Republicans need just six seats to win a majority in the Senate. Can they do it? Follow all the days developments in our politics live blog
Midterm elections: all you need to know
Scott Brown creates an unholy trinity in New Hampshire
Democratic congressman warns of civil war
5.00pm ET
The largest non-partisan voter protection coalition in the US has received more than 12,000 calls from people struggling to vote in states with new voter-ID laws.
The calls have come from around the country, but especially from Florida, Georgia and Texas, my colleague Ed Pilkington, in Raleigh North Carolina, reports:
In Georgia, almost 1,500 calls had come in over the past two days and long lines were reported in several towns and cities. Many were from people who are among the 40,000 disappeared people who were registered to vote but whose details have not been transferred to voting rolls, a problem that was exacerbated today by the states own voting website crashing, leaving voters in the dark about the location of their polling stations.
A steady stream of calls has also come in from Texas from people trapped by the new voter-ID law. Surprisingly, the callers included several military personnel who reported difficulties using their military ID cards at polling stations even though such identification is recognised under the new rules.
4.47pm ET
Normally polite Wisconsin has descended into partisan strife as controversial governor Scott Walker campaigns for re-election and to keep his dreams of higher office alive.
4.40pm ET
America votes in pictures.
4.34pm ET
FiveThirtyEight sees five likely scenarios tonight GOP landslide 30%, solid GOP win 35%, GOP squeaker 10%, Dem squeaker 10%, Dem shocker 15% just like Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts saw five likely scenarios earlier today.
But Dan has given his scenarios more exciting names:
4.21pm ET
New voter ID laws slashed early voting and drawn the ire of civil rights activists n North Carolina, where my colleague Ed Pilkington (@edpilkington) is reporting.
The Republican state legislators who passed the law including Thom Tillis, who is vying for a US senate seat - have been accused of trying to suppress the voice of the overwhelmingly Democratic-supporting black community.
Well, if that was the intention it doesnt seem to have worked. When the polling station opened at 6.30am at the Ivy Community in a largely black area of Durham, there was already a line of about 50 voters that stretched back to the road. By 10.30am poll volunteers estimated that about 500 had passed through a striking number in this district compared to past elections.
We are already close to passing the number who voted on election day in 2010, and its still morning, said Thelma White, precinct chair.
White is a member of the Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People, a historic support group for the citys 41% African American population. She believes the states Republican-controlled general assembly has been playing mind games with black voters by altering the voting rules. But a lot of people are saying, Im not going to fall for it this time.
4.14pm ET
Have a story about voting mismanagement or obstacles youve witnessed today? Our Opinion desk is asking for stories here.
A sampling of the stories collected so far:
4.02pm ET
At Kentucky State University, voters have steadily streamed in, Megan Carpentier reports, hearing that the sheer number of races has left some people surprised:
Kentucky State University, the historically black public university of about 2,500 students in the state capital of Frankfort, is host to not one but two voting precincts one at either end of campus. Beverly Standiford explained that theyd been unusually busy for a midterm election. Were well over 10%, and we never get that, she said around 11.30am ET.
They dont purge people like they used to, and we have students that register to vote here and then they move away but theyre still in our books, so our percentage at the end of the day is higher than it seems.
As she spoke, people trickled into the precinct in ones or twos, where Tonya Davis, who was working this precinct for the first time (but has been a poll worker in past elections elsewhere), recognized some people by name but still checked their identification including university-issued student IDs and drivers licenses before having them sign the voter rolls, as required by Kentucky law. Its amazing how, when you work, you get to know everyone.
Though the precinct has one electronic voting machine, most voters opted for paper ballots, distributed by Standiford with a smiling reminder to turn it over and vote for the county commissioner race on the backside of the form. Usually, we dont have this many races, she told one new voter apologetically. Kitty Austin, another poll worker, said, Its amazing, though, many of the races are uncontested just look, theres only one choice for coroner.
3.51pm ET
Celebrities, just like regular Americans, dont get out to vote much even if they appear in ads telling you to rock that very same vote.
The Washington Post looked into LA County and New York City records and found that Lena Dunham, Whoopi Goldberg and Natasha Lyonne (Orange is the New Black) were among the five actors who appeared in the pro-voting PSA but did not actually vote in the 2010 midterms. The Post couldnt find records for six others in the ad, including rapper Lil Jon, who often fronts the ads.
3.31pm ET
What happens if Republicans win control of the Senate and keep their majority in the House? Joy for Republicans and even more problems for the president, among other things.
Adam Gabbatt, Mae Ryan and the Guardians video team can answer some of your questions in a colorful, three-minute video of the midterms in brief, from the strangest campaign ads to the peculiar habits of the American electorate halfway through presidential terms.
3.23pm ET
Kansas revolts! Thats the story being told outside the wheat state, whose culture warring governor Sam Brownback has peeved one of the reddest of red constituencies.
3.10pm ET
We have a chance of picking up an independent who will be with us in the state of Kansas, vice-president Joe Biden has said about Greg Orman, an Independent candidate running for senator against Republican Pat Roberts in Kansas.
2.56pm ET
More reports of problems with voting machines (at least one county in Texas is not listing all the candidates names as well).
VA Board of Elections confirms it received reports of about 20 units allegedly displaying a candidate different than what voter selected
2.49pm ET
Taking it literally.
Sen. Udall gives stump speech on a stump (pic via @katiezez) pic.twitter.com/i1S0C936fm
2.40pm ET
President Obama says This is the worst possible group of states for Democrats since Dwight Eisenhower there are a lot of states being contested that are , just tend to tilt Republican.
The commander in chief called into a radio show in Connecticut today, saying that US history is characterized by expanding the rights to vote, not by restricting it a not so veiled allusion to new voter ID laws around the country. He gives a push for Governor Dannel Malloys re-election campaign and tries to get people out to vote.
Unless you got a robocall, hearing from Obama has been pretty tricky. here he makes a surprise call to a radio show https://t.co/kagFsQ2pLy
2.31pm ET
Turnout is said to be healthy in Maine, Jon Swaine, in New England to cover the races, reports by way of Mike Michauds campaign manager.
Were getting word from folks on the ground that voters across Maine are turning out in presidential year numbers, Matt McTighe, Michauds campaign manager, said in an email to supporters. The last two opinion polls of the race showed a tie and Michaud one percentage point in the lead.
Midterm turnout typically hovers around 40%, but some figures on early voting in key swing states showed a small drop, such as Colorado where advance ballots were 1.6m versus 1.77m in 2010.
Elsewhere, anecdotal reports were slightly more positive. In Des Moines, Iowa, polling stations visited by the Guardian reported a steady stream at or above normal mid-term levels.
2.24pm ET
A reminder from friend of the Guardian and writer/analyst for FiveThirtyEight, Harry Enten.
Turnout being high or low doesn't tell us who is winning... It depends on who is turning out.
2.18pm ET
Mainers could elect the first openly gay governor in the US, but the candidates record of voting against LGBT rights has split the community, my colleague Jon Swaine (@jonswaine) writes:
Democrat Mike Michaud, representing his rural home district, remained quiet for years through years of colourfully intolerant remarks as a measure [against discrimination of gay people] repeatedly came up for debate. He made 18 votes against it during his 22 years in Maines legislature, and was among just five state senators to oppose it even up to its long-awaited passage in 1997.
2.05pm ET
Oregon may also legalise possession of up to eight ounces of recreational marijuana, tax revenues and allow people to grow their own plants.
Chris McGreal reported from Oregon on Friday on Measure 91 , which has heavyweight political backing and has a solid chance to win, per FiveThirtyEight. From Chris:
Anthony Johnson, the chief sponsor of Measure 91, said that the drafters of the proposed law learned from the mistakes of the past.
This time, its the rules and regulations put in place that have satisfied people looking to donate to the campaign as well as mainstream endorsers. Previous marijuana measures would have legalised an unlimited amount of marijuana for people to grow and possess at home, for instance, whereas Measure 91 very much regulates marijuana like beer and wine. Those rules and regulations make moderate voters and mainstream endorsers more comfortable with this measure than other measures in the past, he said.
1.51pm ET
Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts is at the eye of the storm in DC.
1.46pm ET
Problems voting are an issue during each election cycle, but this year a complicated range of voter ID laws around the country have made the electoral process more byzantine in a number of states.
ThinkProgress is collecting accounts of troubles at the polls, and has been told by National Bar Association president Pamela Meanes that poll workers are asking for two forms of ID if individuals cant produce a photo ID. So far, theres one incident in Ferguson and one incident in Jennings. Photo ID is not required to vote in Missouri.
1.30pm ET
Texas is having ballot problems, gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott confirms, and he should care the likely winners name is missing from the list.
Ballot irregularities omit my name from ballot in Bexar Co. Call Secretary of State if you spot other problems http://t.co/7KEr3k5bC9
1.23pm ET
There is no such thing as not voting a quick PSA from David Foster Wallace, circa spring 2000:
If you are bored and disgusted by politics and dont bother to vote, you are in effect voting for the entrenched establishments of the two major parties, who please rest assured are not dumb, and who are keenly aware that it is in their interests to keep you disgusted and bored and cynical and to give you every possible psychological reason to stay at home doing one-hitters and watching MTV on [election] day.
By all means stay home if you want, but dont bullshit yourself that youre not voting. In reality, there is no such thing as not voting: you either vote by voting, or you vote by staying home and tacitly doubling the value of some diehards vote.
The best way to grow together as a country is if everyone participates. Don't forget to vote today. #ivoted
Please vote today. It matters who we elect: https://t.co/z3bijSnxz2
1.15pm ET
The first exit polls are expected in a few hours, but dont pop any champagne when they do it could be a long night, which could stretch into the morning, and into Wednesday afternoon, by which point your party may want to take a break.
Four states are especially problematic: Louisiana and Georgia could go to runoffs, Kansas Greg Orman refuses to identify with a party, and Alaska sometimes takes week to declare a winner. If anyone decides to call for a recount in a close race, it could complicate things even more.
What could help to ensure theres a definitive Senate winner by evenings end? If Georgia, where polls close on the early side at 7pm ET, were declared expeditiously for the Republicans, or the Republican won in either North Carolina (7.30pm) or New Hampshire (8pm), that would probably do it. Heres a map of poll closing times in each state.
1.01pm ET
An update from Colorado, where the Guardians Paul Lewis reports on what could be the race that seals control of the Seante for Republicans. Senator Mark Udall has struggled in recent weeks against his Republican rival, Cory Gardner, who has a 2.5-point advantage, according to Real Clear Politics.
Paul continues with the state of the race:
Colorado is as much a battleground state in Senate races as it is in presidential nominations, with roughly a third registered Democrats, Republicans and independents. Rallying supporters at a phone bank on the eve of voting on Monday, Gardner, a congressman, called Colorado the tip of the speer, the fulcrum of power. But the truth is that neither side is confident about the outcome of a bitter, expensive race that has been dominated by negative TV ads.
Colorado is the birthplace of the Bannock Street Project, a now nationwide get-the-vote-out strategy envied by Republicans. It gave the states junior Democratic senator, Michael Bennet, the edge in the last midterm election, in 2010, when he was also trailing in the polls. Democrats are seeking to repeat history and have optimistically noted a surge in ballots from young and first time voters that could upend a Republican advantage and tip the election in Udalls favour. That effort will be stymied if there is a low turnout among Colorados large block of Hispanic voters. If they vote, Latinos will mostly support the Democratic senator; but local party strategists are worried that Barack Obamas decision to postpone executive on immigration reform will deflate Hispanic turnout.
12.48pm ET
12.40pm ET
A photobomb, but perhaps in vain: HuffPo Pollster puts McConnell ahead by 6 points; Real Clear Politics by 7.2; and the New York Times gives him a 97% chance of victory.
Sen. McConnell casts vote as man behind him gives thumbs down at @bellarmineU. @courierjournal @ALTONPHOTO #kysen pic.twitter.com/EFAqxMfbMd
12.28pm ET
Maines Republican governor Paul LePage, running for re-election in a close race against Mike Michaud, is loosening the rules a bit for voting today, considering the shellacking his state has had from winter storms.
Gov. LePage has signed emergency proclamation allowing utility workers restoring power to vote remotely.
12.19pm ET
New Hampshire officials expects high turnout for a midterm election, my colleague Jon Swaine tells me per the word of Bill Gardner, the secretary of state.
It appears the turnout has been quite brisk this morning, Gardner told the Guardian, after checking in with several polling stations. I predicted the turnout would exceed 2010 numbers-wise and, well see, but so far it appears that it will.
Gardner has forecast that about 464,000 people about 53.7% of registered voters will vote. He said that he based his figure on factors including the number of absentee ballots filed before election day and a record 1,500 candidates standing for office across the state.
12.09pm ET
Kentucky has one of the most high-profile races in the country, with Senate minority leader, Republican Mitch McConnell, facing off against Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell has a solid lead by most projections, and is up by 7.2 points per RCP. The Guardians Megan Carpentier is on the trail and delivers the state of the race:
If (or, as increasingly seems likely, when) Republicans take the Senate, minority leader Mitch McConnell is poised to ascend to majority leader and wield significant power over the legislative agenda. The outcome is heavily weighted in McConnells favor, but the Grimes campaign is at least publicly holding out hope for heavier-than-expected voter turnout.
McConnells approval rating in the state was only barely higher than Obamas in February and its still under 40%. (He did manage to torpedo Grimes approval rating in the course of the campaign, though.) As much as McConnell wants it to be a referendum on Obama, its probably a referendum on McConnell and its one its likely hell win.
11.55am ET
See, a Tyrannosaur doesnt follow a set pattern or park schedules, thats the essence of chaos, and thats what Democrats need, according to FiveThirtyEights Nate Silver who did not
exactly
at all quote the fictional Dr Ian Malcolm, but says the Democrats need chaos nonetheless.
Silver puts Democrats chances to keep the Senate at 25%, which makes Republican victory hardly a sure thing, but says that the White Houses party would likely win in either a squeaker or a shocker and either scenario probably requires chaos.
11.39am ET
Republicans win in Guam! Or at least Governor Eddie Calvo has won, re-elected by a huge margin with 56 of 58 precincts reporting.
From the Times Upshot:
Local politics in Guam are closely divided between Republicans and Democrats. Mr Calvo was first elected governor in 2010 with 50.6% of the vote; the unicameral legislature had a 9-6 Democratic majority going into todays election.
But while Guams party divide mimics the countrys, its ideological divide does not. Over half of Guams GDP is public expenditure, and both Republicans and Democrats in the territory embrace an active role for government.
11.33am ET
It could all come down to Iowa, according to analysts like FiveThirtyEights Harry Enten (@forecasterenten), where Republican Joni Ernst is racing against Democrat Bruce Braley. Ernst has a 1.4-point edge, according to RCP, and a 7-point lead per the Des Moines Reigster. The Guardians Rory Carroll (@rorycarroll72) sends us the state of the race:
11.22am ET
Politicians like to fall back on support our troops as an unassailable refrain, and especially like that refrain when they themselves were soldiers once.
Leo Shane (@leoshane) of Military Times sends this chart our way to clarify just which candidates served where, and with whom.
11.10am ET
Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, battling Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes for his seat in Kentucky, has gone to vote.
His wife will have to wait until her IDs been fetched for her.
Sen. McConnell voting in Louisville. His wife forgot ID in car, so she's waiting for someone to get it for her. pic.twitter.com/iXsm9hCqdT
11.02am ET
Civil war is looming among the Democrats unless President Obama acts on immigration, a congressman has warned the Guardians Paul Lewis (@paullewis), reporting from Colorado:
Speaking on the campaign trail in Colorado on the eve of the elections, Representative Luis Gutiérrez, a key figure in the push for immigration reform gave a dire warning about the consequences for Democrats should Obama choose not to act swiftly and in broad terms, saying the costs would be considerably worse than the expected drop in turnout among Latinos and could result in people leaving the party.
This problem that you see, politically, is nothing in comparison to the civil war that will be created politically in the Democratic party should the president not be broad and generous in his use of prosecutorial discretion, he said. Because Latinos will not be deciding whether or not they vote, but whether or not they are in the Democratic party.
10.54am ET
Know your polls, courtesy Professor Brendan Nyhan and USA Today.
Useful poll closing times map for tonight from @USATODAY and @ccamia http://t.co/nwFHQANhxo pic.twitter.com/D8HXSn7hfL
10.47am ET
10.37am ET
Presidential approval has historically had a powerful effect on the midterms: President Obamas rating is not good, but others have fared worse:
Presidential approval, going into 2nd midterm: Obama: 42% Bush: 38% Clinton: 66% Reagan: 63% Eisenhower: 52% Truman: 39% (Source - Gallup)
10.24am ET
North Carolina could be another bellwether of Republican victory, should incumbent senator Kay Hagan (D) lose to Thom Tillis (R). But the race is extremely close and tilted slightly in Hagans favor, Gary Younge (@garyyounge) reports:
Kay Hagan should be toast by now. According to Public Policy Polling her approval rating is 41%. She voted for Obamacare. Republicans are pouring millions into the state, making hers the most expensive race in the country.
The story starts with Republican overreach. When they won the North Carolina assembly in 2010 they went wild. They passed one of the countrys most restrictive voter ID laws, eliminating same-day registration, cutting early voting, and demanding government issued photo ID at the polls. They slashed education funding, passed restrictive and intrusive limitations on abortion access, cut unemployment benefits and refused to expand access to Medicaid that was tied to Obamacare. They also redrew electoral boundaries to secure future Republican majorities.
When they started they had no idea that Tillis would be Hagans opponent in the senate race. But when he won the primary, it meant the groundwork had already been laid for Hagans campaign to frame Tillis as a polarising partisan who is hostile to the poor, African Americans and women.
Hagan is not winning because she is popular, but because Tillis is equally unpopular. The general assembly of which he was one of the most prominent figures is even more unpopular, with more than half of respondents in one poll disapproving of its work, and even Republicans having a net negative view.
10.12am ET
Florida: Incumbent Republican Rick Scott v Democrat Charlie Crist. Crist is a former Republican former Florida governor whose politics are adaptable. Scott despises Crist, Crist loathes Scott and Floridians hate em both to an unusual degree but Crist has a near 60% chance of winning, because the sunshine state has to shine on someone.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Republican Scott Walker v Democrat Mary Burke. Walker, a college dropout with eyes to higher office, staked his career on union-busting legislation and survived a recall election. Burke was state commerce secretary with a pedigree from Georgetown and Harvard Business School, wants to be Wisconsins first female governor. Walker looks to win by just a few points.
10.03am ET
Remember Clay Aiken? That guy who almost won on American Idol over a decade ago?
He still wants your vote if youre registered in North Carolinas second district.
9.50am ET
For Corncrackers eager to celebrate the vote or simply dont want to cast their ballot without some liquid courage, my colleague Megan Carpentier (@megancarpentier) has good news for you from Kentucky:
Some Kentucky voters who find making electoral decisions taxing and, with everything from county coroners and judges to the US senate race on the ballot, county clerks are warning that it might take a little longer than normal to finish voting will get a nice surprise. This year marks the first election since before Prohibition in which localities are allowed to permit alcohol sales before the polls close.
The legislature passed the bill in 2013 and some places (including Fayette County, which includes the city of Lexington, and the city of Louisville) opted to permit sales while others passed laws to continue the restrictions.
9.43am ET
Georgia politics are very, very local.
Interesting scene in Evans as Rick Allen and John Barrow wave to commuters at the same intersection. #gapol #ga12 pic.twitter.com/vqRHMTLQdA
9.32am ET
How voter friendly is your state?
Thats the question my colleagues at the Guardians interactive desk have put to Americans in this handy interactive, which breaks down the ways some states are making it more difficult for US citizens over the age of 18 to vote. A couple numbers:
9.16am ET
Three more Senate races to watch:
Alaska: Democrat Senator Mark Begich v Republican Dan Sullivan. Distant Alaska, the latest of the late votes, may not report its final tallies until the wee hours of tomorrow morning. Sullivan had led for weeks, but Begich mounted an apparent comeback in recent days which makes two top forecasters sweat. Nate Silver and Harry Enten call Alaskas history of polling quirky and often inaccurate. Its a tossup? Maybe?
9.01am ET
A Republican win in New Hampshire would mean big things it would almost certainly herald GOP control of the Senate. (North Carolina is the other state that could dash Democrats hopes.)
Polling between Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Scott Brown (R) is at a dead heat. Browns support has risen steadily in recent months, whittling Shaheens 10-point lead down to less than a percentage point.
Democrats are scrambling to hold on their one US Senate seat for this New England bellwether state, and to protect Shaheen, a former governor, one of 20 women in the upper chamber and a member of Americas only all-female congressional delegation.
Brown, meanwhile, is seeking to become the first person in 135 years to have represented two different states in the Senate. He held one of Massachusettss seats after winning a special election in 2010, before being defeated by Senator Elizabeth Warren in 2012.
8.46am ET
A word of warning from the experts: dont trust what you hear about long or short lines at the polls
FiveThirtyEights Harry Enten and the New York Times Nate Cohn both warn that lines arent what they seem, and that counties have very different rates and means of reporting their votes. Cities, which usually lean Democratic, sometimes report more slowly, creating the illusion of a Republican lead where there never really was one.
8.30am ET
North Carolina: Democrat Kay Hagan v Republican Thom Tillis. More than $100m has been spent in the race, and the incumbent the candidates have tried to turn the election into a referendum on the other partys performance. Hagan has a tiny lead.
New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen v Republican Scott Brown. The incumbent, Shaheen, is the first woman to be elected both governor and senator in the state. Brown, who came to New Hampshire after losing his job as Massachusetts senator, once took shelter in the bathroom when the Guardians Paul Lewis tried to ask him about contraception policy. Shaheen leads, but not by much.
8.11am ET
Polls have opened around the US and the battle for control of the Congress has begun. Welcome to our coverage of the 2014 midterm elections.
Republicans need to win six seats to take a majority in the Senate, and will almost certainly keep their hold over the House of Representatives. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats have 45 need to win five Senate seats to at least sway half the chamber, but have been hamstrung by the presidents bad approvals ratings, a timid economy and the curse of midterm turnout. The Democrats seem likely to lose seats in Arkansas, South Dakota and West Virginia.
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