Number of crowd-pleasers in Wales set to dwindle further, whatever the outcome of the Heineken Cup debate
This year's Heineken Cup launch felt a bit like one of those awkward family meals when the parents have just separated but have regathered briefly for the sake of the kids. On one side, plans are being made for a fresh new relationship. On the other, people are still wondering how to glue the fragments of the old one back together. A sombre mix of melancholy and frustration filled the damp Cardiff air.
The chances of a cosy rapprochement – or at least a happy ending that satisfies all sides – remain as unlikely as ever. As things stand this will be the final edition of European club rugby's favourite tournament and no amount of sexy video clips of Munster celebrating epic past victories could disguise the fact. "It's simply too good to lose," sighed Roger Lewis, the Welsh Rugby Union's chief executive, omitting to add that the raison d'être of the regional game in his own nation would all but much disappear without it.
The presence in the same room of all the leading English club representatives certainly underlined just how firmly Welsh domestic rugby is wedged between a chunk of Cambrian rock and a hard place. Where George North, Dan Lydiate, Mike Phillips, Jamie Roberts, James Hook et al would once have been gearing up for Heineken Cup campaigns in the colours of their respective regions, they are all now employed elsewhere. With Leigh Halfpenny having reportedly being offered his weight in euros by Toulon, the number of Welsh crowd-pleasers is set to dwindle further, regardless of the outcome of the vexed European rugby debate.
The Scarlets have not qualified for the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup since 2006/07, the Dragons have never done so and the Cardiff Blues lost to Italian minnows Zebre in the RaboDirect Pro12 the other day. None of this is the fault of supposedly villainous English club owners, it is just the inexorable direction in which the market is shifting.
It has been the same in Scotland since the dawn of professionalism, while Italian clubs are continuing their perennial struggle for mass popular appeal. Assuming the proposed new Rugby Champions' Cup does get off the ground, the good men of the SRU, WRU and FIR would ultimately seem to have little choice but to accept the open invitation to join if they wanted to avoid financial meltdown. Even the Irish Rugby Football Union would eventually have to reassess its position if the current Anglo-French club alliance holds firm. Without anyone decent to play, even the currently healthy finances of Leinster would not stay buoyant for very long.
Which leads us to England, or more specifically the Rugby Football Union. The RFU has yet to declare publicly whether it is standing firmly behind its clubs or alongside its neighbouring unions in the latest ruck but some reckon it has no real choice, regardless of traditional etiquette.
"The players are contracted to their clubs and the Premiership is their bread and butter," stressed Richard Cockerill, Leicester's director of rugby. "If, hypothetically, they tried to exclude every Premiership player, then they would do well to sell out Twickenham. Try going to the 2015 Rugby World Cup without any players … that would work well, wouldn't it?"
In other words, the landscape has altered fundamentally from the distant days when the Heineken Cup was born. The clubs no longer feel they have to tug their forelocks to union patricians and, as they see it, will not be obliged to do so once their existing contractual agreements have lapsed. European Rugby Cup Ltd kept insisting in Cardiff that much talking is still being done behind the scenes but virtually no-one in England and France appears to be listening.
The best-case scenario for those still seeking some kind of compromise, then, would appear to go something like this. European Rugby Cup Ltd concedes the need for change, accepts the English and French clubs are not coming back and agrees to wind itself up, on the crucial condition that a deal can be brokered that gives its broadcasting partner Sky, in conjunction with BT Sport, a slice of the action, in terms of covering the new tournament.
This must currently be regarded as wishful thinking, given both broadcasters hold what they regard as binding contracts, but ultimately the whole argument now crystallises around this high-stakes issue. If the rival broadcasters cannot reach some kind of arrangement, the lawyers will have a major field day.
The French and English clubs, secondly, would have to accept publicly that a purely Anglo-French tournament is in no one's interests and stick to their promise to ensure an even financial split of the proceeds between the three main European leagues – the Premiership, Pro12 and Top 14. Thirdly, all the various unions would have to agree to soften their collective stance and acknowledge that club tournaments run by the clubs competing in them is hardly the most revolutionary of ideas. Tick those three boxes and we can start talking about rugby again.
Shock wave
The result of the weekend? If nothing else New Zealand Schools' historic 22-20 defeat by Fiji Schools in Sydney is a thought-provoking scoreline. Imagine if Fiji's youngsters – who scored four tries to two against a team featuring Warren Gatland's son Bryn at fly-half – were to do the same at senior Test level one day? Imagine if their up-and-coming players, now receiving more IRB-funded coaching assistance, decide that representing Fiji is as fulfilling as moving offshore to play for other nations? No one is suggesting any of this will happen overnight but the lagoon of Pacific Island rugby talent is clearly still overflowing.
Prediction of the week
A bad weekend for old bunny ears, who now trails 2-1 courtesy of Saracens' win over Harlequins. This week it is Four Nations prediction time: New Zealand to win at Ellis Park is my hunch but our resident rabbit punter has plunged unhesitatingly for the food bowl marked 'South Africa'. A tense, reputation-defining weekend looms.
Heineken Cup
Rugby Football Union
Scarlets
Munster
Cardiff Blues
RaboDirect Pro12 2013-14
Rugby union
Robert Kitson
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