The NBA season begins tonight! To get you fired up and to help you get a read on the upcoming season, I’ve taken a look at every NBA over/under win total and made my predictions for wins from each team. (Over/under lines provided by Bovada, with whom we have no affiliation.) Who delivers? Who underperforms? Let’s take a look:
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Atlanta Hawks — O/U 49.5
Prediction: 50 wins OVER
The Atlanta Hawks were the surprise of the NBA last season, winning 60 games with a balanced attack and unreal outside shooting. They sputtered in the playoffs, though, showing their vulnerabilities, and this offseason saw the departure of team leader DeMarre Carroll to Toronto.
But head coach Mike Budenholzer is still there, as is Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague, and an emerging Dennis Schroder. Why are they supposed to be more than 10 games worse? I don’t think they win 60 games again, but this team will be at the top of the East.
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Boston Celtics — O/U 44.5
Prediction: 46 wins OVER
The Boston Celtics only won 40 games last season, but were one of the best teams in the league — Eastern Conference or Western Conference — over the last two months. Brad Stevens is a top 5 coach in the NBA, Isaiah Thomas is a dynamic scorer off the bench, and the offseason additions of David Lee and Amir Johnson only make this team better. If Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart keep developing, this team should be in the playoff picture.
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Brooklyn Nets — O/U 27.5
Prediction: 23 wins UNDER
This is a tear-down year for the Brooklyn Nets. The team is finally getting out from under the bloated salaries it acquired a few years back when they wanted to make a run at the title, and are desperately trying to recoup some of the draft picks they lost in that process. Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson will win them a few games, but this is a team trying to start over from scratch. This will be a tough year for Nets fans.
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Charlotte Hornets — O/U 33.5
Prediction: 30 wins UNDER
I liked the Hornets a bit this season, right up until the announcement that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist tore his labrum and would miss perhaps the entire season. Without MKG, I just don’t see how this team defends against anyone. Al Jefferson will do his thing in the post, “Cardiac” Kemba Walker will win a few games by going lights out and making everything, and Frank Kaminsky Jr. will be fun to watch. But wins will be tough to come by.
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Chicago Bulls — O/U 49.5
Prediction: 51 wins OVER
This is a strange thing to say, but my biggest fear for the Chicago Bulls this season is that they have too many good players. New head coach Fred Hoiberg is talking about starting Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol at the 4 and 5, leaving Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah on the bench. With the addition of rookie Bobby Portis, who looks good, I just don’t see how Hoiberg is going to balance minutes in the frontcourt.
That being said, this is a good problem to have. Jimmy Butler is a star, and if Derrick Rose can give them 75% of his MVP season, this team will be a top-2 seed in the East.
AP Photo/Ron Schwane
Cleveland Cavaliers — O/U 57.5
Prediction: 55 wins UNDER
The Cavaliers are a favorite to win the NBA Finals, and I don’t disagree with that assessment. The Warriors are a better team, I think, but the Cavaliers have the easiest route to the Finals. My only issue with picking the over here is health — the Cavaliers are banged up. LeBron James is going to rest as the season progresses, preserving his body for another run at a title. I think the Cavaliers could get to 60 wins, absolutely, but if they’re a few games up on everyone with a month left in the season, I doubt they’ll kill themselves to get there.
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Dallas Mavericks — O/U 37.5
Prediction: 39 wins OVER
I know the Mavericks don’t have the team they thought they would. By losing out on the DeAndre Jordan sweepstakes, this is a team that might start Zaza Pachulia at center. (Yikes.) Monta Ellis is gone. Chandler Parsons is hurt. I understand the knocks against this team. That being said, I don’t see Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki allowing this team to fall in the tank. Carlisle is too good a coach for that to happen, and the Mavericks are always one Mark Cuban move away from relevance. Don’t sleep on Dallas.
AP Photo/David Zalubowski
Denver Nuggets — O/U 27.5
Prediction: 29 wins OVER
I like this Nuggets team, and think Danilo Gallinari is a good candidate for comeback player of the year. Rookie Emmanuel Mudiay will be allowed to step in and contribute right away (he’s my pick for Rookie of the Year), but this is still a team that’s a long way off. Playing in the Western Conference isn’t going to help anything. Nuggets fans are right to be excited for the future, but this team is a year or two away.
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Detroit Pistons — O/U 36.5
Prediction: 37 wins OVER
The Pistons had a nightmarish start to last season and still finished the year with 32 wins. While I’m not convinced that Stan Van Gundy is equipped to both coach the team and run the front office (he’s a great coach and one job in the NBA is hard enough), this team will be better. Reggie Jackson will be able to have the ball in his hands, and Andre Drummond will have more room to work in the post. I think this team just misses the playoffs, but I think a 37-win season is feasible.
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
Golden State Warriors — O/U 59.5
Prediction: 61 wins OVER
The Cavaliers are the favorites to win the title. The Spurs have a lot of offseason buzz. The Clippers bench got better. I understand why people might be a teensy bit down on a Warriors chance to repeat for a title (repeating any year is really, really hard), but this is still the best team in the NBA. They’re young, their entire core is back, and Stephen Curry is still a wizard. Even with head coach Steve Kerr taking time to treat his ailing back, this team will win a lot of games. Maybe not 67 wins like last year, but they’ll win 60, at least.
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Houston Rockets — O/U 54.5
Prediction: 57 wins OVER
I like this Rockets team. I understand that some people may be concerned about the addition of Ty Lawson and what that will do to the rhythm of the Houston offense, and I fully expect there to be a few hiccoughs along the way. But this is a stacked, stacked team and James Harden is a legit MVP candidate. Dwight Howard will continue to make unfunny jokes and anchor the defense, and if they can get Lawson in the swing of things by the All-Star break, this will be a team built to make a deep run.
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Indiana Pacers — O/U 41.5
Prediction: 38 wins UNDER
Paul George is back, and the Pacers will be better for it. The rest of the team just seems oddly put together, though. Three ball-dominant guards in Monta Ellis, George Hill and Rodney Stuckey will have to find time to share the ball, and the crowded backcourt has the Pacers talking about starting George at the 4, which I’m OK with in stretches, but don’t like what that’s going to do to his body over the course of the season. Rookie Myles Turner will be asked to come in and protect the rim, but I think he’s a year or two away. This will be a fine season for the Pacers, but a bumpy one.
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L.A. Clippers — O/U 56.5
Prediction: 55 wins UNDER
This Clippers team is going to be good. Very good. Blake Griffin is my sneaky choice for MVP, Chris Paul is still the best point guard alive, they got back DeAndre Jordan after his dalliance with the Mavericks, and the addition of Lance Stephenson is a good gamble. So why am I picking the under? Because winning 57 games in the West is really, really hard. I think the Clippers will be great this season, but Paul and Griffin have made postseason runs for years now, and they’re going to need rest. I think 55 wins is a safe bet.
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L.A. Lakers — O/U 28.5
Prediction: 28 wins UNDER
The Los Angeles Lakers are, at the very least, going to be fun this year. Rookie D’Angelo Russell is a gifted passer, and Julius Randle will return to show the league what he can do. The big question hanging over the whole thing is Kobe Bryant. Will he embrace his role as mentor and try to show the young players how to play? Or will he go diva and start jacking 20-footers over and over while the rest of the team looks on?
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Memphis Grizzlies — O/U 50.5
Prediction: 51 wins OVER
Always under-appreciated, the Grizzlies bring back just about everyone who matters, and somehow got meaner with the addition of Matt Barnes. This is an old-school team that demands to be described in words that start with the letter “G” — gritting, grinding, gutty. No one wants to play them, and for good reason. They’ve gotten older, yes, but they’ll still be in the conversation at the end of the year.
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Miami Heat — O/U 46.5
Prediction: 47 wins OVER
The most intriguing team in the NBA. I love their starting five, and the return of Chris Bosh, along with the addition of rookie Justise Winslow, will make this team very, very intriguing. If the Heat pull off a whispered-about trade including some combination of Winslow, Josh McRoberts, Hassan Whiteside and a first-rounder for Carmelo Anthony, they become even more intriguing. Pat Reilly will not rest until this team is challenging for a title again.
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Milwaukee Bucks — O/U 44.5
Prediction: 44 wins UNDER
My favorite League Pass team, the Bucks are young, fun, exciting, and they have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is the greatest person on the face of the Earth. Jason Kidd will have another year to work on the team’s defense, which relies on lots of fast guys with long arms switching all over the place. I like this team to make the playoffs, but I think Vegas got it right with the 44.5 O/U line, and see them right at 44 wins.
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Minnesota Timberwolves — O/U 27.5
Prediction: 24 wins UNDER
Another team I love, another team I think is a year away. Andrew Wiggins could be an All Star, Kevin Garnett will provide valuable veteran leadership, and rookie Karl-Anthony Towns will come in and contribute right away. But this team lacks outside shooting, and rim protection is still an issue. This team is poised to make a jump, but that jump doesn’t come this year.
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New Orleans Pelicans — O/U 47.5
Prediction: 48 wins OVER
Anthony Davis has arrived. The big man is poised to make the leap to superstardom this year (he got to stardom last year) and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he’s named the MVP this year at age 23. New head coach Alvin Gentry will improve the offense, and a Ryan Anderson bounce back year is due. My one concern: Injuries. Jrue Holiday still isn’t right and Tyreke Evans just underwent surgery and could miss two months. I still think the Pelicans get the over — barely — but it will be tough.
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New York Knicks — O/U 29.5
Prediction: 31 wins OVER
I have no idea if Carmelo Anthony will be on this team at the end of the season, but I have a good idea that the Knicks will be better this year. Robin Lopez will provide desperately needed help on defense, and if Anthony can play as well as we know he’s able to, the team will win games, especially in the dour Eastern Conference. This is the prediction I feel the least strongly about, though — I could see this team winning anything between 25 and 43 games.
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Oklahoma City Thunder — O/U 56.5
Prediction: 55 wins UNDER
The Thunder should have everyone terrified. Kevin Durant is back and has looked phenomenal in preseason, and Russell Westbrook is still the most exciting player in the league. New head coach Billy Donovan will look to inspire the team and get them to the next level, and the great Serge Ibaka is still there, anchoring the defense.
I’m still picking the under, here. Mostly because, as I said with the Clippers, the West is really, really hard. But also partially because I’m a little concerned with Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters, two guys who need the ball in their hands. When the ball is in their hands, it’s not in Durant or Westbrook’s hands, and that’s a problem.
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Orlando Magic — O/U 34.5
Prediction: 34 wins UNDER
Another young and fun team. Victor Oladipo could become one of the better players in the league this year, and point guard Elfrid Payton is a great playmaker in the making. The addition of Scott Skiles at head coach is also a massive upgrade from last year. But the Magic won 25 games last year, and while they’re better this year, I don’t know if they’re 10 games better. I say stick with the under, barely.
AP Photo/Rick Bowmer
Philadelphia 76ers — O/U 21.5
Prediction: 20 wins UNDER
The biggest issue with the 76ers this year is that I don’t think anyone in management particularly cares if they win. They’ve got exciting young talent in Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, and Nik Stauskas, but the team just cut Pierre Jackson (who’d been offered a four-year deal) and don’t seem to particularly care about this season. They know they’re not winning a title, so, Sam Hinkie’s thinking goes, what’s the point? I know this team will try hard, and they’ll win more games than last year, but not many more.
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Phoenix Suns — O/U 36.5
Prediction: 35 wins UNDER
The Phoenix Suns were one of the most exciting and surprising teams in the league two years ago, but things have gone disastrously since then. Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic are gone, and while this team has some nice pieces in Eric Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler, and Brandon Knight, the roster is thin, and if players are unhappy (Markieff Morris has already said he wants out), I could see the Suns’ brass blowing the whole thing up.
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Portland Trail Blazers — O/U 27.5
Prediction: 23 wins UNDER
Eesh. Everyone on the Blazers is gone. LaMarcus Aldridge: gone. Robin Lopez: gone. Nicholas Batum: gone. Wes Matthews: gone. All that remains is Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and a lot of young guys with upside. This team will win some exciting games, and Dame Lillard is always good for a 40-point night a few times a season, but this team is going to struggle mightily in the West.
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Sacramento Kings — O/U 34.5
Prediction: 33 wins UNDER
I don’t feel good about this prediction. If DeMarcus Cousins has a monster year and the team comes together around him, they could easily win 45 games. I repeat: Easily. But I’m betting against dysfunction here. Head coach George Karl has already clashed with Boogie and point guard Rajon Rondo. Kings owner Vivek Ranadive looms over everything, making wild suggestions and changing the team’s management constantly. There are too many wild cards in play in Sacramento.
AP Photo/Eric Gay
San Antonio Spurs — O/U 57.5
Prediction: 54 wins UNDER
The Spurs are a monster. They have the best coach in the league in Gregg Popovich, they still have Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, and they’ve added LaMarcus Aldridge and David West. The only thing keeping them under 57 wins? Themselves. The Spurs will rest everyone, all season, making sure the aging team is in prime condition come playoff time. They’ll throw away the second game of back-to-backs because they don’t care. Popovich has one thing on his mind — a title — and he doesn’t care how he gets there.
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Toronto Raptors — O/U 46.5
Prediction: 43 wins UNDER
I dig this Raptors team, and think the addition of DeMarre Carroll is a nice add. That and Kyle Lowry losing a ton of weight in the offseason has to have Raptors fans excited. But Amir Johnson is gone, and I’m not sure how sold GM Masai Ujiri is on his current roster. If he doesn’t think they can win him a title, he is not afraid to cut anyone at a moment’s notice. With the Bulls, Cavaliers, Hawks, Heat and Wizards looking strong, I think the Raptors take a step back this year.
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Utah Jazz — O/U 42.5
Prediction: 41 wins UNDER
This is a fun Jazz team with a likable star in the making, Gordon Hayward, who as the photo above shows you, got jacked this season. Rudy Gobert is a defensive monster, a one-man rim-protecting wrecking crew, and Derrick Favors remains one of the most underrated players in the league. If this team played in the East, I’d slot them to win 45 games and be a 5-seed, but they don’t, so I won’t.
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Washington Wizards — O/U 46.5
Prediction: 48 wins OVER
I think John Wall has a monster year for the Wizards, and the continued development of Otto Porter will help this team a lot. Most important, though, is the continued development of head coach Randy Wittman, who has seen the light of the 3-ball and has his team shooting them at a rate they never have before. If Wittman isn’t afraid to go small and try creative lineups, this team will do some damage in the East.