It’s often been drier than average this year with high pressure control the weather for long periods in spring and summer and I know some people have been speculating on the possibility of hose pipe bans and the like in summer 2014. The weather during the next couple of weeks should help allay those concerns because it does look as though there’s plenty more rain on the way in all parts of the UK, and I’d have thought we’re far enough into the autumn for the water to begin filling reservoirs and aquifers rather than being taken up by trees and vegetation. If anything we’ll probably have too much rain in the short term leading to ground becoming saturated and an increasing risk of flooding in places.
The unsettled conditions are being caused by low pressure systems in the Atlantic pushing strong winds and weather fronts across the UK. It’s a typical set-up for western Europe in October and November, but perhaps in the last few years we’ve become more accustomed to relatively benign conditions in the autumn. It’s also possible the unsettled spell is being intensified by the above average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) currently across much of the Atlantic which mean there is more energy in the mix. This latter point is speculation on my part and I’ve not read anything from other sources which provides evidence to corroborate this.
Will things improve next week and as we head towards Bonfire Night? Doubt it. As I mentioned at the start it looks like the unsettled weather has some way to run yet but there will be subtle changes. We’ll probably find temperatures easing down towards the seasonal average at least for a time as winds tend to come more from the west rather than the south west. By Saturday 2nd November when a lot of you will be having your fireworks or attending displays temperatures could be ticking up again back into the mild category, but still it looks unsettled.
The chart below shows the GEFS average forecast Mean Surface Level Pressure on Saturday 2nd November. The key things are lower pressure to the north west and higher pressure over the continent. Unsettled.
To summarise there’s still no sign of a major change in the weather as we head towards and beyond Bonfire Night. Unsettled with mild to average temperatures sums it up today.
Latest forecast charts