2015-11-18

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For the second week in a row the New England Patriots have suffered a season-ending injury to an offensive star. And for the second week in a row the same player could have to step up and play a bigger role.

First it was Dion Lewis (torn ACL) going down in Week 9 against Washington Huskies , and last week Julian Edelman (broken foot) got hurt against the New York Giants . That’s going to force Danny Amendola into a huge role for the Patriots and Tom Brady , and he should be added in all leagues. Amendola is owned in 45 percent of leagues on CBS Sports.

We have a small sample size of how Amendola has done when asked to do more in the offense. When Lewis first hurt his abdomen in Week 6 at Indianapolis and then missed Week 7 against the New York Jets , Amendola had 15 catches for 191 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets in those two games. And then against the Giants, Amendola had 10 catches for 79 yards on 11 targets.

Amendola won’t produce on Edelman’s level, and the Patriots will also lean more on Rob Gronkowski , Brandon LaFell , Scott Chandler , LeGarrette Blount and possibly James White . But we know how well Brady is playing and how much he is throwing the ball (41 attempts a game), and Edelman was a vital part of the offense with 61 catches for 692 yards and seven touchdowns on 88 targets. That’s nearly 10 targets a game that has to be replaced.

Amendola has five games this season with at least five targets, and he has scored at least seven Fantasy points in three of them. It appears like he will see at least five targets on a regular basis for the next seven games, so there’s a chance for quality production down the stretch.

You should add Amendola in all leagues where he’s available, and he’s the No. 1 free agent to pick up off the waiver wire in Week 11.

Quarterbacks

Injuries: Peyton Manning (foot), Brian Hoyer (concussion) and Sam Bradford (shoulder/concussion)
Key players on bye: Drew Brees , Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger
Priority list (Top 5 to add in this order):

There are three prominent quarterbacks on a bye this week, and Peyton Manning should no longer be on Fantasy rosters. So who can you trust? For Week 11, Fitzpatrick is worth the risk, even coming off thumb surgery Friday on his left, non-throwing hand. Fitzpatrick has scored at least 18 Fantasy points in six of the past seven games he’s been able to finish, including three outings with at least 22 points. He’s facing a Texans defense this week that has allowed multiple touchdowns to five quarterbacks, and he played for Houston last season, which could provide additional motivation. Fitzpatrick is a borderline No. 1 quarterback this week, and he gets Miami at home in Week 12, at the Giants in Week 13 and vs. Tennessee in Week 14 if you want to speculate on a quarterback for the next few weeks.

We’ve seen the best and worst of Mariota the past two games against the Saints and Panthers. In Week 9 at New Orleans, Mariota dropped 40 Fantasy points on a terrible defense, and he followed that up with seven Fantasy points in a much tougher matchup against Carolina in Week 10. His matchup in Week 11 at Jacksonville is clearly closer to the Saints, and the Jaguars have allowed four quarterbacks in a row to throw for at least 272 passing yards and two touchdowns. Since the game is Thursday night, that could lead to a letdown performance, but Mariota is worth the risk as a starter given the matchup. He should be added and potentially started in all leagues, and he faces Oakland in Week 12 and the Jaguars again in Week 13.

Bradford has already been ruled out for Week 11 against Tampa Bay, and there’s a report he could miss Week 12 also since the Eagles play at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. That should give Sanchez two games to start and possibly steal the job from Bradford, who has been a disappointment this season. We wouldn’t look that far ahead, not that it matters, since most Fantasy owners won’t be looking to add Sanchez in the majority of leagues. But facing the Buccaneers and the Lions is a good two-game stretch, and Tampa Bay has allowed five of the past six quarterbacks to score multiple touchdowns, with three 300-yard games over that span. And last year, when Sanchez took over for the injured Nick Foles as the Eagles starter, he had four games with at least 22 Fantasy points in a standard league in the final eight games.

Peyton Manning has been ruled out for Week 11 at Chicago, and we’ll see if Osweiler can take advantage of this opportunity to start against the Bears on the road. He can’t be worse than Manning, who threw four interceptions in Week 10 against the Chiefs at home and has 17 interceptions on the season. Osweiler came on for Manning against Kansas City and was 14-of-24 passing for 146 yards, one touchdown and one interception and one carry for 18 yards. The Bears have allowed just one quarterback to score multiple touchdowns in the past five games, and no quarterback has thrown for 200 yards in Chicago this season. Osweiler will only be an option in two-quarterback leagues this week.

I originally had Hoyer (26 percent) as the No. 2 quarterback to add this week before he got hurt Monday night against the Bengals. And if he’s cleared to start in Week 11 against the Jets then he’s worth picking up and potentially starting this week. Prior to Monday night against the Bengals, Hoyer was the model of consistency for Fantasy owners with at least 21 Fantasy points in five consecutive games. Yates came on for Hoyer and completed 5-of-11 passes for 69 yards and one touchdown, and maybe he can take advantage of this matchup with the Jets, who have allowed multiple touchdowns to three of the past four opposing quarterbacks prior to facing Tyrod Taylor on Thursday night in Week 9. It would be risky to trust Yates in standard leagues, but owners in two-quarterback formats could take a shot on him. And, if you’re looking ahead, whoever starts for Houston in Week 12 faces the Saints, which would be a dream for any quarterback, as Kirk Cousins just showed.

Potential drop candidates: Peyton Manning (99 percent), Andrew Luck (95 percent) and Sam Bradford (68 percent)

Of note:

Jay Cutler (71 percent) should be added in all leagues where available based on how well he has played in the past six games. He’s scored at least 21 Fantasy points in a standard league in every game over that span, and he went for 30 points at St. Louis in Week 10. I don’t love the matchup for him in Week 11 against Denver, but it’s hard to ignore his production since Week 4. He also has favorable matchups ahead against San Francisco in Week 13, Washington in Week 14 and at Tampa Bay in Week 16.

Cousins (35 percent) was fantastic for Fantasy owners who bought into him in Week 10 because of his matchup with the New Orleans Saints , and he scored a season-high 36 Fantasy points. But don’t make the mistake of expecting Cousins to do that on a regular basis. Like Mariota, he had a huge game against the Saints and had to follow it up with a game against Carolina. Like Mariota, Cousins will come crashing down to reality. He should only be owned in two-quarterback leagues in Week 11.

Jameis Winston (54 percent) could be a sneaky option in two-quarterback leagues this week against the Philadelphia Eagles . Philadelphia has allowed three quarterbacks in a row to score multiple touchdowns, including Matt Cassel and Ryan Tannehill . Winston has been bad the past two games, however, with 17 Fantasy points or less against the Giants and Dallas, so keep that in mind.

Running backs

Injuries: T.J. Yeldon (foot), Ryan Mathews (concussion) and Zac Stacy (ankle)
Key players on bye: Mark Ingram , Shane Vereen and DeAngelo Williams
Priority list (Top 5 to add in this order):

This is a bad week for running backs off the waiver wire because, thankfully, we didn’t have a serious injury to a star. So this is a good week to handcuff your starters if possible, or you can look to add Jones, who should be the No. 1 running back on waivers. He’s not going to post dominant stats on a weekly basis, especially with Alfred Morris still in the mix, but you can see the upside when he has a favorable matchup like Week 10 against the Saints. Jones had 11 carries for 56 yards and three catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. He should struggle against the Panthers in Week 11, but he gets the Giants in Week 12 and Dallas in Week 13, which could lead to quality production in those games.

DeAngelo Williams, Charcandrick West and Jeremy Langford are three examples of handcuff running backs having tremendous success in place of the starter, and you should look for your handcuff if available. Of course, for every success story there’s an Alfred Blue, but you never know if an injury occurs and the next man up becomes a star. Some backups to target, even if you don’t own the starter and want to try for a lottery ticket, include Ajayi, Thomas Rawls (44 percent), Tevin Coleman (43 percent), Jerick McKinnon (13 percent), Javorius Allen (12 percent) and Ahmad Bradshaw (10 percent). Ajayi has looked good the past two weeks with five carries for 41 yards at Buffalo in Week 9 and six carries for 48 yards at Philadelphia in Week 10. The Dolphins want to get him more work, and he could pressure Lamar Miller for touches. And should Miller go down. we could see Ajayi be a difference maker for Fantasy owners, much like Williams, West and Langford.

Yeldon came out of Week 10 at Baltimore with a foot injury, and he was in a walking boot Monday. The Jaguars play against the Titans in Week 11 on Thursday night, and Yeldon might not be ready to play. If that happens, Robinson should get the majority of touches against the Titans, who have allowed four running backs to score at least nine Fantasy points in a standard league in the past five games. Yeldon missed Week 6 against Houston with a groin injury, and Jacksonville split touches with Robinson and Toby Gerhart, with neither playing well. Robinson had seven carries for 19 yards and three catches for 19 yards against the Texans, and Gerhart had nine carries for 26 yards and three catches for 23 yards. Gerhart would also get work against the Titans if Yeldon is out, but we’d rather take our chances with Robinson if you need to replace Yeldon.

Shaun Draughn (16 percent)

Draughn was the most productive San Francisco 49ers running back in Week 9 against Atlanta with Carlos Hyde (foot) out. We’re not sure if Hyde will return in Week 11 at Seattle following San Francisco’s bye, but Draughn is worth picking up in deeper leagues over Kendall Gaskins . Against the Atlanta Falcons , Draughn had 16 carries for 58 yards and four catches for 38 yards. He’s not worth using in most formats against the Seattle Seahawks , but some owners in deeper formats could be in need of a running back for about five Fantasy points, which Draughn should deliver.

White did nothing in the first game with Lewis out in Week 10 at the Giants with one carry for 5 yards and one catch for 6 yards, but maybe he plays a bigger role now that Edelman is out. I’m just speculating, but White could be more of a factor in the passing game moving forward. Most likely, the Patriots will continue to lean on Gronkowski, LaFell, Amendola, Chandler and Blount, but maybe White and even Aaron Dobson get a boost in production. Depending on what your roster looks like and any potential moves you want to make this week, you could consider adding White to see what develops. At least we know White is ahead of Brandon Bolden as the No. 2 option behind Blount. Against the Giants, White played 28 snaps, Bolden played 10 and Blount played 38.

Potential drop candidates: C.J. Anderson (96 percent), Rashad Jennings (85 percent), Melvin Gordon (81 percent), Carlos Hyde (81 percent) and Isaiah Crowell (74 percent)
Of note:

Darren Sproles (58 percent) could get more work in Week 11 against Tampa Bay if Mathews is out with a concussion. DeMarco Murray would continue to dominate touches, so keep that in mind, and Sproles has scored just 12 Fantasy points in his past six games combined. But he does have five catches in two of his past three games, and owners in PPR leagues could take a flier on Sproles with this matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if Mathews isn’t cleared to play.

The Tennessee Titans running back situation looked like it was starting to settle itself with Antonio Andrews getting a nice workload the two games prior to Week 10 against Carolina with at least 19 touches against Houston Cougars and New Orleans. But he struggled against the Carolina Panthers with 11 carries for 8 yards and no catches, and now Tennessee Volunteers could activate David Cobb (calf) for Thursday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars . Dexter McCluster also scored against the Panthers, so this is a backfield to avoid if possible. Still, in deeper leagues, Fantasy owners should still rank the Titans running backs in this order: Andrews (79 percent), Cobb (32 percent) and McCluster (13 percent). But if you want to take a flier on Cobb, now is the time to do it in 14-team leagues or larger.

Keep an eye on Stevan Ridley (4 percent) in Week 11 at the Houston Texans since Stacy is out for the season, and Bilal Powell (ankle) hasn’t played since Week 6. Ridley had three carries for minus-1 yard against Buffalo Bulls in his first action of the season, and he could be the handcuff for Chris Ivory moving forward.

Wide receivers

Injuries: Allen Hurns (abdomen), Julian Edelman (foot), Emmanuel Sanders (concussion), Michael Floyd (hamstring), Justin Hunter (ankle) and Bryan Walters (concussion)
Key players on bye: Brandin Cooks , Willie Snead , Odell Beckham , Antonio Brown , Martavis Bryant and Travis Benjamin
Priority list (Top 5 to add in this order):

Amendola gets to face a Bills defense this week that has allowed 12 receivers to score or gain at least 80 receiving yards, including Edelman (11 catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns) and Dobson (seven catches for 87 yards) in Week 2. Amendola only had one catch for 29 yards in that game, and LaFell was on the PUP list. We should see Amendola play better in the rematch, especially if he gets five-plus targets now that Edelman is out. He should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues in Week 11.

Fantasy owners who still have the chance to add Johnson should do so in every league because the Chargers need him with Keenan Allen (kidney) and Malcom Floyd (shoulder) out in Week 11 against the Chiefs. In Johnson’s first game without Allen in Week 9 against Chicago, he had seven catches for 68 yards on 10 targets, and he was tripped up inside the 5-yard line on a potential touchdown. The Chiefs secondary has played better of late but is still among the leaders in Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. Johnson should be owned in all leagues and started in this matchup with Kansas City.

Aiken is the Baltimore receiver to own if you have to add one, but Givens could start to become a quality playmaker now that Steve Smith (Achilles) is out. In the first game without Smith against Jacksonville in Week 10, Aiken had seven catches for 73 yards on 14 targets, and Givens had four catches for 37 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. The Ravens have a tough matchup in Week 11 against the Rams, but Aiken should continue to hog targets for owners in PPR leagues (at least seven in five of his past six games). And Givens played for the Rams this season before being traded to Baltimore, so there could be extra motivation against his former team.

Fantasy owners are likely never going to feel comfortable starting Matthews even though he has scored at least eight Fantasy points in a standard league in six of nine games, including Week 11 against the Eagles when he had five catches for 93 yards on six targets. But he clearly should be considered a serviceable No. 3 receiver in three-receiver leagues, and Tannehill has leaned on him all season with at least six targets in six games. Touchdowns are an issue with four in three games, but owners in PPR leagues should feel comfortable about Matthews production so far this season and moving forward for the final seven games of the year.

There isn’t really a standout No. 5 receiver to add this week, but Lee could see a bigger role if Hurns and Walters are out Thursday against the Titans. Lee played in Week 10 at Baltimore for the first time since Week 3 with a hamstring injury, and he had one catch for 8 yards on five targets. Blake Bortles could lean on Lee, especially if Hurns can’t play, and he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues. The talent is there for Lee, and now is the time for him to prove his worth with what could be a golden opportunity if he starts opposite Allen Robinson.

Potential drop candidates: Golden Tate (80 percent), Travis Benjamin (74 percent), Andre Johnson (73 percent), Anquan Boldin (71 percent) and Mike Wallace (71 percent)

Of note:

Despite their poor outings against each other in Week 10, I’d still consider adding Dorial Green-Beckham (28 percent) and Devin Funchess (17 percent) in deeper leagues based on their upside. Green-Beckham had no catches on two targets against Carolina in Week 10, but his role could expand now that Hunter is out for the season and Kendall Wright (knee) remains sidelined. And Funchess could start playing a bigger role for the Panthers, who could use a true No. 1 receiver to complement Greg Olsen . Funchess, however, was a disappointment against the Titans in Week 10 with just two catches for 41 yards on two targets.

Doug Baldwin (56 percent) was great in Week 10 against Arizona with seven catches for 134 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets, but he has never been consistent enough to trust in the majority of leagues. Prior to Week 10, Baldwin combined for six Fantasy points in a standard league in his previous three games, and he last scored double digits in Fantasy points in Week 2. He’s a No. 3 Fantasy receiver at best in Week 11 against San Francisco.

Jamison Crowder (9 percent) is worth a look in deeper leagues, especially PPR formats, and he’s done a nice job as the No. 2/3 receiver for the Washington Redskins this year. Crowder has at least five catches in seven games in a row, with at least 50 receiving yards in four of those outings. He scored his first touchdown in Week 10 against New Orleans, and hopefully he can build off that performance for the rest of the year.

Dwayne Harris (6 percent) is off in Week 11, but he has played well of late and is worth considerating in deeper leagues. He has scored at least 14 Fantasy points in two of his past three games, and he has been productive when he has gotten the targets. There have been four games when Harris has at least six targets, and he has scored at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in all of those outings. Harris has been better than Rueben Randle this season as the No. 2 receiver behind Odell Beckham.

Tight ends

Injuries: No one of significance from Week 10
Key players on bye: Gary Barnidge , Benjamin Watson and Heath Miller
Priority list (Top 5 to add in this order):

Ebron was a major disappointment in Week 10 at Green Bay when he had just four catches for 28 yards despite eight targets. He also watched as backup tight end Brandon Pettigrew scored against the Packers, but Ebron has a dream matchup this week against the Raiders. Oakland is terrible against tight ends and leads the NFL with 10 touchdowns allowed to the position. This is a great week to trust Ebron at home against the Raiders, and he’s scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league three times in seven games.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t getting much help from his receivers these days, but his tight ends have been productive, especially Rodgers. He has three touchdowns in his past two games, and he’s combined for 22 Fantasy points in a standard league over that span. Justin Perillo (0 percent) also played well against the Lions last week with five catches for 58 yards and a touchdown on six targets, but Perillo came into Week 10 with two catches for 27 yards for the season. You can ignore Perillo in most formats, but Rodgers is worth owning in all leagues heading into Week 11 at Minnesota.

The Ravens leaned on their tight ends against Jacksonville, which was the first game without Smith, as Gillmore, Maxx Williams (2 percent) and Jack Boyle (0 percent) all played well. Gillmore (four catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on four targets), Williams (four catches for 40 yards and a touchdown on four targets) and Boyle (three catches for 35 yards on three targets) all contributed against the Jaguars, but Gillmore is the one to target off waivers in all leagues. He has scored in consecutive games, and he could continue to make plays down the stretch, including Week 11 against the Rams, who just allowed two touchdowns to Zach Miller in Week 10.

Clay continues to function as the No. 2 receiving option for the Bills behind Sammy Watkins, and he had five catches for 52 yards on six targets at the Jets in Week 10. He should see plenty of targets in Week 11 at New England with the Bills likely chasing points, and he had three catches for 19 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots in Week 2 on six targets. I would expect about seven Fantasy points in the rematch with New England this week.

Miller is a nice story, and he actually scored three touchdowns in less than a week. His first touchdown came Monday night in Week 9 against the Chargers, and then he scored twice against the Rams on Sunday in Week 10. He finished the game against St. Louis with five catches for 107 yards and two touchdowns on five targets, but it will be hard to trust him most weeks. Martellus Bennett will still get the most targets at tight end for the Bears, and let someone else in your league chase Miller’s points because this two-game stretch is the best he will play this season. He’s only worth adding in 14-team leagues or larger.

Potential drop candidates: Julius Thomas (82 percent), Vernon Davis (75 percent) and Benjamin Watson (75 percent)

Of note:

Zach Ertz (35 percent) and Brent Celek (4 percent) were great in Week 10 against the Miami Dolphins , with Celek catching four passes for 134 yards on four targets, and Ertz had seven catches for 68 yards on 10 targets. Ertz also had a touchdown called back due to a penalty. I hope both guys continue to play like this, but I wouldn’t add either one yet in the majority of leagues. This was a great matchup, and they have been inconsistent all season. Ertz is the safest bet to get you five Fantasy points on a regular basis, but he has a low ceiling most weeks.

DST streamers

Falcons (vs. IND): 39 percent
Kansas City Chiefs (at SD): 59 percent
Chicago Bears (vs. DEN): 9 percent

K streamers

Matt Bryant (vs. IND): 47 percent
Josh Lambo (vs. KC): 32 percent
Graham Gano (vs. WAS): 56 percent

The post Fantasy: Week 11 Waiver Wire appeared first on Boss Odds.

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