2015-11-10

Latest updates as votes are counted, with opposition National League for Democracy leading results so far

Aung San Suu Kyi on track to take two-thirds of seats

Analysis: will the military let Aung San Suu Kyi govern?

8.30am GMT

The latest drops in the drip-drip process of the official announcement of the election results are about to occur again.

LIVE on #Periscope: #MyanmarElectionResults announcement, Nov 10, 3 PMK https://t.co/hU4pUOVlto

8.25am GMT

The elections were not “free and fair” former Irish president Mary Robinson has told Voice of America.

Earlier, Robinson who is part of Carter Center observer mission, congratulated Myanmar on the conduct of the election. But she clarified her remarks by pointing out the flaws in the process.

Ex Ireland Pres. Robinson after observing #BurmaVotes2015 tells me "Of course you can't call it free and fair..." pic.twitter.com/v0IuoVGlPE

Seats reserved for military, problems with constitution, disenfranchised Muslims, conflict are flaws for #BurmaVotes2015, says Robinson.

"Too soon to predict precisely what outcome would be," says Robinson. #BurmaVotes2015 @VOANews pic.twitter.com/A49Fz2SP78

8.18am GMT

As the military-drafted constitution won’t allow Aung San Suu Kyi to be president she appears to be preparing to bypass the institution altogether.

In a new interview with Channel News Asia the National League for Democracy leader is quoted as saying that president will have no authority if her party is allowed to form a government.

#NLD chief #AungSanSuuKyi: the president will have "no authority" if she wins and forms government. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/PeCHOjWv6m

If #NLD wins #MyanmarElection, #AungSanSuuKyi says president will be appointed "just to meet requirements of constitution" 2/3

#AungSanSuuKyi: President chosen, if #NLD wins, will act according to decisions of her and party and says he must understand that 3/3

8.00am GMT

There’s been more international praise for the conduct of the election and at least one world leader has congratulated Aung San Suu Kyi on her party’s victory.

In a message that appeared to be aimed the ruling generals UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged Myanmar “maintain the dignified spirit, calm and respect throughout the completion of the electoral process.”

The Secretary-General wishes to congratulate the broad masses of the people from various walks of life in Myanmar for their patience, dignity and enthusiasm as they participated in Sunday’s epochal polls. He commends the Union Election Commission as well as its various state, regional and local institutions for their important work. Observers to the process, both domestic and international, have also witnessed this momentous event.

I'd like to warmly congratulate the Myanmar people moving this country forward - Mary Robinson @CarterCenter pic.twitter.com/2yihZB16jp

Thirst step towards democracy in #MyanmarElection . Congratulations to Aung San Suu Kyi

7.43am GMT

Here’s where things stand currently as votes continue to be counted in Myanmar’s election:

Our USDP lost completely. The NLD has won. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has to take responsibility now … we congratulate them anyway.

7.17am GMT

Official results have been trickling out very slowly – there have been only two updates today, only one of which was for the national parliament (the other was for regional legislatures).

The next tranche is not due to be released by the electoral commission until 3pm local time (7.30pm AEDT/8.30am GMT). Results from only 88 of the 323 contested seats in the lower house have so far been published.

The Union Election Commission has been delaying intentionally because maybe they want to play a trick or something.

It doesn’t make sense that they are releasing the results piece by piece. It shouldn’t be like that.

7.05am GMT

Jason Carter is asked whether members of the armed forces were able to exercise their right to vote in secret:

We do have some concerns with regard to the secrecy of the vote.

6.54am GMT

As well as the EU observers – see a summary of their conclusions here – the US Carter Center had representatives in Myanmar to monitor the election, my colleague Oliver Holmes reports.

“Voting process on election day was a success,” said Jason Carter, trustee of the Carter Center and grandson of former US president Jimmy Carter.

But he added: “We have to acknowledge that Myanmar’s transition to democracy is incomplete and ongoing”, citing the 25% of seats reserved for the military in parliament and restrictions on the press.

6.37am GMT

A senior member of the military-backed ruling USDP has reportedly conceded that the party has lost to Suu Kyi’s NLD.

Senior USDP member and retired army officer Kyi Win told news agency AFP from party headquarters in the capital Naypyidaw:

Our USDP lost completely. The NLD has won.

This is the fate of our country. Let them (the NLD) work.

6.27am GMT

Aung San Suu Kyi has given her first post-election interview to the BBC.

She said the polls were not fair but had been “largely free”.

The times are different, the people are different. I find the people are far more politicised now than they were back, not just in 1990, but much more politicised than they were in 2012, when we campaigned for the by-election, and very much more alert to what it going on around them.

And then of course the communications revolution, which has made a huge difference; everybody gets on to the net and informs everybody else of what is happening.

6.18am GMT

Fresh results from Myanmar’s election on Tuesday showed Aung San Suu Kyi’s opposition party winning dozens more seats in parliament as observers declared the poll “credible and transparent”, writes Oliver Holmes from Yangon.

Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) said its own tally of results posted at polling stations around the country showed it was on track to take more than two-thirds of seats in the lower house of parliament, enough to form Myanmar’s first democratically elected government since the early 1960s.

Related: Myanmar election: Aung San Suu Kyi on track to take two-thirds of seats

6.03am GMT

With the announcement of 34 results in the Pyithu hluttaw (lower house of parliament), here is the latest tally:

5.49am GMT

The electoral commission has just released another tranche of results for the lower house.

Of 34 seats newly announced, the NLD has taken 29.

5.38am GMT

Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, chief observer for the EU election observation mission, has told reporters that Myanmar’s election was “credible” and “transparent” – but would not use the label “free and fair”.

Here are the key points from his findings:

The country has come a long way but we do not use the simplistic label.

5.18am GMT

While that press conference was ongoing, the BBC’s Fergal Keane has interviewed Aung San Suu Kyi, who appears to be buoyant about the unfolding results: 75% would be a majority for the NLD.

#AungSanSuuKyi In exclusive BBC iv she tells me believes party has won at least 75 percent of vote @BBCBreaking @BBCWorld

#AungSanSuuKyi 2/ She tells me military must respect people's will."The times are different,the people are different."

#AungSanSuuKyi 3/ in first interview since results says people would not stand for obstruction

#AungSanSuuKyi 4/ "We are just beginning to teach the world about Burmese democracy."

#AungSanSuuKyi 5/She told also that her party would be dignified in its response to results. Message: no triumphalism.

#AungSanSuuKyi 6/ Important pledge 2 targeted Muslims. "We will protect them." Says those who inflame hatred should face prosecution.

5.14am GMT

Will the results be accepted by all sides, Lambsdorff asks. He says the earliest comments from those who have lost their seats have been “encouraging”.

The credibility of an election rests on the acceptance of results by all sides, he says. That is what makes its results sustainable.

5.09am GMT

On Muslim voters, particularly the Rohingya, Lamsbdorff says the country needs to find ways to enfranchise them.

It is difficult to understand why they should not be able to stand for or vote in elections, he adds.

5.02am GMT

The election cannot be deemed “truly genuine” because 100% of seats were not up for election, says Lambsdorff. (One-quarter were reserved for the military.)

But … contrary to expectations, we did not have any problems accessing military installations on election day.

4.58am GMT

The overall rating for the entire voting process was 95% positive, the EU mission has concluded.

In a small number of polling stations – around 7% – some voters could not find their names on the register.

4.53am GMT

Questioned on whether the election was “free and fair”, Lambsdorff says the EU mission does not use those terms.

There have been “certain limitations” in the elections here, he says.

The country has come a long way … but we don’t use the simplistic label here.

Does it make it 100% fair? There’s still room for improvement.

4.50am GMT

Portugal MEP Ana Gomes is speaking now. She reiterates concerns over the military’s control of 25% of parliamentary seats and the exclusion of certain ethnic groups from voting – a reference to the Rohingya Muslims.

You can read more about the disenfranchised Rohingya here:

Related: No vote, no candidates: Myanmar's Muslims barred from their own election

4.46am GMT

Lambsdorff: We are happy to be part of this process and we congratulate the people of Myanmar.

4.45am GMT

Privately-owned media covered the election campaign in much more detail than state-owned media, Lambsdorff notes.

He goes on to say that observers will remain in Myanmar until 2 December to deal with any election-related complaints.

4.44am GMT

There were a “very, very low number” of Muslim candidates, as well as women, Lambsdorff adds.

This needs to be addressed, he says.

EU Chief Observer- concern candidate selection & verification resulting in "very low number of Muslim candidates remaining" #MyanmarElection

4.43am GMT

The legal and constitutional framework needs to be reformed before a genuinely free election can take place, he says.

At least one of the parliament chambers must have 100% of seats up for election, he says (in this election, the army has reserved 25% of the lower house for itself).

4.42am GMT

On the counting of results, Lambsdorff says the election is not over yet.

Until the final results are published, this election is still ongoing.

4.40am GMT

In most cases, observers were welcomed by election officials, “helping to create more transparency in the process”, Lambsdorff says.

He says there could be more transparency at a national level; at a regional level it was better.

4.39am GMT

“The issue of the voter register was front and centre,” Lambsdorff says.

His observers found most voters were on the list.

4.38am GMT

Lambsdorff says the vast majority of polling stations opened on time, with staff and voting papers there – this is very good, he says.

Election administration performed a “very good job”, he says.

Breaking: "95% of ratings were good or very good," EU observation mission to Myanmar elections.

4.37am GMT

Alexander Lambsdorff, chief observer of the European Union election observation mission, which has 150 observers in Myanmar to monitor the conduct of the election, is about to speak to reporters in Yangon.

Full house at EU press conference on Myanmar election monitoring findings. Was it free and transparent? pic.twitter.com/rs89C8wC5v

4.26am GMT

Myanmar’s newspapers feature the unusual sight of Suu Kyi and the NLD splashed across their front pages today. As Associated Press reports:

Many people in the streets of Yangon were sitting on sidewalks, in rickshaws or on front porches reading morning newspapers splashed with Aung San Suu Kyi’s picture, as the nation awaited final confirmation of her election victory.

The front pages were another reflection of the massive changes in this long-repressed country: during the junta’s rule, photos of Suu Kyi were banned from media.

Myanmar state media headline today says "NLD dominates". pic.twitter.com/3aZDuT8MOr

4.09am GMT

The European Union election observation mission has had 150 observers in Myanmar to monitor polling day. It’s about to present its report in Yangon on how the election was run.

My colleague Oliver Holmes will be there and I’ll have updates on the live blog from the press conference, which is due to begin at 11am local time (3.30pm AEDT/4.30am GMT).

#EUEOM #Myanmar observes the entire electoral process: legal framework, election administration, campaign, media etc of the #MyanmarElection

3.41am GMT

NLD supporters celebrated late into the night on Monday in anticipation of their party’s expected victory.

Although the results are still slow to arrive, indications certainly point to overwhelming success for Aung San Suu Kyi’s opposition party.

3.31am GMT

Fifty-four out of 323 seats in the national parliament have so far been declared:

3.23am GMT

Reuters reports that the election result could see an easing of US sanctions against Myanmar – as long as the military accepts the results:

Washington said it would watch for the democratic process to move forward before lifting more sanctions, which still target more than 100 individuals and businesses and limit US investment in Myanmar.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the election process was encouraging and “represents an important step in Burma’s democratic process”.

3.10am GMT

Some clarification on this morning’s fresh results.

Earlier reports suggested the new announcements related to the national parliament – in fact, they were results from state and regional legislatures.

54 results at 9am from UEC. All state/region legislatures. 49 NLD, 2 USDP, 2 KachinSDP, 1 MonNP

3.01am GMT

My colleague Oliver Holmes sends this dispatch from Yangon on the reaction to jubilation among NLD supporters:

The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper ran an opinion article on Tuesday warning: “Every stakeholder in Myanmar politics to make wise decisions during this important juncture in the country’s history.”

It went on: “Veering away from what we know to be the best course of action for the people could see the country descend into confusion and chaos.”

Many are concerned that the months after the election could be chaotic, especially if the NLD tries to assert its dominance or if the military feels its influence is overly threatened.

“The problems that have plagued Myanmar’s political system have stemmed from the exclusion of the wishes of a significant number of stakeholders. It is therefore important for some stakeholders to retreat and for some to take a few steps forward,” the opinion article said, without specifying if it was referring to the NLD or the military.

2.53am GMT

The next official update on vote-counting is at noon local time (4.30pm AEDT/5.30am GMT) but it’s likely that we will get a sense – albeit unofficial – of how far the NLD could progress via its own tallies.

[Edit: this post was amended to remove a BBC journalist’s tweet that has been deleted.]

2.48am GMT

The official electoral commission has announced the next batch of results.

With 121 seats declared so far, the NLD has won 111.

2.30am GMT

A reminder that, even if the NLD secures victory, Myanmar’s constitution bars Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president.

A constitutional provision introduced by the military junta excludes from the role all those with foreign children – Suu Kyi’s late husband was British and she has two British sons.

The constitution will have to change to allow civilian authorities to have the necessary democratic authority over the armed forces.

Related: Myanmar elections: What is happening? Your questions answered

2.17am GMT

My colleague Oliver Holmes is in Yangon and notes the “surreal” sight of state media leading on expected success for Suu Kyi and her opposition party:

Myanmar state media headline today says "NLD dominates". pic.twitter.com/3aZDuT8MOr

2.09am GMT

Victory for Aung San Suu Kyi could cause “discomfort” in China, reports the Guardian’s Beijing correspondent, Tom Phillips:

Suu Kyi – a highly sensitive figure in China given her long and successful struggle against Myanmar’s authoritarian rulers – is unlikely to make many Chinese front pages in the wake of her electoral triumph.

But there are already signs of China’s discomfort at the prospect of her party’s win heralding an era of much closer ties between Myanmar and the west – and the United States in particular.

1.52am GMT

Only a small proportion of the country’s 498 seats, across the lower and upper house, have so far been declared.

By 11pm local time, 54 seats had been declared, with NLD taking 48 of those.

1.35am GMT

Welcome to continuing live coverage as results roll in from Myanmar’s general election.

Myanmar’s official electoral commission has so far declared only a handful of results.

We have a higher percentage of losses than wins … The results are not yet official but we accept any outcome.

I think you all have the idea.

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