Brent crude routed to below $72 per barrel, the lowest level since August 2010, and US crude has hit $69 per barrel.
Summary: Oil hammered after Opec decision
Opec leaves production unchanged <- highlights start here
In other news:
Greek PM: Bailout exit could be delayed
Photos: Greek protests
6.52pm GMT
I’m going to pause now, as the oil price seems to have stabilised after both main benchmarks tumbled 6.3% to new four-year lows.
Brent crude is hovering around $72.80, down $5 today. And US crude has marked Thanksgiving by losing $4.60 to $69.05.
6.38pm GMT
Late news from Vienna -- Venezuela’s foreign minister had told Latin American TV station Telesur that a fair oil price would be $100/barrel.
Rafael Ramirez (who stormed out of the Opec meeting) added that lower oil prices will hurt the fracking industry too.
6.35pm GMT
Crude oil falls below $68 after OPEC meeting. pic.twitter.com/ws2GfT5fwf http://t.co/M1CLNxsY2b ~ via http://t.co/VS8RO1tb5N
6.34pm GMT
The slide in the oil price is bad news for Britain’s North Sea industry.
And with civil servants racing to finalise the details of next week’s Autumn Statement, energy companies are urging the Treasury to offer more tax breaks to help them.
6.21pm GMT
Citi, the Wall Street bank, has come up with four theories to explain Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to cut oil production.
One is that Saudi’s finances are quite strong today, so it can take the hit of lower revenues. Another is that the Kingdom’s top officials are focused on other matters, such as the health of the Royal Family.
Citi's theories on why Saudi Arabia didn't agree to an Opec cut. pic.twitter.com/gSxDe6cc0v
5.37pm GMT
Opec has effectively fired the starting gun on a new price war in the energy industry.
And the target is America’s shale industry, as Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy explains (via Reuters).
“We interpret this as Saudi Arabia selling the idea that oil prices in the short term need to go lower, with a floor set at $60 per barrel, in order to have more stability in years ahead at $80 plus.
“In other words, it should be in the interest of OPEC to live with lower prices for a little while in order to slow down development projects in the United States.”
5.07pm GMT
I think it might be helpful to recap.
....the Conference concurred that stable oil prices – at a level which did not affect global economic growth but which, at the same time, allowed producers to receive a decent income and to invest to meet future demand – were vital for world economic wellbeing.
“We’re going to produce 30m [million barrels per day] for the first half of the year
We have no target price, we are looking for a fair price.”
Sec Gen of OPEC Abdullah Al-Badry of Libya: "The price decline does not mean we should rush to do something...we dont want to panic."
“Those [Opec] producers that have been hardest hit by the oil price drop have been persuaded that an output cut may have been ineffective and that the only way to counter the surge in US shale oil production is to allow lower prices to pare back supply over time.”
New record low for the Ruble as oil price slides.
5.01pm GMT
Today’s decision was (like much Opec policy) driven by the wishes of Saudi Arabia, explains Alistair McCaig of IG.
OPEC has decided to keep oil production unchanged and the spot oil markets have subsequently collapsed as the template of oversupply and weak demand keeps the pressure on energy prices. The sound bites that came out before this meeting all inferred that Saudi Arabia was happy to maintain its market share.
Historically, when it comes to altering supply levels, it has fallen on the Saudi’s shoulders to make the changes, and without their leadership few OPEC members were likely to go it alone.
4.30pm GMT
“Opec just declared war on everyone-including itself”, says the Wall Street Journal’s Liam Denning.
Today’s decision not to cut production means oil will remain below $100/barrel for several years to come, he adds. More here (£)
4.22pm GMT
Crumbs -- Brent crude has plunged even further, hitting $72.74 per barrel.
That means it has fallen by five dollars per barrel today, a massive slump for the oil price.
4.17pm GMT
Hello Nymex. $69.39 #OPEC #oil @CNBC @CNBCWorld
4.15pm GMT
The oil price tumble is turning into a rout, with prices hitting fresh four-year lows as I type.
Brent crude has now fallen through the $74/barrel mark to just $73.41 after Opec’s decision.
Oil producers hammered by $74 oil. Only UAE, Qatar, Kuwait breaking even. Most others in trouble, some serious: pic.twitter.com/ypfusbCSWO
4.06pm GMT
Some very experienced analysts at meeting say that OPEC and Saudi have decided the cure for oversupply is lower prices not prod cuts.
4.05pm GMT
Even Opec is pointing out that a lower oil price is good for consumers:
OPEC sec gen asks why we are all complaining about OPEC supply. Says it's cheaper for us to fill up car. Apparently that's good for hacks.
Reminder: the oil price falling is not "a risk", it is a tax cut to everyone who isn't a Russian oligarch or Arab sheikh.
3.57pm GMT
The oil price is hitting new lows as Opec’s decision reverberates though the markets. Brent crude just hit $74.00 per barrel, the lowest since August 2010.
Many US oil traders are on holiday today, for Thanksgiving, so there could be more volatility tomorrow when they return to their desks.
Brent now at $74. Market not liking decision and that's with American closed for thanksgiving. Could be bloodbath tomorrow
3.54pm GMT
It’s doubly official now -- Opec has just published a statement, confirming that it will keep producing 30 million barrels of oil per day.
Opec says today’s meeting in Vienna agreed that it is “vital for world economic wellbeing” that the oil price is stable, at a level that allows producers to make a “decent income” without hurting global growth.
Accordingly, in the interest of restoring market equilibrium, the Conference decided to maintain the production level of 30.0 mb/d, as was agreed in December 2011. As always, in taking this decision, Member Countries confirmed their readiness to respond to developments which could have an adverse impact on the maintenance of an orderly and balanced oil market.
3.46pm GMT
Our energy editor, Terry Macalister, is tweeting the key points from Opec’s press conference in Vienna now:
Secretary General of OPEC Abdullah Al-Badry of Libya: "We are not sending any signal to anyone. We just try to have a fair price (of oil)."
Secretary General of OPEC, Abdullah Al-Badry of Libya: "We (OPEC) have no target price" for oil.
3.45pm GMT
Abdalla Salem El-Badri, the secretary general of Opec, has insisted that today’s decision is no reason to “panic”.
I’ve taken this quote from fastFT:
[The recent price fall] doesn’t mean we have to rush and see where the market will settle; we want to see the market, how the market behaves.
3.41pm GMT
It appears Opec has decided to leave production levels alone for the next six months, according to Reuters:
This looks like being OPEC's oil output until mid-2015. OPEC delegate tells @Reuters its next meeting will be in June.
3.35pm GMT
It’s official! Opec’s spokesman has just read out a statement in Vienna, confirming that the oil group has decided to leave production targets at the current level of 30 million barrels of crude oil per day.
3.34pm GMT
Share prices in oil producers are sliding too following these reports that Opec has left production levels unchanged.
They are dominating the list of biggest fallers on the FTSE 100:
3.29pm GMT
The Russian ruble has tumbled too, underlining that Russia is likely to suffer from Opec’s decision not to cut production levels.
It’s down by 1.5% to around 48 rubles to the US dollar.
Rouble tumbles 1.5% after Opec refrains from cutting production. It will be a tough few months for #Russia and other #oil producers
3.23pm GMT
This slump in the oil price is a boost to households and many businesses; petrol stations should pass at least some of the saving on.
UK CPI below 1% (and a letter from Carney explaining why) now looking rather likely.
3.12pm GMT
New York crude oil, the other measure of the oil price, has also fallen sharply in the last few minutes.
Nymex has shed almost 3% to $71.55 per barrel, the lowest since August 2010.
3.11pm GMT
Nigeria confirms that Opec will continue to produce 30 million of barrels of crude per day:
NIGERIAN OIL MINISTER: OPEC TO MAINTAIN PRODUCTION LEVELS - MNI
3.07pm GMT
This chart shows how Brent crude tumbled to a fresh four-year low a few moments ago, as Opec’s meeting broke up without an agreement to cut production levels:
Brent intraday: pic.twitter.com/FpEZ0ZlHeP
3.05pm GMT
The Kuwaiti oil minister has confirmed that Opec resisted calls to cut production at today’s meeting in Vienna.
Ali Saleh al-Omair said “no change” to reporters as he left today’s meeting, Reuters and Dow Jones both report.
3.01pm GMT
OPEC Keeps #Oil Production Target Unchanged at 30 million Barrel per day.
2.57pm GMT
Another Reuters flash: Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi was asked whether Opec has decided not to cut, replied “that is right”.
And this is sending the Brent crude oil price falling sharply, hitting $74.75 per barrel. That’s a new four-year low.
#Brent #crude falls $1.50 on #OPEC announcement RO pic.twitter.com/vRVyC7KNrY
2.53pm GMT
More newsflashes on Reuters... Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has apparently said that Opec has taken a “great decision”, but hasn’t actually said what the deal is!
2.50pm GMT
Newsflash on Reuters: the Brent crude price is weakening on reports that the Opec meeting has ended....
BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS LOSSES TOWARDS $76 A BARREL AFTER REPORTS OPEC MEETING HAS ENDED, NO COMMENT FROM MINISTERS - RTRS
2.40pm GMT
Economics editor Larry Elliott has reached back into history to explain how Opec established such a grip on the oil market, and why the cartel is still influential:
Here’s his conclusion:
There are winners and losers from falling oil prices just as there are winners and losers from tumbling interest rates. Producing nations suffer while consuming nations benefit. The net effect, though, should be positive for growth since producers are more likely to save than consumers.
There are two provisos, however. The first is that lower prices stick. The second is that falling oil prices do not lead to a period of outright deflation from which countries find it difficult to escape.
2.07pm GMT
The Economist has produced a neat chart, showing how Opec’s share of the energy market is expected to fall over the next six years:
OPEC’s poorer members, whose oil is generally costly to extract, want to cut output to prop up prices—now at four-year lows. Richer ones, who have lower costs, prefer to keep pumping and maintain their market share.
1.56pm GMT
Still no news from Vienna, as Opec members continue to talk...
The wait goes on. Still no decision from OPEC meeting. pic.twitter.com/Y2p4lBw2lw
1.44pm GMT
Today’s Greek anti-austerity protests are among the biggest “since the huge rallies back in 2011”, according to Odysseus Trivalas, president of the civil servants’ union ADEDY.
“I think we sent a very strong message to the government and the Troika that the Greek people cannot make any more sacrifices, or tolerate any more behind-the-scenes exchanges of the kind they are now clearly preparing,”
1.30pm GMT
The news of Germany’s falling inflation rate may have driven even more money into eurozone government bonds.
The price of French 10-year bonds just spiked, driving down the yield (interest rate) on the bonds to below 1% for the first time ever.
1.13pm GMT
#Japanification continues: German headline inflation continues to edge lower to 0.6% YoY in Nov, lowest since 2010. pic.twitter.com/xJ2v4pbHip
German #inflation falls to 0.6% in November (0.8% in October), lowest level in nearly 5 years http://t.co/Yrm7kLYO5J
As German employment just reached another record-high in October, this drop in inflation should be inflationary rather than deflationary.
Just think of Draghi’s famous words “with low inflation, you can buy more stuff”. At the current juncture, price expectations of both consumers and producers remain solidly anchored in Germany.
12.57pm GMT
Another shot from Vienna this morning:
12.47pm GMT
This chart explains how Opec’s muscle has been weakened by the rise of rival energy sources, such as shale:
#OPEC's dilemma, very nicely shown by Christoph Ruehl / ADIA #oil pic.twitter.com/7HUpSdYskE
12.23pm GMT
Time for a recap.
As we wait for OPEC, a reminder how much and how quickly oil has fallen. -34% since June: pic.twitter.com/HcUxJ2sZSE
The sheer magnitude of the moves in oil recently have led many analysts to expect a cut to supply, as global growth concerns added to increased US production, and the rise of other hydrocarbons like shale gas pressurise the demand for traditional black gold.
Failure to cut supply today will lead to further downward pressure on Brent and Nymex.
If OPEC fails to agree output cuts in oil, they will most likely see the price fall further: http://t.co/NFHNLNqpYB pic.twitter.com/176G0YgHoG
11.55am GMT
ECB chief Mario Draghi is now addressing students at the University of Helsinki.
The first is that all euro area countries need to be able to thrive independently, the second is that euro area countries need to invest more in other mechanisms to share the cost of shocks.
Draghi: If there are parts of the euro area worse off inside the Union, doubts may grow about whether they might ultimately have to leave
11.35am GMT
The deadlock over Greece’s bailout exit comes as unions hold a general strike in protest at the job cuts and other austerity measures demanded by its lenders.
#Greece: Massive general strike protest #27ngr pic.twitter.com/NHFvJcscaS
No to extra taxes, unemployment, bailout agreements. Some of the messages being read on banners #27ngr #rbnews pic.twitter.com/qX4ArPz9f6
#27ngr protesters start marching to Syntagma sq. I see unions, antiracist & left-wing groups #rbnews pic.twitter.com/8yRuAxmYHd
“GSEE is resisting the dogmatic obsession of the government and the troika with austerity policies and tax hikes,”
11.09am GMT
There is also speculation in Greece that next February’s elections to replace outgoing president, Karolos Papoulias, could be brought forward in an attempt to ease the political uncertainty gripping the country.
Former foreign minister Dora Baokoyannis told VIMA FM radio this morning that Greece was experiencing “a deep political, not economic crisis” that was now threatening to endanger any progress it had made.
“The picture of instability and uncertainty is at the expense of the Greek economy with every day that passes.
The process for the election of the president of the republic should start now, and parliament should not close for Christmas … we have a deep political crisis. Not an economic crisis.”
11.04am GMT
Just in, Greece’s deputy prime minister Evangelos Venizelos has told reporters that the country’s bailout programme could be extended by a few weeks.
“The European [side of the] programme expires on 31st December.
The aim is for the last installment [of aid] to have been released by the 31st. If for technical reasons some procedures have not been completed, there could be an extension but not a new memorandum [bailout accord].”
“A new programme means a new loan. That cannot happen.”
We told them, these things cannot happen, and are not necessary. They are circulating scenarios about prolonging the memorandum [bailout accord].
We are saying no to a six-month extension.”
#Greece 10-year bond yield climbs 17bps to 8.40%, following failed talks between the Greek gov't and the Troika. | #euro
#Greece 10 year 8.48% pic.twitter.com/jTk3ByAiDJ
10.47am GMT
The reluctance of many Opec members to agree an output cut shows that the cartel’s grip on the industry has weakened, says Miswin Mahesh, oil analyst at Barclays.
10.38am GMT
Shares in oil producers have fallen this morning, tracking the selloff in crude (Brent is currently down 2.5% at $75.77 per barrel)
OPEC’s (likely) reluctance to cut output today has knocked 3.5% off Petrofac’s share price, 1.5% off BG Group and 1.3% off Royal Dutch Shell.
10.25am GMT
Elsewhere in the markets, the yield (or interest rate) on a flock of European government bonds is tumbling again to new record lows.
This flow of money into eurozone sovereign debt has driven the yield on French 10-year bonds down to just 1%.
Another day, another record-low 10Y yield in Germany, Austria, Belgium, France, Finland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal
Euro zone countries' bond yields below 1% Germany 0.71% Finland 0.79% Netherlands 0.83% Austria 0.86% Belgium 0.95% France 1% and falling
9.56am GMT
Another photo of Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi (shaking hands, on the left) before the press pack were driven from the room.
Naimi looking relaxed at #opec pic.twitter.com/O1fUlrA8ak
9.54am GMT
Today’s Opec meeting has officially started, according to a newsflash from Reuters.
9.48am GMT
Venezuela’s foreign minister, Rafael Ramirez, took a swipe at America’s burgeoning shale industry as he arrived at the Opec meeting, suggesting it should be reined in.
Ramirez said (via Reuters):
“The U.S. is producing in a very, very bad manner. The shale oil, I mean it is a disaster from the point of view of climate change...”
OPEC: Dow Jones - Venezuela has proposed OPEC cut similar to Oran 2008 decision when OPEC cut output ceiling by 2.2 million b/d
9.38am GMT
Jonah Hull, Al Jazeera’s man at the OPEC briefing, shows that oil ministers have taken their seats in Vienna and are being interrogated by the press....
The #OPEC game of grab-an-oil-minister is underway in Vienna. No comment from the Saudis. pic.twitter.com/47rdUeIOnx
#OPEC breakfast. This is what you get when the oil price falls below $80. pic.twitter.com/4rhmCBIUJd
9.30am GMT
Back in Vienna, Saudi oil minister Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi wasn’t keen to engage with the press as the OPEC meeting started.
“I’ve made enough comments”, he said, according to this video clip from CNBC’s Rose Michelson:
Saudi oil min Ali Al-Naimi refuses to answer any questions ahead of #OPEC meeting https://t.co/b9u9SqIrfT
9.24am GMT
Day over? *DRAGHI SAYS HE 'WON'T ELABORATE ON POSSIBLE UPCOMING MEASURES'
9.21am GMT
The text of ECB chief Mario Draghi’s speech to the Helsinki parliament has been released.
No show-stoppers; Draghi will tell students that monetary policy can’t do all the “heavy lifting” on its own, and repeated his call for a “comprehensive strategy” to put the eurozone economy back on track.
9.20am GMT
Italian business confidence has taken another hit this month, as the country’s recession hurts the sector.
The monthly index of corporate morale has fallen to 87.7 this month, from 89.1 in October (100 is the long-term average). There is one encouraging sign - manufacturers are slightly less gloomy.
9.09am GMT
Just in: Germany’s unemployment total had fallen again as its labour market shrugs off the economy’s slowdown.
German unemployment down 14k in November. Jobless rate steady at new record low of 6.6% (Oct rev from 6.7% to 6.6%) http://t.co/IB241xZiZT
8.58am GMT
The oil price is sliding rapidly to fresh four-year lows, as traders come to the conclusion that OPEC will agree not to cut output at today’s meeting in Vienna.
Media scrum building ahead of the arrival of opec ministers. pic.twitter.com/z7J9MyuZrk
Now in the media holding pen (the stairwell) before start of opec meeting pic.twitter.com/fZ5uzDO77f
8.54am GMT
Today’s OPEC meeting is a “watershed moment”, reckons Marc Ostwald, City analyst at ADM Investor Services, especially if the cartel declines to slice output.
He adds:
The signals from the various members appear to suggests that the Gulf oil producers (Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia) are set to reject demands from other members (and indeed Russia and Mexico) for an output cut, because they appear to be more concerned about “guarding market share”, which in turn will leave even more questions about the precarious budget positions of the other members.
8.45am GMT
We have worrying inflation data from the eurozone too, which could increase the pressure on the ECB to launch a sovereign bond-buying programme.
Spain’s annual consumer prices index has fallen to minus 0.4%, down from -0.1% in October.
Deflation accelerated in Spain in November. EU HICP minus 0.5% y-o-y. pic.twitter.com/VCXArwz2mw
#German #CPI - Saxony CPI first out: -0.1% m/m vs. expected Flat, 0.7% y/y vs. Oct 1.0%, ex-energy Flat m/m
8.25am GMT
Brent crude has experienced a dramatic slide; down from $115 per barrel in late June to just $76 today, as this chart from Reuters’ Jamie McGeever shows:
As we wait for OPEC, a reminder how much and how quickly oil has fallen. -34% since June: pic.twitter.com/HcUxJ2sZSE
8.14am GMT
JP Morgan analysts reckon the oil price will soon fall below $70 without Opec action; other analysts have suggested we could even see $60/barrel.
JPM expects OPEC not to reach an agreement on production cuts. In this event, oil prices will move down, possibly below $70/bbl for Brent.
8.13am GMT
Singapore-based Daniel Ang of Phillip Capital agrees that the “consensus” reached by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates means no output cuts today:
He told Reuters:
“Dreams of rising oil prices [have been] smashed with pre-OPEC meeting sentiments. Brace yourselves for lower oil prices.”
8.08am GMT
Several other oil ministers have also indicated that Opec will resist pressure to cut output at today’s meeting.
UAE oil minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui told the FT that the market will, eventually, fix the oversupply in the oil market.
“I don’t think we should panic. There is nothing that should cause us to panic.”
"We have to live either $80 or with $60," says Kuwait oil minister: Oil prices fall to 4-year lows as OPEC pro... http://t.co/xjxonNHx7c
8.02am GMT
The oil price has hit a fresh four-year low this morning, as speculation grows that producers will not agree output cuts at the crucial OPEC meeting in Vienna today.
Brent crude oil slipped by over $1 per barrel, or 1.5%, to $76.58, extending the sell-off that began five months ago and has shaken the commodities market.
Crude oil is trading at another four-year low this morning, as confirmation is beginning to emerge from the OPEC meeting that there will be no output cuts announced later today.
7.55am GMT
Welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone.
On the agenda today.... Members of the Opec oil cartel are meeting in Vienna today; despite recent price falls, they are thought unlikely to cut production. More on that in a moment.
German CPI, Draghi talking, holiday volumes and Opec could make European markets sporty today
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Campylobacter rates tend to rise in the summer and averages similar to 75% found by the European Food Safety Authority in 2010 are expected.
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