Phil and David break down everything you need to know about Diego vs. Held for UFC in Mexico City, and everything you don't about Diego's likely last hurrah.
Diego Sanchez gets to live the dream (or the nightmare) against Marcin Held this November 5, 2016 at the Ciudad de México Arena in Mexico City, Mexico.
One sentence summary
Phil: On the last leg of his UFC career, Diego tries not to lose one of his own.
David: Diego's 'last cartwheel in Paris'.
Stats
Record: Diego Sanchez 26-9 Marcin Held 22-4
Odds: Diego Sanchez +235 Marcin Held -275
History / Introduction to the fighters
David: Diego's career all but has a pair of wikipedia dates attached to the activity log. The only thing missing is his signature. He's had a career he can be proud of, though. Well, inside the cage at least. Between his grappling talents (at his most focused, in his youth, he was a pure firestarter), and ability to withstand earth, fire, and ice with his ‘Mexican Jaw', the MMA world will get just a little less bizarre when he retires. And that's unfortunate.
Phil: While Diego belongs in the upper tier of MMA eccentrics (no mean feat), this also obscures that he is reportedly one of MMA's good guys- a genuinely sweet, nice fellow who we very rarely get to see because he's obscured by the mythic levels of weirdness he projects, which are only amplified by the prospect of a fight. His career (most specifically his late career) has been a case study in the possibilities and, sadly, the limitations of sheer willpower- those moments like his third rounds against Ellenberger, Kampmann and Melendez when it seemed like the frog actually was going to jump out of the well, and he was going to pull a miracle win out of nowhere. In the end, technical ability almost always beats just wanting it more, and father time beats everyone.
David: Held is a prospect of discernible talents. Just 24 years old, he's already split the majority of his career in Poland, and Bellator. Solid experience for a prospect who continues to grow. The fight itself speaks to the UFC's support for him: it's an awful stylistic matchup for Diego. Maybe too awful? Whatever the case, it'd be wise for Held not to mistake the asparagus for the avocado (I can't explain this one, other than being a confusing reference to TUF).
Phil: How Held develops is an interesting one, because he clearly believes deeply in his submission and leg lock game. However, that's been proven time and again to be an approach which simply.... crumbles at some point. Leg locks are just too risky. So, in many ways he's going to have either retool his approach to some extent or chance becoming a good novelty fighter. We've seen his hands and takedowns improve in recent fights, but is that enough to make it in the lightweight shark tank?
What's at stake?
David: The manner in which Diego is remembered. A prolonged beating will keep the opinion pieces about career declines flowing. A quick finish will be disappointing for all. A win, however unlikely, might prolong his short career.
Phil: The crowd will go nuts for a Diego win. Other than that, you've captured the existential gloom of it nicely.
Where do they want it?
David: Diego used to be a focused 67' Chevelle of grappling aggression. His wrestling was never great, and it's actually gotten worse over time, but at least it gave Sanchez the necessary tunnel vision to be effective. That and it suited his somewhat "primal" demeanor. Somewhere along the way he thought he could win fights with a Gatti like fortitude. Maybe it was the awkward knockout over Riggs that started it all. Or maybe it was the A & P lesson on Latino square jawedness. Whatever the case, that loss of tunnel vision hindered his game short term, which spiraled into a long term health issue. Diego is still a sparkplug of scramble capacity. When he transitions from striking to grappling, his brain can't compute the addition, so he's not a great phase shifter, but when it happens by accident he's more challenging to opponents.
Phil: Partially it's that Diego's wrestling approach has faded because wrestling just isn't as effective as it once was. Striking is increasingly the dominant skillset in the modern game, and those that started off specializing in it (Lawler, Bisping) or continued to (the Diaz brothers) have tended to outlast their contemporaries.
But yes, the lack of effective phase shifting is a big part of it. Either Diego is doggedly (and often hopelessly) holding onto a single leg, or he's gritting his teeth and swinging wild haymakers. If he can use it, he's still a decent scrambler and a scary top position grappler with nasty ground and pound, but the interstitial pieces to get him there don't really exist unless his opponent badly gasses himself out.
David: Held has been making grappling dummies of opponents in FILA, IBJJF, and Bellator since 2008. He's a highly fluid submission specialist willing to go for the legs in the spirit of Imanari, Kitaoka, and Aoki. What makes Held a little more interesting is that his striking has risen from adequate, to potent. When he commits to his left jab, his combination of reach and speed allow him to the option of pressuring further with combinations, or opening up the takedown opportunity. He looks comfortable in the pocket too, which further accentuates his game.
Phil: In his last fight, Held kept attacking for the leglock submissions, but they weren't really what won it for him: instead it was his stand-up, and double leg takedowns into ground and pound. That says good things for his development. Unlike many leg lock specialists who get obsessed by the submission to the exclusion of all else, Held is a crafty chain wrestler who will switch from doubles to singles to inside trips.
The other notable is how physically tough Held is, which is something which also tends to be oddly uncommon amongst leg lock guys. He's been tapped before (primarily due to getting over-zealous) but he's never really been close to being finished by strikes.
Insight from Past Fights
David: Sanchez would have never been knocked out by Joe Lauzon in his prime. I don't care if Lauzon had Vision's forehead gem attached to his fists. Jake Ellenberger couldn't do it as far back as 2012. And Lauzon, while a hard puncher, has never been a knockout puncher. That tells you everything you need to know about Diego's withering.
Phil: The Will Brooks fight showed how effective Held's wrestling could be even against someone with an excellent grappling base and camp. However, it's notable that outgrappling Diego has historically never been the recipe for beating him.
X-Factors
David: See above.
Phil: That Mexico city air, and the octagon jitters. If Diego has a path to victory, it's almost certainly by tiring Held out- if all other attributes have started to fade for Diego, he's still at least got a gas tank topped up by a few gallons of crazy.
Prognostication
David: Held just holds too many keys to unlock Diego's concussion gate. His striking, even inside where his knees are more than just moderately brutal, is superior, and his grappling even has an edge on Diego. Marcin Held by TKO (because of a cut[/Tiki]) round 3.
Phil: Stylistically, I actually think this could pose some problems for Held. He's not a dynamite puncher (even less so than Lauzon), his gas tank has been good but not fantastic, and he might actually put himself on the bottom and thus enable Sanchez' excellent but rarely-seen top game. That said, I just can't pick Diego to beat a young, athletic and skilled up-and-comer. Marcin Held by unanimous decision.