2014-09-19

FTSE 100 gains 50 points in early reading, after historic referendum fails to end Scotlands 307-year-old union with England and Wales, but pounds early rally is fading

Latest: Relief in Edinburghs financial district

Shares in Scottish firms jump

RBS ditches contingency plan

Standard Life: Well build on Scottish roots

The mood on the trading floors

Full reaction starts here

Our main Scottish liveblog

10.29am BST

A second rating agency, Fitch has followed S&P by declaring that it wont be rethinking Britains credit rating on the back of Scottish developments.

Importantly, Fitch also says that the uncertainties over handing Scotland more tax powers are relatively minor and not a key driver in its rating decision.

Fitch follow lead of S&P, say that potential Scotland tax change does not threaten UK rating, Fitch rate UK AA+ stable

10.15am BST

Spanish PM Rajoy - mindful of Catalonia - says 'we are very happy Scotland is staying with us'. Calls it positive 'for integration of EU.'

10.08am BST

The prospect of Scotland declaring independence had sent shivers through the corridors of power in Brussels. Eurocrats feared that it would encourage more regions to seek autonomy, and raise the chances of Britain leaving the European Union.

So its no surprise that outgoing European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, has welcomed the result.

I welcome the decision of the Scottish people to maintain the unity of the United Kingdom. This outcome is good for the united, open and stronger Europe that the European Commission stands for.

The European Commission welcomes the fact that during the debate over the past years, the Scottish Government and the Scottish people have repeatedly reaffirmed their European commitment.

.@BarrosoEU has a hint of #Brexit in #indyref statement: "Scottish govt & people repeatedly reaffirmed EU commitment" http://t.co/YVwO0CkYdK

9.52am BST

Rating agency Standard & Poors has said that the Scottish referendum will have no impact on the UKs AAA credit rating.

S&P is the only one of the Big Three rating firms to still give the UK a triple-A rating, with a stable outlook.

9.47am BST

Hmmmm, the relief rally may be petering out, at least in the foreign exchange markets where the pound has given up this mornings gains.

Sterling seems to be slipping a bit against the dollar - now at $1.6390

9.45am BST

And heres proof that Jennifer Telfer and her colleagues at recruitment firm Eden Scott are in upbeat mood this morning in Edinburgh:

9.41am BST

9.35am BST

Edinburgh worker Jennifer Telfer is off to buy a celebratory coffee with colleagues who cant contain their excitement, even before Katie Allen can ask them what they make of the result.

They all work for recruitment consultancy Eden Scott, which has clients in the financial sector as well as oil and gas.

Our business is dependent on the economy doing well and we have clients in Scotland and England,

My dad is a farmer and sells most of his lamb and crops around the UK, into England and Northern Ireland. Why would we want to break that up.

My dad us not a landowner, he rents his farmland. He is not full of money... It would have been terrible for farmers.

9.27am BST

People are arriving for work in Edinburghs St Andrew Square, where several fund managers and other financial businesses are based, Katie Allen reports.

Gary, who works in currency markets and only wants to give his first name, is relieved at the result of the referendum.

I wasnt particularly strong on either side. Now we can just get on with business as usual. The turmoil over the last two weeks, hopefully that will disappear now... Ive been a busy bee.

I really think Alex Salmond could have won the independence debate if he had had credible, detailed answers for the economic issues. But he didnt, so he didnt

Princes St, 8am: Spontaneous no vote Edinburgh street party not yet in evidence... pic.twitter.com/bOoj7wP2Tk

9.21am BST

Back to Scotland. And all is very quiet in St. Andrew Square in Edinburgh where many of the citys financial institutions are based.

Markets had begun to price out the chance of a yes vote, so any impact of the result should be relatively muted, at least when compared with the alternative.

A move to English votes for English laws would introduce additional complexity into the UK political structure and might add an additional risk premium to gilt markets, given that the next government will still have to undertake a programme of fiscal consolidation.

9.13am BST

Breaking away from Scotland briefly, pharmaceuticals firm GlaxoSmithKline is to pay £297m to the Chinese government over bribery charges.

The fine was imposed by the Changsha Intermediate Peoples Court in Hunan Province, which ruled that GSK China Investment had offered money or property to non-government personnel in order to obtain improper commercial gains, and been found guilty of bribing non-government personnel.

Reaching a conclusion in the investigation of our Chinese business is important, but this has been a deeply disappointing matter for GSK. We have and will continue to learn from this. GSK has been in China for close to a hundred years and we remain fully committed to the country and its people. We will continue to expand access to innovative medicines and vaccines to improve their health and well-being.

We will also continue to invest directly in the country to support the governments health care reform agenda and long-term plans for economic growth.

GlaxoSmithKline fined £297m by Chinese government over bribery scandal. http://t.co/HKhvaTBScq Story to follow

9.03am BST

And we have confirmation that the oil industry is relieved that the uncertainty - businesss perennial bugbear - is over.

Royal Dutch Shell CEO, Ben van Beurden, says:

Shell welcomes the decision by the people of Scotland to remain within the UK, which reduces the operating uncertainty for businesses based in Scotland,

Shell will continue to work closely with both the UK and Scottish governments to help the industry deliver vital energy supplies through investment in the UKs oil and gas resources. We look forward to continuing our proud association with Scotland.

9.00am BST

Financial services group Alliance Trust has joined the ranks of Scottish-based firms pledging not to move south:

8.56am BST

The FTSE 100 has disappointed those who expected an early surge following the no vote, up just 35 points or 0.5% at the moment.

But it must be remembered the index is a global one, reflecting more than just UK concerns. To illustrate that, the leading fallers in the index are mining companies, hit by falling metal prices on concerns about the outlook for China and the prospect for US interest rate rises. Nick Fletcher has details here.

8.55am BST

David Camerons pledge this morning for more devolution of powers across the UK, not just to Scotland, could have major implications for fiscal policy, suggests political editor, Patrick Wintour:

On face of it, Cameron has said tax will be English issue so Scottish MPs excluded from budget and Scottish based MP cannot be chancellor.

8.48am BST

Accountants at BDO are speculating that Britain could soon have differential tax rates, if more powers are handed to Scotland.

Tax experts at BDO point out that promises on devolution could lead to Scottish businesses having different tax rates to rest of UK

8.42am BST

Scotsie20 is broadly positive first thing! RBS up 3.5% #reliefrally #indyref pic.twitter.com/gfqQOuLpiT

8.41am BST

With the referendum officially won by the no side, the City is relatively calm.

Good news for RBS and Lloyds is bad news for Pickfords, which presumably wont be getting a large order to move executives from the banks south now.

8.37am BST

My colleagues in Scotland have launched a new liveblog covering all the developments following the independence referendum:

8.32am BST

Business for Scotland, which has pushed for a yes vote, is understandable disappointed by the referendum result, but determined to press on.

Chairman Tony Banks says:

Huge credit due to the Scottish people who have, by and large, conducted the biggest political debate there is with good grace, good manners and some sparkling wit.

The legacy of this campaign is a thoroughly politically engaged and active population the likes of which Scotland hasnt seen in my lifetime.

8.29am BST

Spains stock market is also rallying this morning, as the Scottish result dents Catalonias hopes of independence.

The IBEX index of the 35 biggest companies on the Madrid stock market is up by 156 points, or 1.5%, to 11147. All but one share has gained ground.

IBEX up 1.7% - Spain rather more relieved than the UK about the Scottish vote !

8.20am BST

Heres Nick Fletchers opening market report highlighting how Scottish=linked companies are leading the FTSE 100 higher, albeit not as high as first predicted.

8.20am BST

Heres the FTSE 100 early risers, led by RBS:

8.10am BST

here's a snapshot of the key stocks moving in the opening minute #ftse #RBHS #Weir #Lloyds pic.twitter.com/5FQrLDvksH

8.06am BST

Companies with Scottish links have moved sharply higher in early trading as the stock market gave the thumbs up to the outcome of the referendum vote, write Nick Fletcher.

With the financial sector a key area for Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland is leading the way and has risen 12.7p or 3.5% to 369.9p, Lloyds Banking Group is up 1.33p to 77.20p or 1.8%, Standard Life has added 6.4p to 422.1p or 1.6%.

8.01am BST

The London stock market is open....and the FTSE 100 has jumped by 51 points, or 0.75%, to 6870 in very early trading.

Full details to follow.....

7.59am BST

Clydesdale Bank has also announced that nothings going to change:

Australian owner of Clydesdale bank says "business as usual" and "has strong roots in Scotland"

7.58am BST

Many (but not all) business chiefs had warned that independence could have pushed up costs and created painful uncertainty, so there is a collective sigh of relief across the business community this morning.

Thats the CBIs take, anyway. Heres John Cridland, their Director-General:

Business has always believed that the Union is best for creating jobs, raising growth and improving living standards, and welcomes that the people of Scotland want to play an integral role in this internationally successful partnership.

As the debate now moves to the question of further devolution, it is important that it does not undermine the strength of the single internal market and it is in the best interests of citizens living in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as those in Scotland.

7.54am BST

#FTSE100 called +70pts at 6885 as markets prefer Scotland the not so brave and prospect of looser global monetary policy for longer

7.54am BST

There will be a huge sense of relief around the North Sea oil and gas industry that Scotland have opted to remain part of the UK.

There is nothing companies fear more than political uncertainty given the average investment offshore is very large and the time scales very long.

A yes vote could have led to a protracted row over where exactly the boundary lay offshore between England and Scotland <corrected>. It would have also led to worries about different tax systems and even safety regulations north and south. But the oil and gas industry may be a small winner out of the referendum. It has often felt its financial contribution to the UK economy has been overlooked.

7.47am BST

The word on the trading floors is that shares in Scottish-based firms like RBS will jump by at least 2% in a few minutes.

Following 'No' vote: RBS (RBS LN), Lloyds (LLOY LN) seen up 2-3%, SSE (SSE LN) and Weir Group (WEIR LN) seen up 3%

7.40am BST

Standard Life now keen on Scotland again: "We are proud of our Scottish heritage and will continue to build our success from these roots."

7.37am BST

Edinburgh-based Standard Life has issued a statement, saying it will consider the implications of any changes for our customers and other stakeholders in our business of future constitutional changes, following the referendum.

It has also pledged to keep building on its Scottish roots, suggesting that it will not be moving operations out of Scotland now.

We fully respect the decision of the Scottish people.

We recognise that further constitutional change is very likely following the clear result of the referendum. We will consider the implications of any changes for our customers and other stakeholders in our business to ensure their interests are represented and protected. As a large company based in Scotland, Standard Life is ready to contribute to this process.

7.31am BST

The main impact of a no vote has probably already been factored into the stock market, according to Tom Stevenson of Fidelity Personal Investing,but UK shares still look attractive in comparative terms. He said:

The ongoing uncertainty will provide something of a drag on the UK market in the weeks and months ahead but it comes against a relatively positive backdrop. The London market has materially underperformed the US, for example, since the financial crisis and it now enjoys a significant valuation advantage over Wall Street.

In a low interest-rate environment, equity income will continue to be an attractive source of yield for investors. With the FTSE 100 yielding 3.5%, large UK shares are reasonably well underpinned. I would expect larger companies to outperform mid- and small-cap stocks in an uncertain environment, even if some of the more domestically-focused stocks enjoy a short-term bounce. Although bonds look less attractive than equities, due to their historically low yields, the increase in market uncertainty may increase the attraction of fixed income investments.

7.26am BST

Royal Bank of Scotland has announced that it will certainly not be moving its head office out of Edinburgh.

The announcement we made about moving our registered head office to England was part of a contingency plan to ensure certainty and stability for our customers, staff and shareholders should there be a Yes vote.

That contingency plan is no longer required. Following the result it is business as usual for all our customers across the UK and RBS.

7.20am BST

Lloyds Banking Group has declared that it is committed to maintaining a significant presence in Scotland.

It says:

The group is proud of its strong Scottish heritage and is committed to having a significant presence in Scotland. We remain fully focused on supporting households and businesses in Scotland as well as right across the rest of the UK.

Lloyds - "We remain fully focused on supporting households and businesses in Scotland as well as right across the rest of the UK.

7.16am BST

Were still expecting shares to surge when the London stock market opens, in an hours time.

Spreadbetters are calling the FTSE 100 up over 1%, or 75 points.

Clients had spent yesterday steadily building up long positions in sterling and the FTSE as they bet that cooler heads would prevail and the union would remain intact.

7.14am BST

David Cameron is trying to calm those fears over another vote in Scotland.

Hes giving an official statement now, saying the matter has been settled for a generation. Full coverage in our liveblog.

Cameron: "Now the debate has been settled for a generation or, as Alex Salmond has said, perhaps for a life time. No debates, no reruns."

7.06am BST

Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, said UK investors would welcome a reduction in the uncertainty of recent months, writes Nick Fletcher.

The boss of Scotlands largest fund manager - who had tried to remain neutral during the campaign - said Scotland could look forward to a prosperous future now the vote was over. But both sides now needed to come together and move forward.

Scotland has long been a world leader in business sectors such as oil and gas, whisky and investment and the task now is to grow the rest of the economy with the strong support of politicians of all parties.

7.05am BST

John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, isnt impressed by Westminsters handling of the independence vote.

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he says:

Our politicians have not been great poker players in a high-stakes game.

The people of Scotland have spoken. Their historic decision to remain part of the United Kingdom will be a relief to many businesspeople and a disappointment to others, but it was a decision for the Scottish people alone to make.

The companies I speak to are clear that this cannot simply be the first in a series of referenda, until one side or the other gets the result that it wants. Business and investment prospects across the UK would be deeply hurt by a Quebec-style neverendum a lesson that politicians must heed.

7.02am BST

The anxiety about currency is over. Lloyds, RBS, Standard Life will remain registered in Scotland. Contingency plans back on the shelf.

7.02am BST

Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank in London sends us his early reaction to the vote.

He sees implications for rate hike bets in the UK and in the very short term relief in financial markets.

Clarke says:

All in all, the no outcome comes as a relief to the market, though there will be some residual fine tuning left to run once the dust settles. The reduced uncertainty is likely to see the market bring forward the timing of the first BoE rate hike again, though within reason. Inflation has been far lower than expect since the August Inflation Report. Depending on how the pound exchange rate moves in the coming days, this could lead to another downward revision to the Banks inflation projection. In turn that should prevent market expectations of a hike coming too far forward. We still expect the first move to come in February.

While there is likely to be speculation that since it was such a close outcome, another referendum cant be far away, it is worth stressing that the SNP pledged during the campaign not to have another poll for a generation. When pressed on timing, the Scottish First Minister suggested that this meant around 20 years. As a guide, there was a 15 year gap between the first Quebec referendum and the re-run. This removes a considerable amount of the uncertainty in the aftermath of the referendum, but there is plenty of unfinished business that will have to be hammered out in the coming weeks and months.

6.58am BST

Despite this mornings results, the issue of Scottish independence hasnt vanished for ever, says Bob Parker, senior advisor at Credit Suisse.

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he says:

One has to recognise that it is the mandate of the SNP to continue to argue for Scottish Independence...Theyre not going to change their spots.

6.46am BST

David Bloom, head of foreign exchange strategy at HSBC, has been at his desk all night in Canary Wharf, my colleague Jill Treanor reports.

Sterling had nerves of steel through the night, he said, pointing to the moment just before 11pm when pollster Peter Kellner, who runs YouGov, said it was 99% certain that it was a victory for no.

Asia was open and then people got in super early as well,

6.43am BST

Berenberg Banks Rob Wood also warns that there are a lot of unknowns swirling around the UK now, including its membership of the European Union:

That is the main point after a campaign in which London felt compelled to promise Scotland more powers at virtually the last minute to break the pro-independence momentum. What is certain is that the UK will change materially as a result of this referendum despite the no vote to independence.

The uncertainty over Scotlands position and over the position of the UK in Europe will not go away. The risks are worth watching carefully indeed.

6.39am BST

The Bank of England is not planning to make a statement following the referendum result, a spokesman says.

6.38am BST

The Institute of Directors has struck a cautious note.

With the immediate question of Scotlands future is resolved, attention turns to the new powers that Edinburgh was promised by Westminster leaders in the final days of the campaign.

There can be no doubt that many businesses will breathe a sigh of relief that the prospect of a contentious currency debate and prolonged economic negotiations have been avoided, and yet we know that significant changes are still on the cards.

The main party leaders have made clear their intention to devolve further power to the Scottish Parliament, and over time this will give the people of Scotland more of a say over how to manage their economy.

6.27am BST

The lights have been burning all night at the Bank of England.

The governor, Mark Carney, had flown back from the G20 meeting in Cairns, Australia, in time for the referendum result.

Lights burning at @bankofengland. Sigh of relief from Mark Carney? Some sleep having just got back from G20 in Aust pic.twitter.com/YOoYRLpvHR

6.19am BST

The pound has gained ground against all major currencies this morning, as this chart shows:

The Currency Question. Sterling higher against all G10 currencies since yesterday morning - pic.twitter.com/T5yjIDXEKE

6.17am BST

Brenda Kelly of IG index confirms that a relief rally is in the making in UK markets, driven by companies who would have faced disruption if Scotland had chosen independence.

Key areas to watch will be the banks such as RBS and Lloyds, as well as big Scottish firms like Standard Life, Aberdeen Asset Management and Weir Group. Investors in these firms will be relieved that management will be able to devote their time to business performance, rather than fretting about contract changes or headquarters moves.

Meanwhile, the capital flight from the pound and Gilts should see a reversal too, thanks to the decision of Scotland to remain with the 307-year old union.

6.13am BST

Shares in London are going to jump when trading begins, in two hours time.

The futures market suggests the FTSE 100 index will leap by 1.2%, or 80 points, to 6900.

6.10am BST

Many city workers came in especially early today, and some even worked all night, in case the referendum delivered a shock victory for the yes side.

But as the results came in, they pushed the pound higher as it became clear that the union was safe.

Sterling reacts to emerging No vote #indyref pic.twitter.com/NKsKzftVGm

6.00am BST

Good morning. Relief is sweeping the financial markets after Scotland voted to remain within the United Kingdom.

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