Why Manti Te'o will join the Vikings as the 25th pick – and other delicious acts of pre-Draft speculation
Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III. If anybody needed convincing of the importance of the NFL draft, they would need look no further than last season's draft, and how those three rookie quarterbacks then steered their teams to the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins had all posted losing records a year previously.
Of course, the draft is about more than just one-year turnarounds. It has long been mooted that Super Bowls are won in April, and research published by ESPN The Magazine this month would appear to support that theory. After using advanced player performance metrics to rate the contributions of every player selected since 1994, ESPN established that the six most astute teams on draft day had won 11 of the past 13 NFL titles.
This year's draft begins on Thursday, at Radio City Music Hall in New York City, and we will be live blogging the first round from 7.45pm ET Thursday/12.45am GMT Friday. Here's hoping you'll join us for that. In the meantime, let's indulge in the time-honoured tradition of speculating wildly as to how that first round will play out. Disagree with these choices? Let us know below the line.
(NB: for the purposes of this mock, we have kept teams in their present drafting positions. In practice, of course, it is highly likely that at least one or two teams will look to trade up or down between now and Thursday – as well as on the day itself. Even the teams themselves, though, do not know yet how those negotiations are likely to play out.)
And, just in case, here's a refresher on how the Draft works
1) Kansas City Chiefs
Last season: 2-14
Needs: Offensive tackle, defensive end, linebacker, wide receiver
Pick: Luke Joeckel, offensive tackle, Texas A&M
In a typical year we might have already known which way the Chiefs intended to go with the first overall pick, but it speaks to the lack of a stand-out talent in this draft class that the team's general manager, John Dorsey, was able to claim on Friday that there were still four guys in the running. Of course, all such comments must be taken with a heavy pinch of salt. By creating the impression that they have different options with the No1 pick, the Chiefs strengthen their negotiating position with player agents and create doubt in the minds of the teams drafting behind them – increasing the chance that somebody could attempt to trade up.
Realistically, though, they are likely to take one of the two best offensive tackles available – Joeckel or Eric Fisher. The Chiefs' starting left tackle, Branden Albert, wants out, and though they have placed the franchise tag on him they have also let it be known that they are open to trades. Even if Albert were to remain for one more year, either of the two aforementioned rookies could spend a season at right tackle before shifting across to replace him on the left.
Fisher has risen swiftly up the draft boards after some impressive workouts, but Joeckel remains my pick – having proven himself against a higher level of competition in college, at Texas A&M, than Fisher faced with Central Michigan.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season: 2-14
Needs: A lot. But especially a quarterback and a quality pass rusher
Pick: Dion Jordan, outside linebacker/defensive end, Oregon
Two years into his NFL career, it is increasingly clear that Blaine Gabbert is not the franchise quarterback that Jacksonville were dreaming of. Sadly for the Jags, there are no signal callers in this year's draft class with the pedigree of a Luck or RG3. West Virginia's Geno Smith might be the only quarterback worthy of a first-round grade, and he would be a reach at No2 overall.
The Jags are prime candidates to trade down, but if they don't receive a good enough offer they will likely go with a pass rusher here instead – and postpone their quarterback search to rounds two or three (where, after all, Wilson was found last year). Jacksonville recorded just 20 sacks in 2012, the fewest in the league by some way.
BYU's Ezekiel Ansah – an explosive Ghanaian athlete who only discovered the sport in 2010 – has seen his stock rise dramatically over the last few days, but I can't believe the Jags would risk such a high pick on a player who has started just nine games in his career. Jordan is, again, the "safer" choice.
3) Oakland Raiders
Last season: 4-12
Needs: It might be easier to list what Oakland don't need at this point. They are all set at kicker.
Pick: Sharrif Floyd, defensive tackle, Florida
The Raiders, presently without a second-round pick, should do everything they can to trade down, because they have a lot of holes to fill and very little salary cap room to do it with. But if they stay pat, then Sharrif Floyd seems to be the obvious choice. A ferocious interior lineman who has drawn comparison with Houston's JJ Watt, Floyd will help compensate for the departure of seven-time Pro Bowler Richard Seymour.
4) Philadelphia Eagles
Last season: 4-12
Needs: Offensive line, quarterback, defensive line, cornerback
Pick: Geno Smith, quarterback, West Virginia
Few teams are harder to read than the Eagles, a franchise with plenty of needs and a new head coach taking his first crack at the NFL. Chip Kelly has played down the suggestion that his offensive system requires a mobile quarterback but many have claimed that he and his staff are high on Geno Smith.
The presence of team owner Jeffrey Lurie at Smith's workout for the team has lent credence to such claims. According to Lurie himself, this was the first time he had attended such an event since 1999 – when he went to see Donovan McNabb, a player who would become their starting quarterback for more than a decade. Smith is still a big reach this high in the draft, and it won't matter who is under center if Philadelphia block as poorly up front as they did last year. But if Kelly and the Eagles believe Smith can become their franchise quarterback, that logic might just override all else.
5) Detroit Lions
Last season: 4-12
Needs: Offensive tackle, defensive end, outside linebacker, defensive backs
Pick: Eric Fisher, offensive tackle, Central Michigan
Detroit have a number of holes to fill, and offensive tackle is definitely one of them after Jeff Backus retired and Gosder Cherilus made his way to Indianapolis. Some scouts have Fisher as the leading talent at any position in this year's draft and it is hard to imagine Detroit passing him up if he falls to them here.
6) Cleveland Browns
Last season: 5-11
Needs: Cornerback, safety, wide receiver, tight end
Pick: Dee Milliner, cornerback, Alabama
Yet another team who would be content to trade down, Cleveland could well find a few suitors in this spot. The price is likely to be a little less steep than it would have been for the first five picks, and this might also be the point at which teams down the order begin to get antsy, as the top talents at key positions like offensive tackle disappear off the board.
If not, Milliner would be a great fit. The consensus best cornerback in the draft, he has prototypical size (6ft 1in, 197lbs), and although some scouts have raised concerns about his relative lack of interceptions in college (just six in three seasons), he would provide an instant upgrade to Cleveland's porous secondary.
7) Arizona Cardinals
Last season: 5-11
Needs: Offensive line, linebacker, safety, defensive end
Pick: Lane Johnson, offensive tackle, Oklahoma
The Cardinals are in for an anxious wait on Thursday. A team which surrendered a league-high 58 sacks last year has done little so far to address its myriad problems along the offensive line, and must hope that at least one of Joeckel, Fisher or Johnson is still available by the time it is on the clock. If the first five picks play out as I have envisaged, the likelihood of another team trading with Cleveland to get ahead of Arizona will be significant. That would give the Cardinals some tough decisions to make, but if Johnson falls to them here then this becomes an obvious pick.
8) Buffalo Bills
Last season: 6-10
Needs: Quarterback, offensive guard, linebacker, wide receiver
Pick: Jonathan Cooper, offensive guard, North Carolina
Geno Smith is off the board in our scenario, though word has it that the Bills aren't that keen in any case. This is a high pick to use on a guard, but Buffalo need a replacement for Andy Levitre and both Cooper and Alabama's Chance Warmack are considered rare talents at the position. Both have received similarly high grades from scouts, so the Bills could just as easily take Warmack if they do decide to go down this route.
9) New York Jets
Last season: 6-10
Needs: Quarterback, outside linebacker, defensive backs, guard, prevailing mood of sanity
Pick: Ezequiel Ansah, defensive end/outside linebacker, BYU
The Jets' offense remains a mess, but after a number of offseason departures they now have pressing needs on defense as well. Somehow you suspect that Rex Ryan is always going to address that side of the ball first. New York need pass rushers and while LSU's Barkevious Mingo has greater experience, Ansah's raw skillset may appeal.
Ansah still has a lot to learn about the game, but his combination of size (6ft 5in, 271lbs) and speed (he has been clocked at 4.63 seconds in the 40-yard dash) is special. Someone is going to take a chance on him, and though Ansah enjoyed more success as a down lineman during his last year in college, there is no reason why he can't eventually be effective rushing the passer from a two-point stance.
10) Tennessee Titans
Last season: 6-10
Needs: Offensive guard, cornerback, defensive end
Pick: Chance Warmack, offensive guard, Alabama
There is little patience in Tennessee for a slow rebuilding project, so after making 12 additions in free agency, the Titans are looking for rookies who can contribute straight away. Warmack fits the bill, as well as addressing an area of need.
11) San Diego Chargers
Last season: 7-9
Needs: Offensive tackle, nose tackle, safety, linebacker, cornerback
Pick: Star Lotulelei, defensive tackle, Utah
Jared Gaither is gone, and although he will not be especially missed in San Diego his departure does leave the Chargers needing a new left tackle. They are prime candidates to trade up for a shot at Joeckel, Fisher or Johnson, but if they stay where they are then the Bolts will face a tricky decision. There are no other left tackles on the board who merit the use of such a high pick.
Lotulelei would at least provide a more than adequate consolation prize – a versatile and dominant defender whose stock has slipped since a health scare at the Scouting Combine but who could slot right in at nose tackle – or even at end – in San Diego's 3-4.
12) Miami Dolphins
Last season: 7-9
Needs: Offensive line, defensive line, outside linebacker, safety, cornerback
Pick: DJ Fluker, offensive tackle, Alabama
Miami also have a vacancy at left tackle, after Jake Long signed with St Louis. The Dolphins, with five picks in the first three rounds, are well-positioned to trade up, but might also consider the in-house solution of switching their starting right tackle, Jonathan Martin, across to become his replacement (a move they trialled last year while Long was out injured). That would allow them to select Fluker – a 339lbs bulldozer who could start from day one at right tackle, but lacks the nimble feet required to protect a quarterback's blind-side.
13) New York Jets (via Tampa Bay)
Pick: Desmond Trufant, cornerback, Washington
This would be pretty much the dream scenario for New York, who dealt Darrelle Revis to Tampa Bay on Sunday and could now use one of the draft picks they received in that trade to select his long-term replacement. Trufant's older brother, Isaiah, is already on the Jets' roster and featured in nine games last year, mostly on special teams. But Desmond is closer in ability to another sibling, Marcus Trufant – a first-round draft pick for the Seattle Seahawks all the way back in 2003.
14) Carolina Panthers
Last season: 7-9
Needs: Defensive tackle, offensive tackle, wide receiver, cornerback
Pick: Sheldon Richardson, defensive tackle, Missouri
There is peculiar consensus around this pick, Richardson's name having appeared at this spot in almost every mock draft I've seen over the weeks and months leading up to the draft. Perhaps we will discover on Thursday that it was all just part of a devious campaign of subliminal misinformation, broadcast by the team. But on paper, Richardson makes a lot of sense – a defensive tackle capable of penetrating the line and causing trouble in the opposition's backfield.
15) New Orleans Saints
Last season: 7-9
Needs: Linebacker, offensive tackle, defensive end, defensive backs
Pick: Barkevious Mingo, outside linebacker/defensive end, LSU
Mingo would be delighted to wind up with New Orleans – having played his college football just up the road, in Baton Rouge. The Saints should be happy too; Mingo is rated as a top-five pick by some scouts. Although undersized for an end, he could slot in neatly at outside linebacker in New Orleans's new 3-4 defense.
16) St Louis Rams
Last season: 7-8-1
Needs: Wide receiver, safety, running back, defensive tackle
Pick: Tavon Austin, wide receiver, West Virginia
Undersized at 5ft 8½in, Austin is nevertheless the best receiver in this year's draft, a jet-heeled playmaker who could well sneak into the top 10. If not, he would be gratefully received in St Louis, where quarterback Sam Bradford is mourning not only the loss of his favourite target, Danny Amendola – to New England – but also that of Brandon Gibson to Miami.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season: 8-8
Needs: Outside linebacker, wide receiver, running back, defensive back
Pick: Jarvis Jones, defensive end/outside linebacker, Georgia
A dominant player in college, Jones has slipped down draft boards amid concern over his slow 40-yard time (he clocked 4.92 at his Pro Day), as well as his long-term durability. Spinal stenosis, a narrowing of the spinal column, was diagnosed in 2009 but Jones was subsequently cleared. He was a consistent playmaker in college, recording 28 sacks and 45½ tackles for a loss in two seasons at Georgia, and the Steelers need to fill the void left by the loss of James Harrison.
18) Dallas Cowboys
Last season: 8-8
Needs: Offensive line, safety, defensive tackle, running back
Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, safety, Texas
Tony Romo often carries the can for the Cowboys' offensive calamities, but the truth is that not many quarterbacks look great when they are running for their lives. Dallas must address their offensive-line frailties in this draft, but they would have a hard time passing up Vaccaro – a hard-hitting local kid who is this year's clear stand-out at safety – a position which the Cowboys also need to upgrade.
19) New York Giants
Last season: 9-7
Needs: Defensive line, linebacker, cornerback, offensive line
Pick: Xavier Rhodes, cornerback, Florida State
Only the Saints gave up more yards per game than the Giants last season. New York need an almost total overhaul of their starting defense, and can begin it here with the selection of Rhodes, a tall and physical cornerback who excels at challenging receivers on the line of scrimmage.
20) Chicago Bears
Last season: 10-6
Needs: Offensive line, linebacker, cornerback, wide receiver
Pick: Alec Ogletree, inside linebacker, Georgia
There is a Brian Urlacher-shaped hole at the heart of the Bears' defense, after the team was unable to reach agreement on a new contract for a player who had been with them for the past 13 years. He will not be easily replaced, but Ogletree is the top inside linebacker in this year's draft, boasting greater range and athleticism than the more talked-about Manti Te'o.
21) Cincinnati Bengals
Last season: 10-6
Needs: Safety, offensive tackle, running back, wide receiver
Pick: Matt Elam, safety, Florida
The Bengals' plans for day one of the draft may be determined by the success, or otherwise, of their attempts to re-sign the offensive tackle Andre Smith. Head coach Marvin Lewis has expressed the hope that both sides can get a deal done in the next few days, but should negotiations fail then the team may consider a replacement with the 21st pick. Otherwise, safety remains their greatest concern, and with Vaccaro off the board, Elam is the next best player available at the position.
22) St Louis Rams (via Washington)
Pick: John Cyprien, safety, FIU
St Louis also need help at safety, and although Cyprien might be a bit of a reach here, he is unlikely to last until mid-way through the second round, when the Rams next pick. Tall, powerful and rangy, he could start right away on a young and improving defense.
23) Minnesota Vikings
Last year: 10-6
Needs: Wide receiver, defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback
Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, wide receiver, Tennessee
Receiver remains a priority for Minnesota, despite the arrival of Greg Jennings in free agency. The only question is: which one? Patterson, his Tennessee team-mate Justin Hunter and California's Keenan Allen have all been identified as potential stars but each has red flags against his name. Patterson has freakish athleticism but runs sloppy routes and his work ethic has been questioned. Hunter is inconsistent and tore his knee ligaments in 2011. Allen lacks top-end speed and has suffered significant ankle and knee injuries over the last year. Only the Vikings' war room really knows which way it's leaning on this one.
24) Indianapolis Colts
Last year: 11-5
Needs: Offensive guard, running back, outside linebacker, cornerback, wide receiver
Pick: Justin Pugh, offensive tackle, Syracuse
Pugh played at tackle for the Orangemen, but is considered undersized for that position at the pro level and should move inside to guard. The Colts must protect Luck better after allowing their quarterback to be sacked 41 times as a rookie, and Pugh can help them to do that.
25) Minnesota Vikings (via Seattle)
Pick: Manti Te'o, linebacker, Notre Dame
This could be the spot for Te'o, who for all the distractions should still be a productive run-stuffing linebacker at the NFL level. He might also find himself among friends in the Vikings locker room, since Minnesota have four Notre Dame alums on their roster.
26) Green Bay Packers
Last year: 11-5
Needs: Running back, safety, defensive end, tight end
Pick: Tyler Eifert, tight end, Notre Dame
Eddie Lacy, the best running back in this year's draft, would make perfect sense here, addressing the biggest weakness of an otherwise prolific offense. But Packers general manager Ted Thompson is a firm believer in making picks based on value, not need. Lacy is a good running back, not a great one, whereas Eifert could become an exceptional NFL tight end. The mismatch potential for a 6ft 6in receiver who weighs in at 250lbs and can run the 40 in 4.68 is terrific. Eifert's long arms and soft hands make him a nightmare to defend in the red zone and could quickly turn him into a preferred target of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
27) Houston Texans
Last year: 12-4
Needs: Wide receiver, offensive line, outside linebacker
Pick: Keenan Allen, wide receiver, California
Andre Johnson has been carrying Houston's passing game on his back for the past decade. It is time for the Texans to find another viable receiving target, not least because their No2 just bolted for Tennessee. A physical possession receiver unafraid to go over the middle of the field, Allen would provide a neat foil to Johnson on the other side.
28) Denver Broncos
Last year: 13-3
Needs: Defensive end, linebacker, running back, cornerback
Pick: Bjoern Werner, defensive end, Florida State
Werner's stock has fallen some way in recent weeks, but that should suit Denver just fine. It would be wrong to assume any rookie could immediately pick up the slack left by a player as effective as Elvis Dumervil, but Werner recorded 13 sacks for FSU last year and has the physical tools to be a success at this level, too.
29) New England Patriots
Last year: 12-4
Needs: Wide receiver, defensive back, linebacker, defensive end
Pick: Justin Hunter, wide receiver, Tennessee
New England wasted no time signing up Amendola as Wes Welker's replacement, but this team still lacks a deep threat on offense. Step forward Hunter, a player with just the sort of size (6ft 4in) and straight-line speed (he was officially clocked at 4.44 in the 40) that the Patriots have been looking for.
30) Atlanta Falcons
Last year: 13-3
Needs: Cornerback, defensive end, offensive tackle
Pick: Jamar Taylor, cornerback, Boise State
With Tony Gonzalez coming back for one more year and a soon-to-be 30-year-old Steven Jackson taking over at running back, it is no secret that the Falcons are targeting a Super Bowl now, not somewhere down the line. It is a safe bet, therefore, that they will be looking to use this pick on a player who can contribute straight away. Taylor, noted for his consistency and strong work ethic at Boise State, can be that guy.
31) San Francisco 49ers
Last year: 11-4-1
Needs: Safety, tight end
Pick: Sylvester Williams, defensive tackle, North Carolina
Boasting an incredible 13 picks in this year's draft, the 49ers are in a strong position to trade up and address the few needs they have earlier in the first round. If not, they might just take the opportunity to draft whichever player offers the best value. Sylvester Williams would be a great pick-up this late in the round, a broad-shouldered beast who can add heft to the 49ers' defensive line rotation.
32) Baltimore Ravens
Last year: 10-6
Needs: Safety, inside linebacker, offensive tackle, wide receiver
Pick: Menelik Watson, offensive tackle, Florida State
Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome has done an astute job so far of replacing the pieces his team has lost in free agency, but a few holes remain. Safety and inside linebacker might be the most pressing, but Newsome will recognise the long-term importance of addressing the left tackle position, and Watson – who was born and raised in Manchester, England – offers huge upside.
Watson only discovered the sport in 2010, but has proved a quick learner, allowing just one sack in 12 games at right tackle for the Seminoles last year. Remarkably light on his feet for a man who stands 6ft 5in and weighs 310lbs, Watson has the natural skillset to eventually play left tackle in the NFL but will require patience as he continues to learn the game. Baltimore can give him the time and instruction he needs.
Please join us for live coverage of the NFL Draft on Thursday evening
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