Trying to predict any single team’s fates over the course of a 162-game Major League season, you may know, is a foolish pursuit. Trying to predict the fates of all 30 MLB clubs is even dumber than that. The following list aims to rank every big-league team on the state of its offense for 2016, as it stands in early February. By August, it will inevitably become clear that I wildly missed some marks here.
Plenty still can and will change before opening day: Several free agents lingering on the market could improve teams’ offensive outlooks, and there’s always a chance of a big late-offseason trade that shakes up a couple of lineups. Plus, important hitters will get hurt in spring training and decent hitters will emerge from nowhere to earn roster spots, and a couple prospects will show up to spring training appearing far closer to Major League ready than anyone expected.
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What follows represents only a series of educated guesses based on players’ recent histories, 2016 projections, and my own subjective hunches. These rankings account for differences in leagues and ballparks, which is to say that the San Francisco Giants land above the Colorado Rockies on the list even though the Rockies may well outscore their divisional rival. And nothing past the end of the 2016 season matters for these purposes: Young players only factor in if it looks like there’s a real chance they’ll impact their teams this season.
Here are all 30 Major League offenses, ranked:
30. Philadelphia Phillies
(PHOTO: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
The Phillies appear to be doing a nice job with their rebuilding phase, and now have a slew of well-regarded prospects set to play in the high minors in 2016. What they don’t have is any sort of certainty in the current big-league lineup. Maikel Franco appears the safest bet to further prove himself a good hitter after an excellent 80-game debut last season, and guys like Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr could take further steps forward. By next year, the Phillies should land way higher on the list.
29. San Diego Padres
The Padres continue to bask in the glow of winning the 2015 offseason, which seems good as they probably won’t win anything else anytime soon. Matt Kemp can still hit a bit and Wil Myers should be good if he can stay healthy. Yangervis Solarte appears to be a legit big-league infielder, but he’s a solid No. 7 hitter in most lineups and a potential No. 3 guy in San Diego.
28. Atlanta Braves
Say this for the Braves’ hitting: It’ll probably be better than their pitching. Franchise stalwart Freddie Freeman remains an elite offensive first baseman, and Ender Inciarte — acquired in the deal that sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks — appears a nice addition. Beyond that, the Braves will take chances on a bunch of veterans looking to revive their careers while they wait for the proverbial rebuilding tree to bear fruit. The race between the Braves and Phillies for the bottom of the NL East should be heated.
27. Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto is marooned on the Reds. With Todd Frazier departed, Jay Bruce coming off back-to-back below-average seasons, and Brandon Phillips no longer the hitter he was in his prime, Votto should remain the one glimmering megastar on a team that doesn’t look apt to compete. Catcher Devin Mesoraco says he’s fully healthy after hip surgery that ruined his 2015 season, and could brighten the Reds’ outlook if he shows he can stay healthy enough to again hit like he did in his outstanding 2014 campaign. Someone named Scott Schebler may start in left field.
26. Minnesota Twins
There’s a lot to like about the Twins moving forward: Miguel Sano jumped from Class AA to the the Majors in 2015 and didn’t miss a beat, bopping his way to a .916 OPS in 80 big-league games. Megaprospect Byron Buxton should get a full-time opportunity to make good on his pedigree in 2016, and Korean import Byung-Ho Park crosses the Pacific after three straight seasons with OPSes over 1.000 in the KBO. But the Twins in general do not get on base enough to sustain rallies and will need everything to fall right to see a plus offense in 2016. They’ve got more upside than other teams near the bottom of the list, but too much uncertainty to rank higher.
25. Colorado Rockies
(PHOTO: Chris Humphreys/USA TODAY Sports Images)
I was tempted to rank 29 teams and just give the Rockies their own separate category, because the Rockies face challenges unique among big-league clubs. Nolan Arenado is great, Charlie Blackmon is good, and Carlos Gonzalez scorched the ball in the second half of 2015, but newcomer Gerardo Parra is not an offensive upgrade over departed outfielder Corey Dickerson and there’s not much to be excited about elsewhere in the Rockies’ lineup. Except, of course, this: Mark Reynolds plays for the Rockies now. He’s probably going to hit 100 homers and strike out 300 times, and it’s going to be awesome.
24. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox endured an outrageously bad offensive season in 2015, finishing last in the American League with a .686 team OPS despite playing their home games in cozy U.S. Cellular Field. But they replaced several of last year’s biggest culprits with more compelling hitters, and a couple of underperforming veterans could bounce back in 2016. The trio of Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton and new import Todd Frazier give the White Sox a nice nucleus of offensive talent to attempt to score runs behind their sneaky-good pitching staff.
23. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers endured a rough season on both sides of the ball in 2015, but Ryan Braun and Khris Davis are both very good hitters and they should expect bounceback seasons from guys like Jonathan Lucroy and Scooter Gennett. Domingo Santana, acquired from the Astros in the Carlos Gomez trade, hit the tar out of the ball in Class AAA last year and posted respectable numbers in 58 big-league games. Another recent Astro, Chris Carter, will provide plenty of power if nothing else.
22. Oakland Athletics
The A’s have plenty of good hitters but no great ones. Josh Reddick and Steven Vogt are the best of the lot, and the A’s should again maximize platoon matchups to form lineups capable of keeping the line moving. But there’s no obvious home-run threat or on-base machine here.
21. Cleveland Indians
Cleveland had something of a rags-and-riches offense in 2015 and the additions of solid veterans Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli should help extend the lineup a bit. Michael Brantley is their best overall player, but a November shoulder surgery means he might miss the start of the season. If Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor can repeat their stellar performances and Carlos Santana and Yan Gomes can return to previous levels, the Indians might have a very good lineup even without Brantley. But all those guys will need to cover for some holes that still exist near the bottom of the order.
20. Tampa Bay Rays
(PHOTO: Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports Images)
Similar to the A’s but slightly better, the Rays have a long lineup of decent hitters and solid platoon options but no big offensive star. Evan Longoria is still only 30 and remains a good hitter, but has a .744 OPS since the start of the 2014 season after posting an .870 mark in the five seasons before that. The Rays have tons of depth practically everywhere except behind the plate, ensuring they should survive bouts of injury or ineffectiveness.
19. Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona made a bunch of big additions to its pitching staff this offseason, but the D-Backs offense features a bunch of question marks besides the excellent trio of David Peralta, A.J. Pollock and the totally awesome Paul Goldschmidt. If all goes right, it turns out that Wellington Castillo’s 2015 tenure in Arizona was for real, Yasmany Tomas improves in his second season stateside, and middle infielders Nick Ahmed and Jean Segura figure out ways to at least get on base at a 30% clip to give more opportunities to Goldschmidt, who rules.
18. Baltimore Orioles
Bringing back Chris Davis gave the Orioles a respectable offense, as he rejoins Manny Machado and Adam Jones to make a powerful trio near the middle of Baltimore’s lineup. The Orioles’ offensive fates will be tied in part to Korean import Hyun-Soo Kim, expected to bat leadoff, and 24-year-old second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who showed big power when healthy in 2015. But shortstop J.J. Hardy had a .564 OPS last season and none of the Orioles’ likely DH options inspires a lot of confidence.
17. Miami Marlins
If Giancarlo Stanton stays healthy, the 2016 Marlins should hit better than you might think they will. Nearly everyone in the lineup is entering the prime of his career, and Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich all hit well in 2015. Plus they’ve still got Ichiro, which is super fun.
16. New York Yankees
Baseball’s No. 1 dad-strength offense, the Yankees entered 2015 featuring a ton of old players coming off lost seasons and now enter 2016 featuring a ton of even older players coming off strong ones. Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran all carried the Yanks at times last year, and the club will need them to stay healthy to compete again. Veterans Chase Headley and Jacoby Ellsbury appear strong bets to rebound from tough 2015 campaigns.
15. Seattle Mariners
(Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports)
It says here that Robinson Cano is one of the best and most consistent players of his generation, his first-half struggles to 2015 are behind him, and all talk of his negative attitude is overblown: The guy has played in at least 156 games every year since 2007, so there’s only so unmotivated he could be. And with Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and new imports Nori Aoki and Adam Lind around him, the Mariners should score plenty of runs even in their spacious home park.
14. Texas Rangers
Some people I very much respect believe the Rangers will have a Top 5 MLB offense, and it’s not hard to see how that could be the case: At this point on the list, that’s true of every team. Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo and Adrian Beltre will all be good, but the Rangers will need guys like Mitch Moreland and Robinson Chirinos to repeat the career seasons they enjoyed in 2015, and I’m skeptical. Josh Hamilton and mashing prospect Joey Gallo represent big wild cards here.
13. Houston Astros
Good and getting better: None of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, the Astros’ three best hitters, will be older than 27 on opening day, and the Astros have plenty of depth behind them in the lineup and in the high minors. Look out for prospect A.J. Reed, a first baseman who hit 34 homers with a 1.044 OPS across Class A and Class AA ball in 2015. He could get a chance if another first-base prospect, Jonathan Singleton, falters.
12. Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout is the best player in baseball and the difference between the Los Angeles Angels and a bottom-half offense. Kole Calhoun and Albert Pujols are really the only other guys who look likely to be above average hitters, but Trout is so good he pulls the whole group up to No. 12.
11. St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis lost a steady performer when Jason Heyward fled for the Cubs in free agency and did not do much to replace him. They lack a big home run threat, and they’ll put a lot of faith in guys who spent much of 2015 on the disabled list or in the minor leagues. But they’ve got a deep lineup with a handful of consistently good hitters like Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday, and young outfielder Randal Grichuk will be a star if he can stay healthy and repeat his 2015 performance.
10. Kansas City Royals
(USA TODAY Sports Images)
It’s hard to know what to do with the Royals, since it’s pretty clear they’re not trying to put together an offense the same way the 29 other teams will. Contact is their whole thing, as you’ve probably heard, and it certainly worked for them in 2015 even if the club had about a league-average OPS. The core of their world-champion lineup returns intact for 2016, but so do the middle infielders who couldn’t hit a lick.
9. Washington Nationals
Having Bryce Harper practically ensures the Nationals a good offense, and a decent group around him means it could be an elite one. But veterans Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman have battled injuries and ineffectiveness in recent seasons, catcher Wilson Ramos didn’t hit at all in 2015, and new left fielder Ben Revere provides little more than on-base skills. Anthony Rendon should be better, and free-agent acquisition Daniel Murphy is a consistently above-average offensive player.
8. New York Mets
The Mets had an inconceivably bad lineup at times in 2015, but the outlook for 2016 looks quite a bit brighter after the acquisitions of Yoenis Cespedes and the ascendence of outfield prospect Michael Conforto. David Wright missed most of last season due to a chronic back condition that won’t go away in 2016, but he hit a bit like his old self upon his return. Lucas Duda is quietly one of the NL’s best power hitters.
7. Boston Red Sox
(USA TODAY Sports Images)
Red Sox icon David Ortiz will hang ’em up after the 2016 season, but still ranked among the American League’s elite hitters at age 39 in 2015. Veterans Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval both look like good bets to again hit like they used to, and young stars Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts will work to improve on breakout campaigns.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
(USA TODAY Sports Images)
RIP Andrew McCutchen’s hair. Long live the rest of Andrew McCutchen, all of which is awesome at baseball. And the Pirates should once again put a good team around him, especially if infielder Jung-Ho Kang can return from injury and play like he did for most of 2015. Starling Marte is one of the game’s most underrated players, and Gregory Polanco’s strong second half suggests he may be ready to make good on his pedigree.
5. San Francisco Giants
(Jake Roth/USA TODAY Sports Images)
Few NL lineups can match the Giants’ for length, especially after the surprisingly affordable addition of outfielder Denard Span. The club’s core of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy are all between 25 and 30 years old and coming off great offensive seasons, and the Giants should benefit from a full season of veteran Hunter Pence.
4. Detroit Tigers
(Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports)
Miguel Cabrera missed significant time with injuries for the first season of his career in 2015, but still rocked a .974 OPS over 119 games. At 37 and coming off a brutal year, Victor Martinez could be at the end of his line. But J.D. Martinez has now crushed the ball for two straight seasons in Detroit, new import Justin Upton should flourish in a better lineup, and infielders Ian Kinsler, Jose Iglesias and Nick Castellanos have the makings of a nice supporting cast.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Hey, remember Yasiel Puig? Even after his injury-plagued 2015 season, Puig owns an .858 big-league OPS and is still only 25. The Dodgers had a relatively quiet offseason by their absurd standards, but they’ve got a whole host of guys who hit well and a few with real chances of performing like superstars. If young shortstop Corey Seager is anywhere near as good as he looked in his 27-game big-league stint in 2015, look out. No team combines mega-salaried veterans with brilliant looking young players quite like the Dodgers do.
2. Chicago Cubs
(PHOTO: Matt Marton/USA TODAY Sports Images)
Look upon the Cubs’ offense and despair. The only things keeping the North Side club out of the top spot here are the astonishing 2015 output of the No. 1 team and the relative lack of track records for young stars Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber. But everything we’ve seen from those guys to date suggests they’re very much for real, Anthony Rizzo is awesome, and the additions of Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist suggest the Cubs won’t have a bad hitter anywhere close to their lineup. Chris Coghlan owns a .793 OPS since joining the team in 2014 and plays all over the place, but it’s not clear there’s room for him to be more than a part-time player on the 2016 Cubs. It’s fairly terrifying.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
(PHOTO: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Edwin Encarnacion ranked fifth in the American League with a .929 OPS last season and he’s probably the Blue Jays’ third best hitter, after reigning MVP Josh Donaldson and bat-flip hero Jose Bautista. Troy Tulowitzki, who has played like a Hall of Famer most of the time he has been healthy in his career, could enjoy a huge year with a full season in such a potent lineup. There are still some question marks in the back part of Toronto’s lineup, but the front part looks strong enough to make them the favorite to repeat as baseball’s premier offensive team.
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