Oil recovers from early falls after US crude stocks rise less than forecast
Google hit with antitrust charges
The EC case against Google
UK jobless total has risen by 21k
ONS: Jobs recovery may be bottoming out
5.31pm BST
An opening rise on Wall Street and a revival in the oil price took some of the worry out of European markets, which shook off their early uncertainty. But the gains were hardly substantial and with oil producers unable to agree a cap on output, Greece back on the agenda, and the latest European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, investors remained cautious. The final scores showed:
5.00pm BST
Over to Greece and there are some signs of optimism ahead of this week’s eurogroup meeting and amid talk of a second get-together next week:
Rising hopes of completion of #Greece's 1st bailout review next wk. But main challenge - tackling unsustainable public debt - lies ahead.
EU's Dijsselbloem: Does not anticipate a Greek deal this week; IMF intends to continue on Greek aid programme: BBG
4.47pm BST
And here’s that recent jump in the oil price:
4.35pm BST
Oil is now in positive territory after its earlier falls, in the wake of the smaller than expected rise in US crude stocks.
There is also unsubstantiated talk of another meeting of producers within weeks to discuss an output freeze again, despite the failure of the weekend’s meeting to reach any agreement.
3.53pm BST
David Morrison, market strategist at Spreadco, said:
Oil bounced off its lows following the latest inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This showed a smaller-than-expected build in stockpiles, and a reduction from the previous week.
Crude was lower in early trade today on the news that a strike by Kuwaiti oil workers had come to an end. The strike began on Sunday, coinciding with the breakdown of talks between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to freeze output. There was additional downside pressure on prices due to data from the American Petroleum Institute which showed that US inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels on expectations of a 2.4 million barrel increase.
3.49pm BST
#CrudeOil pares earlier losses on slightly lower-than-expected US crude inventory build, despite end to Kuwaiti oil workers' strike. ^JC
3.34pm BST
US crude oil stocks rose by 2.1m barrels last week to 538.61m, lower than the 2.4m increase expected by analysts.
But gasoline stocks fell by 110,000 barrels compared to a forecast 1.2m decline.
3.14pm BST
After weak US housing starts data on Tuesday came signs that the market may not be that bad after all.
Existing home sales jumped 5.1% in March to a better than expected 5.33m units. Analysts had expected an increase of 3.5%, and is a vast improvement on the 7.3% drop seen in February (itself revised down from the original 7.1% decline).
Closings came back in force last month as a greater number of buyers – mostly in the Northeast and Midwest – overcame depressed inventory levels and steady price growth to close on a home. Buyer demand remains sturdy in most areas this spring and the mid-priced market is doing quite well. However, sales are softer both at the very low and very high ends of the market because of supply limitations and affordability pressures.
2.59pm BST
It’s proving to be a bit of a mixed day on the markets.
In the US the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up just 14 points in early trading, with Nasdaq and the S&P 500 also marginally higher.
2.25pm BST
Back with the speech by MPC member Ian McCafferty, and a former member is not impressed:
out of touch McCafferty
'wage growth has now started to recover since the turn of the year'
today it fell sharply..https://t.co/VwmMo47H8k
2.23pm BST
Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank may not be as exciting as the March gathering, when interest rates were cut further and its bond buying programme was expanded. That is the view of Mads Koefoed of Saxo Bank, who says:
[The] meeting of the governing council looks to be a sleepy affair with not much new coming to the surface. We may get some additional details on the corporate sector purchase programme (part of the €80bn monthly purchases), but otherwise the stage is set for Draghi to reiterate that the ECB stands ready to combat low inflation while expressing confidence in the measures announced last month.
The ECB meeting always has the potential to be a market-mover, but this particular one looks destined to be a non-event. Will Draghi surprise? Again?
2.16pm BST
On Brexit he said:
Very recently there have been some signs that increased uncertainty linked to the outcome of the EU referendum to be held on 23 June may weigh on investment in coming months, such that we may see a slight softening in GDP growth through the summer, but our central projection for demand growth remains one of ‘steady as she goes’.
2.15pm BST
Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty has said he will vote to raise rates again at some point, and there was no guarantee future rises would be gradual and limited. But he did not know when rates might rise due to the current uncertain economic outlook. In a speech at the Bank, he said:
On the basis of our current central outlook for the UK economy, I still anticipate having to return to a vote to tighten monetary policy at some stage, although I cannot offer a firm date as to when that might occur – the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of the economy over the coming months is particularly acute at the moment.
As a result, the long-standing guidance from the Monetary Policy Committee that we expect to raise interest rates in a gradual and limited fashion is not a promise – the actual path of monetary policy will, of course, depend on the performance of the economy.
2.03pm BST
Greece should not need extra measures to complete the bailout review with its lenders, according to European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, although he admitted that the EU and IMF may have differing assessments about the state of the country’s economy. Greece’s Kathimerini reports:
“We, as the Commission, are of the opinion that our figures are right and there is no need for contingency measures,” Juncker said in an interview with euro2day.gr financial website made public Wednesday.
“My impression is that the IMF does not believe in our figures,” he added.
1.47pm BST
Ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, something to cheer up president Mario Draghi.
The ECB, Draghi in particular, has been criticised by a number of German bigwigs, notably finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble although he was later defended by the Bundesbank. Now another politician has come to his defence, reports Reuters:
German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel leapt to the defense of the European Central Bank on Wednesday, saying it was time to stop bashing the bank’s president, Mario Draghi, and instead up to governments to agree on measures to boost growth.
Members of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives have complained loudly in recent weeks that the low-interest rate policies of the ECB are creating a “gaping hole” in savers’ finances as returns have dropped.
“This game of ECB bad guy - this must come to an end,” Gabriel told a news conference in Berlin, the main highlight of which became his defense of the ECB rather than the advertised focus on growth forecasts.
Gabriel is leader of Germany’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), the junior coalition partner of Merkel’s conservatives.
12.37pm BST
A quick recap.
The European Union has opened a new front against Google, accusing the software giant of harming competition in the mobile sector. Commissioner Margrethe Vestager has said Google is harming innovation by forcing mobile operators to include its applications in return for access to its Play Store, and offering financial inducements.
Related: UK unemployment rises and pay growth falls
#Crude congestion - Huge traffic jams of tankers have formed around the world pic.twitter.com/3GfYhc8STl
Related: Mitsubishi Motors admits manipulating fuel economy tests
12.08pm BST
The EC’s move has been welcomed by Fairsearch, a group of search services which brought the initial complaint against Google.
Reuters has the details:
FairSearch, the lead complainant, said Google had launched Android as an open source project, but was now hindering the development of versions that might lead to new operating systems able to compete with Android.
11.29am BST
Google has swiftly responded to the European Commission’s charges, insisting that Android is a “free and open-source operating system.”
“Our partner agreements are entirely voluntary,”
“We look forward to working with the European Commission to demonstrate the careful way we’ve designed the Android model in a way that’s good for competition and for consumers.”
11.20am BST
Here’s Reuters’ news story about the EC’s latest clash with Google, which broke an hour ago.
“A competitive mobile Internet sector is increasingly important for consumers and businesses in Europe.
“Based on our investigation thus far, we believe that Google’s behavior denies consumers a wider choice of mobile apps and services and stands in the way of innovation by other players.”
11.15am BST
The Commission’s case against Google is online, here:
11.09am BST
You cannot use Google’s Play Store to buy another app store, Vestager points out.
So it becomes quite tricky to find another shop to do your shopping.
"In Europe you can be big and dominant. The one thing you can't do is to abuse your dominance & close off competition." @vestager on Google
11.06am BST
Commissioner Vestager repeats that Google has hurt competition by forcing mobile phone makers to install its search applications and Chrome browser, in return for access to its Play Store.
If you want innovation to happen, here should be an incentive to innovate, she says.
11.02am BST
Q: Why is the Commission not concerned about Apple’s iPhone?
.@vestager vs @google: firm was giving "financial incentives" to mobile makers & network operations to kill competition #dontbeevil
10.58am BST
Yesterday, Canada closed an ant-trust investigation against Google, so why does Europe have a different view. asks Politico’s Nicholas Hirst.
Q: Is it targeting Google as part of its push to create a digital single market?
"We have no grudge against any company, we have an obligation to look at behaviour that is anticompetitive" @vestager on Google
10.54am BST
Q: How much damage has Google caused to the European economy?
It’s hard to say, Vestager replies, but the impact goes beyond simply the search area.
10.50am BST
Competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager is briefing reporters in Brussels now.
She says Google has played “unjustified restrictions” on mobile manufacturers, meaning some have chosen not to use applications from rival software makers.
Evidence that due to Google's behaviour some manufacturers have decided not to use apps provided by credible rivals @vestager
"Manufacturers not free which search engines or which browser to install on their smartphones," says @vestager of @google's Android licenses
At presser, @vestager says @google places "unjustified restrictions" on mobile manufacturers who use its #Android operating system.
10.47am BST
Statement of Objections sent to @Google on #Android operating system & applications: https://t.co/J6kEWZ14uY pic.twitter.com/zlLU5DZbsb
10.45am BST
The European Commission claims that Google is breaking EU law by forcing mobile phone makers who use Android to give preferential treatment to Google applications.
In today’s Statement of Objections, the Commission alleges that Google is:
10.41am BST
Newsflash: The European Commission has formally charged Google with breaking competition rules over its Android mobile operating system.
Competition chief Margrethe Vestager has tweeted the news (from an iPhone)
Statement of Objections to Google: It seems like you are abusing your dominant position by imposing restrictions on Andriod device makers.
10.39am BST
Here’s our economics correspondent, Phillip Inman, on today’s jobs report:
The number of people out of work in Britain increased for the first time in seven months in February.
In a signal that the referendum vote in June is having an impact on the economy, the latest labour market report showed that the unemployment total rose by 21,000 in the three months to February to 1.7 million.
Related: UK unemployment rises and pay growth falls
10.31am BST
John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, says the rise in unemployment shows that uncertainty over Britain’s EU referendum are hurting the economy:
“The UK economy has been a great job creating machine for most of the past three years, but the latest data suggest that this has levelled off over the past three months....
These latest data are consistent with other evidence that UK growth slowed somewhat during the first quarter of 2016, reflecting a more fragile global economy and uncertainty related to the EU Referendum outcome in June.
10.24am BST
31.41m people in work and 1.70m unemployed people for 3 months to Feb 2016 pic.twitter.com/RstpfD3vdS
10.17am BST
Professor Geraint Johnes of Lancaster University Management School and The Work Foundation also believes Britain’s labour market is slowing.
He says:
“Unemployment is 21000 up on the quarter, but employment is also 20000 up, with a fall in labour market inactivity.
Amongst employees in employment, there has been a fall in full-time numbers of 34000 and a rise in part-time of 11000 - suggesting something of a slowdown.
For total pay on the single month measure, this is down from 2.6% to 1.1%. The big slowdown here is in finance. Pay in construction is still steaming ahead, at 8.6% over the course of the year.
10.10am BST
Today’s report also shows the stark regional imbalances across Britain’s jobs market:
The rates of unemployment in the East, the South East & South West are less than half what it is in the North East. pic.twitter.com/evKGXX1ElV
10.06am BST
Mariano Mamertino, economist at job site Indeed, fears that the UK’s referendum on European Union membership has pushed the unemployment total up:
Mamertino says:
“Modest though it is, the increase in unemployment is a deeply worrying sign that the UK economy’s ability to create new jobs is running out of steam.
“Unemployment remains at a historically low level, but the lengthening dole queue is a warning of trouble ahead.
10.02am BST
Stephen Crabb, the new Work and Pensions Secretary, has commented on today’s jobs report (but not mentioned the jump in unemployment).
“We remain in a position of strength, with a record employment rate, wages continuing to grow steadily and three-quarters of a million vacancies available in the labour market.
“Work is essential in transforming the lives of the most disadvantaged people in society and is at the heart of our welfare reforms.
9.59am BST
The rise in unemployment in the last quarter may show that Britain’s jobs recovery is bottoming out.
Nick Palmer, statistician at the Office for National Statistics, says:
“It’s too soon to be certain but, with unemployment up for the first time since mid-2015, and employment seeing its slowest rise since that period, it’s possible that recent improvements in the labour market may be easing off.”
9.53am BST
The UK labour market appears to be ‘softening’, warns Duncan Weldon, the head of research at Resolution Group.
Overall - softer UK labour market data. Unemployment up 21k, but worth noting employment up by 20k.
V poor #UK data - Avg earnings single month pay Feb 1.1% y/y vs. Jan 2.6%; Claimant count +6.7K, LFS Employment +20K, ILO Unemployment +21K
9.51am BST
The number of people in work across Britain has also gone up.
The employment total rose by 20,000 in the last quarter, to 31.41m, and is 360,000 higher than a year ago.
9.42am BST
The number of people out of work in Britain has risen for the first time in seven months.
The latest labour market report, just released, shows that the unemployment total rose by 21,000 in the December-February quarter to 1.70 million. It’s the first rise since last May-July.
For Dec-Feb 2016 wages up 1.8% on a year earlier including bonuses, & 2.2% excluding bonuses https://t.co/DNl2KJnm0G pic.twitter.com/2jTioJwwkm
9.26am BST
Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi has just admitted that some employees have falsified data on emission tests to improve its vehicles’ fuel economy.
In an obvious echo of the Volkswagen emissions scandal, Mitsubishi says that the the false tests involves 625,000 cars, including some supplied to Nissan.
625,000 cars affected, Mitsubishi says after admitting it manipulated test data https://t.co/HMDzMDNQlC pic.twitter.com/8l7TgmjcIN
9.16am BST
The pound has dipped a little this morning, down 0.15% against the US dollar at $1.4370.
This chart from Bloomberg’s David Ingles, showing how sterling has already weakened against most major currencies this year, as the EU referendum casts a shadow of uncertainty.
#Brexit pic.twitter.com/D4BiQOQuHA
9.11am BST
There’s no escape from Brexit fears.
Overnight, eight former US Treasury secretaries have warned that Britain would become a ‘less relevant and less significant economy’ if it leaves the European Union.
Related: EU exit 'would damage UK's special relationship with US'
9.08am BST
European Commissioner Margrethe Vestager is expected to announce new antitrust charges against Google at 10.30am BST (11.30am in Belgium).
Brussels correspondents will be busy!
Brussels midday wall of hell today: 1130 Vestager (Google) presser, 12ish Stoltenberg on NATO-Russia, 12ish Avramopoulos on migrants-Turkey
9.03am BST
Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital, explains why ARM’s shares are bucking the downturn:
Arm is now shipping more than half of its chips to non-mobile markets, meaning the company’s fortunes cannot simply be linked directly to the likes of Apple anymore.
That’s just as well for Arm, as it looks like shipments of Apple’s iPhones nosedived in the first quarter. Slowing smartphone sales, particularly in China, don’t seem to be as much as a problem as many would have thought.
8.41am BST
The car industry’s test-rigging scandal may be deepening.
Mitsubishi, the Japanese automaker, has found evidence of problems with its fuel economy test results.
“One of our models was found to have failed part of a fuel economy test.”
Related: Mitsubishi Motors 'mishandled fuel economy tests'
Mitsubishi shares fall 17% after it says it will brief on misconduct in fuel economy tests https://t.co/8Nim2kmDlT pic.twitter.com/MUqKxK7mi3
8.37am BST
Europe’s main stock markets are all down this morning:
The global rally in stocks has come to a halt https://t.co/TWMD4iv67f pic.twitter.com/zv4EasmIZR
8.31am BST
Shares in ARM, the UK semiconductor maker, have jumped 2.6% after beating City expectations.
ARM reported a 14% jump in profits this morning, as it continued to outperform despite concerns that demand for Apple’s iPhone is falling.
8.22am BST
The London stock market has opened lower, with the FTSE 100 losing 26 points to 6377.
Note renewed concern about China, with stocks sharply lower on suggestions the People’s Bank of China has less stimulus appetite thanks to an improving outlook all the while worries grow about the country’s mounting bad debts.
8.07am BST
The mood in China’s stock markets has turned rather sour today.
The main Shanghai share index has fallen by 3% in a worrying late selloff, with every sector losing ground.
“Aside from continuing to support steady economic growth, future monetary policy will focus on guarding against macroeconomic risks, especially avoiding rapid growth in companies’ leverage, and will also consider the impact of increased loans on the cost of living and real estate prices.”
7.46am BST
The oil price is in retreat this morning after Kuwaiti workers ended a three day strike.
Brent crude has slumped by 2.5% already, down over $1 to $42.95 per barrel, as traders anticipate more oil flowing from Kuwait again.
The state-run Kuwait News Agency reported that the unions ended the strike by praising the country’s ruling emir, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah, and saying their action showed their “ability to affect the production process.”
The unions “entrusted his highness, the emir, (with) the protection of rights of the employees in the oil sector,” the unions said, according to KUNA. It said workers wouldn’t be disciplined for taking part in the strike.
#Oil declines as Kuwait workers end strike after 3-Day disruption. pic.twitter.com/4d0ddrm2bx
7.21am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, business and the eurozone.
Coming up today.....
Related: EU chief to charge Google over anti-competitive practices, sources say
Related: Senior Port Talbot staff ‘to announce buyout plan for Tata Steel plant’
Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6377 down 29
$DAX 10308 down 41
$CAC 4546 down 21$IBEX 8929 down 42$MIB 18356 down 92
UK companies posting numbers today - N Brown, ARM Holdings, Moneysupermarket, GKN, Travis Perkins, Punch Taverns
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