2016-03-16

Budget 2016 key points

Live coverage, news updates and analysis

Osborne announces new ‘lifetime ISA’ for young savers

‘Sugar levy’ on soft drinks to be spent on school sports

Growth forecasts cut but surplus target maintained

Restricts tax loopholes for big corporations

3.26pm GMT

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s report (pdf) shows that the tax burden is going up. It is 36.3% of GDP in 2015-16, which Labour says this is higher than any time during the last Labour government and higher than any time since the mid-1980s. By 2019-20 it is due to hit 37.5%

3.15pm GMT

How has George Osborne managing to promise a surplus in 2019-20, despite the deteriorating growth outlook?

The Office for Budget Responsibility has crunched the numbers, and says it is based on unexplained future cuts, tweaks to corporation tax, and welfare spending.

3.02pm GMT

Two Tory MPs have been on Twitter complaining about the sugar tax.

These are from Will Quince.

Very good Budget. Pleased with the the help for small businesses and young people. But disappointed by the sugar levy plans #Budget2016

RE: Sugar levy. OBR states the costs will be passed onto the consumer. Evidence suggests hits the poorest hardest. pic.twitter.com/HJbBSSclqH

In January 2016, I spoke against the introduction of a sugar tax in Parliament. My speech transcript is here: https://t.co/jDVgk5Dvg6

Sugar tax is deeply un-Conservative but the money it raises is at least going on children's health

2.59pm GMT

The Office for Budget Responsibility has worked out how the government is squeezing £2bn per year out of the public sector pension bill:

The Government has also placed an additional £2.0 billion a year squeeze on departments in that year by raising planned public service pension contributions, in line with a lower discount rate, but not compensating them for the additional costs they will face.

This reduces borrowing by displacing other departmental spending within existing expenditure limits, while reducing net spending on public service pensions;

2.54pm GMT

The government has admitted that it could take another 12 months to finally sell the taxpayers’ stake in Lloyds Banking Group to the public.

On page 93 of the budget statement, the Treasury says:

The government will continue to return its financial assets to the private sector through launching a retail sale in 2016-17 and fully exiting its stake in Lloyds Banking Group and raising up to £25 billion from its stake in RBS over the course of this Parliament.

2.54pm GMT

You can find all the budget documents on the Treasury website here.

2.52pm GMT

Three of the many health organisations that have campaigned for a sugar tax welcomed the news, though stressed that tother robust measures will also be needed to seriously tackle the obesity crisis.

Malcolm Clark, co-ordinator of the Children’s Food Campaign - an alliance of health, education and children’s organisations - hailed Osborne’s move as “a really important victory for children’s health”. He went on:

Not only will this tax on sugary drinks encourage people to shift towards healthier drinks, but it sends out a wider message about our need to cut down on sugar, and for businesses to reduce the sugar in their products.

The most effective way to tackle obesity is to reformulate products so we get levels of sugar and fat down, as we’ve done with salt. We would like to see a 50% reduction in added sugar and a 20% cut in fat over five years, though that may be a little unrealistic.

It is really promising news that the government has announced a tax on the soft drinks industry. We have been campaigning for this measure as we are all consuming too much sugar. This is contributing to the huge rise we are seeing in the numbers of people who are overweight and obese, and therefore at increased risk of Type 2 diabetes.

2.45pm GMT

A handy summary from the Office for Budget Responsibility, confirming that Osborne has only hit one of his three targets.

March 2016 forecast: At a glance #Budget2016 https://t.co/Pq7F5UzMMu pic.twitter.com/TOqO2Eh7bA

2.45pm GMT

Perhaps even more than previous Osborne budgets, this one seem to be chock full of references to the “next generation”. I counted at least ten. He wasn’t, Osborne said, going to “let the next generation pick up the bill” or this was a “budget for the next generation”, or a budget that “puts the next generation first” or in case any of these weren’t clear Osborne added, “Doing the right thing for the next generation is what this government is about”. He ended with commending to the house, “a budget that puts the next generation first”.

So for all this plethora of intergenerational words, what was the upshot?

That's it. No big housing announcement this time; a cynic might welcome that, given his record. The housing crisis rumbles on #Budget2016

2.36pm GMT

Osborne appears to be easing the purse strings in the next two financial years, but then whipping away the pot of jam in 2019-20 to wipe out the deficit.

Scorecard shows this is a BIG giveaway Budget for next few years. Then a BIG money-raiser afterwards. Pain later... pic.twitter.com/PdYNmexOES

2.34pm GMT

That table at 2.18pm also shows that the government has brought forward £1.7bn of capital expenditure that was previously planned for 2019-20.

Why?

2.26pm GMT

Here are some of the main points from Jeremy Corbyn’s response to the budget.

This budget has unfairness at its very core, paid for by those who can least afford it. [Osborne] could not have made his priorities clearer - while half a million people with disabilities are losing over 1 billion in personal independence payments, corporation tax is being cut and billions being handed out in tax cuts to the very wealthy.

If we as a society cannot protect our children from high levels of sugar and all that goes with it with the later crisis of health, cancer and diabetes then as a House we have failed the nation.

The gulf between what the Conservative government expects from the wealthiest and what it demands from ordinary British taxpayers could not be greater,” he said. The mates’ rates deals for big corporations on tax deals is something they will be forever remembered for.

I simply ask the chancellor this: If you can finance the giveaways that you have put in your Budget to different sectors, why can’t you fund the need for dignity for the disabled people of this country?

The budget the chancellor has just delivered is actually the culmination of six years of his failures. It’s a recovery built on sand on a budget of failure. He’s failed on the budget deficit, failed on debt, failed on investment, failed on productivity, failed on trade deficit, failed on the welfare cap, failed to tackle inequality in this country.

For all his talk of the Northern Powerhouse, the North East accounts for less than 1% of government’s infrastructure pipeline projects in construction. For all his rhetoric there’s been systematic under investment in the North.

2.24pm GMT

Leading shares increased their gains by the end of the chancellor’s speech, with the FTSE 100 rising from 6144 at the start of his speech to 6171 - up 31 points on the day - by the time he sat down.
Oil companies were boosted by news of tax changes for the North Sea oil sector, with BP up 3.5%, Shell 3% higher, Tullow Oil adding 6%, Cairn Energy climbing 3.7% and oil services business Wood Group 4% higher.
News of the increase to ISA savings limits lifted investment groups Hargreaves Lansdown, St James’s Place and Brewin Dolphin.
Bookmakers were relieved there were no new measures announced that would dampen their business, given talk of changes in the racing levy. Ladbrokes is up 7% and William Hill up 4.7%.
But the sugar tax on drinks left Irn Bru maker AG Barr 4.7% lower and Britvic down 2.5%.

2.21pm GMT

It’s not just squash-guzzling kids who are being targeted by the sugar tax....

Uh oh. The tonic in Gin & Tonic *will* be affected by the sugar tax if it contains enough sugar per 100ml

2.18pm GMT

The costs of the various policy decisions of the budget are out.

And they show that the chancellor is expecting to pull in around £2bn in 2019-20, and also in 2020-21, through changes to the ‘discount rate’ used to set some public sector pensions.

How does Osborne get to his surplus? A mix of a £5bn boost fr lower govn't borrowing costs + a raid on public service pensions #Budget2016

2.02pm GMT

Jamie Oliver, the chef and a vigorous campaigner for a sugar tax, said the hancellor’s announcement that he will tax the soft drinks industry was “amazing news”. He posted on Instagram:

We did it guys !! We did it !!! A sugar levy on sugary sweetened drinks ... A profound move that will ripple around the world ... business cannot come between our kids health !! Our kids health comes first ... Bold, brave, logical and supported by all the right people ... now bring on the whole strategy soon to come ... Amazing news.

1.56pm GMT

Jeremy Corbyn is responding to the budget now. He is delivering a decent speech, and getting a respectable hearing, although he has made little attempt to engage with the specific measures in the budget so far.

This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

Corbyn doing ok but so far entirely prepared speech - no response to what Osborne announced today..sugar tax, new pensions, mystery numbers

1.51pm GMT

There was speculation about that being a boring budget, but in practice it was nothing of the kind. There were plenty of eye-catching announcements, although until we’ve had a chance to go through the numbers, it is hard to know how substantial any of these measures are. Recently the government has been playing down the prospects of a sugar tax, but Osborne has discovered his faith in interventionist, nanny state government with a levy that will be welcomed by public health specialists. The plans for lifetimes ISAs are at least a nod to the concerns of those in their 20s and 30s who cannot afford a house. But, overall, there was a strong Tory strain to these measures too. What he said about how his business rate reforms would help small businesses sounded like archetypal Thatcher (although she introduced business rates - but that’s another story) and, announcing his increase in the higher rate threshold, Osborne even evoked the memory of Nigel Lawson. He said it was the biggest cut of its kind since Lawson cut the top rate to 40p. That, of course, was a measure that helped the wealthy, and we’ll soon find out, from the red book, how regressive this budget is overall. Quite a lot, probably.

1.50pm GMT

The Treasury have published all the budget announcements here.

1.48pm GMT

Economists are swiftly pointing to the problem with the new Lifetime ISA for under-40s - it’s no use if you’ve got NO spare money to invest.

Lifetime ISA of government giving under 40s £1 for every £4 they save is great for well off young. The poorer ones can't save...

Still, a nice giveaway for rich parents. https://t.co/KfcqMgr7SJ

1.40pm GMT

Despite Osborne’s best efforts to talk up today’s budget, the bottom line is that Britain’s economy looks rather weaker than at November’s autumn statement.

Growth has been cut every year between now and 2020. And the new forecast of 2% growth this year could prove optimistic, if the global economy worsens.

Slightly worse for a bit, then right back to where we were. #Budget2016 pic.twitter.com/SHJQKsXppM

UK corporation tax rate will be 22 percentage points lower than US rate by 2020 (39% vs. 17%). #Budget2016

Like VAT, sugar tax will take a higher % of income of poorer people. It's a regressive tax dressed up prettily #Budget2016

1.38pm GMT

Osborne turns to income tax.

1.35pm GMT

Osborne turns to pensions.

He says his proposals on pensions were criticised by the Lib Dem former pensions minister, Steve Webb. He said Osborne was planning to abolish the lump sum.

1.31pm GMT

Osborne says too many people in their 20s have no pensions or savings.

He wants to help, he says.

1.30pm GMT

Osborne says he is going to abolish class 2 national insurance contributions for the self-employed.

1.28pm GMT

Shares in some of Britain’s drinks companies are sliding, following news of Osborne’s new sugar tax :

Sugar tax on drinks sends Britvic down 3%, Irn Bru maker AG Barr down nearly 5%

1.28pm GMT

Osborne turns to drink.

1.27pm GMT

Osborne turns to petrol duty.

It was frozen in the last parliament, he says. That saved £7bn.

1.26pm GMT

A sugar rabbit.....? #Budget2016 pic.twitter.com/rfibfDPZFi

1.26pm GMT

£12 million from the Tampon Tax allocated to charities across the UK from Breast Cancer Care to the White Ribbon Campaign #Budget2016

1.25pm GMT

Osborne turns to child health.

A child age five eats their body weight in sugar every year, he says.

1.21pm GMT

Osborne turns to education.

Investing in schooling is the most important thing a government can do, he says.

1.18pm GMT

Osborne announces £20m for cathedral repairs. And there is another joke.

Because there is one thing that is pretty clear these days - the Conservative party is a broad church.

1.18pm GMT

1.18pm GMT

Osborne turns to flooding.

1.17pm GMT

He is also accepting the infrastructure commission’s recommendations on energy and London too.

And he jokes that Jeremy Corbyn will welcome the Crossrail 2 announcement. It is aimed at those like him who are “living in north London and heading south”.

1.16pm GMT

Osborne praises Andrew Adonis for his work as chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, and he confirms plans to go ahead with HS3.

1.15pm GMT

Osborne announces an initiative to tackle homelessness.

1.15pm GMT

Osborne says the new stamp duty rules will come into force in April. Large investors will be covered, he says.

1.14pm GMT

Osborne says he wants to speed up planning, and prepare Britain for G5 technology.

1.13pm GMT

Osborne says the Greater London Authority will move towards the full retention of business rates from next April - three years earlier than planned.

1.13pm GMT

Osborne turns to devolution.

1.11pm GMT

Osborne says an air ambulance service will be created for Northern Ireland.

1.11pm GMT

Osborne says a new city deal has been signed for the Cardiff region.

1.10pm GMT

Osborne announces tax cuts for the oil and gas industry.

1.07pm GMT

Osborne announces a reform to stamp duty.

1.06pm GMT

Osborne turns to reforms of business rates.

1.04pm GMT

Osborne says many firms feel the face unfair competition from internet suppliers. Some of them do not pay VAT. The government will stop that.

1.01pm GMT

Osborne says his budget last year delivered measures to improve producivity.

First, he turns to measures to reform business taxes.

1.00pm GMT

two of his three fiscal rules missed by Chancellor in four months: the Welfare Cap and the Supplementary Debt Target. Meets surplus tho.

12.59pm GMT

The new debt/GDP forecasts mean that George Osborne has missed his target of starting to cut the national debt, as a percentage of output, this financial year. That now won’t happen until 2017-2018:

#Budget2016 UK debt/GDP: above target in 2015/16 (Osborne misses his fiscal target) 86.2% in 2017, 81.3%, 79.9%, 77.2%, 74.7%

12.57pm GMT

Chancellor: In 2019-20 Britain is set to have a surplus of £10.4bn #Budget2016

12.56pm GMT

Osborne says in cash terms the national debt is lower than it was forecast to be. But so is the nominal size of the economy.

So debt as a percentage of the GDP is higher. But it is lower in cash terms.

12.50pm GMT

Osborne says he wants to keep public pensions sustainable.

The changes in the last parliament saved £400bn in the long-run, he says.

12.50pm GMT

The Office for Budget Responsibility has made some significant downgrades to its growth forecasts for every year until 2020.

Here are the new forecasts, compared to the ones just four months ago:

Sharp downgrade in the @OBR_UK GDP forecast for 2016, from 2.4% in the autumn statement to 2%. Will hit tax receipts.

12.49pm GMT

Osborne says the government is announcing changes to the disability budget.

But spending on disability is rising, and is higher than under Labour, he says.

12.49pm GMT

Inflation in 2016 will be just 0.7%, says Osborne, down from 1% expected in November.

12.49pm GMT

12.49pm GMT

Osborne says the government was spending 45% of GDP in 2010. In the last parliament the government got that down to 40%.

12.48pm GMT

The inflation target for 2017 has been revised down to 1.7%, from 1.8%.

12.48pm GMT

Osborne says he has written to the Bank of England, confirming that the central bank should continue to target an inflation rate of 2%.

He has also asked them to be ‘particularly vigilant’ about market turmoil.

12.47pm GMT

Osborne says, when the economy is growing, Labour says the government can afford to spend more. And when it is not growing Labour says it needs to spend more.

He says he is today publishing a report showing that, if spending had not been cut, the government would have spent £930bn more by the end of the decade.

12.46pm GMT

Osborne says he is writing to the Bank of England saying its inflation target is still 2%.

12.45pm GMT

Osborne turns to the forecast for the labour market.

More jobs have been created than the OBR expected.

12.43pm GMT

Osborne says the OBR is making is forecasts on the assumption that the UK will vote to stay in the EU.

And he reads from the OBR report saying that a vote to leave would result in a period of “disruptive uncertainty”.

12.42pm GMT

Osborne turns to growth.

12.41pm GMT

Osborne says eight years ago Britain was the worst-prepared of the major economies for the challenges it faced.

Now it is one of the best.

12.40pm GMT

Osborne says he fixes his plans to fit the figures, not the other way around (as Labour did, he implies.)

12.39pm GMT

Osborne turns to the forecasts.

12.37pm GMT

He turns to the economic forecasts.

Today he is accepting the recommendations of the report into the Office for Budget Responsibility, he says.

12.36pm GMT

Osborne says the best way to help working people is to help them save and to let them keep more of the money they earn.

12.36pm GMT

Osborne says the outlook for the global economy is weak. It makes for a cocktail of risk.

He says Britain knows what happens if you assume you have abolished boom and bust.

12.35pm GMT

George Osborne rises to a big cheer.

Today he reports on an economy set to grow faster than any other major economy in the world, he says.

12.33pm GMT

PMQs is over. Lindsay Hoyle, the deputy speaker, is taking the chair.

12.32pm GMT

Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, asks about the budget plan to make all schools in England academies. This is counter to the government’s commitment to devolution, she argues.

Cameron says this is true devolution. The government is putting all headteachers in charge of their schools.

12.30pm GMT

Frances Osborne, the chancellor’s wife and author, has come to support her husband:

Mrs Osborne sitting in VIP gallery to watch her husband. Also dressed in navy blue.

12.29pm GMT

(I prepared this while the system was down.)

Cameron says employment is at a new record high. There are 2,370,000 more people in work than when he became prime minister.

12.29pm GMT

Any listacle of the world’s worst jobs could probably include responding to the Budget speech.

Giving an instant reaction and critique to the nation’s tax and spending plans is a truly daunting task. And today, that falls to Jeremy Corbyn....

Big moment for @jeremycorbyn, who must respond to Osborne's #budget2016 - one of the toughest tasks for any opposition leader.

12.28pm GMT

Sorry the blog has been off air for almost an hour. Our system crashed. But we seem to be back in action now.

11.35am GMT

It is George Osborne’s eighth budget. But, if you take into account autumn statements and spending reviews, it is his 16th big economic statement to the Commons since 2010, according to the tax campaigner Richard Murphy.

Today is the sixteenth budget (or equivalent) statement George Osborne has done since 2010. Do we really need that many? #Budget2016

11.30am GMT

And, according to Number 10, George Osborne told the cabinet it would be a budget for the next generation, suggesting he could try to address criticism the Tory leadership has neglected the needs of the young while wooing older and better off voters.

(Perhaps he’s been reading the Guardian series about millennials.)

11.24am GMT

According to Number 10, this is what David Cameron told the cabinet about the budget.

This is a pro-enterprise, pro-infrastructure, pro-devolution budget that fully sums up what this government is all about - transformation.

11.21am GMT

George Osborne has just emerged from Downing Street and is being driven the short distance to the Houses of Parliament.

He posed for the traditional Red Box photo, with the Treasury team:

11.18am GMT

The bookmakers reckon we’ll hear the word ‘tax’ a lot today.

Sporting Index predict George Osborne will utter the T-word 95 times during his speech. That’s almost twice a minute.

11.07am GMT

Here are two more budget stories from today’s papers.

Plans to reduce capital gains tax have been examined by Treasury officials as ministers look at ways to encourage people to sell their second homes.

George Osborne has suggested that he is keen to cut the tax after the Liberal Democrats forced him to raise it during coalition negotiations in 2010.

11.03am GMT

The Department for Work and Pensions have created a GIF showing how the UK labour force has risen over the last six years:

Over 2.3m more people are in work since 2010, maintaining a record high rate of 74.1% #getbritainworking pic.twitter.com/XYBpqdsQzR

10.51am GMT

Daniel Finkelstein, a Conservative peer, argues in his Times column today (paywall) that expecting the leader of the opposition to respond instantly and in detail to the announcements in the budget is daft. He has some advice for Jeremy Corbyn.

Faced with this challenge, Jeremy Corbyn should use his favourite technique. He shouldn’t even bother. He should say that he will reply to the budget once he has studied it. Instead, he should outline the fundamental critique of Conservative economic policy that Labour is now moving towards.

10.42am GMT

The Labour MP Lindsay Hoyle has a copy of the budget statement.

My advance copy of #Budget2016 statement 2016 has arrived. Eyes down at 12.30 for @George_Osborne & @jeremycorbyn pic.twitter.com/IzxZHxGXEF

10.37am GMT

Gabriel Sterne of Oxford Economics suggests the chancellor is missing a trick by not taking advantage of today’s cheap borrowing costs (echoing Pimco’s Mike Avey earlier today)

Unselfish of Osborne to "put next generation first", but they might wonder why we self-flagellated when growth and interest rates so low.

10.34am GMT

Another reason to raise fuel duty:

Here's why petrol duties should probably rise in today's Budget. The cost of driving has never been cheaper pic.twitter.com/v7y68ciCIm

10.19am GMT

There’s a calm mood in the City ahead of the budget, with the FTSE 100 index basically flat.

Alastair McCaig, market analyst at IG, reckons Osborne could turn to the so-called “sin taxes” to shore up the finances.

Expectations are high; the usual suspects of cigarettes and alcohol will come under the microscope, along with the much delayed increase in fuel charges.

6. Fuel: if not going to raise duty now, never will. Oil price well below his $75 "trigger" 2011 Budget for RPI+1 pic.twitter.com/f8dQ0WV0Zb

10.15am GMT

The ONS has also released figures today on public sector employment.

As Sky’s economics editor Ed Conway points out, there is a chart in the report that illustrates how austerity has hit local government much more than central government.

Striking @ONS chart underlines where austerity has really hit: local rather than central government pic.twitter.com/b8QYRg1rA6

Changes in public sector employment by region over the past year. Wales by far and away the worst-hit by cuts pic.twitter.com/ke1mUC9eJv

10.04am GMT

And John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has tweeted a short video about Osborne’s budget too.

Today’s #Budget2016 is George Osborne's 8th as Chancellor. He’s failed on every measure he has ever set himself.https://t.co/bp2fRfEKIM

10.04am GMT

Today’s employment report also shows the impact of austerity on local councils:

Striking @ONS chart underlines where austerity has really hit: local rather than central government pic.twitter.com/b8QYRg1rA6

10.02am GMT

George Osborne has tweeted about his budget.

Today's Budget sets out long term solutions to long term problems. It's a Budget that puts the next generation first pic.twitter.com/ZMN6HrRN7u

9.59am GMT

The cabinet met this morning to be briefed by George Osborne on the budget.

The Telegraph’s Harry Yorke was outside Number 10 as ministers came out afterwards.

Elizabeth Truss, jovial as always. Said the budget "was very good". pic.twitter.com/sIo6BwhSsW

Theresa May walked briskly away. Home office budget looks likely to remain unchanged pic.twitter.com/Wdi5BnzCL3

Michael Gove wins the day. Fastest minister out of the door, peppered with questions about the Queen pic.twitter.com/jOwLDInhG9

9.47am GMT

Today’s unemployment report also shows the impact of George Osborne’s squeeze on public sector jobs:

9.44am GMT

The latest UK unemployment report has just been released (online here)

It shows that Britain’s jobless rate remains at a ten-year low of 5.1% in the three months to January, while the employment rate is a joint record-high of 74.1%.

#Unemployment rate 5.1% for Nov-Jan 2016, down from 5.7% a year earlier https://t.co/EXJY3Ez5FF pic.twitter.com/ubCeDPxiiZ

For Nov-Jan 2016 wages up 2.1% on a year earlier including bonuses, & 2.2% excluding bonuses https://t.co/lENN9CpuIs pic.twitter.com/ynUQ1VNPLS

Average earnings increased by 2.1% in the year to January, 0.2% up on the previous month.

9.42am GMT

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has said he expects the budget to go back to “the old politics of spin and little substance”. He said:

This budget looks more like a press stunt to hide George Osborne’s failures than about any serious policy.

Take his education announcement, it won’t address the real issue in our education system around increasing class sizes, shortage of teachers and lack of school places by just forcing schools to become academies.

9.29am GMT

The Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell has coined a good budget aphorism.

If you find money down the back of a sofa, it's likely you're the kind of person that loses it there as well... https://t.co/4jGwpDfvnt

9.24am GMT

Some historical context, from Royal Bank of Scotland:

The median Briton (40 years old) has seen 5 budget surpluses in their lifetime. #Budget2016 pic.twitter.com/QI1IsTN7jp

9.23am GMT

We’ve pulled together the important data you need to know ahead of today’s budget:

Related: Budget 2016: five key charts showing what you need to know

9.14am GMT

A top executive at the world’s largest government bond trader has urged George Osborne to borrow more money from the financial markets, rather than imposing fresh cuts.

Mike Amey of Pimco, told Radio 5 Live’s Wake Up To Money programme that the government could simply tap international investors (such as Pimco) to make up for any shortfall in today’s budget, rather than imposing more austerity.

The pressure on the government to keep relentlessly cutting the deficit is lower.

The economy is under a bit of pressure, so there is an argument with very low interest rates for some infrastructure spending, and doing it now rather than promising to do it in the future.

9.08am GMT

As the Guardian reported overnight, one of the key proposals in the budget will involve making all schools in England academies and trying to extend the school day.

Related: Osborne to focus budget on plan to turn all English schools into academies

Longer school days: the news from 17 years ago. https://t.co/xWx50yHZUp

9.01am GMT

Today’s budget speech could be quite gloomy.

We’re expecting George Osborne to warn that “storm clouds are gathering again” over the UK economy, which means the government will “act now so we don’t pay later”.

Chancellor expected to say: "Our economy is strong, but the storm clouds are gathering again.
"Our response to this new challenge is clear..

.@George_Osborne expected to say "storm clouds" are hanging over economy & Govt will "act now so we don't pay later" #Budget2016

8.57am GMT

Here is a video from our colleague Helen Pidd showing what the people of Teeside think of George Osborne’s Northern Powerhouse idea, and what they would like to see in the budget.

8.45am GMT

George Osborne, the chancellor, is delivering his eighth budget today and, according to the BBC’s Ross Hawkins, he seems to have been up early getting ready.

Lights on in Number 11, Budget Day 2016 @BBCBreakfast pic.twitter.com/dKu0FRGRlH

Wednesday's FT:
Osborne to break second promise in Budget of fiscal claustrophobia#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/cTPA95IZvt

Related: Budget 2016: George Osborne to announce fresh austerity measures

Related: George Osborne keeps austerity in mind for his eighth budget

8.22am GMT

Rules are made to be broken, according to US general Douglas MacArthur. But George Osborne is only likely to partially follow that advice today.

Economists are confident that the chancellor will miss his goal of cutting Britain’s national debt, as a percentage of national output, in the 2015-16 financial year.

Why has deficit reduction failed to keep pace?Not so much ec growth but more weak wage growth which = weak income-based tax take #Budget2016

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