Live coverage as Scottish government and UK Treasury launch rival reports on Scotland's economic future after a 'yes' vote in the independence referendum
Read the end-of-day summary
3.33pm BST
I'm about to wrap up this live blog for today. Here are the key developments:
The SNP says Danny Alexander has had a "disastrous day" after two experts distanced themselves from Treasury projections of the costs of setting up an independent Scotland.
This deeply flawed poll is in stark contrast to the projection published last week in the Inverness Courier. That projection, which took into account the recent election results, showed Danny holding the seat ahead of Labour with the SNP in third place.
Another way an independent Scotland could offset without cutting public spending is to increase the basic rate of income tax from 20 to 28%, increase VAT from 20 to 26% and increase duties on alcohol, tobacco and fuel by about 40%.
3.07pm BST
The Treasury has just tweeted out a Buzzfeed list of 12 things the £1,400 "UK dividend" could buy. (Yes, this is how things are done now.)
Scottish independence: 12 things the £1400 #UKDividend could buy http://t.co/oIrfUDxURp > Great @BuzzFeedUK from @youdecide2014 #indyref
12. And finally, youll still have enough left over for endless hugs with everyone to celebrate being in a United Kingdom.
i'd pay a maths tutor for an hour to give Danny Alexander some basic addition lessons, the rest would carpet my hall and stairs #UKdividend
With £1400 I'd fund the UK's Trident nuclear submarine system for 1.24 minutes: https://t.co/keVifH5Qnw #UKDividend
With my #UKDividend I might pay for 2.5cm (!) of HS2.
With £1400 I'd buy nine days' worth of champagne for the House Of Lords: http://t.co/j6cL9jpEx8 #UKDividend
2.42pm BST
Spectator blogger Alex Massie has some advice for those unsure which of today's conflicting reports of Scotland's future to plump for: "The probability is they are both wrong."
He writes:
It will not surprise you that the UK governments projections run towards the pessimistic side of the ledger while their opponents in Edinburgh take a sunnier view of Scotlands future economic circumstances and performance. Fancy that!
It is, I think, probable and unnecessarily stupid that some of the UK governments assumptions about the one-off start-up costs of establishing a new state are exaggerated. True too that even on Londons pessimistic forecasts an independent Scotland remains a perfectly viable proposition.
2.29pm BST
The SNP is also again, unsurprisingly cheered by news that it is on course to relieve Danny Alexander of his seat in the 2015 general election, according to a poll commissioned by Lord Oakeshott (who resigned from the Lib Dems today).
This rather gleeful response came from Angus Robertson, the SNP's Westminster leader:
Danny Alexander has had a disastrous day. First he was caught red-handed promoting figures about Scotland which have been rubbished as bizarrely inaccurate by the academics whose work was being distorted and now this devastating poll from Lord Oakeshott reveals that Danny Alexander will not only lose his seat in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey to the SNP, but is trailing in third place just ahead of the Tories.
The European election results gave us an idea of how badly the Liberal Democrats are doing as they were swept off the electoral map of Scotland but for their senior cheer leader in the Tory-led No campaign to be relegated to third place is another humiliation.
2.13pm BST
The SNP is, unsurprisingly, enjoying the remarks of the two experts who have distanced themselves from Treasury figures apparently based on their research. It has put out a release with more details:
Professor Patrick Dunleavy of the LSE has confirmed that the Treasurys position is flawed in three ways by overestimating the number of government departments and public bodies Scotland will need, ignoring the fact that many already exist and basing their estimate of the cost of setting up a department on the chaotic way departments have been set up by previous UK governments, rather than in the orderly manner the Scottish government has planned.
As their claims quickly unravelled, the Treasury then sought to change their claim from £2.7bn to £1.5bn which it said was based on an estimate by Professor Robert Young of Western Ontario University. However, todays Financial Times makes clear that Professor Young has also disowned the treasury analysis, saying that Prof Young said that the £1.5bn estimate was not his.
Appears to take minimum Whitehall reorganization cost of £15m and multiply by 180 agencies to get £2.7bn. Overstates maybe 12 times?
OECD countries have 14 depts, most in Scottish Executive. New depts needed = 4: Defence, foreign, reorganized HMRC and DWP Scotland regions
Danny Alexander is all over the place on this issue. Earlier this morning he seemed to distance himself from Professor Dunleavy of LSE and claimed he was siding with Professor Young clearly Mr Alexander hadnt been told that Professor Young had already distanced himself from the Treasury!
Despite the Treasurys discredited claims, the reality is that Scotland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world more prosperous per head than the UK, France and Japan.
After this latest blunder and attempt to mislead people the fact is that the No campaigns economic credibility has completely crumbled people in Scotland cant believe a word Project Fear say.
1.39pm BST
The Scottish Conservatives have bitten back at the "£5bn better off" line from the SNP, claiming that in the first year of independence, Scotland could face "a black hole of up to £5bn".
(It concedes this is a "worst case scenario").
Updated oil revenue projections have shown that, in the worst case scenario, tax receipts would bring in £2.9bn in 2016/17.
In the Scottish governments white paper, it states up to £7.9bn would be required just to balance the books.
While economic experts have been saying for some time that the figures for an independent Scotland dont add up, this is the first time that even Alex Salmond has admitted theres a multi-billion pound black hole.
All the experts advise caution when projecting oil revenues, even more-so when basing an entire economy upon it.
1.13pm BST
My colleague Libby Brooks has filed on Salmond's claim that an independent Scotland could be £5bn a year better off. You can read it here. Libby reports:
Launching a report at St Andrews House in Edinburgh, the first minister,Alex Salmond, said an independent Scotland could generate more than £5bn a year of extra revenues within 15 years, equating to £1,000 per person, without having to raises taxes.
The report details how a yes vote in September's referendum could help boost the Scottish economy by increasing productivity, boosting the working age population and increasing employment.
1.09pm BST
Danny Alexander made frequent mention in his Q&A with reporters this morning to a "secret memo" of John Swinney's in which the finance minister concedes that setting up a new tax system post-independence could cost in the region of £600m. Here's the relevant section:
"leaked Swinney memo" extract @dannyalexander keeps on referring to. Indeed costs Scots tax admin @ £575m-£625m: 1/2 pic.twitter.com/riodTFMaTo
1.03pm BST
The latest round of polls commissioned by (now ex-Lib Dem) Lord Oakeshott say Danny Alexander would come third in his constituency in next year's general election, behind the SNP and Labour:
New #Oakeshottpoll shows Danny Alexander coming third in his own constituency behind the SNP and Labour http://t.co/S9YSqVv0iI
New poll also shows 47% of his constituents could not name Danny Alexander as their local MP
12.49pm BST
Claim and counter-claim from the yes and no camps about Scotland's fiscal fortunes post-independence this morning, most of which flat-out contradict each other. It is hard to see how minds can be made up on these figures: the yes side says Scotland could be £5bn-a-year better off by 2030; the no side says the start-up costs of an independent state alone could set the country back by £1.5bn.
Here is a round-up of what we've heard from both sides today:
This is a blow to the Treasury's credibility from which they will find it difficult to recover.
Another way an independent Scotland could offset without cutting public spending is to increase the basic rate of income tax from 20 to 28%, increase VAT from 20 to 26% and increase duties on alcohol, tobacco and fuel by about 40%.
11.47am BST
Here's what some of those in the room for Alexander's speech have been saying.
From the political editor of the Scottish Daily Mail:
Can you guess what figure the Treasury has settled on for the Union "dividend"? #indyref pic.twitter.com/ZlvgKLGS4q
Danny Alexander offers to meet & debate Alex Salmond "anytime, anywhere"
box 2B, from @hmtreasury analysis causing serious bother for No campaign: setup costs of new state: TWO profs unhappy pic.twitter.com/4MRpmM7EfV
Danny Alexander misleading on Barnett - coalition agreement refers to changes once economy recovers. #indyref #yes
11.38am BST
You can read a full report of Salmond's claim that an independent Scotland could, by 2030, be £5bn-a-year better off here.
The first minister has also been tweeting after his press conference this morning:
Using independence powers to grow economy Scotland could be £5bn/year better off, or £1,000/person, within 15 years http://t.co/13F32Sle7V
Scotland in strong position to start an oil savings fund from the point of independence http://t.co/13F32Sle7V (AA)
11.29am BST
I'm now going to scout around Twitter and elsewhere for reaction to this morning's reports. In the meantime, in a continuation of the Danny Alexander-Tunnocks tea cake theme, there's this:
Tunnocks! Unusually generous spread for hacks attending an @HMTreasury event... Must be worried about #indyref pic.twitter.com/dwdhgBLNjv
11.27am BST
Alexander also said there was "no prospect" of a change to the Barnett formula under which the Treasury allocates a portion of public spending to Scotland adding that "no political party in the UK wants to get rid of it" apart from the SNP.
11.24am BST
Responding to the claim by John Swinney that an independent Scotland would benefit from a divvying-up of the UK's £1.3tn in assets, Alexander said this would not be the case.
It would not be to the net benefit or the net disadvantage of either an independent Scotland or the rest of the UK [It would be] a neutral, objective outcome.
11.20am BST
In questions, Danny Alexander was asked repeatedly about the comments made by two experts Professor Robert Young and Professor Patrick Dunleavy that the Treasury had used misleading figures. Alexander said:
Professor Dunleavy's calculations don't form any part of the £1.5bn estimate in this paper.
11.13am BST
Danny Alexander refused to answer a question on whether Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott should lose the whip over allegations he commissioned polls hostile to Nick Clegg, saying he was here to talk about the Scottish referendum.
11.10am BST
Apologies for the gap in coverage. Here's a summary of Alexander's speech to launch the Treasury report on the fiscal consequences of independence.
The chief secretary to the Treasury has little truck with claims made this morning by Salmond and Swinney that an independent Scotland could be £5bn a year better off by 2030. Instead, he said, a yes vote could cost the country that much:
Independent forecasters show that in 2016 Scotland would be borrowing over 5% of national income. That is double the deficit in the UK.
And the difference equates to around five and a half billion pounds from day one.
As a separate country, Scotland would need to set up new institutions: a new passport office, a new benefits agency, or a new tax collection agency.
That last one alone would cost £750m.
Another way an independent Scotland could offset the £1,400 UK dividend without cutting public spending is to increase the basic rate of income tax from 20 to 28%, increase VAT from 20 to 26% and increase duties on alcohol, tobacco and fuel by about 40%.
They will just continue to peddle myth after myth, saying that taxes wouldn't be higher, that there's loads of oil left, that public services won't suffer, that growth will be stronger, that breaking away won't be hugely expensive, that new institutions can be set up for free.
All of these myths are refuted by the information we publish today.
10.54am BST
Alexander has finished speaking. Claire will be back momentarily to post a summary of the Alexander press conference.
10.49am BST
An independent Scotland would have to make up this £1,400 shortfall if it turns its back on the "UK dividend", Alexander says.
Another way an independent Scotland could offset without cutting public spending is to increase the basic rate of income tax from 20 to 28%, increase VAT from 20 to 26% and increase duties on alcohol, tobacco and fuel by about 40%.
10.45am BST
Alexander says:
Should Scotland become independent it would start off in life in a worse financial position than the UK.
That is the view of the institute for fiscal studies, the centre for public policy for regions, Citigroup and many others.
10.44am BST
Danny Alexander, launching the Treasury report in Edinburgh, says he is giving the Scottish people "1400 reasons why we are better off together".
He says that's the share for every person in Scotland of what he calls the "UK dividend".
Danny Alexander claims that Salmond is ducking an #indyref debate with him... Hmmmm pic.twitter.com/5glHI7RiWG
Danny Alexander: "Its about time that the Scottish Government came clean with people" about the costs of independence. #indyref
10.38am BST
Apologies for the delay in posting, Claire is having technical difficulties. This is Mark Smith filling in until Claire can exorcise her wifi demons.
Since Claire's last post, Danny Alexander "the most senior Scot in the UK government", as he says has begun a press conference for the no camp in Edinburgh. He claims that Scots would be £1,400 a year each better off by remaining part of the UK. He is now taking questions from the floor.
9.40am BST
Salmond: The case for independence is one of self determination. The instruments Scotland gains will make us better off.
One of the reasons independence can make Scotland better off is because decisions will be made by those who live and work here.
9.38am BST
Some more detail from the Scottish government on that £5bn-better-off claim:
A 0.3 percentage point increase in our long run productivity growth rate, which will narrow some of the gap with our competitors, could see tax revenues increase by £2.4bn a year by 2029-30.
Increasing our employment rate by 3.3 percentage points to move Scotland up to the level of the top five performing countries in the OECD could increase revenues by £1.3bn a year by 2029-30.
9.35am BST
John Swinney says he is publishing details on how Scotland's public finances can develop, with a 15-year projection of how Scotland can grow.
Scotland would be £5bn a year better off by 2029/2030 after a vote for independence.
9.33am BST
Salmond: We have identified the challenges that have to be met to improve Scotland's performance and set out how independence can address them.
9.30am BST
On the hotly disputed estimate by the Treasury that an independent Scotland could need £1.5bn in start-up costs:
Salmond: set up costs of independence part of wider debate about division of UK assets
9.27am BST
Moving to questions from reporters, Salmond says says economics is central to the yes campaign. It will focus on the benefits and prospects of an independent country, he adds.
9.20am BST
Salmond says that over the next 15 years, independence will mean £2,000 more for every family.
This is a realistic assessment of the benefits of independence.
This articulation of Scotland's potential will overcome the arguments of Project Fear.
9.18am BST
DWP minister Steve Webb has said this morning that the UK goverment cannot ignore demographic challenges and, should there be an independent Scottish government in the future, neither could it.
Salmond says the boost needed to the working-age population is only 2,000 more than the recent average.
9.13am BST
Salmond says of the wrangling this week over disputed start-up costs for an independent Scotland:
This is a blow to the Treasury's credibility from which they will find it difficult to recover.
9.10am BST
And it starts with a joke:
.@alexsalmond starts press briefing. "Sorry I'm late, was reading @PJDunleavy tweets" #indyref #yes
Alex Salmond starts by quoting directly from Prof Dunleavy on the Treasury's treatment of his figures
9.08am BST
The Press Association has sent out this curtain-raiser for this morning's face-off:
Competing estimates of the costs and savings of Scottish independence will be set out today as the Scottish and UK governments outline their visions for the nation's constitutional future.
The Scottish Government is expected to set out several billion pounds of savings if assets such as embassies and defence equipment cannot be shared after independence.
9.01am BST
Many of today's newspapers - the Daily Record is having particular fun with it - carry pictures of Alex Salmond playing football that convince me my picture choice below was very kind. Although if there's a politician who can play football in a suit and tie without looking remotely foolish, I'd like to know about it.
Elsewhere reverberations from the European elections continue: the Scotsman leads on David Cameron as he arrived for talks with fellow EU leaders claiming Brussels was "too big, too bossy, too interfering".
The Herald's front page has Salmond's attack on what he calls the Treasury's "bogus" figures in its fiscal analysis of a post-independence Scotland, and the Treasury's retort that the FM's anger was "chaff" designed to distract from the "hole in its own figures".
But both the Herald and the Telegraph lead on NHS pressures; the story also makes the front of the Scotsman. The Telegraph says waiting times are "at their longest for years", while the Herald says vacancies for consultants "are at record levels".
8.21am BST
Danny Alexander, who will launch the Treasury report this morning, found himself on the sofa for the debut show of the BBC's new Scotland 2014 programme last night. He said he stood by the Treasury figures, arguing that: "The nationalist government seems to assume it's free [to set up an independent state]."
People would be worse off under independence, Alexander claimed:
Our ability to pool resources within the United Kingdom is one of the greatest benefits.
The deep pockets of the United Kingdom mean we see resources shared across the United Kingdom.
Alexander: As a Liberal Democrat in the coalition government, I'm proud of the work we've done. We've been able to share resources.
That recovery would be set right back on its heels [by a yes vote].
whether in the more moderate SNP guise or the more extreme Ukip guise.
#Scotland2014 sponsored by Tunnocks' new Armageddon Teacake. pic.twitter.com/j3dbd8LoUu
8.19am BST
In case you missed it last night, Severin Carrell also had this scoop major cinema chains have banned all adverts on the Scottish independence referendum after being inundated with complaints:
The pro-UK Better Together campaign said the vast majority of complaints had come from supporters of Scottish independence after Better Together and another pro-UK group, Vote No Borders, flooded Scottish cinemas with adverts urging a no vote.
The Odeon and Vue cinema chains confirmed that all the major chains, including the Cineworld group and UCI, had taken a collective decision to ban all referendum advertising from 5 June, a week into the four-month-long official campaign.
8.17am BST
The rival reports have already taken a battering, with Salmond accusing the UK Treasury of "trying to cook the books", following an early release from the report, which claimed the cost of setting up an independent Scottish state could be £1.5bn:
First Minister says Treasury has been "caught red handed trying to cook the books" over independence analysis, due to be published tomorrow
.@TimReidBBC but it's the author of the LSE report himself who is saying that the Treasury position 'badly misrepresents' the research
Just published: front page of the Financial Times UK edition Wed May 28 pic.twitter.com/tk6d52aTxJ
8.15am BST
Good morning and welcome to the Scotland live blog, in action this week as we head towards the start of the regulated referendum period on Friday. This marks a step up from the campaigning seen so far as the Electoral Commission puts it:
The two campaigners (Yes Scotland and Better Together) will now have access to specific benefits set out in law during the regulated referendum period which begins on 30 May.
These include a spending limit of £1.5m, a free delivery of campaign material to voters, referendum broadcasts and the use of public rooms.
Scotland will start life as an independent nation with access to our own wealth and a key stake in the £1.3tn of assets built up by the UK and funded by Scottish taxpayers.
Everyone in Scotland has contributed to this stockpile and Scotland is entitled to a fair share.
the most comprehensive analysis of the fiscal position of Scotland yet produced.
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