 2400m on this track is a question and he looks too short for mine. HOWARD BE THY NAME was on the right part of the track and just got held up for a stride and should have gone very close to winning. He won the S.A Derby before that and is a leading contender again. ETYMOLOGY was runner up to HOWARD BE THY NAME in S.A but didn’t race in the Grand Prix, he is an out an out stayer who will just keep coming.
The stablemate of ESCHIELLE looks as though he may have snuck up on Godolphin a bit as they had to pay the late entry into this and he looks a winning hope. He got way too far back in the Rough Habit but found the line ok. He then got back again last start, got up on the right part of the track but had to change course and lost ground. He should have been right on the winners heels. Reckon around the $7 he is the way I will go.
The obvious one many punters will find is EAGLE WAY. Like a Caulfield Cup looking for a Melbourne Cup winner, you have to look for the horses attacking the line in the lead up to this. EAGLE WAY has attacked the line every run this prep and he was out on what was inferior going early in the straight and let down beautifully. He should have no dramas running this out and I wouldn’t be surprised if he started favourite.
Interested in ENCOSTA LINE, he may well be a very good stayer. He got out to 1900m last time and it was probably a career best, that’s a great sign when they step up in trip. The query has to be 1900-2400m with 5 weeks between runs. He is however in the Waller camp and has Bowman on top.
Best roughie for trifectas is I’M BELUCCI, forget he went around the Rough Habit when wide the entire trip and still went ok. Got way back last start and although a bit dour he kept running on.
‘My Play’- Not that keen to bet here. Maybe something ESCHIELLE for an interest.
On Top: 13-ESCHIELLE $7
Hardest To Beat: 7-EAGLE WAY, 1-HOWARD BE THY NAME, 6-ENCOSTA LINE
Race 9: THE STRADBROKE:
SPEED: Hot tempo here as every straddy should be! TWO BLUE (2) boots up from the inside to try and hold the fence. TAKEDOWN (11) and THE VIRGINIAN (12) both motor early to be right on speed. MALEGUERRA (9) and HOOKED (16) also likely to be positive to find a spot behind that speed.
This is what makes the straddy what it is. Great horses and a hot tempo with the handicapper sorting them out. You always look for one that has escaped the handicapper, is there one this year? I’m not so sure.
Let’s start with the fav- AZKADELLIA has drawn perfect in gate 5. Oliver knows her back to front now and he will come out neutral and let her be where she is comfortable but I’d be surprised if that wasn’t right around midfield with cover getting a great run. The 10,000 was just what she needed to bring her on for this and Maher is confident he has her spot on!
I think the big danger is COUNTERATTACK. He has always had ability but continues to improve and his win in a hot Fred Best was outstanding. You just don’t see horses sit 3 wide the entire at Doomben and run away from them, that’s what he did and did it well. I think the form from that race will be very good. There is nobody better at getting them set for a specific day than Waller and Moreira just has to find him some cover from the sticky gate, that’s the only question.
With the weight BLACK HEART BART has a big task. Near impossible to win with that weight but topweights in form always run well and give a sight. He’d line up well to some of the top weights over the years, he’s not on top for me but wouldn’t surprise to see him look the winner. UNDER THE LOUVRE meets him 2kg better off and the tempo will help him so he is worth consideration also.
MUSIC MAGNATE has never been one of my horses but you simply have to respect on the 10,000 win where he was tough and seen off all challengers that had their chance. MALEGUERRA is a similar story coming off a G1 win in the BTC cup, this has been the plan the whole time and he continues to take the steps forward.
Many punters would have given up on ARTLEE as he has been costly but down to 52kg in a race he won’t have time to pull is what he is after. CHARLIE BOY was as good as AZKADELLIA in the 10,000 so the $21 here seems a decent price.
KAEPERNICK is one with a sense of timing about him. Has stacks of ability and they have learnt how to ride him, get him back with cover, get him balanced and let rip. He will give a sight here with 52kg.
‘My Play’ Pretty confident in AZKADELLIA and COUNTERATTACK- Will back both.
On Top: 12-COUNTERATTACK $7 + 5-AZKADELLIA $4
Race 10: THE OAKS
(Wish I was getting paid per letter in this bloody preview!)
Took the $34 PROVOCATIVE just a couple of weeks ago so been praying for her to get a run. Gets the horror gate but she is good enough to overcome that. In a race where we know the form pretty good and the fillies seem like a pretty even bunch there is no doubt she is the X-factor. She is by Zabeel out of an O’Reilly mare so the 2400m should exactly what she is after. Only had 10 days between runs including a plane trip over when she won at Ipswich. Some people are knocking the form but that considered, as well as the weight and the fact Ipswich was never going to suit the effort was great as she was asked to make a few runs and responded each time. Just needs the luck in running and I thought she would have started fav but it doesn’t look that way.
The Roses is the obvious lead up and KEBEDE couldn’t have done any more than she did in winning there. Got a charmed run but that’s because she has tactical speed and is able to go forward or sit off them. This has been the target for a long time.
IMPOSING LASS hasn’t missed her place her six runs. She is just a rock solid filly who has progressed incredibly well. Will again go forward and give a sight.
The other kiwi ROMANTIC MAID won well in Sydney, has to be some hope, I’m just in the corner of the other NZ filly.
SEBRING SALLY was three wide in the Roses, she loomed up and gave a great fight. Peaking at the right time and from all reports Waller is pretty happy with her.
FALKENBERG is a cracking filly but has been expensive for punters after staying in the gates a couple of times. The effort last time was good as she raced tight for a while in the straight and was only beaten 3.1L. Shinn goes on and if she gets away with them she may just be too good.
AMBIENCE has already placed in two Oaks but is another that will need a bit of luck from the gate.
ALASKAN ROSE the best of the rest but thought she may have been better suited last week on the wet track.
‘My Play’- Finishing the day with PROVOCATIVE.
On Top: 19-PROVOCATIVE $9
Next Best: 9-DAWNIE PERFECT, 12-FALKENBERG, 3-KEBEDE, 6-SEBRING SALLY
GIBBOS BEST BETS:
Race 6 No.5- SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD
Race 10 No.19- PROVOCVATIVE
*But keen to play races 4 and 7 also.
‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:
*to be added
STEVE HEWLETTS BEST BETS:
*to be added
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